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Plan forum on mobility: intro and survey

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Introduction and mobility survey slides from the Plan Forum on the Future of Urban Mobility, in partnership with Bloomberg New Energy Finance.
London, 15th March 2016

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Plan forum on mobility: intro and survey

  1. 1. Forum Uber, car clubs and driverless cars: The end of the road for urban car ownership? #PlanFrm @BloombergNEF @planstrategic Chair: Kevin McCullagh Founder, Plan Panelist: Debbie Nathan Head of Consumer Research, Plan Panelist: Colin McKerracher Head of Advanced Transport, Bloomberg New Energy Finance Panelist: Timandra Harkness Co-presenter of FutureProofing, Radio 4 Panelist: Oliver Le Grice former Chief Designer Advanced Design, Land Rover Speaker: Lars Hesselgren Director Research PLP Architecture
  2. 2. 16:30 Introduction 16:40 Highlights from Plan’s urban mobility survey 16:50 Opening remarks from panelists 17:00 Chaired discussion 17:35 Preview of an urban infrastructure concept 17:45 QA 18:30 Drinks
  3. 3. Title Final presentation 00 XXX 2014 Setting the scene Kevin McCullagh
  4. 4. Cars used to be an unalloyed good
  5. 5. Richer mobility service ecosystem New mobility modes Multi-modal apps Seamless payments 2003 London congestion charging begins 2004 ZipCar launches 1980s High occupancy vehicle lanes in the USA 1982 Athens Ring Odd/Even system 2014 London congestion nears pre-charging levels 2020 Paris to ban diesel cars 2010 Boris Bike scheme launched 2034 Hamburg to ban cars from centre 2030 Helsinki eliminates private-car ownership 2040 DfT expects 25% increase in traffic since 2015 Squeeze on car use Higher parking costs Congestion charging Lower speed limits Traffic-calming measures Stricter emission laws No-car developments Limited car zones The long squeeze and alternatives
  6. 6. 2km1km 5km 10km 15km+ Costandconvenience (Price / Comfort / Flexibility / Speed) Bus Scooter Tram Taxi Minicab Walk Luxury chauffeur Metro Bike Typical urban journey length Private car Dynamic minibus Uses data to determine routes and offer point to point pick-ups and drop-offs, e.g. Bridj Mobility services Hailable mini cab Mini cab that can be hailed with an app, e.g. Uber Action zone Motorbike Multi- modal payment Taxi hailing apps Parking services Multi- modal planner Navigation P2P car sharing Car owners rent their cars directly to other consumers, e.g. RelayRides Free- floating car sharing Cars are collected from and returned to, any parking space within a pre-defined area, e.g. DriveNow Shared Scooter Shared bike Micro car sharing For smaller (typically 3-5) pre-determined groups of users, e.g. Audi Unite Point-to-point car sharing Back-to-base car sharing e-bike Bicycle with integrated electrical motor for propulsion, e.g. GoCycle There are more alternatives to car ownership now
  7. 7. Title 1 line UK car sales 1.75m 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 1.85m 1.95m 2.05m 2.15m 2.25m 2.35m 2.45m 2.55m 2.65m +57%Forecasted rise in global car sales by 2030 Euromonitor, 2015 But cars have never been so popular
  8. 8. TFL, Travel in London: Report 8 (2015) The car is London’s popular form of transport Car Bus/Tr am Walk Tube R ail Other 35% 14% 12% 20% 24% 5% Modes share of daily journeys
  9. 9. 54% of households have at least one car TFL, ‘Roads Task Force – Technical Note 12: How many cars are there in London and who owns them?’ (2013) Most London households have a car
  10. 10. 40% of UK’s gridlock is in London PRNewsire, ‘Gridlock on UK Roads Costs the Country’s Economy £4.3 Billion’ (2012) London is capital of gridlock
  11. 11. Average time drivers spent stuck in trafficFT, ‘London becomes Europe’s gridlock capital’ (2015) London’s congestion is getting worse ... 96hrs 2014 82hrs 2013
  12. 12. ... and London is growing Mayor of London, ‘Mayor calls for new measures to secure the success of London's roads’ press release, February 2016 8.6m 2016 10 m 2030
  13. 13. 75% of Gen Y drivers Young people still aspire to own their own car believe they are likely to be using their own, personal car in 5 years time GFK, ‘Gen Y Drivers Are Much More Likely to Embrace Connected Car Features’, January 2015 (US, UK, Germany, Brazil, Russia, and China)
  14. 14. Better public transport isn’t always the answer Tallin experiment City gave its 430,000 residents free access to public transport in an attempt to get cars off the road, decrease congestion and make the city more accessible to low-income residents. +1.2%increase in demand for the service overall Fast Company, ‘Why The World’s Largest Experiment In Free Public Transportation Failed’, 2014
  15. 15. 1. Will Londoners trade private cars for on-demand access? Thilo Koslowski, Creating Innovations in the Automotive and Smart Mobility Industry Primer for 2016, Gartner, January 2016 Gartner predicts that by 2020 10 % of today’s urban vehicle owners will replace them with on-demand vehicle access
  16. 16. 2. Can ‘smart’ technology squeeze more of existing roads?
  17. 17. 3. What are the options for increasing road capacity?
  18. 18. 15 March 2016 Car ownership alternatives Survey results
  19. 19. Why do this research? Decades of pressure on cars
  20. 20. Why do this research? Decades of pressure on cars Wide range of alternatives
  21. 21. Why do this research? Decades of pressure on cars Wide range of alternatives But what do consumers think?
  22. 22. 3    Hunches
  23. 23. 3    Hunches Most urban car owners intend to hang onto their cars
  24. 24. 3    Hunches Most urban car owners intend to hang onto their cars Electric vehicles will make car clubs more attractive
  25. 25. 3    Hunches Cheap and quality minicabs might see some ditching their cars Most urban car owners intend to hang onto their cars Electric vehicles will make car clubs more attractive
