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Hype Cycle 2015
Source: Gartner 2015
Autonomous 

Vehicles
time
expectations
Peak of 

Inflated 

Expectations
Source: Gartner 2015
time
expectations
Autonomous 

Vehicles
Peak of 

Inflated 

Expectations
Hype Cycle 2015
The road to „robots“
Driver
only
Assistance
systems
Partly
autonomous
Highly
autonomous
Fully
autonomous
Driver
less
today...
The road to „robots“
since 1958

„Cruise Control“
today 2020 2030 2040
Driver
only
Assistance
systems
Partly
autonomous
Hi...
„Shelley“ 2009
„Shelley“ - Pikes Peak 2010
„James“ - Nevada 2012
„Bobby“ - Hockenheim 2014
„Jack“ - Las Vegas 2015
„Robby“ - Sonoma 2015
More safety
>90% of all accidents are caused by human error.
More efficiency
Self-driving cars will use space and energy in a more efficient way.
More flexibility
Mobility grids of self-driving cars will reduce waiting times for taxis.
More comfort
Piloted driving will reduce the passengers stress level significantly.
More fun
Piloted driving feels like a rollercoaster ride.
Today we spend 1hour
per day operating a car
Leisure &
Relaxation: 

45%
Source: Audi Research
Work: 

30%
Source: Audi Research
Entertainment:
25%
Source: Audi Research
Source: Audi Research
The extra hour
Daily increase of
media consumption
by >10%work in progress
Transportation
is next on the
disruptors list
The extra hour
Transportation
is next on the
disruptors list
drive
sleep
drive
sleep
The extra hour
Moreover:
work in progress
>95% of the day cars 

remain unused
The extra hour
Our cars will do
other things
Piloted driving
will become the
heartbeat of our
future economy
The extra hour
Piloted driving
will become the
heartbeat of our
future economy
PILOTED
DRIVING
PILOTED
DRIVING
MORE
TIME
USER BENEFIT
MORE
FUN
PILOTED
DRIVING
MORE
TIME
USER BENEFIT
PILOTED
DRIVING
MORE
EFFICIENCY
MORE
TIME
USER BENEFIT
MORE
FUN
PILOTED
DRIVING
MORE
EFFICIENCY
MORE
TIME
MORE
FLEXIBILITY
USER BENEFIT
MORE
FUN
PILOTED
DRIVING
MORE
EFFICIENCY
MORE
SAFETY
MORE
TIME
USER BENEFIT
MORE
FUN
MORE
FLEXIBILITY
PILOTED
DRIVING
MORE
EFFICIENCY
MORE
SAFETY
MORE
COMFORT
MORE
TIME
USER BENEFIT
MORE
FUN
MORE
FLEXIBILITY
PILOTED
DRIVING
MORE
EFFICIENCY
MORE
SAFETY
MORE
COMFORT
MORE
TIME
AUTOMOTIVE
INDUSTRY
USER BENEFIT
AFFECTED INDUSTRY
MORE...
PILOTED
DRIVING
MORE
EFFICIENCY
MORE
SAFETY
MORE
COMFORT
MORE
TIME
AUTOMOTIVE
INDUSTRY
TRANSPORT/

LOGISTICS
USER BENEFIT
...
PILOTED
DRIVING
MORE
EFFICIENCY
MORE
SAFETY
MORE
COMFORT
MORE
TIME
AUTOMOTIVE
INDUSTRY
TRANSPORT/

LOGISTICS
RETAIL
INDUST...
PILOTED
DRIVING
MORE
EFFICIENCY
MORE
SAFETY
MORE
COMFORT
MORE
TIME
TRAVEL
INDUSTRY
AUTOMOTIVE
INDUSTRY
TRANSPORT/

