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Ke ipsos spec_poll_press_release_presentation_3rd_september_2015

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Ke ipsos spec_poll_press_release_presentation_3rd_september_2015

  1. 1. 1 © 2015 Ipsos.1 SPEC Barometer PREPARED BY: IPSOS PREPARED FOR: GENERAL RELEASE RELEASE DATE: 3RD SEPTEMBER 2015 Ipsos Public Affairs © 2015 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos.
  2. 2. 2 © 2015 Ipsos. Contents Victims of Crime/ Type of Crime A KDF in Somalia B C ED Reporting Crime to Police/ Satisfaction with Police Response Perceived Terrorism Threat Level Awareness of Past/Most Recent Al- Shabaab Attacks
  3. 3. 3 © 2015 Ipsos.33333333 METHODOLOGY 3 © 2015 Ipsos.
  4. 4. 4 © 2015 Ipsos. Methodology Dates of Fieldwork 30th July – 9th August, 2015 Sample Size 2,002 (Total Individual Contacts: 2,471) Sampling Methodology Random, Multi-stage stratified using PPS (proportionate to population size) Population Universe Kenyan adults, aged 18 and above living in Urban and Rural areas (41 counties covered) Data Collection Methodology Face-to-Face interviews at the household level Sampling Error +/-2.2% with a 95% confidence level (Note: Higher error-margins for sub-samples) Interview Languages English, Swahili, Somali
  5. 5. 5 © 2015 Ipsos. Sample Structure Statistics Region Sample Frame statistics (August 2015) *Weighted data % Population Census as at 2009 Adults (18 years +) % Central 262 13 2,548,038 13 Coast 176 9 1,711,549 9 Eastern 299 15 2,907,293 15 Nairobi 210 10 2,042,770 10 North Eastern 96 5 929,158 5 Nyanza 262 13 2,547,980 13 Rift Valley 493 25 4,795,482 25 Western 204 10 1,980,090 10 TOTAL 2,002 100 19,462,360 100
  6. 6. 6 © 2015 Ipsos. Quality Control Measures • For at least 20% of the interviews, a supervisor is present throughout • Field managers visit at least 15% of the respondents in the sample at their households to confirm the interviews (i.e. back-checking). • After the interview data are electronically transmitted to the Ipsos Server: an independent team then makes random phone calls to 40% of the respondents to confirm that the interviews were conducted with the said respondents (i.e., telephonic back-checks). • Mobile Data Collection Platform captures GPS location (latitudes and longitudes) of interviews conducted to verify the locations of the interviewers in the field alongside allowing silent recording. • Logical data checks are made on selected questionnaire entries to ensure conformity to the sample’s statistical parameters. Ipsos employs quality control measures to ensure the highest possible integrity of obtained results/data
  7. 7. 7 © 2015 Ipsos.77777777 RESPONDENTS’ DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE 7 © 2015 Ipsos. (Weighted for: Gender, Age, Region and Setting)
  8. 8. 8 © 2015 Ipsos. 10% 9% 13% 25% 5% 15% 13% 10% 51% 49% 28% 29% 18% 25% 37% 63% Nairobi Coast Nyanza Rift Valley North Eastern Eastern Central Western Female Male 18 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 44 45+ Urban Rural 24% 1% 42% 8% 5% 5% 10% 4% 1% 8% 17% 29% 23% 4% 6% 0% 7% 2% 3% Catholic Catholic Charismatic Mainstream Protestant (ACK,… SDA Evangelical Other Christian Muslim Other RTA/None Public Sector wages/salary Private sector wages /salary Gains from self employment/… Agriculture (own/household farm) Livestock Given money by others Pension from previous employment Other DK RTA/None Region Gender Age Setting Religion Source of Household Income Base: All Respondents (n=2,002)
  9. 9. 9 © 2015 Ipsos. 5% 16% 18% 16% 25% 7% 6% 3% 3% Less than 1% 4% 42% 30% 10% 3% 2% 9% No Formal Some Primary Completed Primary Some Secondary Completed Secondary Some Mid-Level College Completed Mid-Level College Some University Completed University Any Post-Graduate (MA, MBA, PhD) No income Less than 10,000 10,001 – 25,000 25,001 – 40,000 40,001 – 55,000 55,001 – Above RTA/DK Level of Education Income for ALL Household members Base: All Respondents (n=2,002)
  10. 10. 10 © 2015 Ipsos. 38% 20% 11% 10% 7% 5% 5% 2% 1% Self-Employed/Business Owner Unemployed Private Sector Employee Peasant/Herder (Own Farm/Pasture) Casual Labour Public Sector Employee Student Retired Other Total Wage Employment: 16% Employment Status Base: All Respondents (n=2,002)
  11. 11. 11 © 2015 Ipsos.1111111111111111 PERSONAL SECURITY/CRIME 11 © 2015 Ipsos.
