Forrester EA Council Roundtable 29/4/10 (Short)
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A brief introduction to futures thinking and tools and how they can enhance creativity and energise innovation.
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Forrester EA Council Roundtable 29/4/10 (Short)
- 1. Change, Creativity, Innovation, Forrester Leadership Boards Enterprise Architecture Council Innovating by Raising Awareness 29 April 2010 Dr. Wendy L. Schultz Futures Creation Enhancing Innovation with Foresight
- 2. Did you anticipate your users’ needs during this?
- 3. Agenda, 29 April • Foresight: 5 Key Activities • Horizon Scanning • “3 Horizons” • Creativity, Innovation, and Foresight • Identify and Monitor Change: Trend Wall • Futures, Creativity, and Innovation Tools
- 4. Foresight: 4 Modes & 5 Key Activities 4 Thinking 5 Foresight Activities: Modes: Identify and monitor change; Logical Map and critique impacts; Creative Imagine alternative outcomes; Systemic Envision preferred futures; Intuitive Organise and act to create change. 4
- 5. • University: • 10 Graduate Programs Globally • 90 Graduate Programs wth a Futures Focus or Courses • Endowments for Research Centers • Growing Consulting Field • Increasing Government Initiatives Courtesy John Smart http://www.accelerating.org/gradprograms.html A robust variety.
- 6. Information sources Information sources Framework Forecasting •• texts texts Research •• experts experts •• organizations Impacts Impacts organizations •• periodicals Baseline future Baseline future Implications periodicals Implications •• websites Scanning websites S Current conditions Current conditions •• social social T A K Forces of change Forces of change Response Response •• ongoing trends •• technological technological E H ongoing trends •• policy policy } •• economic O •• potential events potential events economic •• environmental environmental L D E •• emerging issues emerging issues •• plans plans •• new ideas •• political political R S new ideas •• actions actions Courtesy Uncertainty Uncertainty Prof. Peter C. Bishop History History •• previous eras previous eras Leading Leading MS Program in Futures Studies separated by events/ separated by events/ indicators indicators discontinuities discontinuities University of Houston •• the current “era” Impacts Impacts the current “era” beginning with the Alternative futures Alternative futures Implications http://www.tech.uh.edu/futureweb beginning with the Effects Implications most recent most recent discontinuities Information Dr. Peter Bishop, 2000 discontinuities Dr. Peter C. Bishop, Studies of the Future, UH-Clear Lake A Futures Framework
- 7. TIMELINES SYSTEMS MAPS HORIZON SCANNING Emerging Change TREND FORECASTS IMPACT MAPPING SCENARIOS USED FUTURES DISOWNED FUTURES Emerging change has a life cycle: from PREFERRED FUTURES INFLECTION POINTS an insight, a surprise, a crisis -- to a DECISION HORIZONS global trend -- to a fading paradigm. Emerging issues of change can be • How will emerging change affect our daily lives? identified, monitored, and • How will different emerging documented. changes intersect with each other either to amplify or constrain their related Impacts can be explored and analysed impacts? • How will those changes and -- and evaluated for costs and benefits their interconnected impact cascades combine to create to weigh trade-offs across communities. future worlds? 7
- 8. Scanning: TIMELINES SYSTEMS MAPS HORIZON SCANNING Useful but Alien TREND FORECASTS IMPACT MAPPING SCENARIOS USED FUTURES DISOWNED FUTURES Leaders & Change: Horizon Scanning: PREFERRED FUTURES INFLECTION POINTS Beginning of research, Desire for advanced not the end; DECISION HORIZONS warning “N of 1”; Need to look Unearths • How will emerging change affect people’s responsible, contradictions; lives, lifestyles, belongings, houses, authoritative NOT Subjective, not pets, communities, work, retirement, and tentative; objective; investment patterns? • How will different “Unscientific” sources; emerging changes Need to assemble intersect with each credible, objective, Systems-based; other to either amplify or constrain their data-based arguments. Unfamiliar concepts. related impacts? 8
