Presentation for IASA 24hr Online Summit, 30 April - 01 May 2020.
In every country, all of our enterprises are facing unprecedented levels of challenge and change. To help our organisations not just to weather the storm, but thrive in the new environment, enterprise architects would do well to extend their toolkit with tools from other strategic disciplines. This session provides a practical overview of some of the tools available from the futures/strategic-foresight domains, and shows how to use them in enterprise-architecture practice.
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Enterprise-architects as practical futurists
1. An Association for All IT Architects
Enterprise Architects
as practical futurists
Tom Graves - Tetradian
2. An Association for All IT Architects
I’m Tom Graves
writer
researcher
enterprise-architect
‘maker of tools for change’
Enterprise architects as practical futurists
Weblog: http://weblog.tetradian.com/
Video:https://www.youtube.com/user/tetradian/
videos
Books: http://tetradianbooks.com/
3. An Association for All IT Architects
Part 1: Enterprise-architecture and change
Part 2: Enterprise-architecture and futures
Part 3: A futurists’ toolkit
Part 4: A whole-enterprise architecture toolkit
Wrap-up
How to be practical futurists: About the session
The purpose of this session is to introduce some tools
that can help architects in tackling changes we face now,
and that are coming our way soon
4. An Association for All IT Architects
Enterprise architecture is all about change
Yes, we’re facing big changes now - but even larger
changes are coming soon
We need to be ready for those changes
Plans get shredded, but planning (the ability to plan and
re-plan at a moment’s notice) is essential
We need a toolkit that can tackle any kind of change, at any
scope and scale
Part 1: Enterprise architecture and change
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Whole-enterprise architecture is a literal ‘the architecture
of the enterprise as a whole’, over multiple timescales
“things work better when they work together, on-purpose –
every scope, every scale, every type of content or context,
every timescale, from initial idea to decommission”
Link to professional disciplines of futures/strategic-foresight
‘Futures’ is a plural, not singular – we can only know
‘the future’ for certain when it’s already the now
Much of the professional futurists’ toolkit is directly usable
in enterprise architecture
Part 2: Enterprise architecture and futures
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Scenarios – modelling alternative-futures
Backcasting – building backwards from a preferred future
Causal Layered Analysis – narrative-based futures
Other tools:
Wardley Maps – dynamics of strategic choices
Now to New – an iterative approach to futures
Stages of Grief – the human impact of change
Part 3: A futurists’ toolkit
7. An Association for All IT Architects
Scenarios provide guidance for future choices and options
Build a set of stories (scenarios) of the future (futures)
Find the factors that are stable - design for dynamic
change around that
Develop 2-4 scenarios around at least 2 key change-factors
Develop preliminary plans of how your organisation would
respond to each scenario
As the actual future develops, notice which story is coming
true, and re-plan dynamically for that direction of change
A futures toolkit: Scenarios
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[Source:
Deloitte,
April 2020]
A futures toolkit: Scenarios: Factors
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[Source:
Deloitte,
April 2020]
A futures toolkit: Scenarios: Story-set
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[Source:
Deloitte,
April 2020]
A futures toolkit: Scenarios: Implications
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Scenarios provide guidance for future choices and options
source for example on previous slides:
https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/global/Documents/About-
Deloitte/COVID-19/Thrive-scenarios-for-resilient-leaders.pdf
Further information:
Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scenario_planning
Shell scenarios: https://www.shell.com/energy-and-innovation/the-energy-
future/scenarios.html
Scenario Canvas: https://enklare.wordpress.com/2015/04/26/the-scenario-
canvas/
A futures toolkit: Scenarios
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Backcasting reduces overwhelm for large-scale change
Develop a story of a desired future (‘To-Be’)
Make that story human
how you feel, what you see, what underpins satisfaction
What needs to be in place, for that future to exist?
what services, assets, decisions, skillsets etc
Work backwards from that future towards the present (‘As-Is’),
in a series of steps (‘horizons’)
what needs to be in place for/at each of those horizons?
Back at the present, what do you need to do right now to get
from here to the first horizon?