  12. 12. 12 © 2015 Ipsos. “Have you been a victim of crime in the last three months?” (By Total) 70% 0% 15% 0% 50% 100% Once Twice More Than Twice “How many times?” Base: Those reporting to have been victims of crime in the last three months (n=107) Base: n=2,002 95% 5% No Yes
  13. 13. 13 © 2015 Ipsos. “Have you been a victim of crime in the last three months?” by Total, Region Base: n=2,002 5% 14% 10% 9% 6% 5% 3% 3% 2% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% Total (n=2,002) Nairobi (n=210) North Eastern (n=96) Coast (n=176) Western (n=204) Eastern (n=299) Central (n=262) Nyanza (n=262) Rift Valley (n=493) % saying “Yes”
  14. 14. 14 © 2015 Ipsos. 61% 20% 13% 0% 50% 100% Not Satisfied Somewhat Satisfied Completely Satisfied YES, 51% NO, 49% YES NO Base: Those stating they have been victims of crime in the last three months (n=107) “How satisfied were you with the way the police responded?” Base: Those claiming to have reported these crimes to the police (n=51) Nature of Crime May 2014 Sept. 2014 Nov. 2014 April 2015 Aug. 2015 Violent 41% 47% 46% 59% 40% NOT violent 57% 51% 48% 38% 56% RTA 2% 2% 6% 3% 4% “Did you report the crime to the police?
  15. 15. 15 © 2015 Ipsos. 55% 21% 18% 6% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Weak/No follow up in investigations Corruption Slow/No response to immediate crime report Other Reporting/Reason for Being “Not Satisfied” with Police Response Base: Those who were satisfied (n=18) “Why were you not satisfied were you with the Police response?” Base: Those who reported and were “not satisfied” with police response (n=33) “Why were you satisfied with the Police response?” 48% 19% 29% 4% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Criminal(s) was(were) arrested Stolen property was recovered Police took measures to increase security Other
  16. 16. 16 © 2015 Ipsos. “Have you been a victim of crime in the last three months?” Trend Analysis: October 2006 – August 2015 11% 10% 10% 10% 7% 10% 9% 5% 5% 40% 60% 42% 56% 49% 58% 49% 51% 41% 58% 43% 50% 60% 63% 68% 61% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Oct. 2006 Oct. 2008 Jun-13 Nov. 2013 May-14 Sept. 2014 Nov. 2014 Apr-15 Aug. 2015 Crime Victims Reported To Police "Not Satisfied with Police Response"
  17. 17. 17 © 2015 Ipsos.1717171717171717 SOMALIA ISSUES 17 © 2015 Ipsos.
  18. 18. 18 © 2015 Ipsos. “As far as you know, which al-Shabaab attack in Kenya caused the greatest loss of life?” by Total, Region 70% 79% 74% 73% 71% 71% 61% 61% 58% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Total (n=2,002) Central (n=262) Nyanza (n=262) Eastern (n=299) Nairobi (n=210) Rift Valley (n=493) Western (n=204) Coast (n=176) North Eastern (n=96) Correct Answer: Garissa University College Attack (April, 2015) Base: All Respondents (n=2,002)
  19. 19. 19 © 2015 Ipsos. 49% 64% 62% 61% 52% 51% 49% 40% 30% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Total (n=2,002) North Eastern (n=96) Central (n=262) Nairobi (n=210) Nyanza (n=262) Eastern (n=299) Coast (n=176) Rift Valley (n=493) Western (n=204) Correct Answer: Quarry Workers Killed in Mandera Town (July, 2015) “As far as you know, what was the most recent attack in Kenya by al-Shabaab?” by Total, Region Base: All Respondents (n=2,002)
  20. 20. 20 © 2015 Ipsos. 36% 44% 28% 45% 49% 43% 48% 38% 11% 9% 19% 9% 4% 4% 5% 9% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% A unified and stable country under the new Government of Somalia An increase in terrorist attacks in Kenya Refugees able to return to their homes in Somalia The military defeat of al- Shabaab More Likely Less Likely No Difference Not Sure “Do you think the presence of the KDF in Somalia will make the following…?” by Those (77%) Aware of KDF in Somalia Base: Those Aware of KDF Presence in Somalia (n=1,538)
  21. 21. 21 © 2015 Ipsos. Perceived Impact of KDF Action in Somalia on 4 Issue- Outcomes: By Total of Those (77%) Aware of KDF Presence in Somalia Base: Those Aware of KDF Presence in Somalia (n=1,538) 54% 68% 47% 40% 38% 46% 49% 36% 36% 26% 56% 41% 56% 45% 45% 55% 49% 44% 39% 49% 38% 45% 31% 33% 57% 26% 28% 48% 56% 45% 49% 38% 43% 50% 34% 45% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Oct. 2011 (n=1,618) Nov. 2013 (n=1,762) March 2014 (n=1,482) May 2014 (n=1,693) Sept. 2014 (n=1,601) Nov. 2014(n=1,611) Dec.2014 (n=1,806) April 2015 (n=1,492) Aug. 2015 (n=1,538) A unified and stable country under the new Govt of Somalia An increase in terrorist attacks in Kenya Refugees able to return to their homes in Somalia The military defeat of al-Shabaab % saying “MORE LIKELY”
