We will explore both the social and statistical reasons for the #NoEstimates movement. And then we will detail the necessary data and team discipline to employ a #NoEstimates approach to your team’s Agile planning. Learning Outcomes: How to plan with yesterday’s weather. Focusing on the Why and the What improves customer collaboration. Creating options for your customer reduces the risk of uncertainty.

1. A #NoEstimates Playbook
For Teams and Their Customers
Troy Tu'le
Lean Agile Coach
KanFlow.com
troy@kanflow.com
Insanity: doing the same thing over and
Over again and expec6ng different results.
-Albert Einstein
@troytu:le linkedin.com/in/troytu:le

2. TITANIUM SPONSORS
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3. What Do I Do?
@troytu:le
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KanFlow.com
meetup.com/LimitedWIPKC/

4. Estimation Dysfunction
Two Types of Estimation Dysfunction:
1. Social
2. Process/Planning
@troytu:le

5. The Estimation Dysfunction Spiral
Detailed
esGmaGng
Team
commits to an
esGmate
Team works
the sprint
Unfinished
work
We need to
get be:er at
esGmaGng
Customer is disappointed EsGmaGon/planning
takes longer
Communicate date
to customer
Team works
overGme
PO/SM’s hold team
to their commitment
(applying pressure)
Is this the “Agile Experience”?
Start Here!

6. Estimation Challenges
“Ranges that are given as +/– a constant Gme or constant
percent are missing the problem’s exponenGal nature.”
Actual duraGons exceeded esGmates by an average 2.2 Gmes.
Li:le’s staGsGcal analysis compared developer’s esGmates to the
actual task duraGons. (for example: esGmate was 4 hours, it actually took 7 hours)
“Schedule Es6ma6on and Uncertainty”
IEEE SoCware, May/June 2006
-Todd LiNle
“It’s not just good enough to double the iniGal esGmate—
some teams have found it appropriate to
mulGply by 3, 4, or even Pi.”

7. To Story Point or Not to Story Point
X X X X X X X X
?

8. Does Velocity Provide Predictability?
# of Stories predicGve power Story Points predicGve power
The true output:
349 SPs
completed
The predicted
output: 418 SPs
completed
+20%
The true output:
228 Stories
The predicted
output: 220
Stories
-4%!
-Vasco Duarte
h:p://bit.ly/vasco_blog
A=er 3 Sprints:

9. Does Velocity Provide Predictability?
# of Stories predicGve power Story Points predicGve power
The true output:
349 SPs
completed
The predicted
output: 396 SPs
completed
+13%
The true output:
228 Stories
The predicted
output: 220
Stories
-4%!
-Vasco Duarte
h:p://bit.ly/vasco_blog
A=er 5 Sprints:

10. Story Point Predictability?
Courtesy of Bennet Vallet
Director of Development
Siemens Health Services
Expected DistribuGon
Actual DistribuGon
@troytu:le

11. Should We Just Stop Estimating?
@troytu:le
A NoEsGmates approach requires
a higher level of team discipline.
InformaGon is sGll needed to make important
product decisions.

12. NoEstimates Anti-patterns
@troytu:le

13. NoEstimates Anti-pattern #1
@troytu:le
Working in, and Repor6ng on, the “How” (tasks)
Input Q Design Develop Test Done
“Create Validation Service
Object for the
Save Method to call.”
Task-based tracking means nothing to your customer!

14. NoEstimates Anti-pattern #2
@troytu:le
Using Poorly WriNen User Stories
Input Q Design Develop Test Done
“As a Replicator Service,
I need an auth token to access the
Image API, so that I
can provide image replication”
Organize work around solving business problems.

15. NoEstimates Anti-pattern #3
@troytu:le
Allowing large batches to define delivery
Input Q Design Develop Test Done
E
C
D
B
A
Lack of consistent flow erodes customer trust.
Week 1…
Week 2…
Week 3…
Week 4…
Calendar:
Week 5…
Week 6…
Week 7…
Week 8…

16. So, Should We Just Stop Estimating?
@troytu:le
Not un6l we build in the capability to stop es6ma6ng.

17. A NoEstimates Playbook
@troytu:le
Slice > Deliver > Measure > Plan

18. A NoEstimates Playbook: Slice
@troytu:le
username
password
Login
Login Screen Wireframe
X Remember Me
Forgot Password?
How many stories are here?
As a website user, I need to be able
to log in, so that I can gain access to
protected content.
Given: When the login screen is loaded
and user is logged out.
When: User enters valid username &
password and clicks Login.
Then: User sees content landing page.
Given: When the login screen is loaded
and user is logged out.
When: User enters invalid username &
pwd and clicks Login.
Then: User sees login error message.

19. A NoEstimates Playbook: Deliver
@troytu:le
Once your work is sliced small, focus and deliver.
Input Q Design Develop Test Done
Build trust with your customer by delivering faster than
they can absorb the changes.

20. A NoEstimates Playbook: Measure
Input Q Design Develop Test
Done
3
12
9
7
8
6
4
5
Cycle Time
Throughput
10
14 days from this point
5 stories per week
ProbabilisGc ForecasGng
is preferred!
@troytu:le

21. A NoEstimates Playbook: Measure
@troytu:le -- AcGonableAgile.com

22. A NoEstimates Playbook: Plan
@troytu:le
Use measurements to answer the tradi6onal
planning ques6ons: How long will it take, how
much will it cost?
Throughput helps answer the ques6on of how many
things will be done in a 6me period.
Lead Time helps answer the ques6on of how long
will a single thing take to be done?

23. A NoEstimates Playbook Summary
@troytu:le
Slice > Deliver > Measure > Plan

24. A #NoEstimates Playbook
For Teams and Their Customers
Troy Tu'le
Lean Agile Coach
KanFlow.com
troy@kanflow.com
Insanity: doing the same thing over and
Over again and expec6ng different results.
-Albert Einstein
@troytu:le linkedin.com/in/troytu:le