COVID-19 - Systems & Complexity Thinking in Action

Hinweis der Redaktion

1. This talk is heavily influenced by discussions I’ve had in these two networks I’m a part of. I’m going to: Introduce Dave Snowden’s Cynefin framework, and show you how it can be used Introduce Simon Wardley’s value chain mapping technique Spark a discussion of how the economic & social system may evolve at the macro level
2. Do do this, I’ll start out with the very small.
3. COVID-19 plunged us all into Chaos.
4. In our house, stress levels rose as we: locked down a couple of weeks before the UK gov’t did. feared for the lives of our community & loved ones while trying to figure out what to do with our kids all day at home and deal with random panic buying and disrupted supply chains (food, not toilet paper) we kept on trying to work but worried about how we’ll survive when our companies go bust and we have no income because somebody would set our local cell tower on fire and the internet would die all the time watching the value of our investments dropping off the face of a cliff because the stockmarket’s crashed And then we started making plans.
5. There’s a reason people panicked. It’s amygdala hijack kicking in to prompt some form of action. Any form of action. It doesn’t really matter what. (well, that’s not quite true) In chaotic systems: You Act first to stop the pain, bleeding, etc. Then you try and make sense of what’s happened. Then you decide what to do. Typically you arrive in the complex domain.
6. To explain complex: a simple & relevant example from my personal experience…
7. We were lucky enough to be able to WFH. with the kids. Stress levels are high (all the reasons) Opportunity for my daughter to whinge has never been higher! Obviously I want her to play rather than whinge. I tried all the carrots... time for the stick. Funnily enough, it worked!! (but not how you think) Simple example: Imagine how complicated this diagram would get if I layered on stress of furlough, lack of income, mortgages & landlords losing jobs, lack of excercise, risk of dying.
8. The whole point of this small example is to show how complex human bahaviour is, even at the micro level. It constantly evolves There is no obvious predetermined link between cause & effect Execute multiple safe-to-fail probes. Learn from the results. Then stop the ones that don’t work, amplify the ones that do. Thanks to systems & complexity thinking, I’m able to work successfully at home and oversee my kids self-directed homeschooling.
9. To summarise… In complex systems: You execute multiple safe-to-fail Probes first. Then you try and make sense of them. Then you decide what to do.
10. Let's have a look at the micro
11. We were lucky, many more were not.
12. Companies filing for bankruptcy
13. Evictions are on the rise in UK And presumably elsewhere… Impacts us directly, as we have a property business in Canada. One of our tenants operates a home daycare.
14. explain system impact of covid-19 lockdown
15. 1. If a tenant can't pay rent, Landlord has 2 options: Evictions are a reactive Chaos response Supporting tenants by reducing rent reduces loss of profit Bank response: Offer payment holidays (to some) Keep charging interest! This should be regulated away for benefit of landlords 3. Reducing interest rates: +’ve, -’ve 4. Governments are being squeezed. Not a long term solution!
16. Cash Strong cash positions → more robust response, less chaotic Complementing gov’t support by topping up salary of furloughed employees Weak cash positions → panicked, more chaotic response High levels of debt lead to insolvency concerns Workforce not treated as well (layoffs, etc) Remote-friendliness Businesses more remote-friendly were in a natural position of strength Those that weren’t → prolonged chaotic response Existing fragility Companies with underlying issues such (Flybe, Debenhams, etc) Unveiled issues, exacerbated problems Prolonged chaotic response Secure More opportunistic response (complex)
17. Modal are a perfect company to analyse They are a “remote-first” company, so ideally positioned to weather the COVID-19 storm! They have grown into a successful digital agency over the past decade Value chain mapping is simply a matter of identifying needs, and what those needs depend on.
18. Their business model is already under threat, due to evolution at several levels of their value chain.
19. Their customer’s needs have shifted thanks to COVID-19. reduced demand → loss mitigation behaviour Speeding up evolution to platforms
20. Money is like blood to a company. In these times: You Act first to stop the bleeding. Then you try and make sense of what’s happened. Then you decide what to do.
21. We are living through a forest fire.
22. I’m banking on there being a new wave of more resilient companies who are less susceptible to system shocks as a result.
23. There are many interesting signals. I’ve not yet pieced together a full picture. Values of the societies reflected in government responses. Italy suspended capitalism to protect its people. America’s leaders reluctantly locked down and are actively looking for ways to reopen. 1. Many worry gov’t are offering less support to people than firms. Concerns that bailout money given to firms will just be used to pay dividends, like in the GFC Tesco defends £635m dividend payout after coronavirus tax break 2. Growing calls for UBI (The Independent). Academics, politicians (SNP), NGOs, even Pope Francis - once left, not center 3. On the other hand, you have protestors fighting the lockdown Back to work: my economic freedom at risk ≥ vs pandemic slavery Protesters gather at Minnesota governor's mansion over lockdown, chant 'open up' Trump’s ”Liberate Virginia” tweet, supporting 2nd amendment. 4. All this with the looming threat of climate change impacting millions more lives than COVID-19 is likely to.
24. Valdis Krebs points out… … not within the nodes. Diversity of connections improves quality of evolution. We tend to gather in small groups of like-minded people. Need to find ways to change that. Connect.
25. Regardless of your political views.
26. As Eliyahu Goldratt (theory of constraints) teaches us… They are an attractor.
27. Money represents human value, it doesn’t define it. Value is much more complex than that.
28. Exercise: Future Backwards session in Trios (With people you’ve never worked with!) At a Macro scale, discuss & map what likely heaven / hell scenarios will emerge in a post COVID-19 world?