Presented by Steve Olson at Rootscamp '12, Washington DC, November 30, 2012

1. ZOMBIE ONLINE POLITICS:
Killing some online myths.
Steve Olson
Senior Strategist
Trilogy Interactive
@SteveOlson
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2. HOUSEKEEPING
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3. Goals
• Knit together folks who are interested in talking about
-- and sharing -- data regarding online organizing.
• Present some data to help ground what we do in some
form of reality.
•Discuss your myth-busting data
• Gather ideas for future research -- and sharing of
results
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4. Ground Rules
• Apologies in advance for the language. I only curse
because I care about you.
• Feel free to interrupt.
• Email: OnlineZombieMyths@Gmail.com
• #Roots12 #ZombieRoots
• Your mileage may vary
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5. Agenda
• Zombie Politics Defined
• Online Zombie Myths
• Discussion: Next Research Steps
• Discussion: Building a Learning Infrastructure
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6. WHO THE HELL ARE YOU?
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7. Steve Olson (@SteveOlson)
• First Website: 1994 (first for pay: 1998)
• Field Organizer 2000
• 2002-2003 NYU Political Campaign Management
Graduate School
• DCCC Online Operations (2003-2005)
• Planned Parenthood Fed. of Am. (2005-2007)
•Udall for Us All (2008)
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8. Trilogy Interactive (2012)
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9. ZOMBIE ONLINE POLITICS
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10. Zombie Online Politics: A Short History
TheMonkeyCage.org
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11. Myth: The First
Email is dead.
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12. Myth: The First
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13. Myth: The Second
Candidates who “win” on
Facebook win the race.
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14. Myth: The Second
• Background: We were grumpy with all the “X is beating
Y on Facebook” articles in 2010
• The Hypothesis: If organizing on Facebook was an
indicator of the strength of the campaign as a whole, the
“Like share” should predict the share of the vote.
• The Hedging: This was 2010 data, Facebook’s users are
far more representative of the voting population now.
Additionally, we only had likes in 2010 -- no “talking
about this” or easy engagement metrics.
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15. Myth: The Second
FB-predicted outcome vs. actual outcome
0.6
0.5
0.4
Win Margin
0.3
Win Margin
Predicted Win Margin
0.2
0.1
0
-1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5
FB FAN Margin
Figure 1: U.S. Senate races
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But for gubernatorial races, Figure 2, we see only a very weak correlation, as represented by the red line
sloping only slightly up as you move from left to right. The strength of the campaign's Facebook
presence would only explain about 0.008 of the vote margin, according to these calculations.
Friday, November 30, 12

16. Myth: The Second
FB-predicted outcome vs. actual outcome
0.6
0.5
0.4
Win Margin
0.3
Win Margin
0.2 Predicted Win Margin
0.1
0
-1 -0.5 0 0.5 1
FB FAN Margin
Figure 2: Gubernatorial Races
For our sample of U.S. House races, we observed a slight negative correlation, meaning a stronger
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Facebook presence was associated with a smaller margin of victory. Figure 3 shows predicted win
margin decreasing as you move from left to right. GY
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17. Myth: The Second
FB-predicted outcome vs. actual outcome
0.5
0.45
0.4
0.35
0.3
Win Margin
0.25
Win Margin
0.2
Predicted Win Margin
0.15
0.1
0.05
0
-1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5
FB Fan Margin
Figure 3: U.S. House Races
One thing all three graphs have in common is the wide scattering of the win margin plots. All three sets
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of data produced large standard deviations, which hints at the wide variety of factors in play in this
election. GY
SUMMARY
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18. Myth: The Second
• Results: Slightly correlated for US Senate (13% of
result); no correlation for gubernatorial, slightly negative
(!) for House races.
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19. Myth: The Second (2012!)
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20. SLOTH!!!!
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21. Myth: The Third
You Shouldn’t Ask for Money on
Social Networks
(h/t @HNachem)
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22. Myth: The Third
• Background: Statewide Ballot Initiative -- unusually
large & active Facebook fan base
• The issue: Very active posting (3-5x per day; strong
responsiveness, high quality posts), but reluctant to ask
heavily. Preferred to “build the narrative”. Implicitly
relying on passive fundraising via donation link on the
page.
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23. Myth: The Third
Passive Active
• 100 gifts • 40 asks
• $6,186.28 • 1,064 gifts
• $61.86 average • $73,317.50
• $68.91 average
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24. Myth: The Third
$84,021.78 raised in six
months on Facebook.
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25. Myth: The Third (kicker)
$1,848,635.94 raised online
4.54% from Facebook
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26. Myth: The Fourth
You Shouldn’t Ask People to
Retweet You
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27. Myth: The Fourth
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28. Myth: The Fourth
source: DanZarrella.com / Hubspot.com
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29. Myth: The Fourth
source: DanZarrella.com
Hubspot.com
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30. BABY OTTER PILE!
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31. Myth: The Fifth
Email the list this video: We’re
going to raise a ton!
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32. Myth: The Fifth
The Test: Does placing a lightbox callout AFTER a video
raise more money than placing a video on a donation
page?
• CONTROL • TEST
• Sent: 44,683 • Sent: 44,875
• Donations: 23 • Donations: 69
• Total Raised: • Total Raised:
$900 ($39.13 $2,346
avg)
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33. LET’S DO THIS.
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34. Stay in touch
solson@trilogyinteractive.com
@SteveOlson
facebook.com/stevenkolson
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