- 9. Mapping a trend’s diffusion into public awareness from its starting point as an emerging issue of change. system limits; problems develop; unintended impacts Number of cases; global; multiple dispersed degree of cases; trends and drivers 3rd horizon public awareness institutions and government newspapers; news magazines; broadcast media laypersons’ magazines; local; few websites; documentaries cases; emerging Pockets of specialists’ journals and issues future found websites In present scientists; artists; radicals; Time mystics “present” “future”
- 10. Leverage: TIMELINES SYSTEMS MAPS HORIZON SCANNING using scanning TREND FORECASTS IMPACT MAPPING SCENARIOS USED FUTURES Places to intervene in a system, in increasing order DISOWNED FUTURES PREFERRED FUTURES of effectiveness: INFLECTION POINTS 9. Constants, parameters, numbers (subsidies, taxes, DECISION HORIZONS standards). 8. Regulating negative (balancing) feedback loops. 7. Driving positive (amplifying) feedback loops. • Systems mapping provides insights 6. Material flows and nodes of material intersection. into how changes and their impacts will ripple through a system -- 5. Information flows. results are often counter-intuitive! 4. The rules of the system (incentives, punishments, • Leveraging profound changes in a constraints). system requires transforming a system’s foundation paradigm. 3. The distribution of power over the rules of the system. • See Donella Meadows’ landmark 2. The mindset or paradigm out of which the system --its essay, “Places to Intervene in a System,” at http:// goals, structures, rules, delays, parameters--arises. www.sustainer.org/pubs/ Leverage_Points.pdf, or the 1. The power to transcend paradigms. Wikipedia article: http:// en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ Donella_Meadows'_twelve_leverage_ 10 points_to_intervene_in_a_system.
- 11. • established in 1962 • 55 ecologically benign buildings • 4 wind turbines • Living Machine sewage system • carbon footprint 1/2 UK average • community-wide solar water heating • community-wide recycling • own bank and community currency • UN Habitat Best Practice Designation Outliers to Opinion Leaders
- 12. • established in 1962 • 55 ecologically benign buildings • 4 wind turbines • Living Machine sewage system • carbon footprint 1/2 UK average • community-wide solar water heating • community-wide recycling • own bank and community currency • UN Habitat Best Practice Designation Outliers to Opinion Leaders
- 13. • established in 1962 • 55 ecologically benign buildings • 4 wind turbines • Living Machine sewage system • carbon footprint 1/2 UK average • community-wide solar water heating • community-wide recycling • own bank and community currency • UN Habitat Best Practice Designation Outliers to Opinion Leaders
- 14. Scanning TIMELINES SYSTEMS MAPS HORIZON SCANNING + the 3rd Horizon TREND FORECASTS IMPACT MAPPING SCENARIOS USED FUTURES Scanning provides a starting point to DISOWNED FUTURES PREFERRED FUTURES monitor possible transformative / INFLECTION POINTS disruptive changes. DECISION HORIZONS 3 Horizons let us organise and consider the interplay of trends and emerging • How will emerging change affect people’s changes. lives, lifestyles, belongings, houses, pets, communities, Uses: work, retirement, and investment patterns? • How will different Challenge system robustness; emerging changes intersect with each other to either amplify Enable plausible provocative scenarios; or constrain their related impacts? Get beyond incrementalism. 12
- 15. Watersheds.
- 16. “3 Horizons” and Horizon Scanning Dominance of paradigm / worldview STATUS QUO, MOMENTUM, INERTIA 3rd horizon Invent, Develop, Deploy Fading paradigms & technologies Research, Demonstrate, Disrupt CURRENT 2nd horizon Transition TRENDS & paradigms & DRIVERS technologies Envision, Explore, Embody EMERGING Pockets of ISSUES OF future found CHANGE In present 1st horizon Time “present” “future”
- 17. Can foresight inspire creativity? • What is creativity? • What is innovation? • How can foresight inspire creativity? • What emerging changes are driving design? • What will the next generation’s consumers want?
- 18. Types of Creativity • Thinking up new ideas • Making something tangible • Producing an event • Organising people or projects • Doing something spontaneous • Building relationships • Changing your “inner self”
- 19. Creativity: Key Concepts Koestler, ‘bisociation’; Johansson, ‘intersection’; Kim & Mauborgne, ‘value innovation’ leading to ‘blue ocean strategy’.
