1. Mobilising people to protect and restore our
environment – the roles of paradigms,
cosmologies, theories, values and beliefs
(Psycho-history 101)
Institute for Governance and Policy Studies, VUW
Rick Boven
4 October 2013

2. ENTERING THE AGE OF SCARCITY?
REAL PRICE INDEX: 2000 = 100
350
300
Food
250
Metals &
minerals
200
150
100
50
Energy
0
Note: Base 2000=100
Source: The World Bank (2011b).
2

3. TWO-THIRDS OF MAJOR ECOSYSTEM SERVICES
PROVIDED BY NATURE ARE IN DECLINE
Improving
Declining
• Crops, livestock, aquacul
ture production
• Fish stocks and wild foods
• Global climate
regulation (via increased
albedo due to forest
clearing)
• Fresh water supply
• Productive land quality
• Fresh water quality
• Wood fuel
• Species diversity including crop varieties
Mixed
• Species groups closer to extinction
• Atmosphere cleansing of pollutants
• Timber and forests
• Local climate regulation via land cover
• Regulation of water
flows
• Natural buffers against extreme events
• Biological control
• Recreation and tourism
opportunities
• Wild and domestic pollinators
• Medicinal resources
• Quantity and quality of aesthetically
pleasing natural landscapes
• Sacred groves and species
3

4. CARBON DIOXIDE CONCENTRATION IN
ATMOSPHERE, 1791-2011, PPM
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Source: NOAA, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (2012); Neftal et al. (1994).
4

5. PEOPLE WHO WORE FUNNY CLOTHES AND HAD
MANY STRANGE AND WRONG IDEAS
Marriage of Louis XIV to Maria Theresa of Spain, c.1660
5

6. MORE PEOPLE WEARING FUNNY CLOTHES WITH
STRANGE IDEAS
Photo credit: iStock
6

7. HOW PARADIGMS CHANGE
Old paradigm begins to fail
• Unacceptable outcomes
• Inconsistent observations
Someone re-organises and extends concepts to form a new
paradigm
Paradigm change process
• Explain why old paradigm has become obsolete
• Show how new paradigm overcomes the deficiencies of the
old paradigm
• Change the views of leaders or change the leaders
7

8. MY HYPOTHESIS:
“The way we think about managing economyenvironment trade-offs affects the future we will
experience”
Short term
trade-offs
Long term
co-dependence
Healthy
environment
Economic
costs
Environment
damage
Strong
economy
8

9. EXAMPLES OF DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
ECONOMICS AND STRATEGY
Economics
Strategy
Assume same costs and
prices for all
Discover cost and price
differences, and reasons
Assume static industry
economics
Understand industry
evolution and options to
influence
Predict equilibrium
outcomes
Create sustainable cost
and price advantages
9

10. TYPES OF IDEAS
Type
Meaning
Cosmology
Entrenched system of beliefs about how and
why the world works as it does
Paradigm
A framework for understanding an important
aspect of the world
Theory
A rule that can be used to develop predictions
Value
A source of utility for individuals
Belief
A probability statement about an expected
outcome from given conditions
In conventional psychological analysis
behaviour is determined by values and
beliefs
10

11. UNRECOGNISED BUT DOMINANT MODERN
ASSUMPTIONS?
Cornucopian
A futurist who believes that continued
progress and provision of material items
for mankind can be met by similarly
continued advances in technology
Panglossian
Unwarranted optimism, the belief that all
works out to be the best it can be; blindly
or naively optimistic
11

12. PUNCTUATED EQUILIBRIUM FROM ECOLOGY
Evolution
Stable environment
Rapidly changing environment
Time
Source: Adapted from http://anthro.palomar.edu
12

13. CLIMATE MODELLERS IMPLY GRADUAL,
CONTINUOUS CHANGE IN OUR FUTURE . . .
13

14. . . . BUT THE RECORD SHOWS THAT RAPID
CLIMATE CHANGE IS NORMAL
Temperature
volatility is normal
7 degrees Celsius
change in 20 years
Unusual stability
for 10,000 years
14

15. WE MAY UNDERSTAND HISTORY AS
DESCRIPTIONS OF THE PAST . . .
Kings of England and Wales
1272-1307
Edward I
House of Plantagenet
1307-1327
Edward II
House of Plantagenet
1327-1377
Edward III
House of Plantagenet
1377-1399
Richard II
House of Plantagenet
1399-1413
Henry IV
House of Lancaster
1413-1422
Henry V
House of Lancaster
1422-1461
Henry VI
House of Lancaster
1461-1483
Edward IV
House of York
1483
Edward V
House of York
1483-1485
Richard III
House of York
1485-1509
Henry VII
House of Tudor
15