  22. 22. 22 © 2015 Ipsos. 57% 80% 62% 59% 55% 46% 42% 39% 37% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Total )m=1,538) Central (n=227) Rift Valley (n=374) Eastern (n=244) Nairobi (n=187) Nyanza (n=189) Coast (n=122) North Eastern (n=54) Western (n=141) % Who Approve “Do you approve or disapprove of the continued deployment of the KDF in Somalia?” by Total, Region (Among Those 77% Aware of KDF Presence in Somalia) Base: Those Aware of KDF Presence in Somalia (n=1,538)
  23. 23. 23 © 2015 Ipsos. “Do you approve or disapprove of the continued deployment of the KDF in Somalia?” by Total, Supporters of the Main Political Parties/Coalitions (Among Those 77% Aware of KDF Presence in Somalia) Base: Those Aware of KDF Presence in Somalia (n=1,538) 57% 70% 39% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Total (n=1,538) Jubilee Supporters (n=766) CORD Supporters (n=485) % Who Approve
  24. 24. 24 © 2015 Ipsos. “How much of a threat would you say that al-Shabaab is to Kenya as of now? Is it… a threat?” by Total, Supporters of the Main Political Parties/Coalitions Base: All Respondents (n=2,002) 76% 73% 80% 15% 17% 14% 6% 7% 3%1% 1% 1%2% 1% 2% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Total (n=2002) Jubilee Supporters (n=957) CORD Supporters (n=618) Very Much Somewhat Not Much Not At All DK/NR
  25. 25. 25 © 2015 Ipsos. “How much of a threat would you say that al-Shabaab is to Kenya as of now? Is it… a threat?” by Total, Region Base: All Respondents (n=2,002) 81% 79% 78% 77% 76% 75% 73% 60% 9% 11% 12% 14% 16% 18% 16% 29% 4% 4% 3% 7% 5% 7% 9% 7% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 0% 0% 1% 4% 4% 4% 0% 2% 0% 1% 4% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Western (n=204) Nyanza (n=262) Coast (n=176) Rift Valley (n=493) Eastern (n=299) Central (n=262) Nairobi (n=209) North Eastern (n=94) Very Much Somewhat Not Much Not At All DK/NR
  26. 26. 26 © 2015 Ipsos. “Altogether, what do you think is the main thing that should be done to reduce the threat of al-Shabaab?” (Single Response, Unprompted) by Total, Supporters of the Main Political Parties/Coalitions Preferred Measure Total (n=2002) Jubilee Supporters (n=957) CORD Supporters (n=618) % Difference Send More Troops 25% 28% 25% -3% Withdraw Troops 25% 18% 35% +8% Enhance Intelligence 23% 28% 18% -10% Reduce Corruption 8% 8% 9% +1% Build Border Wall 8% 10% 6% -4% Not Sure 10% 9% 7% -2%
  27. 27. 27 © 2015 Ipsos. Contacts Dr Tom Wolf Research Analyst tpwolf1944@gmail.com Hilda Kiritu Head of Public Affairs Hilda.kiritu@ipsos.com Follow us on twitter: @IpsosKe
  28. 28. 28 © 2015 Ipsos. ABOUT IPSOS Ipsos ranks third in the global research industry. With a strong presence in 87 countries, Ipsos employs more than 16,000 people and has the ability to conduct research programs in more than 100 countries. Founded in France in 1975, Ipsos is controlled and managed by research professionals. They have built a solid Group around a multi-specialist positioning – Media and advertising research; Marketing research; Client and employee relationship management; Opinion & social research; Mobile, Online, Offline data collection and delivery. Ipsos is listed on Eurolist - NYSE-Euronext. The company is part of the SBF 120 and the Mid-60 index and is eligible for the Deferred Settlement Service (SRD). www.ipsos.com GAME CHANGERS At Ipsos we are passionately curious about people, markets, brands and society. We deliver information and analysis that makes our complex world easier and faster to navigate and inspires our clients to make smarter decisions. We believe that our work is important. Security, simplicity, speed and substance applies to everything we do. Through specialisation, we offer our clients a unique depth of knowledge and expertise. Learning from different experiences gives us perspective and inspires us to boldly call things into question, to be creative. By nurturing a culture of collaboration and curiosity, we attract the highest calibre of people who have the ability and desire to influence and shape the future. “GAME CHANGERS” - our tagline - summarises our ambition.

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