- 20. Example: ”bisociation” … = juicer + spider Philippe Starck?
- 21. Constraints on Creativity • Limiting beliefs • Fear (of the known and unknown) • Other emotions (eg, anger, guilt, boredom) • Stress • Overspecialization • Narrow thinking • Lack of imagination
- 22. Trend Wall: what emerging changes have you discovered?
- 24. graphics from WIRED’s “Found: Artifacts of the Future” feature. We change where we live.
- 25. 3D ‘fabbers’: printing anything. • Fab@Home distributes “open-hardware” plans and DIY instructions for building simple, low-cost home “fabbers.” Fabbers are 3D printers or prototypers. They replicate objects from plans supplied by a computer, and can use a variety of materials, from metal to plastic to sugar or chocolate. It is possible not only to print 3D objects, but to print objects with moving parts. Commercial fabbers are also available, and prices are dropping rapidly. 1, 2, 3 • Researchers at the University of California have designed “Such devices could change optical decoding software that is good enough to create a how we acquire common working copy of a key by analysing a photograph of the key. products. Instead of buying an Once the key type and code is identified, the software can iPod, you would download the drive a key-cutting tool, creating duplicates of the original. 5 plans over the Internet and the fabber would make one for • The world is increasingly being recorded to high-quality you.” digital databases; cell phone cameras are increasingly high - Prof. Hod Lipson, Cornell definition. 23
- 26. A “SensorNet of Things” • Connections will multiply and create an entirely new dynamic network of networks – an Internet of Things. • There will be an increasing convergence of technologies whereby a number of disparate goods and services may be coupled with IT in the same way in which mobile phones, for example are currently capable of taking video footage and photographs and permitting access to the Web. • New ICTs enable 'ubiquitous computing' or 'ambient intelligence' to play an increasing role in our lives through the use of embedded devices which can continuously collect and process information. The devices sense movement and monitor how individuals interact with objects such as vehicles and domestic appliances, making it possible to 'customise' the use of technology in the home, the workplace, and elsewhere. • By 2036 'it is likely that the majority of the global population will find it difficult to ‘turn the outside world off ’. ICT is likely to be so pervasive that people are permanently connected to a network or two-way data stream with inherent challenges to civil liberties; being disconnected could be considered suspicious. • Our “things” will be increasingly embedded with sensors allowing them to monitor their own operations, need for supplies, the ambient environment, and to connect with other appliances and devices -- and us -- through the Internet. 24
- 27. graphics from WIRED’s “Found: Artifacts of the Future” feature. Our belongings evolve: AI.
- 30. A “PowerNet of Things” Power generation capability built into everything: small gadgets: solar rechargers houses / residences: solar, wind, and piezo-electric clothing and floors: piezo-electric (pressure) rechargers infrastructure: desalination plants are also power plants roadways: piezo-electric and solar generation Power stored, recycled, sold on: Extra energy can be ‘stored’ as hydrogen via chemical process similar to photosynthesis Closes loop to create viable hydrogen / fuel cell economy 28
- 31. Biomimicry: designing from nature Scientists, engineers and designers increasingly innovate by studying nature’s efficiencies, following Zimbabwe office complex air these rules of thumb: conditioning modeled on air flow – Nature runs on sunlight; within termite mound. – Nature uses only the energy it needs; – Nature fits form to function; – Nature recycles everything; Self-cleaning fabrics and glass modeled on surface structure – Nature rewards cooperation; of a lotus leaf. – Nature banks on diversity; – Nature demands local expertise; – Nature curbs excess from within; – Nature taps the power of limits. What would your business look like if it ran by these rules?
- 32. Looking Ahead: Emerging Patterns of Change Printing From economies Everything of scale... Printing electronics to economies of Printing 3D objects grid Printing food Printing organic tissue Sustainability via parsimony Nets of Everything Internet of things My home IS my Sensornet of things castle - since every Powernet of things castle was a micro- Blur state / economy. 30
- 33. Futures / Creativity Tools • Reverse Assumptions: because current operating conditions won’t last. • Idea Boxes: scramble characteristics to innovate • Futures Wheels: explore impact cascades because change changes more than one thing • De Bono’s “po”: beyond software mashups to conceptual mashups • Scenario Incasting: explore the business environments and consumers of alternative possible futures and innovate to create strategic responses
- 34. Value Innovation • Which idea(s) offer greatest potential to drive costs down? • Which idea(s) offer buyer value the industry has never before presented consumers?