A futures toolkit: Backcasting
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[Source:
Đorđe
Vojinović]
A futures toolkit: Backcasting: Overview
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Backcasting reduces overwhelm for large-scale change
source for graphic on previous slide:
https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Steps-in-backcasting_fig1_334312079
Further information:
Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Backcasting
Natural Step Canada: https://www.naturalstep.ca/backcasting
UTS, ‘The Future Backwards’:
https://canvas.uts.edu.au/courses/1276/pages/the-future-backwards
A futures toolkit: Backcasting
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Making sense of change through layers of narrative
developed by Sohail Inayatullah et al., 1998 onward
Four distinct layers:
litany – the everyday ‘litany of complaint’
systemic causes – economics, politics, culture, history etc
worldview – social structure, and the discourse that supports it
myth / metaphor – underlying deep-story (‘the way things are’)
Layers interweave / interact to drive a social context
For change to be successful, it must address all layers
Failure to address deeper layers will show up as ‘the litany’
A futures toolkit: Causal Layered Analysis
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The iceberg is a common
metaphor in CLA: only the
litany is directly visible,
everything else is beneath
the surface
The litany is just surface-
level symptoms: the real
issues lie deeper below
Methods for analysis and
review will change as we go
downward through the layers
A futures toolkit: CLA: ‘The Iceberg’
[Source:
Wikipedia]
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Culture, social-causes
and the surface-level
litany all depend on and
build from the underlying
myth / metaphor
Sustainable change will
depend on a re-visioning
of the deep-story (‘myth,
metaphor and narrative’)
Source: José Ramos, ‘Futures
Visioning’,
https://actionforesight.net/narrative-
foresight/
A futures toolkit: CLA: Layers and change
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Making sense of change through layers of narrative
Sustainability change depends on the underlying deep-story
Further information:
Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Causal_layered_analysis
Metafuture: https://www.metafuture.org/Articles/CausalLayeredAnalysis.htm
On crosslinks to enterprise-architecture:
‘SCAN and Causal Layered Analysis’:
http://weblog.tetradian.com/2012/10/24/scan-and-causal-layered-analysis/
‘Two SCAN notes: 2 – Causal Layered Analysis’:
http://weblog.tetradian.com/2014/03/04/two-scan-notes-2-cla/
A futures toolkit: Causal Layered Analysis
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Futures: Other tools: Wardley Maps
[Source:
Simon
Wardley]
Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wardley_map
Learn Wardley Mapping website: https://learnwardleymapping.com/
Contextual mapping to guide strategic choices and options
Two axes: Value-chain (invisible -> visible), Evolution (genesis -> commodity)
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‘Now to New’ provides a more stepwise approach to futures
developed by Nils Pflaeging, Silke Hermann, Jack Martin Leith and others
Futures: Other tools: Now to New
Jack Martin Leith on ‘Now to New’: http://jackmartinleith.com/now-to-new/
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Change often triggers grief –
loss of the old, fear of new
Kübler-Ross ‘Stages of grief’
model can be helpful here:
denial
anger
bargaining
depression
acceptance
Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K%C3%BCbler-Ross_model
BetterHelp: https://www.betterhelp.com/advice/grief/understanding-the-stages-of-grief/
[Source:
U3173699
via Wikimedia]
Futures: Other tools: Stages of grief
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Change-mapping – consistent method and governance
Visioning (for Context)
Holomap (for Scope)
SCORE (for Plan)
SCAN (for Action)
After-Action Review (for Review)
Other tools:
VPEC-T – Values, Policies, Events, Content, Trust
SEMPER power-model
Enterprise Canvas for service-modelling
Part 4: A whole-enterprise architecture toolkit
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Link disparate tools together, keep on-track to purpose,
prevent scope-creep, and support continuous learning
Is consistent – it works the same way:
across all enterprise domains
for every type of content or context
for every scope and scale
for every level of complexity
Is context-neutral: call in context-specific tools as required
should support any/every context-specific tool for any domain
Supports good governance – avoid anti-patterns etc
A whole-EA toolkit: Change-mapping
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Whole-EA: Change-mapping: Tasks (CSPAR)
[Source:
Tetradian]
Mission as ‘container’ for task
Change-mapping task-sequence:
Context – big-picture, vision, drivers
Scope – boundaries, stakeholders, skills
Plan – preparation, setup, signals, start/end
Action – capture ideas, insights, information
Review – benefits-realised, lessons-learned
Roles:
within Mission: Explorer, Pathfinder, Observer
broader-scope: Librarian, Coordinator, Architect
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Do the right things; do things
right; learn from every task
Iterative, chain, branch, nest
Avoid anti-patterns:
don’t rush to Action
