This document provides a comparative study of consumer trends in Latin America and Asia-Pacific emerging markets. It finds that while incomes are rising across these regions, Latin America suffers from greater income inequality which impacts spending patterns. The middle class makes up a smaller portion of households in Latin America compared to Asia-Pacific. Looking ahead, the document predicts technology and communications as well as health and wellness will be growing consumer sectors in these emerging markets in the coming years as incomes rise further.
1. Emerging Market Consumers:
A comparative study of Latin
America and Asia-Pacific
Euromonitor International
ESOMAR Latin America 2010
2. Table of Contents
Emerging markets and the global recession
Demographic dynamics
Income inequality and the rise of the middle class
Spending priorities
Consumers in 2010 and beyond
4. 2010: Recovery is driven by emerging markets
Real GDP growth: % growth over previous period, annualised
11
Emerging economies
% real GDP growth over previous
6
World
2009: 89
quarter, annualized
2010: 17
Advanced economies Number of countries
1
expected to see
negative real GDP
2007Q2
2008Q1
2006Q1
2006Q2
2006Q3
2006Q4
2007Q1
2007Q3
2007Q4
2008Q2
2008Q3
2008Q4
2009Q1
2009Q2
2009Q3
2009Q4
2010Q1
2010Q2
2010Q3
2010Q4
2011Q1
2011Q2
2011Q3
2011Q4
growth
-4
-9
Source: IMF
5. Winners and losers
Annual % real GDP growth in G20: 2009-2010
China
India
Indonesia
Brazil
Saudi Arabia
Mexico
Turkey
Russia
South Korea
USA
Canada
Australia
South Africa
Japan
Argentina
Germany
France
United Kingdom
EU-27
Italy
-10.0 -5.0 - 5.0 10.0 15.0
2009 2010
Source: IMF 5
6. Latin America
Recovery in Latin America is not homogenous across
countries. Commodity-exporting countries (Brazil, Chile,
Colombia and Peru) are expected to perform better in the
region, while commodity importers face a slower recovery.
Real GDP growth in selected markets: 2008-2009, Growth over previous period
Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009
Argentina 1.2 1.8 1.3 -0.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 na
Brazil 1.8 1.2 1.4 -3.4 -1.0 1.4 1.7 2.0
Chile 1.8 1.9 -1.3 -2 -0.7 -0.3 1.1 na
Colombia -0.4 0.6 0.2 -1.3 0.1 0.8 0.2 na
Mexico 1.2 -0.4 -0.1 -1.9 -6.9 0.3 2.5 2.0
Source: National statistics
Note: Data are seasonally adjusted
7. Brazil
Selected macro-economic indicators:
Brazil’s economy suffered a contraction 2010-2011
in 2009, largely as a result of slowing
global demand for Brazilian exports, 2010 2011
particularly of raw commodities. 12
Nonetheless, the economy has 9.9
rebounded owing to the strong capital 10
inflows and good policy management 8.6
by the government. 8
6
The unemployment rate in Brazil 4.7 4.5
4.1
dropped to 6.8% in December 2009 4 3.7
returning to the same level recorded in
December 2008. 2
Growth of private consumption fell 0
Real GDP Inflation Unemployment
during 2009, but is supported by low Growth Rate
borrowing costs, tax cuts and
aggressive government spending. Source: IMF/ILO/National statistics
8. Mexico
Selected macro-economic indicators:
The recession in Mexico ended in Q3 2010-2011
2009. This was a reflection of the
improvement in industry and services 2010 2011
caused by the revival of external and 7
domestic demand. 6.3
6 5.7
Swine flu alone cost the country more 5 4.7
than US$2 billion. The recession in the 4.0
4 3.5
USA led to a sharp drop in exports and
remittances and the recovery is 3.0
3
dependent on the strength of the US
manufacturing sector. 2
1
Consumer spending fell by 8.0% in
2009 owing to tighter credit, a drop in 0
Real GDP Inflation Unemployment
wages and remittances. Spending Growth Rate
should begin to rise again in 2010,
increasing by 1.8%. Source: IMF/ILO/National statistics
9. Asia Pacific
Asia recovered from the downturn faster than other regions owing to
the highly effective policy responses taken by governments. While
deflationary pressures and a strong yen could stifle Japan's
recovery, China continues to display a strong recovery backed by robust
growth in private demand.
Real GDP growth in selected markets: 2008-2009, Growth over previous period
Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009
China 10.6 10.1 9.0 6.8 6.1 7.9 9.1 10.7
India 2.0 0.8 2.2 -0.3 1.4 2.5 3.0 na
Indonesia 1.8 1.7 1.5 0.2 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.5
South
Korea 1.1 0.4 0.2 -5.1 0.1 2.6 3.2 0.2
Vietnam 7.5 5.7 5.9 5.7 3.1 4.5 5.8 7.4
Source: National statistics
Note: Data are seasonally adjusted. Data for China and Vietnam are year-on-year and are not seasonally adjusted
10. China
Selected macro-economic indicators:
China’s growth continues to remain 2010-2011
buoyant aided by a strong rebound of
2010 2011
exports, robust growth in private
demand and continued increases in 12
foreign investments. 10.0 9.7
10
Domestic spending is driven by the 8
stimulus package and the relaxation of
restrictions on bank lending.
6
4.5 4.5
Concerns about asset price bubbles 4
3.0 3.5
still persist. Timely monetary tightening
will not only help sustain growth but 2
also avoid overheating.