LOGISTI...
PILOTED
DRIVING
MORE
EFFICIENCY
MORE
SAFETY
MORE
COMFORT
MORE
TIME
PUBLIC
SECTOR
TRAVEL
INDUSTRY
AUTOMOTIVE
INDUSTRY
TRANS...
PILOTED
DRIVING
MORE
EFFICIENCY
MORE
SAFETY
MORE
COMFORT
MORE
TIME
PUBLIC
SECTOR
TRAVEL
INDUSTRY
AUTOMOTIVE
INDUSTRY
TRANS...
MORE
FUN
PILOTED
DRIVING
MORE
EFFICIENCY
MORE
SAFETY
MORE
COMFORT
MORE
TIME
MORE
FLEXIBILITY
PUBLIC
SECTOR
TRAVEL
INDUSTRY...
PILOTED
DRIVING
MORE
EFFICIENCY
MORE
SAFETY
MORE
COMFORT
MORE
TIME
PUBLIC
SECTOR
TRAVEL
INDUSTRY
AUTOMOTIVE
INDUSTRY
TRANS...
PILOTED
DRIVING
MORE
EFFICIENCY
MORE
SAFETY
MORE
COMFORT
MORE
TIME
NURSING
HOMES
PUBLIC
SECTOR
TRAVEL
INDUSTRY
AUTOMOTIVE
...
PILOTED
DRIVING
MORE
EFFICIENCY
MORE
SAFETY
MORE
COMFORT
MORE
TIME
NURSING
HOMES
PUBLIC
TRANSPORT
ENERGY
SUPPLY
INFRA-
STR...
PILOTED
DRIVING
MORE
EFFICIENCY
MORE
SAFETY
MORE
COMFORT
MORE
TIME
NURSING
HOMES
PUBLIC
TRANSPORT
ENERGY
SUPPLY
INFRA-
STR...
MORE
FUN
PILOTED
DRIVING
MORE
EFFICIENCY
MORE
SAFETY
MORE
COMFORT
MORE
TIME
MORE
FLEXIBILITY
NURSING
HOMES
PUBLIC
TRANSPOR...
How we will
live
@Nils_Wollny
nils.wollny@audi.de
Nils Wollny: The Extra Hour
Nils Wollny: The Extra Hour
Nils Wollny: The Extra Hour
Nils Wollny: The Extra Hour
Nils Wollny: The Extra Hour
Nils Wollny: The Extra Hour
Nils Wollny: The Extra Hour
Nils Wollny: The Extra Hour
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Nils Wollny: The Extra Hour

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Autonomous vehicles are at the top of the hype cycle right now – which means we’re five to 10 years from the plateau of productivity. Full autonomous driving may not happen until 2030, and there are plenty of ethical and legal challenges to be overcome.

