2. 06/14/13 2
Key topics
Why study Pakistan?
Nazariya-e-Pakistan
Fault lines
Pakiban & Terrorist groups
MQM
Historical background and Great Game
Indian Role in Afghanistan
Conclusions
3. 06/14/13 3
Why Study Pakistan ?
Geopolitical location
Fallout to neighboring states
Pakistani genocide in Baluchistan to gain stranglehold of
future energy pipeline from Central Asian states
Global Islamist terrorism and nuclear proliferation
ISI is core of ‘New Islamic Caliphate’ (kingdom/empire)
Long term goal to create Islamic Caliphate from Delhi to
Chechnya with Islamabad as capital
ISI is a mixture of ‘Mukhbarat’ and ‘Khalifa’
Future trajectory of the vast region from Morocco to
Mindanao is linked to the ‘political experiment’ in Pakistan
6. 06/14/13 6
Outcomes from Pakistan crisis
Talibanization of Pakistan
Grass root fueled by atrocity of state police/administration
Reaction to one from of state atrocity atrocity to other people
Drug money controlled by ISI is key to birth of this Pakiban
Civil war breaking out in the country
Spread of State-sponsored terrorism from Af-Pak frontier
Spread of nuclear materials from Pakistan
Spread of regressive version of Islam into the subcontinent
and elsewhere
Increased cost to Indian existence, economy, polity and
world stature
If and when TSP refugees stream across to India, India will have
civil strife
7. 06/14/13 7
Uniqueness of Pakistan
First Islamic State in the modern era
First modern state based on religion.
Second is Israel.
Hope of new beginning for Muslims
Sub-continent
Worldwide
Promise betrayed
Every index of development shows negative trend
Fought numerous wars: India, East-Pakistan, Baluchistan (genocide)
and Afghanistan
Source of religion based terrorism & nuclear proliferation everywhere
Modern State theory does not explain the downward spiral
of Pakistan
8. 06/14/13 8
Modern Islamic State
Rulership
President = Sultan (presently Kiyani is the de-facto Sultan)
Madrassaization of Education
Dominance of one ethnicity
Arab = Punjabi
Language conformance
Arabic = Urdu
Spread of Religious Fervor
Numerous organizations located in Pakistan spreading “din”
Reconquista theme
Lands once “Dar-ul-Islam” have to become Islamic again (India).
Muslim majority areas cannot be under non-Muslim rule
Scope: All world, Indian-subcontinent, Europe, Africa, China
Ideology export
Goes with the spread of fervor
9. 06/14/13 9
Key Events in 2007-2010
Elections in TSP announced
Return of Nawaz Sharif and Benazir Bhutto from “exile”
Gen Kiyani appointed Chief of Army Staff
President Musharraf sheds uniform
Killing of Benazir Bhutto
Elections in TSP lead to PPP majority in most of the country
Geelani sworn as PM
Resignation of Musharraf as President
Election of Zardari as President
Not all ousted Judges restored
Talibanization of FATA continues
Reverses of TSP Military
US starts air and helicopter attacks in FATA region
Survival of Karzai Govt in Afghanistan in doubt
Economic Crisis haunts TSP
Election of Obama in USA
Mumbai Terrorist Attack
Af-Pak strategy announced by US
Gen. McChrystal dismissed
US imperative to get out of Af-Pak
10. 06/14/13 10
Special significance to India’s
Afghanistan Policy
Af-Pak strategy announced by US
Gen McChrystal dismissed
US imperative to get out of Af-Pak
Indian Strategy
• Wash hands off Karzai
• Fully back NA elements
• All $1B aid be given to NA elements
• Regularize relations w/Iran, and help establish Iranian legitimacy
in Baluchistan (Shia)
• Psy-op to increase Afghani demand to incorporate Pushtun
region across Durand line in FATA area
• Before TSP pulls on India a two front war, Pakistan should be
militarily engaged on three fronts:
1. Baluchistan front (Iran and another country providing support)
2. Northern Alliance (hitting TSP targets)
3. Indian front
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Nazariya-e-Pakistan (N-e-P)
Ideology of Pakistan
Ideology of Pakistan:
Fabricate legitimacy to illegitimate state
Slogan first coined by Gen. Sher Ali Khan, Information Minister
and former Chief of Staff of Pakistan Army
"Pakistan ka matlab kya, La ilaha illallah” :{What does Pakistan
mean, there is no God but God!}
Pakistan’s Raison d'être: No longer refuge for ‘Muslim kaum’ in the
tyranny of Hindu dominated India.
