1. Demand Forecasting Techniques

2. DEMAND FORECASTING An activity of determining qty. of goods to be purchased in Future Necessity for forecasting Demand Stock Effects Market Response effects Factors affecting Demand forecast

3. Factors involved in Demand Forecasting How far ahead? a. Long term – eg., petroleum, paper, shipping. Tactical decisions. Within the limits of resources already available. b. Short-term – eg., clothes. Strategic decisions. Extending or reducing the limits of resources. 2.Undertaken at three levels: Macro-level Industry level eg., trade associations Firm level 3. Should the forecast be general or specific (product-wise)? 4. Problems or methods of forecasting for “new” vis-à-vis “well established” products. 5. Classification of products – producer goods, consumer durables, consumer goods, services. 6. Special factors peculiar to the product and the market – risk and uncertainty. (eg., ladies’ dresses)

4. Short Term forecast Scheduling of production to avoid problems of over production and under- production. Proper management of inventories Evolving suitable price strategy to maintain consistent sales Formulating a suitable sales strategy in accordance with the changing pattern of demand and extent of competition among the firms. Forecasting financial requirements for the short period.

5. Long Term Forecast Planning for a new project, expansion and modernization of an existing unit, diversification and technological up gradation. Assessing long term financial needs. It takes time to raise financial resources. Arranging suitable manpower. It can help a firm to arrange for specialized labour force and personnel. Evolving a suitable strategy for changing pattern of consumption.

6. Determinants of Demand 1. Non-durable consumer goods: Purchasing power – disposable personal income (personal income – direct taxes and other deductions). Published by C.S.O. Price. Demography: 2. Durable consumer goods: Choice between using the goods longer by repairing it, or disposing it off and replacing it with a new one. Require special facilities for their use, eg., roads for automobiles. Household demand vis-à-vis individual demand. Family characteristics. Total demand consists of a. New-owner demand and, b. Replacement demand Price and credit conditions.

7. Determinants of Demand 3. Capital goods: – used for further production. Demand will depend upon the specific markets they serve and the end uses for which they are bought. Data required for estimating the demand for capital goods: The growth prospects of the user industries. The norm of consumption of capital goods per unit of installed capacity. The velocity of their use.

8. Methods of Demand Forecasting Qualitative Methods Unaided Judgements/ Expert Opinion/ Hunch Method Collective Opinion Perdiction Markets Delphi Technique JudgementalBootstraping Simulated Interactions Conjoint analysis Test marketing

9. Test marketing Buyers’ Intentions Consumer Clinics Neuro Science Market Experiments Virtual shopping and virtual Management

10. Quantitative Methods Time Series Moving averages Leading Indicator method Correlation and regression Equations Extrapolation