How to Be Persuasive by Google's Group Product Manager
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Being effective as a Product Manager requires influence without authority - convincing a broad portfolio of stakeholders to work together on a shared vision. The true secret to herding cats is to convince the cats to herd themselves! In this workshop Tyler Odean, a Group PM at Google, did a whirlwind tour of our cognitive biases and the psychology of decision making (drawing heavily from Thinking Fast & Slow) to help frame a set of practical tips and tricks for making your arguments as persuasive as possible.
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How to Be Persuasive by Google's Group Product Manager
- 1. Part-time Product Management Courses in Silicon Valley, New York and Los Angeles www.productschool.com
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- 9. Our lived experience is comprised of two separate and distinct systems. (this is an oversimplification, but a useful one) System #1 fast and cheap, but error prone System #2 precise, but expensive and slow
- 10. System #1 System #2 Fast Effortless Involuntary Black/White Approximate Confident Slow Effortful Deliberate Nuanced Precise Skeptical
- 11. System #1 System #2 Fast Effortless Involuntary Black/White Approximate Confident Slow Effortful Deliberate Nuanced Precise Skeptical
- 13. Just study this slide nansoma biwonjni nansoma iktitaf nansom a nansoma biwonjni saricik iktitaf nansoma a iktitaf nansoma biwonjni nansoma iktitaf ansoma nansoma iktitaf nansoma saricik n ansoma Kadirga nansoma iktitaf nansoma a biwonjni nansoma biwonjni iktitaf nanso a iktitaf nansoma biwonjni nansoma iktitaf
- 14. Which is larger? #1: (A) ½ OR (B) 1 #2: (A) 8 /100 OR (B) 1 /10 #3: (A) 23 /45 OR (B) 34 /67 #4: (A) 1 IN 17 OR (B) 0.06
- 15. Write two numbers: #1: THE LAST TWO DIGITS OF YOUR CELL PHONE #2: YOUR ESTIMATE OF THE TOTAL # OF GOOGLE VPS
- 16. How much $ tHERE IS A 1 /10,000 CHANCE YOU HAVE A FATAL DISEASE. hOW MUCH WOULD YOU PAY FOR THE cURE?
- 18. Even if you understand an optical illusion, it isn’t possible to unsee it. Cognitive illusions operate the same way. You can’t outsmart them.
- 21. Availability causes ideas that come to mind easily to seem more true. Feels Vivid Recent Frequent Clear Display Good Mood Familiar Common Likely Good True
- 22. Availability is why advertising works. Feels Vivid Recent Frequent Clear Display Good Mood Familiar Common Likely Good True
- 23. … and why heavy news coverage makes us overestimate risks. Feels Vivid Recent Frequent Clear Display Good Mood Familiar Common Likely Good True
- 24. Availability can also operate in reverse. Feels Vague Diffuse Hard to picture Unknown Bad Mood Foreign Rare Unlikely Bad False
- 26. We estimate things by anchoring on a reference value as a starting point. Adjusting from the anchor is effortful, so we tend to err in that direction.
- 27. We also experience anchoring from readily available comparisons. Web - $59 Web & Print - $125 Web - $59 Print - $125 Web & Print - $125
- 29. System #1 isn’t great at math, so we evaluate packages and outcomes by estimating a representative norm rather than as a sum. SET A SET B WHEN WE COMPARE VALUE DIRECTLY $ < $$ WHEN WE ESTIMATE VALUE SEPARATELY $$ > $
- 31. We don’t have good natural intuitions about probability. Instead we estimate how likely things are by the coherence of the story we can build explaining them. xkcd.com/552
- 32. A desire for coherence also causes us to ignore contradictions, which causes the Halo Effect and is why this sentence is uncomfortable: Hitler loved puppies
- 33. Coherence also gives us Confirmation Bias - changing our minds is effortful because it requires overcoming the inconsistency with our past selves. CHAINSAWSUIT.COM
- 35. Framing effects can make us perceive the same circumstances differently, depending on how the information is presented.
- 36. Organ donation consent rate by country Framing determines what choice is seen as default or normal. Deviating from normal is more effortful and we also perceive it as riskier. opt-in vrs opt-out
- 38. We intuitively evaluate outcomes as a gain or a loss from a reference point, and we are ~2-2.5x as loss averse as we are drawn to gains. VALUE GAINSLOSSES
- 39. We can only perceive a minimum quanta of risk, so our ability to estimate rare events is very poor. We round up on some risks and down on others. WE OVERESTIMATE RARE EVENTS WHEN THEY ARE: precise / easy to picture described to us emotionally significant on our minds recently represented concretely (~1 in 1000 children, e.g.) WE UNDERESTIMATE RARE EVENTS WHEN THEY ARE: diffuse / difficult to picture remembered from experience emotionally insignificant not recently relevant represented abstractly (~0.1% of children, e.g.)
- 40. Separately from our ability to estimate risk, we also intuitively overvalue both possibility (gambling) and certainty (insurance). ESTIMATED PROBABILITY DECISIONWEIGHT
- 41. The combination of loss aversion and our intuitive weighing of risk create what Kahneman calls The 4-Fold Pattern. LOSSES GAINS NEARCERTAINTYPOSSIBILITY FEARFUL (Accept settlement) FEARFUL (Buy insurance) HOPEFUL (Reject plea deal) Hopeful (Buy lottery Tickets)
- 43. Just study this slide s great i am really enjoying this talk Tyle y enjoying this talk Tyler is great i am rea this talk Tyler is great i am really enjoyin er is great i am really enjoying this talk Ty m really enjoying this talk Tyler is great i this talk Tyler is great i am really enjoyin er is great i am really enjoying this talk Ty
- 44. What % chance? The project has 100 dependencies. Each has a 95% chance to go according to plan. What % of the time should we expect the project to go according to plan?
- 45. Rank these words FROM MOST NEGATIVE (-2) to MOST POSITIVE (2) Iktitaf kadirga nansoma Biwonji saricik
- 46. HOw MUCH $ A PHARMACEUTICAL COMPANY WANTS TO RUN A TEST WHERE THERE IS A 1 /10,000 CHANCE OF BECOMING INFECTED WITH A FATAL DISEASE. hOW MUCH WOULD THEY NEED TO PAY YOU TO PARTICIPATE?
- 48. Keep it simple Weak arguments weaken strong ones One thesis at a time
- 49. Never surprise anyone Introduce ideas like you would cats: slowly at first, and in limited ways
- 50. Make it easy to agree Make your preferred choice the default Don’t leave behind open questions
- 51. Set the reference point Describe outcomes as losses/gains from your preferred reference Know where that puts you on the 4-Fold Pattern
- 52. Control the presentation Dial up or down emphasis by making things more concrete or abstract Keep flattering comparisons close, remove unflattering ones entirely
- 54. Argue as little as possible Agree as often as you can Ignore irrelevant inaccuracies Define the disagreement narrowly
- 55. Argue forwards, not backwards Easier to argue new information changes things than that old assessments were wrong.
- 56. Argue Both sides Traffic in arguments, not opinions Loan your rhetoric out freely
- 57. Play the Long Game Be prepared to be persuaded Leave some meat on the bone
- 58. NOW LET US DO SCIENCE
- 59. Which is larger? 1 > 1 /2 1 /10 > 8 /100 23 /45 > 34 /67 6% > 1 in 17
- 61. # of VPs / Them Digits
- 62. All the best words
- 65. Part-time Product Management Courses in Silicon Valley, New York and Los Angeles www.productschool.com