Genocide in Bangladesh, and Baluchistan not withstanding
New goal is to establish Global Islamic Caliphate
Term was also adopted by Maulana Maududi and his party
Jamaat-e-Islami(J-e-I)
Gen Yahya Khan wanted to crush Bengali Nationalism while J-
e-I included will to crush Sindh and Baloch nationalism.
Gen. Yahya Khan and Maududi came together and laid foundations
for TSPA and Deobandi branch of Islam.
(Continued …)
12. 06/14/13 12
Nazariya-e-Pakistan
Ideology of Pakistan. (Continued …)
After 1971 Zulifikar Ali Bhutto was forced to Islamize at frantic
pace, to not lose space to Islamists.
The massive defeat in 1971 and the ascendency of J-e-I led to the
Army assume role of “Guardian of Islam.”
Gen Zia coming to power led to consolidating the N-e-P concept
through wholesale changes to textbooks and complete rewriting
of fabricated history
Deobandi J-e-I and Salafist Kingdom of Saudi Arabia supported the
transformation
TSP army is has grown senior from Zia’s days to increase
radical (non-Salafist) fervor in Deobandi core and current officer
crop from old on its last leg of Deobandi office.
For ISI it is more easy to control Deobandi ulema compared to
Salafi ulema
13. 06/14/13 13
Nazariya-e-Pakistan
Understanding the terms
Early Islam institution:
Caliph (is head of Army)
Mukabarat (answerable to Caliph)
Ulema:: explain here
Zawabit: Ziauddin Barani wrote “The king must rule” i.e rulership
is in hnds of the ruler and not the ulema.
Deobandi and JeM are Ulema of ISI
Deoband ar now more extremist Islamists
Salafi will never replace Deobandi in heartlands of Pakistan
N-e-P is an attempt to inculcate among the Pakistani masses the
habit of looking at India through the prism of Deobandi variety of Islam
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Nazariya-e-Pakistan
Understanding the termsDeoband and Salafism
Similarity
Rigid extreme form of Islam
Deoband has recently acquired ethnic racism and harder Islamist overtones
Contrasts
1. Deoband : Pakistan centric,
2. Salafi: Wherever the KSA money flows
3. Deoband is a religious movement that grew strength out of political
movement
4. Salafism is a political movement that grew strength out of pseudo
religious movement, with racial overtones (KSA)
ISI
ISI should not be viewed as an Intelligence Agency
ISI is a modified version of Islamic institution of “Mukhbarat” from early
Islam, that penetrates every facet of Pakistani life.
ISI is a mixture of ‘Mukhbarat’ and ‘Khalifa’
ISI is core of ‘New Islamic Caliphate’ (kingdom/empire)
Long term goal to create Islamic Caliphate from Delhi to Chechnya with
Islamabad as capital
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Nazariya-e-Pakistan
(N-e-P) (Continued …)
The massive defeat in 1971 and secession of East Pakistan led to a
rethink of the idea that Pakistan was the guardian of Islam
They wanted to assume a more radical role of “Guardian of Islam” in
context of Indian Sub-continent as their existence was under threat at
that time and India was the enemy.
Fears of further secessions of Sindh or Balochistan
N-e-P was designed as an alternative to the cry “Islam is in danger” or
“Islam khatre main hain!”
At the very basic level N-e-P is a social re-engineering similar to Nazi
attempts to remake Germany
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Indian Perception of Pakistan
Two nation theory aka Partition theory
Hindus and Muslims are two separate nations and need two states.