don’t rush to Plan
don’t run backwards from past
don’t get stuck in one place
Reduce uncertainty in Plan;
resolve uncertainties in Action
Whole-EA: Change-mapping: Task-detail
[Source:
Tetradian]
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Link disparate tools together, keep on-
track to purpose, prevent scope-creep,
and support continuous learning
Works the same way for every type of
content or context, every scope and scale
Further information:
Book: https://www.changemappingbook.com/
Video: https://youtu.be/uey79fSYSNM
Methods for whole-enterprise architecture:
http://weblog.tetradian.com/2016/07/26/methods-for-
whole-enterprise-architecture-keep-it-simple/
A whole-EA toolkit: Change-mapping
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Provides a stable anchor for decisions in the midst of change
Three parts: concern (‘what’), action (‘how’), qualifier (‘why’)
example: concern: “ideas”; action: “spreading”; qualifier: “worth”
link all three parts into a vision-phrase: “ideas worth spreading”
Derive values from the vision
Derive principles from the values
Contextualise vision, values, principles in Scope and Plan
Use principles in Plan-stage decision-making
Use values and high-priority principles within real-time Action
A whole-EA toolkit: Visioning
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Whole-EA: Visioning in business-architecture
[Source:
Tetradian]
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Vision provides a stable anchor for
decisions in the midst of change
Vision has concern, action, qualifier
Derive values from the vision
Derive principles from the values
A whole-EA toolkit: Visioning
Further information:
Video ‘Introduction to visioning’: https://youtu.be/z0ybs2VOI-M
Slidedeck ‘Vision, Role, Mission, Goal’:
https://www.slideshare.net/tetradian/vision-role-mission-goal-a-framework-
for-business-motivation
[Source:
Tetradian]
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Make sense of stakeholders, relationships, responsibilities
Enterprise as ‘why’, organisation as ‘how’
Stakeholders connect to organisation via the ‘why’
Look outwards to make sense of stakeholders’ view
Map the enterprise three steps outward from organisation:
transactions (‘supply-chain’)
direct-interactions (‘market’)
indirect-interactions (‘enterprise-as-storyworld’)
Look inward to model how services need to work
A whole-EA toolkit: Holomap
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Whole-EA: Holomap: Looking outward
[Source:
Tetradian]
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Whole-EA: Holomap: Linking to inward
[Source:
Tetradian]
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Make sense of stakeholders, relations,
responsibilities
Map stakeholders for internal-services,
transactions, direct-interactions,
indirect-interactions
A whole-EA toolkit: Holomap
Further information:
Video ‘Introduction to Holomap’: https://youtu.be/dZWFYbGcVgQ
Holomap as service-context: http://weblog.tetradian.com/services-and-
ecanvas-review-2-supplier-customer/
Inside-out versus outside-in: http://weblog.tetradian.com/inside-in-inside-out-
outside-in-outside-out/
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Identifying, addressing and testing options for change-action
Five domains:
Strengths – capabilities and services already available for (re)-use
Challenges – concerns arising that require some kind of change
Options – choices available, with related opportunities and risks
Responses – expected or actual feedback from the real-world
Effectiveness – align every action to enterprise values, qualities
Each action ripples out to other domains, like a spreadsheet
example: resolved Challenges become Strengths, for new Options
In Options, opportunity and risk are a symmetric pair
A whole-EA toolkit: SCORE options-mapping
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Whole-EA: SCORE: SCORE workspace
[Source:
Tetradian]
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Identifying, addressing and testing options for change-action
Use SCORE as a more useful version of SWOT-analysis
SWOT gives lists, SCORE gives usable insights
Each action ripples out to other domains, like a spreadsheet
A whole-EA toolkit: SCORE options-mapping
Further information:
Video ‘Introduction to SCORE’: https://youtu.be/SdkhYl7ae0M
Workshop-slidedeck ‘What’s the SCORE?’:
https://www.slideshare.net/tetradian/whats-the-score-how-to-make-sense-of-a-
business-change
Slidedeck ‘Introduction to SCORE’ (old, but shows comparison to SWOT):
https://www.slideshare.net/tetradian/intro-toscore-v1
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Mapping and making sense of choices on uncertainty
Two-axis map – axes are:
time: before, during, after, relative to an arbitrarily-chosen ‘Now’
uncertainty: absolute-predictability to deep-uncertainty
Boundaries:
time-axis: transition from plan to action, transition over the ‘Now’
uncertainty-axis: limit of effective-certainty
Use map to identify what is or can be made more certain
Feedback-loops across the space (e.g. question and answer,
rules and realities, ‘auftragstaktik and fingerspitzengefühl’)
A whole-EA toolkit: SCAN complexity-map
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Base-graphic for SCAN
Whole-EA: SCAN: Mapping uncertainty
[Source:
Tetradian]
Choices for tactics
[Source:
Tetradian]
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Feedback loops