16. . . . OR PERHAPS AS INEXORABLE
TECHNOLOGICAL ADVANCE . . .
Genomics
Computers
Electricity
Printing
Guns
Iron
Wheel
Farming
-10,000
-1,000
-100
-10
Years before present
16

17. . . . THAT WE CAN PROJECT INTO THE FUTURE
Interstellar travel
Immortality
Solar system exploration
Artificial intelligence
Regenerating organs
17

18. WHAT MODERN SOCIETY LEARNED FROM
GODEL AND POPPER
Philosopher
Learning
Godel
A system of sufficient complexity can
generate an infinite number of possibilities
Popper
History unfolds by technology advance and
human choice.
Technology inventions and human choices
are not predictable.
Therefore history is not predictable
Modern
conclusion : Don’t try to anticipate the future
18

19. HUNTER-GATHERER ERA
Food potential limited by
productivity of
forests, savannahs, coastlines
Sustainable environmental productivity
Rate of resource use
Food production limited
by hunting and gathering
technologies
Ice age
10,000 BC
19

20. ERA OF TRADITIONAL AGRICULTURE
Dramatic
increase in food
productivity of
land due to
Sustainable
switch to
environmental
agriculture
Food potential limited by
productivity of farmland
productivity
Rate of
resource use
Food production limited by
traditional agriculture
technology and human and
animal energy
Ice age
1800
10,000 BC
20

21. BREAK-OUT TO GROWTH PHASE
Sustainable food productivity increases
• Shipping of resources to Western economies
• Fossil fuel energy
• Agricultural technologies
Sustainable
environmental
productivity
Rate of
resource use
Ice age 10,000 BC
Output grows
rapidly.
Environmental
constraints
irrelevant.
1800
2013
21

22. ESTIMATED GLOBAL OUTPUT
18
16
14
12
Projected
for 2050
GDP per
Capita, 10
1990
Int.$000s 8
6
4
2000
2
1950
0 1800
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Global population, billions
Source: Maddison (2010); U.S. Census Bureau (2011b).
22

23. ENVIRONMENTAL CONSTRAINTS RETURN
Food potential limited by agricultural
productivity and available land
Sustainable
environmental
productivity
Rate of
resource use
1800
2013
2050
23

24. HUMAN HISTORY AS PUNCTUATED EQUILIBRIUM
Eras
Industrialised
agriculture
Traditional
agriculture
Hunter-gatherer
Transitions
Time
24

25. OVERSHOOT EMERGES
By 2050, 2.0 Earths
would be required to
operate sustainably
In 1980, 1.0 Earth
required to
operate sustainably
Eco-systems in decline
1980
2050
25

26. WHICH FUTURE?
Earths required
Growth forever
2.0
Overshoot
crisis
Sustainability
1.0
Soft landing
2013
2050
26

27. STRATEGY CHOICE – MAXIMISE GROWTH OR
REDUCE RISK?
State of the world
Cornucopian
Maximise
Growth
Strategy
Choice Reduce
Risk
Constrained
Technology
saves us
Overshoot
crisis
Slower
growth
Soft
landing
27

28. WHAT’S WRONG WITH THE CORNUCOPIAN
ASSUMPTION?
Constraints status
Constraints outlook
Food
Real land, water, energy and Yield increase slowing.
food cost increasing.
Land in production being
Population growing.
degraded.
Reserve land scarce.
Climate
Greenhouse gas emissions
accelerating.
Emerging consensus we
won’t prevent 2 degrees
Celsius increase.
Energy
Costs increasing and fossil
fuel use growing.
Fossil fuel growth plans
incompatible with climate
stability.
Ecosystems Value of services provided is
several times value of
measured global economy.
In absolute decline.
Pressures increasing.
28

29. SOME BAD ECONOMIC THEORIES AND PROPOSED
CORRECTIONS
Economic theory
Proposed corrections
Individuals are self-interested pursuers Individuals have diverse motivations
of consumption
including valuing outcomes for others
The purpose of economic policy is to
provide consumption growth
Economic policy should avoid creating
unacceptable risks
Economic activity is small relative to
the size of the environment
Economic activity is large relative to
the size of the environment
There are free gifts from the
environment and free disposals to the
environment
The economy and environment are
co-dependent
Business activity should be
unconstrained
Business activities should be
constrained if they harm the future
productivity of the environment
29

30. THE BAD THEORIES USED TO BE GOOD
Economic theory
Function
Individuals are self-interested pursuers Simplified the mathematics
of consumption
Encouraged economic growth
The purpose of economic policy is to
provide consumption growth
Encouraged economic growth
Provided individual utility
Economic activity is small relative to
the size of the environment
Was true
There are free gifts from the
environment and free disposals to the
environment
Not a big problem with a small
economy
Business activity should be
unconstrained
Externalities did not threaten
civilisation
30