Policy with an eye on Indian Muslim population
Ignores the various schisms and factions in Pakistan
More importantly ignores Pakistani self perception which is “Not
Indian”
Pakistan was never wanted to be equal to India but
superior to India in every which way
When Indians say “they are like us only” it negates the self
image of Pakistanis and hurts
There is nothing that Indians can do to assuage the Pakistani self image at this time
17. 06/14/13 17
Fault lines in Pakistan
Ethno-Regional
Punjab, Sindh, NWFP, & Balochistan
How India takes advantage: Baluchistan, increase
relationship w/Iran, and not succumb to US interest.
Baluach is Shia nation: Indian press should call it Balauchi
Nation, in all press reports.
NWFP : India has squandered the legacy of Frontier
Gandhi
Political, Economic, Water
Indus river treaty should be reviewed every 3 month
Contigent on Pakitan’s good behavior
Religious
Sunni vs Shia, Ahmediya, Christian & Hindu
Relationship w/Iran will take care of Shia part
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Fault lines in Pakistan
Pakistan Oppressed Nations Movement (PONAM)
Umbrella group of Sindhis, Balochis and Pashtuns
Mohajir Vs Non-Mohajir
Karachi City
Urban vs Rural
Karachi and Lahore vs Provinces
19. 06/14/13 19
Pakiban
Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)
Sunni (salafi/wahhabi/Deobandi) Taliban organization, normally opposed
to Barelvis
Emerged in the FATA areas of NWFP in 2007
About 40 local Taliban leaders announced the formation of TTP on Dec.
14, 2007 to centralize their command.
Amir - Baitullah Mehsud (of South Waziristan), appointed by Mullah Omar
First Naib Amir - Maulana Hafiz Gul Bahadur of North Waziristan.
Second Naib Emir - Faqir Mohammed of Bajaur
Spokesperson - Maulvi Umar
Has a shura (consultative committee) of 40 senior Taliban leaders from
the entire NWFP area (including FATA and Settled Areas)
Aim:To establish an Emirate, to enforce Sharia, to unite against the
NATO forces in Afghanistan and defeat them just as they did against
another superpower USSR, and do defensive jihad against the Pakistan
Army if it comes in the way.
20. 06/14/13 20
Rise of Pakiban
Its very clear that the border areas/NWFP (which was
created by Lord Curzon incidentally) are getting
fundamentalized / Talibanised.
A corridor is being formed with its writ on west bank of
Indus.
Add to that the recent reports of Karachi and Talibanization
of Sindh all these are portends of the coming fractures of
TSP if not de jure.
21. 06/14/13 21
Terrorist Orgs in TSP
LeJ (Lashkar-e-Jhangvi) Sunni Banned
Aug 14, 2001
SM (Sipah Mohammad) Shia Banned Aug
14, 2001
LeT (Lashkar-e-Taiba) Sunni Wahhabi
Banned by Pakistan in Jan 15, 2002.
JeM (Jaish-e-Mohammed, Army of
Mohammed) Banned by Pakistan in Jan
15, 2002.
HUM (Harkatul Mujahideen) Sunni
Deobandi Banned in Nov, 2001
Al-Badr Mujahideen
HuJI (Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami)
HuT (Hizb-ul-Tahrir, "Freedom Party")
Banned Nov 20, 2003
TNSM (Tehreek-e-Nafaz-e-Shariat-e-
Mohammadi)
HMA (Harkat-ul-Mujahideen-al-Aalmi,
meaning HUM, International)
Brigade 313
Harkat-ul-Ansar(HuA)
Jandullah (Army of Allah)
Jundullah
Sunni Tehrik
Sipah-e-Sahaba Pakistan (Army of the
Prophet's Companions)
Al-Muhajiroun
Khudamul Furqan Banned
Tanzeem-ul-Ikhwan
Zafar Group
Tariq-e-Nifaz-e-Fiqh-e-Jaafaaria (TNFJ)
Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) Banned
Lashkar-e-Islam
Tehreek Islami Lashkar-e-Mohammedi
Islamic Jihad Union (IJU)
22. 06/14/13 22
Sarkari Islamist Groups
Tehreek Islami Lashkar-e-Mohammedi
Formed in Karachi in February, 2008
Umbrella organization for SSP (Sipah-e-Sahaba-e-
Pakistan, the mother of all terror outfits), LeT, JeM and
HM.
