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Mobility futures stylus

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A revised view on the future of Mobility – rowing back from the heady daze of 2017. Using the CASE (Connected, Autonomous, Shared and Electric) framework, we contrast the optimism of a view years ago, with the more grounded view of today.

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Mobility futures stylus

  1. 1. Trends day Mobility futures 31 July 2019
  2. 2. Our office
  3. 3. Perspective
  4. 4. CASE Vision of the future of mobility (2017) C A S EConnected Autonomous Shared Electric
  5. 5. CASE Vision of the future of mobility (2017) C A S EConnected Autonomous Shared Electric SERIOUS DELAYS AHEAD
  6. 6. AVs have been massively over hyped Gartner hype cycle Valley of oblivionRavine of demise Time Visibility Peak of inflated Expectations Trough of disillusionment Slope of enlightenment Plateau of productivity Technology trigger
  7. 7. Mobility infrastructure roll out slower than Silicon Valley speeds 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 90% 100% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% Householdsowningcars US Buerau Census data 30% 20% 10% 1908Model T enters production 1926Route 66 established 1975First McDonalds drive thru 1937Golden gate bridge opens 1952First walk/don’t walk signal in NY
  8. 8. C A S E 14:00 RESERVED 26.05.18 BOOKED 26.05.18 14:00 BOOKED 26.05.18 14:00 Connecting to everything Augmented driving Shared kerbspace Electric everything A more nuanced view of CASE
  9. 9. Connected to everything C
  10. 10. Headline 30ptConnectivity is the new priority Autonomous vehicle – Operates in isolation – Uses sensors to see where other vehicles are – Limited low-range and low speed Cooperative vehicle – Operates based on nearby vehicles behaviours – Uses connectivity to expand individual perception capability (i.e. seeing behind corners) – Communicates with infrastructures and other road-users Cooperative-automated vehicle – Uses both autonomous and cooperative capabilities – Vehicle senses/receives message i.e. safety hazard – Automatically performs corrective task
  11. 11. Headline 30ptV2X V2G V2V V2N V2P V2I V2G Vehicle to Grid (power) V2V Vehicle to Vehicle V2N Vehicle to Network (internet) V2P Vehicle to Pedestrians V2I Vehicle to Infrastructure
  12. 12. Headline 30ptSearch for new revenue streams Content platforms Service platforms Data platforms Big Tech and car brands looking to offer in-car media services: – Gaming – Video – Audio/music There is a hive of activity exploring wide spectrum of non-media based digital services: – Real time traffic and location updates – In car bookings and payments – Location based advertising Others are exploring ways to monetize the data stream generated by connected vehicles: – Traffic monitorimg – Vehicle performance – Driving style and safety
  13. 13. Headline 30ptHoloride x Audi In-car VR experience platform Content platform
  14. 14. Headline 30ptHonda Dream Drive In car service integration for drivers and passengers Service platform
  15. 15. Headline 30ptDovu Rewards drivers with crypto-tokens for sharing their mobility data Data platform
  16. 16. A Augmented driving x
  17. 17. [I aim to make] ‘machines slightly more intelligent — or slightly less dumb.’ John Giannandrea, Head of AI, Apple Machines have been overestimated, and humans underestimated
  18. 18. The tech isn’t ready Scenarios that GM’s self-driving cars have trouble handling or aren’t being tested broadly in San Francisco Changing lands Tunnels U-turns Construction zones Orange cones on road Pull-over at curb Narrow two-way street Distinguishing between motocycles and bikes Going around cars trying to parallel park Unprotected left turns Crossing solid white lines Go through steam emanating from manholes ‘Zipper merge’ (when two lanes merge into one) Intersections with faint traffic lights ‘Soft’ poles that separate lanes Passing a cyclist Bushes that protrude into lanes Heavy rain Low sun Going around cross-traffic that’s stuck in intersection Source: The Information
  19. 19. Overtrust noun The growing tendency of humans to place unwarranted trust in, and defer to, automated technology
  20. 20. Most tasks are best completed with a mix of... Machine strengths Following rules Analysis Speed Accuracy Repetition Always on Human strengths Judgement Empathy Creativity Improvisation Leadership Mode shifting
  21. 21. Human Machine Interlace Machine strengths Following rules Analysis Speed Accuracy Repetition Always on Human strengths Judgement Empathy Creativity Improvisation Leadership Mode shifting
  22. 22. AV technologies will first help make human drivers safer
  23. 23. Volvo driver monitoring 1/3 of road accidentsin the US are caused by intoxicationNHTSA
  24. 24. Volvo driver monitoring ?
  25. 25. Safer interventions Interventions Driver prompts Limiting speed Stop and park Call assistance Detection Eyes closed Swerving Lack of steering Slow reactions Eyes looking down ?
  26. 26. S Slide 27Trends day Shared kerbspace
  27. 27. Reducing air quality and congestion have become top priorities ... balanced with meeting economic goals Cities are becoming more interventionist
  28. 28. Dynamic kerbspace Zonification Urban zoning
  29. 29. Fixed zones
  30. 30. Dynamic zones Crit’Air scheme – When entering Paris or Lyon, vehicles must display an emissions sticker – Authorities can restrict which vehicles can enter when air quality drops
  31. 31. Digital kerb management Dynamically manage where and when vehicles park, pick-up/set-down and unload City benefits – Raise road and kerb productivity – Generate new revenue streams to replace falling parking income – Reduce backoffice costs – Gain insights into road and kerb usage patterns Coord.co Kerbside management
  32. 32. Booking ‘virtual’ loading bays 14:00 RESERVED 26.05.18 BOOKED 26.05.18 14:00 BOOKED 26.05.18 14:00 Kerb by Grid Smarter Cities is a Kerbside management platform for smart cities
  33. 33. E Slide 34Trends day Electric everything
  34. 34. Slow car adoption
  35. 35. Cities investing in electrifying public transport
  36. 36. An explosion of start-up driven micromobility options
  37. 37. Electric cars are coming ... but slowly Brakes on adoption – Unlikely to reach price parity with petrol cars for another decade – Lack of charging infrastructure Toyota’s planned range of electric and hybrid cars, annouced June 2019 Tesla’s global sales fell by 30 percent in Q1 2019
  38. 38. ... Chinese brands will probably dominate Chinese EV advantages – A state investment priority for over a decade – 61EV brands and counting – Half the worlds EV charging stations are in China C-More concept, LeapMotor
  39. 39. Chinese infrastructure is already ahead Chinese EV advantages – A state investment priority for over a decade – 61EV brands and counting – Half the worlds EV charging stations are in China Shenzen’s Minle EV charging station
  40. 40. Electric buses are leading the way
  41. 41. China is way out ahead
  42. 42. Explosion in new formats Lightweight (sub-500kg) Sub 3 mile journeys Shared and electric
  43. 43. Many love e-scooters
  44. 44. but not everyone
  45. 45. Especially cities City backlash – Munich cracks down on growing trend of ‘drink-riding’ – London bans them outright Munich police stopping rider to breathalyse him
  46. 46. Race to breakeven
  47. 47. Innovation is still needed Increased battery life Interchangeable, rechargeable batteries will reduce cost of ‘juicers’ Sturdier scooters Better materials, efficient construction and larger wheels
  48. 48. C A S E 14:00 RESERVED 26.05.18 BOOKED 26.05.18 14:00 BOOKED 26.05.18 14:00 Connecting to everything Augmented driving Shared kerbspace Electric everything Thank you
  49. 49. Perspective magazine Subscribe at: www.plan.london/subscribe
  50. 50. www.plan.london We join the dots

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