20211129 jim spohrer wsif digital_entrepreneurship v8
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20211129 jim spohrer wsif digital_entrepreneurship v8
- 1. World Social Innovation Forum (WSIF): Shaping Digital Economy Through Digital Entrepreneurship Jim Spohrer Board of Directors, ISSIP.org Questions: spohrer@gmail.com Twitter: @JimSpohrer LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/spohrer/ Slack: https://slack.lfai.foundation Presentations on line at: https://slideshare.net/spohrer Thanks to PK Agarwal for inviting me a panelist for the WSIF Digital Entrepreneurship event , on November 29 (30th Singapore/Dubai) , 2021. Highly recommend: Humankind: A Hopeful History By Dutch Historian, Rutger Bregman <- Thanks To Ray Fisk For suggesting this book
- 2. 11/29/2021 2 What does it mean to become a digital entrepreneur? Panel: Open Position Statement/Resources • IBM Smarter Planet and University Programs (university-based startups) and rethinking agriculture, manufacturing, and service sector • Service Innovation (ISSIP.org) and Economic Development Report (World Bank) and Upskilling Report (European Union) • Phil Auerswauld’s book “The Coming Prosperity” (entrepreneurship) and Kartik Gada’s book ”ATOM” (tech acceleration) • Digital Entrepreneurship in the AI Era (100 digital workers for you)
- 3. “AI won’t replace entrepreneurs, but entrepreneurs who use AI will replace those who don’t.” Adapted from a Microsoft report, “The Future Computed” Thanks to Tony Hey (Chief Data Scientist, Rutherford Appleton Lab, Harwell Campus, Didcot UK) What does it mean to become a digital entrepreneur?
- 4. Timeline Future of AI: Every 20 years, compute costs are down by 1000x • Cost of Digital Workers • Moore’s Law can be thought of as lowering costs by a factor of a… • Thousand times lower in 20 years • Million times lower in 40 years • Billion times lower in 60 years • Smarter Tools (Terascale) • Terascale (2017) = $3K • Terascale (2020) = ~$1K • Narrow Worker (Petascale) • Recognition (Fast) • Petascale (2040) = ~$1K • Broad Worker (Exascale) • Reasoning (Slow) • Exascale (2060) = ~$1K 4 2080 2040 2000 1960 $1K $1M $1B $1T 2060 2020 1980 +/- 10 years $1 Person Average Annual Salary (Living Income) Super Computer Cost Mainframe Cost Smartphone Cost T P E T P E AI Progress on Open Leaderboards Benchmark Roadmap to solve AI/IA OECD_Alistair Nolan to Everyone: “It has been stated that the number of engineers proclaiming the end of Moore's Law doubles every two years.” Rouse WB, Spohrer JC. (2018) Automating versus augmenting intelligence. Journal of Enterprise Transformation. 2018 Apr 3;8(1-2):1-21.
- 5. “The best way to predict the future is to inspire the next generation of students to build it better” Digital Natives Transportation Water Manufacturing Energy Construction ICT Retail Finance Healthcare Education Government
- 6. 11/29/2021 6 1955 1975 1995 2015 2035 2055 Better Building Blocks
- 7. Jim Spohrer, Board of Directors, ISSIP.org Jim Spohrer serves on the Board of Directors of the International Society of Service Innovation Professionals, and as a contributor to the Linux Foundation AI and Data Foundation. He is a retired IBM Executive since July 2021, and previously directed IBM’s open-source Artificial Intelligence developer ecosystem effort, was CTO IBM Venture Capital Group, co-founded IBM Almaden Service Research, and led IBM Global University Programs. After his MIT BS in Physics, he developed speech recognition systems at Verbex (Exxon) before receiving his Yale PhD in Computer Science/AI. In the 1990’s, he attained Apple Computers’ Distinguished Engineer Scientist and Technologist role for next generation learning platforms. With over ninety publications and nine patents, he received the Christopher Loverlock Career Contributions to the Service Discipline award, Gummesson Service Research award, Vargo and Lusch Service-Dominant Logic award, Daniel Berg Service Systems award, and a PICMET Fellow for advancing service science. Jim was elected and previously served as LF AI & Data Technical Advisory Board Chairperson and ONNX Steering Committee Member (2020-2021), UIDP Senior Fellow for contributions to industry-university collaborations. 7 From 2002 - 2009, Jim co-founded (with Paul Maglio) and directed IBM Almaden Service Research helping to establish service science, applying science, technology, and T-shaped upskilling of people to business and societal transformation. Who I am 2021 A big year: (1) hit 65, (2) career award, (3) retired from IBM
- 8. Who I am: Take 2 The Three Ages of Man (Giorgione) Thanks to Alan Hartman for kind inspiration (slides) (recording) Service, when responsible entities apply their knowledge for mutual benefits win-win/non-zero-sum games/value co-creation/capability co-elevation Service is a central, fundamental concept of the value of systems interacting (entities-interactions-outcomes)
- 9. What I study Service Science and Open Source AI – Trust is key to both Service Science Artificial Intelligence Trust: Value Co-Creation/Collaboration Responsible Entities Learning to Invest Transdisciplinary Community Trust: Secure, Fair, Explainable Machine Collaborators Open Source Communities
- 10. 11/29/2021 (c) IBM MAP COG .| 10 T-shaped Adaptive Innovator: Deep Problem-Solving and Broad Communication/Collaboration Advanced Tech: AI to IoT to Quantum, GreenTech, RegTech, etc. Work Practices: Agile, Service Design, Open Source Mindset: Growth Mindset, Positive Mindset, Entrepreneurial Many disciplines Many sectors Many regions/cultures (understanding & communications) Deep in one sector Deep in one region/culture Deep in one discipline
- 11. Upskilling… T-shaped (l)earners Gardner P, Maietta HN (2020) Advancing Talent Development: Steps Toward a T-Model Infused Undergraduate Education. Moghaddam Y, Demirkan H, Spohrer J (2018) T- Shaped Professionals: Adaptive Innovators.