Announced promulgation of Shariah throughout Pakistan.
Amir: Wajahat alias Sami alias Gulfam alias Mansoor
(Arrested in Karachi mid-2008)
23. 06/14/13 23
Pakiban Civil Wars
The Bangash tribesmen who are massacring the Shi'a are part of the Karlani group of
tribes, one of whose constituents is the Mehsuds as well.
• The Shi'a stand no chance at all, because they are not getting equivalent or superior weaponry, that Iran or other
country could supply, though they are getting Hazara fighters from Afghanistan.
Very soon, the Shi'a-Sunni of FATA will engulf Pakistan.
Recent reports speak of SSP (Sipah Saheba-e-Pakistan, the most militant Sunni organization)
becoming very active in Karachi and in return the Shi'a Sipah-e-Muhammed (known by various
names such as Tehreek Jaffria Pakistan & Islami Tehreek-e-Pakistan) have become active as
well.
At the same time, another war is also going on in FATA between the Barelvis and the
Deobandi/Wahhabi groups.
The Sunni Tehreek (ST, a member of Al Qaeda's International Islamic Front, IIF) has its hands
full against many warlords in FATA. That's the problem for the Taliban and Al Qaeda. They have
many warring groups within the fold. Again the Arabic saying: Me against my brothers, me and
my brothers against our father, me, my brothers and my father against our cousins . . .
A Pasthun is at peace, when he is at war!
24. 06/14/13 24
Mohajir Quami Movement
Altaf Hussain formed All Pakistan Mohajir Students Organization
(APMSO) in 1978 in Karachi
Formed Mohajir( Refugee) Quami Movement (MQM) in 1984 in
Karachi. Name changed to Muttahida (United) Quami Movement in
1997 to counter allegations of being a refugee interests party.
Allied with Benazir Bhutto’s PPP in 1988
Crackdown by Pakistan Army in 1992 led to Altaf Hussain’s exile to
London
MQM represents émigrés from all over India who are tied by language
of Urdu and do not form part of the elite ruling groups
25. 06/14/13 25
Historical background of Pakistan
Ahmed Shah Durrani’s Empire
British Expansion in Anglo- Punjab Wars
Great Game Ideas
Buffer States for British India
Modern Great Game
Oil, Energy and Geopolitics
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India’s Outer Buffers-Caroe
Caroe’s notion of buffer state of Afghanistan need to
be now restated as Baluchistan as buffer state, and NA
(mixture of Tajiks and Uzbeks) as the other buffer state
33. 06/14/13 33
Natoization of Afghanistan
US invasion of
Afghanistan after 9/11
US needed NATO
troops to takeover ISAF
while engaged in Iraq
NATO and US troops
under constant attack
from Taliban forces
sheltered in FATA/
WANA regions of
Pakistan
34. 06/14/13 34
Indian Role in Afghanistan
India always was interested in Afghanistan
Before 9/11 supported Ahmed Shah Masood and his Northern Alliance
Supported the Hamid Karzai govt. – All future aid should be disbursed to NA
element to be the Indian buffer
Reopened the consulates in Jalalabad, Peshawar
Indian Embassy building bombed. Most likely ISI supported terrorists
Built the road from Zaranj to Kabul providing the alternate land route to one
controlled by Taliban
Built the power grid to supply power from Tajikistan
Assistance ~ $1Billion and is the largest amount outside US.
Stable Afghanistan is a national security interest of India, but beyond Indian
powers
Un-stable Afghanistan with strong NA, is also of long term national security
interest of India, regadless of stabelity in Afganistan. A more achievable and
realistic goal.
35. 06/14/13 35
Western Alternative plans for
Pakistan remapping
Bernard Lewis
Ralph Peters
Pashtun - Durand Line
Pashtunistan Billboard map
36. 06/14/13 36
Bernard Lewis Plan
• Truncates Pakistan
• Splits Pashtun areas and Baluchistan
• Keeps Sind and Karachi with Pakjab
39. 06/14/13 39
New Pashtunistan Billboards
More realistic as it covers all Pashtun
speaking lands
Even Keeps Sindh and Pakjab together
Separates Northern Areas of
Afghanistan
40. 06/14/13 40
Indian Claims in 1947
Note the border of greater Punjab is
East of Indus and includes Bhawalpur
Sindh is separate and removes Karachi
from Pakjab
42. 06/14/13 42
Indian Perspective
The loss of Kandahar by Akbar in 1588 was the death blow of the
Mughals as they were finished in less than 150 years after that.