- 35. Blue Ocean Idea Index • Will there be exceptional utility? Compelling reasons to buy? • Will the price be easily accessible to the mass of buyers? • Will your cost structure be advantageous? • Will it address adoption hurdles?
- 36. Let Foresight inspire change: • Establish corporate foresight dialogue: • Open scanning database • Invite participation from scientists, inventors, artists, educators, public • Explore alternative outcomes (scenarios) • Let the turbulent overlap of multiple perspectives spark creativity and innovation…
- 37. Complex Adaptive Systems: complexity responds to chaos • Social networking, open source, prosumption, and flashmobs all owe their genesis to the complexity paradigm, which assumes that complex adaptive systems... – tend to be self-stabilising; – are or appear to be purposeful; – can use feedback to modify their behaviour; – can modify their own environments; and – can replicate, maintain, repair, and reorganise themselves. • Chaos is turbulence: - where emerging changes intersect and overlap, they generate a turbulent space; - complex systems adapt to turbulence via creativity and innovation.
- 38. 4 Thinking Modes: Logical Creative Systemic Intuitive Foresight pumps innovation.
- 39. The future will be framed by how we answer five fundamental questions: DEFINE: What new concepts, ideas, and paradigms will emerge to help us make sense of the world? RELATE: How will we live together on planet Earth? CONNECT: What arts and technologies will we use to connect people, places, and things? CREATE: As human beings what will we be inspired to create? CONSUME: How will we use the earth’s resources? Innovation creates futures.
- 40. Dr. Wendy L. Schultz Infinite Futures: foresight research and training Oxford, England http:// www.infinitefutures.com Thank you.
Hinweis der Redaktion
- Presentation made to Forrester’s Enterprise Architecture Council Roundtable in Rotterdam, 29 April 2010. The request was for a presentation that briefly explained the core concepts and approaches of the new discipline of futures studies (also called foresight or futurology), linked them to processes of creativity and innovation, and showed how horizon scanning and emerging issues analysis could contribute to innovation using a variety of futures and creativity tools.
- Where were you? Where was I? -- sitting in a conference of over two dozen of the world’s most experienced futures methods experts. We were surprised. My surprise was different from theirs: after three weeks in Hawaii, flying on and off an island with a volcano in continuous eruption, I assumed planes could fly through ‘vog’ and ash. My surprise was the surprise of too great familiarity; theirs was the surprise of the unexpected: something outside their personal experience -- and that even historical recollection did not report usefully: this did not close airspace in 1821.
- What is foresight, futurology, and futures studies? What are the key skills and core activities?
- Futures studies is a young but growing academic discipline, and a research approach that has a growing clientele in public, private, and non-profit sectors.
- Here is one example of what an integrated futures research project might include. Not that it includes not only information from a variety of sources about emerging change, but also historical data about past patterns of change.
- The first step in developing a futures perspective within your organisation is honing your ability to sense change and raising organisational awareness of emerging changes. Horizon scanning, or emerging issues analysis, is a research technique to do that. It is related to business intelligence research -- competitive intelligence -- but much broader in scope and coverage.
- Horizon scanning initiatives can face cultural resistance from traditional research perspectives within organisations, because finding ‘weak signals’ of emerging change requires research strategies whose characteristics and quality indicators are the diametric opposite of traditional research.
- This is a ‘life-cycle’ diagram of an emerging issue maturing into a significant trend.
- Emerging issues can be used as leverage points to transform systems. But do note that Donella Meadows, a founding thinker in systems science, has examined the various places to intervene in any system, and has concluded that the deeper into the rules, power system, paradigms, or value sets of the system you get, the more transformational the change you can create -- but the more difficult it is to intervene: the system resists more strongly.