Whole-EA: SCAN: Resolving uncertainty
[Source:
Tetradian]
[Source:
Tetradian]
Skewed perceptions
about certainty (‘theory
over practice’)
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Whole-EA: SCAN: Mapping uncertainty
[Source:
Tetradian]
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Mapping and making sense of choices on uncertainty
Use domains to identify tactics for sensemaking and action
Use map to identify what is or can be made more certain
A whole-EA toolkit: SCAN complexity-map
Further information:
Video ‘Introduction to SCAN complexity-map’: https://youtu.be/qvgBIXItVYw
Posts on SCAN (~100 posts): http://weblog.tetradian.com/tag/scan/
Slidedeck ‘The dung-beetle’s tale’ (introduction to SCAN):
https://www.slideshare.net/tetradian/the-dungbeetles-tale-systemsthinking-
complexity-and-the-realworld
Slidedeck ‘Invisible armies’ (feedback-loops in SCAN):
https://www.slideshare.net/tetradian/invisible-armies-information-purpose-and-
the-real-enterprise
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Supports continuous-learning, continuous-improvement
initially developed by US Army, has been adapted for many other industries
Depends on two rules: no priority, no blame
Link back to Context and Scope, then five steps:
“What was supposed to happen?” – link back to Plan
“What actually happened?” – retrieve action-records from Action
“What was the source of the difference?” – ‘bad’ and ‘good’
“What can I do better next time?” – personal commitment
“What can we do better next time?” – team commitment
Do this process after every action
A whole-EA toolkit: After Action Review
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From Context, Scope, Plan:
“What was supposed to happen?”
From Action: “What actually
happened?”
In Review: “What was the source
of the difference?”
Individual link to Purpose
(Context): “What do I learn from
this, to do better next time?”
Collective link to People
(Scope/skills): “What do we learn
from this, to do better next time?”
Whole-EA: After Action Review: Process
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Establish benefits-realised, lessons-learned
Supports continuous-learning, continuous-improvement
Do this process after every action
A whole-EA toolkit: After Action Review
Further information:
Wikipedia on ‘After Action Report’:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/After_action_report
Video ‘Introduction to After Action Review’: https://youtu.be/55s4CebiTaw
Slidedeck ‘How to build continuous-learning into enterprise-architecture:
https://www.slideshare.net/tetradian/how-to-build-continuouslearning-into-
architecturepractice
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Use to guide sensemaking in
complex multi-stakeholder
contexts
• developed by Nigel Green and Carl Bate
Five ‘lenses’: Values, Policies,
Events, Content, Trust
Whole-EA: Other tools: VPEC-T
[Source:
Nigel Green
/ Carl Bate]
Further information:
Wikipedia on VPEC-T: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VPEC-T
Book ‘Lost In Translation’: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/3236146-
lost-in-translation
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Make sense of clashes, conflicts, motivation and more
Whole-EA: Other tools: SEMPER power-model
[Source:
Tetradian]
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Make sense of clashes, conflicts, motivation and more
Power as ‘ability to do work’ vs ‘ability to avoid work’
What work needs to be done? What power and ‘response-
ability’ is needed for each form of work? (power-with)
What work is being avoided? How is it being avoided?
(power-under [‘not my job’], power-over [blame etc])
Why is work being avoided? (e.g. stages-of-grief model)
Whole-EA: Other tools: SEMPER power-model
Further information:
video ‘Introduction to SEMPER power-model’: https://youtu.be/hdeHbQRCcqw
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Whole-EA: Other tools: Enterprise Canvas
[Source:
Tetradian]
Model services, service-relationships, service-completeness
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Model services, service-relationships, service-governance
Consistent modelling: “Everything is or represents a service”
Provides fractal checklist for service-completeness
Whole-EA: Other tools: Enterprise Canvas
Further information:
slidedeck ‘Bridging enterprise-architecture and systems-thinking’,
https://www.slideshare.net/tetradian/acs-easig-bridging-enterprisearchitecture-
and-systemsthinking
post-series ‘Services and Enterprise Canvas review’,
http://weblog.tetradian.com/2014/10/29/services-and-ecanvas-review-
summary/
post ‘Enterprise Canvas as service-viability checklist’,
http://weblog.tetradian.com/2011/09/14/ecanvas-as-service-viability-checklist/
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Tools described here all work the same way at every scope
and scale, and for every timescale
use these context-neutral tools to link together the detail-tools
that each work at specific scope, scale and context
Huge challenges now, but more severe ones coming soon
depletion of crucial resources – e.g. helium
climate-change – regardless of cause, it is changing in big ways
no way to make a possession-based economics sustainable –
mandates a shift to responsibility-based economics
Practice on small-changes to get ready for the big ones…
Futures and whole-EA: Wrapping up…