*Talk at NEXT 15*

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Nils Wollny: The Extra Hour

  1. 1. Hype Cycle 2015 Source: Gartner 2015 Autonomous 
 Vehicles time expectations Peak of 
 Inflated 
 Expectations
  2. 2. Source: Gartner 2015 time expectations Autonomous 
 Vehicles Peak of 
 Inflated 
 Expectations Hype Cycle 2015
  3. 3. The road to „robots“ Driver only Assistance systems Partly autonomous Highly autonomous Fully autonomous Driver less today 2020 2030 2040since 1958
 „Cruise Control“
  4. 4. The road to „robots“ since 1958
 „Cruise Control“ today 2020 2030 2040 Driver only Assistance systems Partly autonomous Highly autonomous Fully autonomous Driver- less
  5. 5. „Shelley“ 2009
  6. 6. „Shelley“ - Pikes Peak 2010
  7. 7. „James“ - Nevada 2012
  8. 8. „Bobby“ - Hockenheim 2014
  9. 9. „Jack“ - Las Vegas 2015
  10. 10. „Robby“ - Sonoma 2015
  11. 11. More safety >90% of all accidents are caused by human error.
  12. 12. More efficiency Self-driving cars will use space and energy in a more efficient way.
  13. 13. More flexibility Mobility grids of self-driving cars will reduce waiting times for taxis.
  14. 14. More comfort Piloted driving will reduce the passengers stress level significantly.
  15. 15. More fun Piloted driving feels like a rollercoaster ride.
  16. 16. Today we spend 1hour per day operating a car
  17. 17. Leisure & Relaxation: 
 45% Source: Audi Research
  18. 18. Work: 
 30% Source: Audi Research
  19. 19. Entertainment: 25% Source: Audi Research
  20. 20. Source: Audi Research
  21. 21. The extra hour Daily increase of media consumption by >10%work in progress
  22. 22. Transportation is next on the disruptors list
  23. 23. The extra hour Transportation is next on the disruptors list
  24. 24. drive sleep
  25. 25. drive sleep
  26. 26. The extra hour Moreover: work in progress
  27. 27. >95% of the day cars 
 remain unused
  28. 28. The extra hour Our cars will do other things
  29. 29. Piloted driving will become the heartbeat of our future economy
  30. 30. The extra hour Piloted driving will become the heartbeat of our future economy
  31. 31. PILOTED DRIVING
  32. 32. PILOTED DRIVING MORE TIME USER BENEFIT
  33. 33. MORE FUN PILOTED DRIVING MORE TIME USER BENEFIT
  34. 34. PILOTED DRIVING MORE EFFICIENCY MORE TIME USER BENEFIT MORE FUN
  35. 35. PILOTED DRIVING MORE EFFICIENCY MORE TIME MORE FLEXIBILITY USER BENEFIT MORE FUN
  36. 36. PILOTED DRIVING MORE EFFICIENCY MORE SAFETY MORE TIME USER BENEFIT MORE FUN MORE FLEXIBILITY
  37. 37. PILOTED DRIVING MORE EFFICIENCY MORE SAFETY MORE COMFORT MORE TIME USER BENEFIT MORE FUN MORE FLEXIBILITY
  38. 38. PILOTED DRIVING MORE EFFICIENCY MORE SAFETY MORE COMFORT MORE TIME AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY USER BENEFIT AFFECTED INDUSTRY MORE FUN MORE FLEXIBILITY
  39. 39. PILOTED DRIVING MORE EFFICIENCY MORE SAFETY MORE COMFORT MORE TIME AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY TRANSPORT/
 LOGISTICS USER BENEFIT AFFECTED INDUSTRY MORE FUN MORE FLEXIBILITY
  40. 40. PILOTED DRIVING MORE EFFICIENCY MORE SAFETY MORE COMFORT MORE TIME AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY TRANSPORT/
 LOGISTICS RETAIL INDUSTRY USER BENEFIT AFFECTED INDUSTRY MORE FUN MORE FLEXIBILITY
  41. 41. PILOTED DRIVING MORE EFFICIENCY MORE SAFETY MORE COMFORT MORE TIME TRAVEL INDUSTRY AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY TRANSPORT/
 LOGISTICS RETAIL INDUSTRY USER BENEFIT AFFECTED INDUSTRY MORE FUN MORE FLEXIBILITY