31. COBB-DOUGLAS PRODUCTION FUNCTION
(Y=AKαLβ)
Capital
Technology
Output
Consumption
Labour
Technology converts capital and labour inputs to output
Some output is consumed and some is reinvested to replace and
increase capital and labour stocks
There is no limit constraining output growth
31

32. THE TWO SIDES OF THE PARADIGM WAR
Economic –
20th Century thinking
Environmental –
21st Century thinking
(Modern conventional
economists, many political and
business leaders)
(Ecological
economists, scientists, activists)
Economy is small relative to
environment
Economy is large relative to
environment
The future will be an
extension of the past
The future will be different
from the past
Societal objective should be
to maximise GDP
Societal objective should be
to reduce risk
32

33. “STAGES” OF THE CONSUMPTION VALUE
Argument
Humans are self-interested (Hobbes)
When?
17th
Humans seek utility from pleasure,
avoiding pain (Bentham)
Humans get utility from commodities
(Jevons)
Output and then consumption
maximisation as national goal
Consumption entrenched as primary
goal for individuals
Consumption goal exported to
emerging economies
18th
19th
1930s through
1950s
Late 20th
Late 20th
33

34. FUNCTIONS OF “SINS”
Value
Traditional
Agriculture Sins
Growth Phase
Virtues
Greed
Limits consumption that Encourages activity and
depletes scarce
wealth accumulation
resources
Envy
Prevents efforts to lift
consumption to match
others
Encourages efforts to lift
consumption to match
others
Pride
Avoid conspicuous
consumption
Encourage conspicuous
consumption
Gluttony
Limits consumption of
food, which is what
limits population
Encourages consumption
of food, stimulating growth
34

35. HISTORY EMERGES FROM CO-EVOLUTION
Outcomes
Outcomes
Outcomes
Behaviour
Behaviour
Behaviour
Ideas
Ideas
Ideas
Ideas
Source: Adapted from Boven, 2003.
35

36. PROPOSED VALUES AND THEIR ENVIRONMENTAL
FUNCTION
PROPOSED VALUE
FUNCTION
Live in harmony with nature
Value environmental outcomes
Be a custodian for future generations
Avoid high discount rates that
encourage a short term view
Take no more than you need
Reduce ecological footprint
Contribute more than you take
Encourage productivity
Treat others as you would have them
treat you
Avoid externalities and tragedy of the
commons
Look after your physical and mental
health
Don’t become a burden
Learn and teach
Build capability
Avoid superiority
Reduce subjective competition, which
creates prisoner’s dilemma games
36

37. FORCES PREVENTING VIGOROUS
ENVIRONMENT PROTECTION BY OUR LEADERS
Governments
Businesses
Must promote policies that
appeal to voters, who want
more consumption
Providers of goods and
services wanted by customers,
who aspire to consume more
Short term focus because
they face election every 3 to
5 years
Purpose is to grow shareholder
wealth
Subject to influence from
wealthy individuals and
businesses, both wanting
more wealth for themselves
Directors are legally required to
act in the interests of the
company
Discount rates and capital
markets encourage focus on
short term
37

38. PROPOSED INFLUENCE STRATEGY TO CHANGE
IDEAS AND OUTCOMES
Initiators
Opinion-leaders
Other individuals
Governments
Businesses
38

39. LESSONS FROM CATASTROPHIC POLICY
FAILURES
“In the first stage, mental standstill fixes the principles and
boundaries governing a problem.
In the second stage, when dissonance and failing function
begin to appear, the initial principles rigidify.
This is a period when, if wisdom were operative, reexamination and rethinking and a change of course are
possible, but they are as rare as rubies in a backyard.
Rigidifying leads to increase of investment and the need to
protect egos; policy founded upon error multiple never
retreats.
The greater the investment and the more involved in it the
sponsor’s ego, the more unacceptable is disengagement.
In the third stage, pursuit of failure enlarges the damages until
it causes the fall of Troy, the defection from the Papacy, the
loss of a trans-Atlantic empire, the classic humiliation in
Vietnam.
39

40. MORE PEOPLE WITH STRANGE CLOTHES AND
FUNNY IDEAS
Photo credit: Corbis Images
40

41. RELEVANT PRIOR WORK
(WITH REFERENCES USED HERE)
Navigating an uncertain future: Environmental foundations for longterm success (2012) Rick Boven, Catherine Harland and Lillian Grace
Choosing your future: The role of ideas in managing trade-offs between
economic and environmental objectives (2003) Rick Boven
Both available at www.stakeholderstrategies.co.nz/our-work
41