0
Real GDP Inflation Unemployment
Growth Rate
Source: IMF/ILO/National statistics
11. Indonesia
Selected macro-economic indicators:
Indonesia's economy performed better 2010-2011
than that of many other large Asian 2010 2011
countries in 2009 thanks to its large 10 9.4
domestic market and relatively modest 9.1
dependence on exports. The 9
government has been introducing a 8
range of more liberal policies to boost 7
6.2
economic activity, investment and 6 5.4
employment. 4.8 5.0
5
4
Unemployment fell to 7.9% at the
3
end of 2009 – the lowest rate in
nine years. 2
1
Good harvests have boosted farm 0
Real GDP Inflation Unemployment
incomes and commodity exporters Growth Rate
are benefiting from the surge in
China's infrastructure investment. Source: IMF/ILO/National statistics
13. A tale of two regions
Latin Asia-
America Pacific
14. Stark differences in major markets
China 2010 Brazil
1.3 billion Total population 195 million
38.8 years Median age 28.8 years
16.4% % aged 0-14 25.6%
9.7% % aged 65+ 6.8%
1.8 Fertility rate 1.8
Shanghai - 12.0 million Largest city Sao Paulo – 11.4 million
Source: UN/National statistics
16. Fundamental differences in income distribution between
the two regions
Households
with an annual
income over
Average US$15,000:
household Asia-Pacific:
income: 7.3%
Asia Pacific: Latin America:
Gini Index US$11,159 33.2%
Asia Pacific: Latin America:
0.413 US$16,254
Latin America:
0.500
Source: National statistics
17. Income inequality in Latin America impacts on the size
of the middle class
Middle class households: 2009
40%
% of households with an income between
34%
75% and 125% of the median income
35%
31%
30% 29% 28%
27%
24% 24% 23% 23%
25%
22% 21%
20% 19%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Source: National statistics
18. It also means the Latin American rich are richer than
the Asia-Pacific rich
Average disposable income of decile 10 households: 2009
Venezuela
Brazil
Taiwan
South Korea
Mexico
Malaysia
Chile
Peru
Colombia
Argentina
Ecuador
Azerbaijan
Kazakhstan
China
Thailand
Turkmenistan
Philippines
Bolivia
Pakistan
Indonesia
India
Vietnam
- 25,000 50,000 75,000 100,000
US$ per household
Source: National statistics
19. With some startling extremes
The ratio of a decile 10 income to a decile 1 income: 2009
Brazil
Colombia
Peru
Ecuador
China
Malaysia
Philippines
Bolivia
Thailand
Argentina
Turkmenistan
Mexico
Venezuela
Vietnam
India
South Korea
Indonesia
Chile
Taiwan
Azerbaijan
Pakistan
Kazakhstan
- 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0 45.0 50.0
Source: National statistics
21. Income inequality has a huge impact on spending
patterns
Average spending of a decile 5
household: 2009
Necessities Discretionary spending
12,000 A middle income household in Latin
America spends 44% more than
10,000
the equivalent household in
US$ per household
Emerging Asia
8,000
6,000
Despite this, the proportion of
4,000 budget devoted to necessities is
49%
2,000
52% similar: 49% in Latin America
and 52% in Emerging Asia
-
Latin America Emerging
Asia
Source: National statistics
22. How does the spending of the rich compare?
Average expenditure of a decile 10 household: 2009
100%
Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco
90%
Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages
% of total household expenditure
80%
Miscellaneous Goods & Services
70%
Hotels & Catering
60%
Education
50%
Leisure & Recreation
40% Communications
30% Transport
20% Health Goods & Medical Services
10% Household Goods & Services
0% Housing
China Brazil Clothing & Footwear
Source: National statistics
23. And the poor?
Average expenditure of a decile 1 household: 2009
100%
Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco
90% Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages
% of total household expenditure
80% Miscellaneous Goods & Services
Hotels & Catering
70% Education
Leisure & Recreation
60%
Communications
50% Transport
Health Goods & Medical Services
40%
Household Goods & Services
30% Housing
Clothing & Footwear
20%
10%
0%
China Brazil
Source: National statistics
26. Emerging markets increasingly plugged in
Internet Users
1600000
1400000
1200000
1000000
Asia Pacific
800000
Latin America
600000
400000
200000
0
2010 2015 2020
27. Staying connected on the go
Mobile Phone Subscriptions
4000000
3500000
3000000
2500000
Asia Pacific
2000000
Latin America
1500000
1000000
500000
0
2010 2015 2020
36. Expansion of chained retailing – Asia Pacific
Asia Pacific Outlets 2009 Outlets 2014
Hypermarkets 4048 6786
Supermarkets 124477 154445
Discounters 1043 1545
Small Grocery Retailers 11349185 11608480
Food/Drink/Tobacco
Specialists 3747283 3803238
37. Expansion of chained retailing– Latin America
Latin America Outlets 2009 Outlets 2014
Hypermarkets 1770 2129
Supermarkets 9940 11111
Discounters 21636 22554
Small Grocery
Retailers 1592974 1658011
Food/Drink/Tobacco
Specialists 395421 412058
38. Internet retailing: a new frontier for shoppers
1200
04-09 Percentage Value Growth
Argentina
1000
India
800
Brazil
600
Mexico
400
China
200
0
-100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600
09-14 Percentage Value Growth
39. Q&A
Mary.Tabion@Euromonitorintl.com
EUROMONITOR INTERNATIONAL