Hinweis der Redaktion
- Thank-you for the opportunity to share some thoughts with you all today. My contact and this presentation is on slideshare. Looking forward to the discussion with the class. If there are any questions folks have - please send along and happy to address them to the best of my knowledge and experiences. Please feel free to share this information with the students to see if they have specific questions: When I graduated from MIT in 1978, I was employee/hire number 60 at an early AI company called Dialog Systems, that got acquired by Exxon and renamed Verbex, and then Dragon Systems (speech recognition) spun out of that. That was a great four year experience, and then I went to Yale to get my PhD in Computer Science/AI. When I left Apple in 1998 as a Distinguished Scientist, Engineer, Technologist, (yes, I have Steve Jobs stories), and became the founding CTO of IBM VC Relations Group, we built a machine that allowed IBM to identify and acquire about one $100M revenue company per month for 10 years, and my last job before retiring was leading IBM's Open Source AI group - and today, open source based AI startup abound for sure. I was pushing for IBM to do more in open source, and finally the Red Hat acquisition shifted us squarely in that direction. Red Hat is the fastest growing part of IBM revenue today. Happy to share what I think the future of AI is, as well as new categories to be created with AI, and something I call "service science" and the coming "Golden Age of Service."  Better investing is also a topic of interest, and I also like to think about investments that transform the way society works - so currently reading books like: Mazzucato (2021) Mission Economy: A Moonshot Guide to Changing Capitalism Froud et al (2018) Foundational Economy You and your class may enjoy watching this video of Steve Jurvetson - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O2tK0Wl2F8w - especially like Steve's comments about Musk turning fear of investment into greed for investment when Tesla needed $40M.
- URL – IBM Smarter Planet and University Programs (university-based startups) https://www.slideshare.net/spohrer/service-science-progress-and-directions-20100620 URL – Rethikning agriculture, manufacturing, and service sector https://www.slideshare.net/spohrer/korea-day2-tutorial-20161014-v6 URL - Service Innovation https://issip.org URL – World Bank Economic Development Report – Digital Service-led https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/35599?deliveryName=DM123063 URL – European Union Upskilling Report, Digital Service-led https://op.europa.eu/en/publication-detail/-/publication/cd4d4f61-4c16-11ec-91ac-01aa75ed71a1/language-en URL - Auerswald book – entrepreneurship https://www.amazon.com/Coming-Prosperity-Entrepreneurs-Transforming-Economy/dp/0199795177 URL - Gada book – tech acceleration https://www.amazon.com/ATOM-Second-Time-Upgrade-Economy/dp/1953349501/ URL - Spohrer “100 digital workers for you” https://hunterhastings.com/117-jim-spohrer-on-the-entrepreneurial-future-in-a-world-with-cognitive-assistants/
- URL: https://www.slideshare.net/spohrer/20211103-jim-spohrer-oecd-aiscienceproductivitypanel-v5 URL: https://www.slideshare.net/spohrer/korea-day1-keynote-20161013-v6
- This slide is my version of Moore’s Law – just draw seven verticals every 20 years from 1960 to 2080, and five horizonal lines for $1 to $1T. Computing power is the diagonal lines. Today in 2020, for example, a terascale a million millions instructions per second is available for about$1K and petascale is available for 10M to 100M. Exascale is predicted to be available for $1K in 2060 – we will see – no one knows the future. The yellow line going down is the cost of digital workers, if you think of a CEO buying an AI capability for a particular price this is an important prediction. This can also be interpreted as the apps on your smart phones growing up to become digital workers with a voice interface. What is beyond Exascale? Zetta (21), Yotta (24) Time dimension (x-axis) is plus or minus 10 years…. Daniel Pakkala (VTT) URL: https://aiimpacts.org/preliminary-prices-for-human-level-hardware/ Dan Gruhl: https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/business/1983/11/06/in-pursuit-of-the-10-gigaflop-machine/012c995a-2b16-470b-96df-d823c245306e/?utm_term=.d4bde5652826  In 1983 10 GF was ~10 million.  That's 24.55 million in today's dollars.  or 2.4 billion for 1 TF in 1983  Today 1 TF is about $3k http://www.popsci.com/intel-teraflop-chip
- By 2036, there will be an accumulation of knowledge as well as a distribution of knowledge in service systems globally. We need to ensure as there is knowledge accumulation that service systems at all scale become more resilient. Leading to the capability of rapid rebuilding of service systems across scales, by T-shaped people who understand how to rapidly rebuild – knowledge has been chunked, modularized, and put into networks that support rapid rebuilding. Starecat.com - https://starecat.com/rich-man-to-worker-careful-mate-that-foreigner-wants-your-cookie/ Balance of improve strongest link (weekly victories) and improve weakest link (annual top-people infusion)