The frontier areas were allowed to go under Persian influence and led to
the Durranis taking over Afghanistan with severe consequences to
mainland India.
Ranjit Singh created the buffer state and the English got hold of those
areas after the Anglo-Sikh Wars. Durand line was created after the Anglo-
Afghan wars and formalized the de-facto buffer created due to Ranjit
Singh's efforts.
To support Pashtun recovery of Durand line will bring the frontier back to
the outer rim of Indian core lands.
Pashtuns should be satisfied with what they have.
Another argument is the Sarkari Pashtuns on the eastern side of Durand
lines are the tribes that sided with Aurangazeb and being the successor
state it is India that should look out for them eventually.
Frontier Gandhi's debt has to be repaid. He was let down badly as we
didn’t understand nor had the capability to support him in 1947.
43. 06/14/13 43
Afghanistan in Pak sights
The top priority of US for next two administrations will be war in
Afghanistan
Future of NATO
Containment strategy towards Russia
Grand ideas like unilateralism and war as diplomatic tool
Pakistan has realized that if it chooses it can make matters worse for
the US in Afghanistan
NATO jugular in Pak grip
TSP troops in border areas keep the Taliban in check at same time
keeps the US from retaliating
75% of all supplies through TSP
US unwilling and unable to use Russian or Iranian route for supplies
More SF ops in borderlands is invitation to future disaster
44. 06/14/13 44
Afghanistan in Pak sights
The top priority of US for next two administrations will be war in
Afghanistan
Future of NATO
Containment strategy towards Russia
Grand ideas like unilateralism and war as diplomatic tool
Pakistan has realized that if it chooses it can make matters worse for
the US in Afghanistan
NATO jugular in Pak grip
TSP troops in border areas keep the Taliban in check at same time
keeps the US from retaliating
75% of all supplies through TSP
US unwilling and unable to use Russian or Iranian route for supplies
More SF ops in borderlands is invitation to future disaster
45. 06/14/13 45
Radicalization of TSP society
If you watch TSP channels one sees that there is a de-facto separation
in the TSP society also.
What I mean for example, there are two cooking channels on GEO TV
both hosted by women- One is a modern type but dressed in Indian
attire, the other is an Islamist with head covered. So they cater to
different segments of the society. The curious thing is they both make
Continental dishes!
And the music shows have two streams- pop and sufi type. So there is
a fundamental schism underway in TSP on fundamentalist lines
Regular news reports of schools, beauty shops closed
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Future Trajectory of Pakistan
• As Pakistan society gradually transforms from Deobandi to Wahabi
form:
• An accelerated social engineering change which breaks a millennium
of continuity to Indian civilization is underway
• The object is to create a demographic mass which is Wahab/Salafist
and will have far reaching impact on India and global Islam
48. 06/14/13 48
Conclusions
The rise of Pakiban is erasing the Durand line. What
we are seeing is the gradual failure of two states- TSP
and Afghanistan.
Afghanistan elections and US allegations of fraud have
weakened Karzai.
If the Taliban come to power and return to old ways it
will lead to a default Northern Alliance Tajik leadership
which will unite all Pashtuns (sarkari and non-sarkari,
Ghilzai and Durrani)) under the Taliban black flag.
So any way one looks at it 2010 is critical year for that
area.
49. 06/14/13 49
Alternate Prognosis
The new elite in Islamabad must realize, that an ideological
necessity no longer exists for the continuance of military rule
They need to let the kabila guards go and allow the society to
settle down and be at peace with itself and its neighbors.