- This is the story of Findhorn, a community in Scotland: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Findhorn_Foundation In the sixties, it was widely perceived to be a free-thinking hippy commune focussed on alternative spirituality whose residents prayed and sang to their plants and thus apparently were able to grow giant vegetables (really, those were the media stories about the place at the time). What is more relevant is their four-decade long community practice in living sustainably, recycling, generating their own power, and in many ways “living lightly on the land”. Consequently they’ve gone from being eccentrics and the social fringe in the ‘60s, to being highly paid consultants to international organisations and Fortune 500 companies.
- This is the story of Findhorn, a community in Scotland: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Findhorn_Foundation In the sixties, it was widely perceived to be a free-thinking hippy commune focussed on alternative spirituality whose residents prayed and sang to their plants and thus apparently were able to grow giant vegetables (really, those were the media stories about the place at the time). What is more relevant is their four-decade long community practice in living sustainably, recycling, generating their own power, and in many ways “living lightly on the land”. Consequently they’ve gone from being eccentrics and the social fringe in the ‘60s, to being highly paid consultants to international organisations and Fortune 500 companies.
- A more sophisticated approach to timelines and horizon scanning will incorporate the Sharpe/Hodgson/Curry “3 horizons” conceptual framework for mapping overlapping waves of change, from emerging issue and paradigm shift to paradigm maturity and market saturation to obsolescence. See Hodgson and Curry’s article at the Journal of Futures Studies: ...go here: http://www.jfs.tku.edu.tw/sarticles.html and scroll down to Vol. 13, No. 1, August 2008: “Seeing in Multiple Horizons: Connecting Futures to Strategy”.
- Change arrives bumpily. Tipping points and discontinuities arise when changes converge and amplify each other’s impacts. Discontinuities then challenge working assumptions, worldviews, and deeply rooted value sets,
- What is the relationship, if any, between foresight and innovation, the development of novel services or technologies? The fulcrum of that relationship is creativity, so let’s consider what creativity is, what constrains it, and how futures thinking and foresight can help amplify creativity and overcome constraints that may hobble it.
- Arthur Koestler’s landmark work on creativity in science, The Act of Creation, identifies “bisociation” as an engine of creativity: the combining or colliding of two ideas usually thought to be completely unrelated: the forced association of two dissimilar concepts. In the more recent business best-seller, The Medici Effect, Frans Johansson emphasises the same dynamic: the intersection of the dissimilar. Kim and Mauborgne make the case in Blue Ocean Strategy that the most effective competitive strategy is creating value outside the accepted boundaries of your market: combining services and products to create value innovation, winning competitive edge by creating entirely new markets.
- Forcing an association between the function of a citrus juicer and the shape of a spider might have inspired Philippe Starck’s creation of his iconic kitchen tool.
- What follows are some examples of emerging changes (NOT, please note, exhaustive: merely illustrative). In a workshop I would have asked participants to bring in candidate emerging issues of their own, to create a “Trend Wall” wall mural -- which I would have then augmented with a short presentation on emerging change to fill in any significant issues the participants might have missed. If you have an in-house horizon scanning team, they could populate a “trend wall” for you. Creating a trend wall is most useful and effective when combined with the participatory creation of a “past to present” timeline reflecting participants’ understanding of the last few decades of change. This underscores the likelihood of change, as it reminds people of the multiple changes and paradigm shifts they themselves have experienced. The trend wall can also be sorted using a “three horizons” framework, showing people’s best estimates of how long certain changes might take to emerge, and where they will conflict with each other and with fading current paradigms or infrastructures.
- Baroness Prof. Susan Greenfield: futures of neuroscience, cognition, and the human brain. The brain does not distinguish between imagined experience and lived experience: it grows, gains in complexity, adds neurons and interconnections and complexity from the stimulus of thought to the same extent as from the stimulus of life. Thus extrapolating, exploring, envisioning possible and preferred futures does in fact prepare your brain to work more effectively in processing the lived experience of whatever futures may arise.
- These questions are extracted from Michele Bowman and Kaipo Lum’s VERGE: Ethnographic Futures Framework. Their article documenting VERGE/EFF and its use is forthcoming. If you are interested in more information on EFF and its use in workshops, futures wheels, scenario thinking, and visioning, please contact me at wendy@infinitefutures.com for examples and process suggestions.