  42. 42. PILOTED DRIVING MORE EFFICIENCY MORE SAFETY MORE COMFORT MORE TIME PUBLIC SECTOR TRAVEL INDUSTRY AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY TRANSPORT/
 LOGISTICS RETAIL INDUSTRY USER BENEFIT AFFECTED INDUSTRY MORE FUN MORE FLEXIBILITY
  43. 43. PILOTED DRIVING MORE EFFICIENCY MORE SAFETY MORE COMFORT MORE TIME PUBLIC SECTOR TRAVEL INDUSTRY AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY TRANSPORT/
 LOGISTICS RETAIL INDUSTRY USER BENEFIT AFFECTED INDUSTRY MORE FUN MORE FLEXIBILITY FINANCE/ INSURANCE
  44. 44. MORE FUN PILOTED DRIVING MORE EFFICIENCY MORE SAFETY MORE COMFORT MORE TIME MORE FLEXIBILITY PUBLIC SECTOR TRAVEL INDUSTRY AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY TRANSPORT/
 LOGISTICS RETAIL INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AFTER- MARKET USER BENEFIT AFFECTED INDUSTRY EXPECTED CHANGE FINANCE/ INSURANCE
  45. 45. PILOTED DRIVING MORE EFFICIENCY MORE SAFETY MORE COMFORT MORE TIME PUBLIC SECTOR TRAVEL INDUSTRY AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY TRANSPORT/
 LOGISTICS RETAIL INDUSTRY RENTALS/
 MOBILITY DELIVERY SERVICES REMOVER TAXIS PRODUCTION AFTER- MARKET USER BENEFIT AFFECTED INDUSTRY EXPECTED CHANGE MORE FUN MORE FLEXIBILITY FINANCE/ INSURANCE
  46. 46. PILOTED DRIVING MORE EFFICIENCY MORE SAFETY MORE COMFORT MORE TIME NURSING HOMES PUBLIC SECTOR TRAVEL INDUSTRY AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY TRANSPORT/
 LOGISTICS RETAIL INDUSTRY RENTALS/
 MOBILITY DELIVERY SERVICES REMOVER TAXIS PRODUCTION AFTER- MARKET INSURANCES FINANCING HEALTH USER BENEFIT AFFECTED INDUSTRY EXPECTED CHANGE MORE FUN MORE FLEXIBILITY FINANCE/ INSURANCE
  47. 47. PILOTED DRIVING MORE EFFICIENCY MORE SAFETY MORE COMFORT MORE TIME NURSING HOMES PUBLIC TRANSPORT ENERGY SUPPLY INFRA- STRUCTURE PUBLIC SECTOR TRAVEL INDUSTRY AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY TRANSPORT/
 LOGISTICS RETAIL INDUSTRY RENTALS/
 MOBILITY DELIVERY SERVICES REMOVER TAXIS PRODUCTION AFTER- MARKET INSURANCES FINANCING HEALTH USER BENEFIT AFFECTED INDUSTRY EXPECTED CHANGE MORE FUN MORE FLEXIBILITY FINANCE/ INSURANCE
  48. 48. PILOTED DRIVING MORE EFFICIENCY MORE SAFETY MORE COMFORT MORE TIME NURSING HOMES PUBLIC TRANSPORT ENERGY SUPPLY INFRA- STRUCTURE PUBLIC SECTOR TRAVEL INDUSTRY AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY TRANSPORT/
 LOGISTICS RETAIL INDUSTRY SHOPPING RENTALS/
 MOBILITY DELIVERY SERVICES DOMESTIC FLIGHTS BUSINESS HOTELS REAL ESTATE MEDIAREMOVER TAXIS PRODUCTION AFTER- MARKET INSURANCES FINANCING HEALTH USER BENEFIT AFFECTED INDUSTRY EXPECTED CHANGE MORE FUN MORE FLEXIBILITY FINANCE/ INSURANCE
  49. 49. MORE FUN PILOTED DRIVING MORE EFFICIENCY MORE SAFETY MORE COMFORT MORE TIME MORE FLEXIBILITY NURSING HOMES PUBLIC TRANSPORT ENERGY SUPPLY INFRA- STRUCTURE PUBLIC SECTOR FINANCE/ INSURANCE TRAVEL INDUSTRY AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY TRANSPORT/
 LOGISTICS RETAIL INDUSTRY SHOPPING RENTALS/
 MOBILITY DELIVERY SERVICES – DOMESTIC FLIGHTS BUSINESS HOTELS REAL ESTATE MEDIAREMOVER TAXIS PRODUCTION AFTER- MARKET INSURANCES FINANCING HEALTH – – – – – USER BENEFIT AFFECTED INDUSTRY EXPECTED CHANGE OPPORTUNITY AREAS
  50. 50. How we will live
  51. 51. @Nils_Wollny nils.wollny@audi.de
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Autonomous vehicles are at the top of the hype cycle right now – which means we’re five to 10 years from the plateau of productivity. Full autonomous driving may not happen until 2030, and there are plenty of ethical and legal challenges to be overcome. *Talk at NEXT 15*

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