This document provides the methodology and results of a survey conducted in Kenya between July 30th and August 9th, 2015. A random sample of 2,002 Kenyan adults were interviewed face-to-face. The survey covered topics like crime victimization, views on al-Shabaab and the deployment of the Kenyan Defense Forces in Somalia. It also includes demographic information about the respondents and trends from previous surveys. Strict quality control measures were employed to verify the data collection process.

1. 1 © 2015 Ipsos.1
SPEC Barometer
PREPARED BY: IPSOS
PREPARED FOR: GENERAL RELEASE
RELEASE DATE: 3RD SEPTEMBER 2015
Ipsos Public Affairs
© 2015 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information
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2. 2 © 2015 Ipsos.
Contents
Victims of Crime/
Type of Crime
A
KDF in Somalia
B C
ED
Reporting Crime to
Police/ Satisfaction with
Police Response
Perceived Terrorism
Threat Level
Awareness of
Past/Most Recent Al-
Shabaab Attacks

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METHODOLOGY
3 © 2015 Ipsos.

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Methodology
Dates of Fieldwork 30th July – 9th August, 2015
Sample Size 2,002 (Total Individual Contacts: 2,471)
Sampling Methodology Random, Multi-stage stratified using PPS (proportionate to population size)
Population Universe
Kenyan adults, aged 18 and above living
in Urban and Rural areas (41 counties covered)
Data Collection Methodology Face-to-Face interviews at the household level
Sampling Error
+/-2.2% with a 95% confidence level
(Note: Higher error-margins for sub-samples)
Interview Languages English, Swahili, Somali

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Sample Structure Statistics
Region
Sample Frame statistics
(August 2015)
*Weighted data
%
Population Census as at 2009
Adults (18 years +)
%
Central 262 13 2,548,038 13
Coast 176 9 1,711,549 9
Eastern 299 15 2,907,293 15
Nairobi 210 10 2,042,770 10
North Eastern 96 5 929,158 5
Nyanza 262 13 2,547,980 13
Rift Valley 493 25 4,795,482 25
Western 204 10 1,980,090 10
TOTAL 2,002 100 19,462,360 100

6. 6 © 2015 Ipsos.
Quality Control Measures
• For at least 20% of the interviews, a supervisor is present throughout
• Field managers visit at least 15% of the respondents in the sample at their households to confirm the interviews
(i.e. back-checking).
• After the interview data are electronically transmitted to the Ipsos Server: an independent team then makes
random phone calls to 40% of the respondents to confirm that the interviews were conducted with the said
respondents (i.e., telephonic back-checks).
• Mobile Data Collection Platform captures GPS location (latitudes and longitudes) of interviews conducted to
verify the locations of the interviewers in the field alongside allowing silent recording.
• Logical data checks are made on selected questionnaire entries to ensure conformity to the sample’s statistical
parameters.
Ipsos employs quality control measures to ensure the
highest possible integrity of obtained results/data

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RESPONDENTS’
DEMOGRAPHIC
PROFILE
7 © 2015 Ipsos.
(Weighted for: Gender, Age,
Region and Setting)

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10%
9%
13%
25%
5%
15%
13%
10%
51%
49%
28%
29%
18%
25%
37%
63%
Nairobi
Coast
Nyanza
Rift Valley
North Eastern
Eastern
Central
Western
Female
Male
18 - 24
25 - 34
35 - 44
45+
Urban
Rural
24%
1%
42%
8%
5%
5%
10%
4%
1%
8%
17%
29%
23%
4%
6%
0%
7%
2%
3%
Catholic
Catholic Charismatic
Mainstream Protestant (ACK,…
SDA
Evangelical
Other Christian
Muslim
Other
RTA/None
Public Sector wages/salary
Private sector wages /salary
Gains from self employment/…
Agriculture (own/household farm)
Livestock
Given money by others
Pension from previous employment
Other
DK
RTA/None
Region
Gender
Age
Setting
Religion
Source of Household Income
Base: All Respondents (n=2,002)

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5%
16%
18%
16%
25%
7%
6%
3%
3%
Less than 1%
4%
42%
30%
10%
3%
2%
9%
No Formal
Some Primary
Completed Primary
Some Secondary
Completed Secondary
Some Mid-Level College
Completed Mid-Level College
Some University
Completed University
Any Post-Graduate (MA, MBA, PhD)
No income
Less than 10,000
10,001 – 25,000
25,001 – 40,000
40,001 – 55,000
55,001 – Above
RTA/DK
Level of Education
Income for ALL Household members
Base: All Respondents (n=2,002)