  26. 26. What we did Free fuel Free parking FREE Driving in bus lanes Car clubs FREE Mini cab prices plunging
  27. 27. Who we spoke to Where people live/work n = 883 30% 19% 23% 28% Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3-4 Zone 5-8 Car ownership / access status 57% 13% 4% 25% Private car Someone elses car Car sharing No access Age 12% 18-24 24% 25-34 25% 35-44 13% 45-54 17% 55-64 7% 65+
  28. 28. Younger people are more likely to consider a car club Question: To what extent might you be interested in an alternative to owning a private car for example a car for shared use? % shown = people who answered 4 or 5 out of 5 where 5 = extremely interested 883 respondents, results are statistically significant 22% 18-44 yrs 11% 44+ yrs
  29. 29. People who have access to a car are more likely to consider a car club Question: To what extent might you be interested in an alternative to owning a private car for example a car for shared use? % shown = people who answered 4 or 5 out of 5 where 5 = extremely interested 883 respondents, results are statistically significant 23% access 11% own
  30. 30. People who live or work in zones 1-4 are more likely to consider a car club Question: To what extent might you be interested in an alternative to owning a private car for example a car for shared use? % shown = people who answered 4 or 5 out of 5 where 5 = extremely interested 883 respondents, results are statistically significant 22% zones 1-4 9% zones 5-8
  31. 31. Question  What % of people would give up their car in favour of car sharing alternatives?
  32. 32. What % of people would give up their car in favour of car sharing alternatives? Question: To what extent might you be interested in an alternative to owning a private car for example a car for shared use? 509 respondents 10% 100% 0%
  33. 33. 11% of car owners are very interested in car sharing as an alternative to their own car 19% 70% 11% Face value not at all interested neutral very interested
  34. 34. What % of people would give up their car in favour of car sharing alternatives... if they didn’t have to pay for fuel? Question: Would you give up your car or the idea of owning a car, if you didn’t have to pay for fuel with this shared car? 509 respondents FREE Free fuel Face value 11% not at all interested neutral very interested
  35. 35. 23% of car owners would definitely give up their car if a car club offered them free fuel FREE 22% 55% 23% Free fuel Face value definitely not neutral definitely
  36. 36. What % of people would give up their car in favour of car sharing alternatives... if they could drive in bus lanes? Question: Would you give up your car or the idea of owning a car, if this shared car were allowed in bus lanes? 509 respondents FREE Bus lanes Free fuel Face value 23% definitely not neutral definitely
  37. 37. 16% of car owners would definitely give up their car if a car club car was allowed in bus lanes FREE 22% 55% 16% Bus lanes Free fuel Face value definitely not neutral definitely
  38. 38. What % of people would give up their car in favour of car sharing alternatives... if parking was free? Question: Would you give up your car or the idea of owning a car, if this shared car allowed you to park for free across London? 509 respondents FREE FREE Free parking Bus lanes Free fuel Face value 16% definitely not neutral definitely
  39. 39. 31% of car owners would definitely give up their car if a car club car could park for free FREE FREE 31% 19% 50% Free parking Bus lanes Free fuel Face value definitely not neutral definitely
  40. 40. What % of people would give up their car if Minicabs halved in price? Question: Would you give up your car or the idea of owning a car, if minicabs/Uber were to half in price (e.g. £4 for a 30 minute trip)? 509 respondents FREE FREE Minicab prices Free parking Bus lanes Free fuel Face value 31% definitely not neutral definitely
  41. 41. 24% of car owners would definitely give up their car if minicabs were to half in price FREE FREE 24% 22% 55% Minicab prices Free parking Bus lanes Free fuel Face value definitely not neutral definitely
  42. 42. What % of people would give up their car in favour of alternatives? Free fuel FREE Face value Free parking FREE Bus lanes Minicab prices 22% 23% 55% 17% 19% 24%11% 59% 19% 31% 50% 18% 16% 66%70%definitely not neutral definitely
  43. 43. Car owners Full sample 22% 23% 55% 17% 19% 24%11% 59% 19% 31% 50% 18% 16% 66%70% 26% 31% 43% 22% 25% 30%19% 48% 20% 40% 40% 25% 20% 55%57% Interestingly, similar proportions reflected at the full sample view 509 respondents 883 respondents definitely not neutral definitely
  44. 44. To conclude Most owners are not open to giving up their cars Young londoners are more open to alternatives Suburbanites are least open to giving up their cars Car clubs with free parking are the most attractive alternative 1    2    3    4   
  45. 45. 3    Hunches Cheap and quality minicabs might see some ditching their cars Most urban car owners intend to hang onto their cars Electric vehicles will make car clubs more attractive
  46. 46. 3    Hunches Most urban car owners intend to hang onto their cars Cheap and quality minicabs might see some ditching their cars Electric vehicles will make car clubs more attractive
  47. 47. 3    Hunches Most urban car owners intend to hang onto their cars Electric vehicles will make car clubs more attractive Cheap and quality minicabs might see some ditching their cars
  48. 48. 3    Hunches Cheap and quality minicabs might see some ditching their cars Most urban car owners intend to hang onto their cars Electric vehicles will make car clubs more attractive
  49. 49. We join the dots www.plan.london

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