atelier t*h

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Foresight Tools
Perspective, Opportunity, Solution
June
29,
2010
Prepared
for
Professor
Stephen
Kwan,
San
José
State
University
By
Tamara
Carleton
and
William
Cockayne
Benefits of The Foresight Approach
o Puts long-term strategies into action today, overcoming the gap
between big idea and execution
o Supports a collaborative, team-based approach that fosters internal
alignment and buy-in from the beginning
o Helps build internal competencies by teaching multiple tools that can
be integrated into your business strategy and daily work immediately
after the workshop
o Enables more effective decision-making processes to meet your
strategy challenges in the future
© 2010 | W Cockayne and T Carleton
For Teaching Purposes Only
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Foresight Tools Focused on Action
© 2010 | W Cockayne and T Carleton
For Teaching Purposes Only
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Three Phases to Build Foresight
Perspective Opportunity Solution
© 2010 | Cockayne & Carleton
For Workshop Participants Only
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Future Planning Must Embrace Ambiguity
High
Ambiguity
© 2010 | Cockayne & Carleton
For Workshop Participants Only
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Phase I: Perspective
Perspective Opportunity Solution
The first phase is to develop historical perspective about an area of
interest relevant to the future you want to live in. You must look back
first in order to look forward.
o What is the bigger context for the topic you are interested in?
o What historical events, industry actions, and societal movements can be
identified as drivers of today's reality?
o When reviewing previous inventions and opportunities, what similarities in
timing and adoption exist today?
© 2010 | Cockayne & Carleton
For Workshop Participants Only
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Phase II: Opportunity
Perspective Opportunity Solution
This phase helps you develop an ability to see growth opportunities that
exist today and extend into the future. Today’s opportunities become
tomorrow’s innovations.
o What themes are emerging that might shape or influence possible opportunities in the
future?
o Which major changes about people over time, such as population movements and
generational shifts, can we identify and understand that affect future changes?
o What might you expect from future users and customers?
© 2010 | Cockayne & Carleton
For Workshop Participants Only
7
Phase III: Solution
Perspective Opportunity Solution
The third phase seeks to define the questions that exist along different
paths to innovation. Innovative solutions are specific to your industry,
customers, organization, and individual skills.
o How can you determine the multiple paths possible to get from today to tomorrow's
future innovation?
o Looking at what you've learned, how long does each step take along the various paths?
o What are the critical points for change, and which ones are in your control?
© 2010 | Cockayne & Carleton
For Workshop Participants Only
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Nine Tools to Integrate
Illustrative
© 2010 | W Cockayne and T Carleton
For Teaching Purposes Only
9
Phase I: Perspective
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Perspective Opportunity Solution
The first phase is to develop historical perspective about an area of interest
relevant to the future you want to live in. You must look back first in order to look
forward.
Context Maps Progression Curves Janus Cones
Context Mapping is a mapping Progression Curves are a Janus Cones is a foresight tool
technique for capturing emergent graphical representation that for looking backwards and
conversation themes in complex explains the progression of forwards in time to identify the
problems to show integrated changes in terms of timing of historical events and
context.
technological, social, and related how timing affects potential
filters.
future events.
© 2010 | W Cockayne and T Carleton
For Teaching Purposes Only
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Context Map
Context Mapping is a mapping technique for capturing
emergent conversation themes in complex problems to
show integrated context.
© 2010 | Cockayne & Carleton
For Workshop Participants Only
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Progression Curves
Progression Curves are a graphical representation to explain the
progression of changes in terms of technological, social, and related
filters.
© 2010 | Cockayne & Carleton
For Workshop Participants Only
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Janus Cones
Janus Cones is a foresight tool for looking backwards and forwards in
time to identify the timing of historical events and how these timings
affect potential future events.
© 2010 | Cockayne & Carleton
For Workshop Participants Only
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Phase II: Opportunity
Perspective Opportunity Solution
The second phase helps you develop an ability to see growth opportunities that
exist today and extend into the future. Today’s opportunities become tomorrow’s
innovations.
Demographics Future Users Futuretelling
Demographics is a research method Future Users explores the potential Futuretelling are short and
to identify and track population future of a chosen demographic dramatic performances that
changes within a specific group over through the comparative analysis illustrate a particular user need
time in order to understand between similar groups over time.
as a scene from the future.
impending changes on the This is active storytelling at its
workforce, life stages, future best.
markets, and other variables.
© 2010 | W Cockayne and T Carleton
For Teaching Purposes Only
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Demographics
Demographics is a research method to identify and track population growth
within a specific group over time in order to understand impending changes on
the workforce, life stages, future markets, and other variables.
© 2010 | W Cockayne and T Carleton
For Teaching Purposes Only
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Future Users
Future Users is an analytical method that explores the potential future
of a chosen demographic through the comparison of changes between
and over time to similar groups.
Past Today Tomorrow
© 2010 | W Cockayne and T Carleton
For Teaching Purposes Only
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Futuretelling
Futuretelling are short and dramatic performances that illustrate a
particular population need or possible scene from the future.
© 2010 | W Cockayne and T Carleton
For Teaching Purposes Only
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Phase III: Solution
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Perspective Opportunity Solution
The third phase seeks to define the questions that exist along different paths to
innovation. Innovative solutions are specific to your industry, customers,
organization, and individual skills.
White Spots Change Paths Paper Mockups
White Spots are a strategic tool for Change Paths are a set of data- Paper mockups in three-
studying the future opportunity space driven narratives exploring different dimensions (3D) are an
defined by two salient issues. paths and key decision points advanced design method to
Opportunities can be discovered in toward possible future innovations.
prototype and communicate a
the ‘white spots’, or empty areas.
new concept using paper and
inexpensive materials. A specific
iteration is the Dark Horse
Prototype.
© 2010 | W Cockayne and T Carleton
For Teaching Purposes Only
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White Spots
White Spots are a strategic tool for studying the future opportunity
space defined by two salient issues. Opportunities can be discovered in
the ‘white spots’, or empty areas.
© 2010 | W Cockayne and T Carleton
For Teaching Purposes Only
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Change Paths
Change Paths are a set of data-driven narratives exploring different
paths and key decision points toward possible future innovations.
© 2010 | W Cockayne and T Carleton
For Teaching Purposes Only
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Paper Mockups
Paper mockups in three-dimensional (3D) are a design method to
prototype and communicate a new concept using paper and
inexpensive materials.
© 2010 | W Cockayne and T Carleton
For Teaching Purposes Only
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The Dark Horse
A Dark Horse is a design method to prototype and communicate a
concept that is considered high risk and/or least likely to succeed.
© 2010 | W Cockayne and T Carleton
For Teaching Purposes Only
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Center for Foresight and Innovation
Stanford University
http://foresight.stanford.edu
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