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38%
20%
11%
10%
7%
5%
5%
2%
1%
Self-Employed/Business Owner
Unemployed
Private Sector Employee
Peasant/Herder (Own Farm/Pasture)
Casual Labour
Public Sector Employee
Student
Retired
Other
Total Wage Employment: 16%
Employment Status
Base: All Respondents (n=2,002)

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PERSONAL
SECURITY/CRIME
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“Have you been a victim of crime in the
last three months?” (By Total)
70%
0%
15%
0% 50% 100%
Once
Twice
More Than Twice
“How many times?”
Base: Those reporting to have been victims of
crime in the last three months (n=107)
Base: n=2,002
95%
5%
No Yes

13. 13 © 2015 Ipsos.
“Have you been a victim of crime in the last three months?”
by Total, Region
Base: n=2,002
5%
14%
10%
9%
6%
5%
3% 3%
2%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Total
(n=2,002)
Nairobi
(n=210)
North
Eastern
(n=96)
Coast
(n=176)
Western
(n=204)
Eastern
(n=299)
Central
(n=262)
Nyanza
(n=262)
Rift Valley
(n=493)
% saying “Yes”

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61%
20%
13%
0% 50% 100%
Not Satisfied
Somewhat Satisfied
Completely Satisfied
YES,
51%
NO,
49%
YES NO
Base: Those stating they have
been victims of crime in the
last three months (n=107)
“How satisfied were you with the way the
police responded?”
Base: Those claiming to have reported these
crimes to the police (n=51)
Nature of
Crime
May
2014
Sept. 2014 Nov. 2014 April
2015
Aug.
2015
Violent 41% 47% 46% 59% 40%
NOT violent 57% 51% 48% 38% 56%
RTA 2% 2% 6% 3% 4%
“Did you report the crime to the police?

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55%
21%
18%
6%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
Weak/No follow up in
investigations
Corruption
Slow/No response to
immediate crime report
Other
Reporting/Reason for Being “Not Satisfied” with Police Response
Base: Those who were
satisfied (n=18)
“Why were you not satisfied were you with
the Police response?”
Base: Those who reported and were “not
satisfied” with police response (n=33)
“Why were you satisfied with the Police response?”
48%
19%
29%
4%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
Criminal(s) was(were)
arrested
Stolen property was
recovered
Police took measures to
increase security
Other

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“Have you been a victim of crime in the last three months?”
Trend Analysis: October 2006 – August 2015
11% 10% 10% 10% 7% 10% 9%
5% 5%
40%
60%
42%
56%
49%
58%
49% 51%
41%
58%
43%
50%
60%
63% 68%
61%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Oct. 2006 Oct. 2008 Jun-13 Nov. 2013 May-14 Sept. 2014 Nov. 2014 Apr-15 Aug. 2015
Crime Victims Reported To Police "Not Satisfied with Police Response"

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SOMALIA
ISSUES
17 © 2015 Ipsos.

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“As far as you know, which al-Shabaab attack in Kenya
caused the greatest loss of life?” by Total, Region
70%
79%
74% 73% 71% 71%
61% 61% 58%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Total
(n=2,002)
Central
(n=262)
Nyanza
(n=262)
Eastern
(n=299)
Nairobi
(n=210)
Rift Valley
(n=493)
Western
(n=204)
Coast
(n=176)
North
Eastern
(n=96)
Correct Answer: Garissa University College Attack (April, 2015)
Base: All Respondents (n=2,002)

19. 19 © 2015 Ipsos.
49%
64% 62% 61%
52% 51% 49%
40%
30%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Total
(n=2,002)
North
Eastern
(n=96)
Central
(n=262)
Nairobi
(n=210)
Nyanza
(n=262)
Eastern
(n=299)
Coast
(n=176)
Rift Valley
(n=493)
Western
(n=204)
Correct Answer: Quarry Workers Killed in Mandera Town (July, 2015)
“As far as you know, what was the most recent attack in
Kenya by al-Shabaab?” by Total, Region
Base: All Respondents (n=2,002)