- The weakest link is what needs to be improved – according to system scientists. Accessing help, service, experts is the weakest link in most systems. By 2035 the phone may have the power of one human brain – by 2055 the phone may have the power of all human brains. Before trying to answer the question about which types of sciences are more important – the ones that try to explain the external world or the ones that try to explain the internal world – consider this, slide that shows the different telephones that I have used in my life. I grew up in rural Maine, where we had a party line telephone because we were somewhat remote on our farm in Newburgh, Maine. However, over the years phones got much better…. So in 2035 or 2055, who are you going to call when you need help?
- Here is my brief bio in words… I am a retired IBM executive (since July 2021), and serve on the Board of Directors, of the International Society of Service Innovation Professionals (ISSIP.org) promoting service science as a new transdiscipline, linking industry, academia, and public policy to accelerate value co-creation and capability co-elevation (business and societal transformation to better and better win-win games). Picture 2008: In 2008, Jim directed IBM Almaden Service Research helping to establish service science, applying science, technology, and T-shaped upskilling of people to business and societal transformation. I was IBM’s Director of Cognitive OpenTech – meaning I lead open source AI for the part of IBM which works with software developers globally. As a result of my work in service science, I have won a number of awards, including the Gummesson Service Research Award, Vargo and Lusch Service-Dominant Logic Award, Daniel Berg Service Systems Award, and the PICMET Fellow award for advancing service science.
- "Recently, Alan Hartman a service science researcher from University of Haifa and retired IBMer shared with me Giorgione’s painting –the Three Ages of Man. Looking at the artwork - now that I am 65 years old and on the verge of retiring from IBM on June 30th - it made me reflect, that my own career has spanned the study of three types of systems –natural systems, cognitive systems, and service systems.  By far the most complex and fascinating to me are service systems –because they deal with people and organizations (what I like to call responsible entities) applying knowledge to create mutual benefits, or what mathematicians, computer scientists, and economists call better and better win-win games. Service science is the transdisciplinary study of the evolving ecology of service systems, types of responsible entities socially learning from each other better and better non-zero-sum modes of interaction. For example, competing companies working together in open source communities to create the software that runs the world. I see this everyday in Linux Foundation AI & Data Foundation for improving open source software, and I see it everyday in ISSIP - the International Society of Service Innovation Professionals for upskilling people.  Responsible entities, people, businesses, universities, governments, and even families can and do socially learn better and better win-win games that benefit all stakeholders. We live in a world where service is fundamental. I will say that again, we all live in an amazing world where service is fundamental - fundamental to quality of life, fundamental to business, fundamental to customer experience, and fundamental to citizen experience. And now Artificial Intelligence (AI) is poised to take service to entirely new levels of quality, productivity, compliance, innovation, equity, resilience, and sustainability.  It is an exciting time to be a service scientist.  It is an exciting time to be a practitioner on a service journey - and I have many people to thank for my own service journey that has brought me here today. (next slides)." The Three Ages of Man (Giorgione) - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Three_Ages_of_Man_(Giorgione) Thanks to Alan Hartman (retired IBM, U Haifa) for his inspiration on Three Ages of Man - https://www.slideshare.net/alanhartman/what-really-counts and recording - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lz88flBbI1k In 2002, Paul Maglio asked me to return to IBM Research (from IBM Venture Capital Relations) and lead a Human Sciences team. My advice was to call it Service Research and align with IBM Global Services business.  From 2002 onward, Nick Donofrio, Doug Elix, Irving-Wladawsky Berger, Paul Horn, Robert Morris, Greg Goldman, and numerous other IBM Executives provided support for working with universities and governments around the world to help establish Service Science Management and Engineering. Service innovation integrates technology and business skills – a fantastic technology will go nowhere, without a value proposition, and people with skills to utilize it. In 2006, during a visit to IBM Almaden for a service science update to IBM CEO Sam Palmisano and IBM Board of Directors – the Smarter Planet initiative was conceived by many of the same executives in attendance. Sam Palisano (SP) liked Smarter Planet (SP) – it aligned with service science well.  