There is also no reason why Balochs, Sindhis and Pashtuns
should not have greater autonomy
Nazariya-e-Pakistan is not realistic
Even during the pre-Mughal era the Turks and Afghans fought
each other
Pakistan must repeal its law declaring Ahmadiyas as non-
Muslims, and give more freedom to Christians and Hindus.
The new elite should envision a new concept of how Pakistan
should look like in future and abandon the “Not India” vision
51. 06/14/13 51
Grand Strategy
Pakistan as viable state has cease to exist
Accommodation and prodigal son treatment has
not made them see reason
52. 06/14/13 52
Factors to be considered
Pakistan factors
Pak military
Nukes
Islamized society
US and UK factors
Nukes control
Stability
Terrorism
Check on India
PRC factors
Check on India
Indian factors
Indian Muslim society
– Indian liberals
Indian military preparedness
56. 06/14/13 56
Dealing with Indian factors
Indian Muslims
Indian Liberals
Indian political class
Indian civil and military preparedness
57. 06/14/13 57
Adverse Consequences
Outside forces will intervene
Increase military and diplomatic preparedness
Improve economy to fund all activities
Create media awareness of Indian interests
Increase in terrorist attacks due to uncontrolled radicals
Improve internal security networks
Integrate civil and military forces coordination
Radicalization of Indian Muslims
Create stake for Indian Muslims to identify with India
Increase economic pie so they can be accommodated
Engage in dialogue with IM ulema to develop local identity
Reduce foreign funding of madrassas
58. 06/14/13 58
Action Plan
Non-war collapse is the best option after taking into account all the
constraints
Increase Indian economy in order to
Increase funds to support other aspects of action plan
Increase IM stake in India
Stabilize Afghanistan
A stable Afghanistan will divert Pak resources militarily, economically and
culturally.
Include aid to Afghanistan as line item in Indian budget as part of MEA
Increase Afghan training in Indian academies- civil and military
Create de-facto cordon around Pakistan
Include the countries in the immediate neighborhood and immediate area and
reduce Pakistan influence in the area: Sri Lanka, Bangla Desh and Nepal
Take all measures short of war to reduce Pakistan
Economic (trade, commerce and water, diplomatic and cultural
59. 06/14/13 59
Action Plan contd
Increase Indian military preparedness
Increase IBG deployments to 10. Reduce Strike corps mobilization time or
relocate in forward areas
Increase IAF squadron strength to handle two front war to preclude PRC
intervention
Increase IN ship strength for enforcing a cordon sanitaire to mitigate fallout
Integrate internal security apparatus with military as required
Diplomatic offensive to lull and manage a fait accompli
Engage US in talks and PRC in other areas
Prepare action plan for post-Pakistan region
Comprehensive and implementable
Union territory status for broken up areas for thirty years to be reviewed every
ten years. Final goal is reincorporation. Governors will be appointed with
consent
Reorganize NWFP as Pashtunistan Union Territory with contiguous areas from
Baloch and Punjab.
Reconciliation commission comprised of senior officers from three services of
both countries to re-integrate the armed forces
60. 06/14/13 60
Pakistani Manifest Destiny
End of Khilafat with Ottoman Empire
UK created/shaped as new custodian of Muslim territories. KSA
created, and kowtows to dominant power
1945 at the end of WW2 USA is sole power earlier powers are
nobody. KSA kowtows to dominant power
KSA on its own does not have population to recreate the Islamic
Empire Khalifa (Islamic Second Reich)
61. 06/14/13 61
Pakistani Manifest Destiny
KSA and TSP together can be new Khilafat
Wahabization of Pakistan necessary for that expansion of
KSA.
ISI is both the Mukhabarat and Khalifa
New Islamic Empire capital in Punjabi-Pakistan in Pakistan
Hinweis der Redaktion
Too cluttered. Why the big fat arrow Iran to TSP and TSP to China? I added political aspect of TSP in Somalia and Sri Lanka
So who created the term? Sher Ali Khan or Maududi? Please explain what message we are tying to convey with the last 2 bullet lines: Gen Yahya Khan wanted to crush Bengali Nationalism while JeI included Sindh and Baloch nationalism. Gen. Yahya Khan and Maududi came together and laid foundations for TSPA and Deobandi branch of Islam.