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36%
44%
28%
45%
49%
43%
48%
38%
11% 9%
19%
9%
4% 4% 5%
9%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
A unified and stable country
under the new Government of
Somalia
An increase in terrorist
attacks in Kenya
Refugees able to return to
their homes in Somalia
The military defeat of al-
Shabaab
More Likely Less Likely No Difference Not Sure
“Do you think the presence of the KDF in Somalia will
make the following…?” by Those (77%) Aware of KDF in
Somalia
Base: Those Aware of KDF Presence in Somalia (n=1,538)

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Perceived Impact of KDF Action in Somalia on 4 Issue-
Outcomes: By Total of Those (77%) Aware of KDF Presence
in Somalia
Base: Those Aware of KDF Presence in Somalia (n=1,538)
54%
68%
47%
40% 38%
46%
49% 36% 36%
26%
56%
41%
56%
45%
45%
55% 49%
44%
39%
49%
38%
45%
31% 33%
57%
26%
28%
48%
56%
45% 49%
38%
43%
50%
34%
45%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Oct. 2011
(n=1,618)
Nov. 2013
(n=1,762)
March 2014
(n=1,482)
May 2014
(n=1,693)
Sept. 2014
(n=1,601)
Nov.
2014(n=1,611)
Dec.2014
(n=1,806)
April 2015
(n=1,492)
Aug. 2015
(n=1,538)
A unified and stable country under the new Govt of Somalia
An increase in terrorist attacks in Kenya
Refugees able to return to their homes in Somalia
The military defeat of al-Shabaab
% saying “MORE LIKELY”

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57%
80%
62% 59%
55%
46%
42% 39% 37%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Total
)m=1,538)
Central
(n=227)
Rift Valley
(n=374)
Eastern
(n=244)
Nairobi
(n=187)
Nyanza
(n=189)
Coast
(n=122)
North
Eastern
(n=54)
Western
(n=141)
% Who Approve
“Do you approve or disapprove of the continued
deployment of the KDF in Somalia?” by Total, Region
(Among Those 77% Aware of KDF Presence in Somalia)
Base: Those Aware of KDF Presence in Somalia (n=1,538)

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“Do you approve or disapprove of the continued deployment of the KDF
in Somalia?” by Total, Supporters of the Main Political Parties/Coalitions
(Among Those 77% Aware of KDF Presence in Somalia)
Base: Those Aware of KDF Presence in Somalia (n=1,538)
57%
70%
39%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Total (n=1,538) Jubilee Supporters (n=766) CORD Supporters (n=485)
% Who Approve

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“How much of a threat would you say that al-Shabaab is
to Kenya as of now? Is it… a threat?” by Total,
Supporters of the Main Political Parties/Coalitions
Base: All Respondents (n=2,002)
76% 73%
80%
15% 17% 14%
6% 7%
3%1% 1% 1%2% 1% 2%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Total (n=2002) Jubilee Supporters (n=957) CORD Supporters (n=618)
Very Much Somewhat Not Much Not At All DK/NR

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“How much of a threat would you say that al-Shabaab
is to Kenya as of now? Is it… a threat?” by Total, Region
Base: All Respondents (n=2,002)
81% 79% 78% 77% 76% 75% 73%
60%
9% 11% 12% 14% 16% 18% 16%
29%
4% 4% 3%
7% 5% 7% 9% 7%
2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 0% 0% 1%
4% 4% 4%
0% 2% 0% 1%
4%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Western (n=204) Nyanza (n=262) Coast (n=176) Rift Valley
(n=493)
Eastern (n=299) Central (n=262) Nairobi (n=209) North Eastern
(n=94)
Very Much Somewhat Not Much Not At All DK/NR

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“Altogether, what do you think is the main thing that should be done to
reduce the threat of al-Shabaab?” (Single Response, Unprompted) by
Total, Supporters of the Main Political Parties/Coalitions
Preferred Measure Total (n=2002) Jubilee Supporters (n=957) CORD Supporters (n=618) % Difference
Send More Troops 25% 28% 25% -3%
Withdraw Troops 25% 18% 35% +8%
Enhance Intelligence 23% 28% 18% -10%
Reduce Corruption 8% 8% 9% +1%
Build Border Wall 8% 10% 6% -4%
Not Sure 10% 9% 7% -2%

27. 27 © 2015 Ipsos.
Contacts
Dr Tom Wolf
Research Analyst
tpwolf1944@gmail.com
Hilda Kiritu
Head of Public Affairs
Hilda.kiritu@ipsos.com
Follow us on twitter: @IpsosKe

28. 28 © 2015 Ipsos.
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