In 2004, Henry Chesbrough asked if I knew how IBM helped start Computer Science – and by 2006, we had the special issue of Service Science in the Communications of the ACM!  In 2004, Roland Rust introduced me to the “big tent” approach to service research. The big tent rang true at IBM. Service marketing more than any other single discipline seems to strive for “big tent” – and this is truly remarkable!  Rust R (2004) A Call for a Wider Range of Service Research. Journal of Service Research.  In 2004, Bob Lusch visited IBM Almaden as part of a delegation from the Sloan Foundation looking at the future of skills and professional science master’s degree. During the meeting, when service science came up – Bob slid a copy of “Evolving to a New Dominant Logic for Marketing” to me, and I started to read it, while the discussion continued. My eyes got big, I kept reading. My eyes got bigger. I kept reading. Paul and I had been working on a paper, but this was 100x better. In 2005, I finally had a chance to discuss Service Dominant Logic with Steve Vargo. With Bob and then Steve, two of the biggest inspiring moments for me on the service research journey.  In 2005, Christopher Lovelock, Evert Gummesson and I discussed “Whither Service Marketing” – new insights emerged for me. At the same time Ray Fisk, emphasized service design and arts, and Evert was pointing me at work on public policy. Papers began to appear on SSME+DAPP (Design Art Public Policy). Both Ray and Evert’s contribution to the first Handbook of Service Science, truly helped solidify the field, history and future perspectives. MaryJo Bitner’s and David Bowen’s support for the handbook project always was instrumental to the big tent approach and connecting the past to the present and possible futures of the field. By 2010, we had the first handbook complete. Irene Ng caused me to re-think service systems and value several times – helping both on theory development as well as data-driven applications and market creation – huge opportunities for the field.  In 2006, Bo Edvardsson inspired me with an early view of sustainable service – that I still think about to this day. Bo has made support for the Nordic service community a great opportunity for me over the years.  Since 2006 the work of Alexandra Medina-Borja in the area of Service Systems Research has been on my radar, and in 2012 when Alex joined NSF on a rotation, her leadership has advanced smart service systems research, and connected academia and industry to make progress.  In 2007, Francesco Polese invited me to support the community in Europe through the Naples Forum on Service – with the great vision of the three pillars and striving for integration in the big tent of service research.  In 2008, Guangjie Ren and began collaborating on the Cambridge SSME report, and by 2010 he was an IBM Almaden Service researcher, part of a team creating great tools for IBM clients and service professionals. The Cognitive Component Business Model is still to me the foundation of a service system simulation tool needed to advance the field. So many other Almaden Service Researcher created innovation to advance the business – it was these projects that kept service science grounded in business reality. Later, Rama Akkiraju joined Almaden, and helped drive new service engineering directions as well as connections between service research and cognitive computing/AI.  In 2009, Jochen Wirtz and I sat on a balcony high-rise in Singapore – saying a toast to Christopher Lovelock – and excitedly conspiring about the future of the field – anticipating growing technological capabilities, and awaiting service robots and the rise of Trusted AI in service.  In 2011, Sam Palmisano (IBM CEO) selected SSME to be listed as an IBM Centennial Icon of Progress.  In 2012, Alessio Giuiusa was a student at University of Rome and visited for several months to learn more about service science and experience IBM Research in California – and today I am proud that he is a General Manager at Amazon leading their huge Rome distribution Center. So many students and visiting faculty as well as industry professionals over the years have benefitted from time at Almaden – all unique inspirations.  In 2015, Javier Reynoso suggested we plan our paper on “Quantum Service.” Still thinking about that one.  In 2020, I am ready for my cognitive assistant. Our human, episodic memories are so fallible. Some of my memories of the journey are captured in my CV, others in my slideshare account or on my service science blog – others in random places on the web if I just search (slide 20, SSME leadership team at IBM). In future wiser service systems, our cognitive mediators will (in some ways) know us better than we know ourselves – and that can be a good thing. Cognitive mediators will exist for service systems at all levels, not just people and things (digital twins), but organizations, universities, cities, nations as well. The global service systems ecology modeling too is still needed.  These memories of moments of inspiration from key people continues to sustain me on the journey!
- For those wondering what the common denominator is between service science and artificial intelligence – it is trust.
- For more on upskilling, I recommend these two books.