2. Slide 2
‘Strategy must be
created from the
future backwards.’
Gary Hamel
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Introduction
Strategy from the future
backwards
9. Slide 9
Foresight
Introduction
Being
‘prescient about the size
and shape of tomorrow’s
opportunities’ by building an
‘assumption base about the
future’ based on ‘deep insights
into the trends.’
Gary Hamel C.K. Prahalad, ‘Competing for the Future’, 1994
12. Slide 12Section Slide 12Introduction
Trends provide reference
points in a future context
14. Beyond the schlock of the new Slide 14
Frame and focus
Take a long and wide view
Put sociology before technology
Get under the surface
Be an informed contrarian
Have a point of view
Track and tack
16. Slide 16
Trends we track
Frame and focus
Social, Economic, Technological Design
Society
TechnologyEconomy
17. Slide 17Frame and focus
SET trends
Notable Social, Economic
and Technological dynamics
with potential influence on
product and service innovation
Social
TechnologicalEconomic
18. Slide 18Frame and focus
3 levels
Meta trends
High-level dynamics with wide influence
across many Macro trends Economic stagnation
Global interchange
19. Slide 19Frame and focus
3 levels
Polarised
prosperity
Meta trends
High-level dynamics with wide influence
across many Macro trends
Macro trends
Developments that transcend markets,
sectors and demographics Austerity
culture
Urban
renaissance
Economic stagnation
Global interchange
20. Slide 20Frame and focus
3 levels
Polarised
prosperity
Spaces of
connection
Latinisation
Hyper-dense
city cores
Cycling
surge
Redefined
town centres
Creative
cities
Squeezed
middle
classes
Boomers
have the
cash
Lost
generation
Noveau
Briche
Space
tourism
Super-rich
migration
Access over
ownership
Micro
enterprise
Downsizing
Housing
shortage
Small
indulgences
Returnment
Meta trends
High-level dynamics with wide influence
across many Macro trends
Macro trends
Developments that transcend markets,
sectors and demographics
Micro trends
Particular dynamics with specific
impact on certain markets, sectors
and demographics
Austerity
culture
Urban
renaissance
Economic stagnation
Global interchange
21. Slide 21Frame and focus
Meta trends
High-level dynamics with wide influence
across many Macro trends
Global interchange
A new interdependent phase
of globalisation, in which influence
flows in many directions
Economic stagnation
Slow growth and declining
living standards
Knowledge society
Education, intelligence and
creativity are more highly
regarded
Network society
People learning how to leverage
and negotiate an increasingly
connected world
Big data
Benefits of being able to store,
process and access huge
amounts of information
Cloud services
Pervasive role of server-side
data storage and processing
Internet of things
Networks of connected objects
that sense and share information
Climate anxiety
A range of concerns
around climate change
Social fragmentation
Breakdown of traditional social
ties leading to individualisation
Social
TechnologicalEconomic
22. Slide 22Frame and focus
Macro trends
Developments that transcend markets,
sectors and demographics
Perpetual
contact
Culture
of fear
Culture of
emotions
Polarised
prosperity
Urban
renaissance
Sustainability
tensions
Hardware
revival
Behaviour
change
Retail
revolution
Consumerisation
of healthcare
Learning
diversity
Austerity culture
Labour
imbalances
Innovation
imperative
Productivity
push
Smart
systems
New
conventions
Ageing
societies
Search for
authenticity
Trust
crisis
23. Slide 23Frame and focus
Micro trends
Particular dynamics with specific impact on
certain markets, sectors and demographics
Housing shortage
Micro enterprise
Boomers
have the cash
Data security awareness
Creative cities
Corporate incubators
Hybrid IT
Integrated retail
Brand cathedrals
Access over ownership
Smarter cities
Presumers
Cycling boom
Redefined town centres
Online education channels
Civilian drones
Optimised life
Connected Car
Simultaneous translation
Behaviour sensing
Child tracking
Corporate backlash
Medical tourism
Moments of connection
Human augmentation
24. Slide 24Frame and focus
Benefits
Mapping different types
of trends on a common
framework helps us:
– maintain a
comprehensive
helicopter view
of future contexts
– categorise all trends
within a common
framework
– situate trends
relative to each
other
Perpetual
contact
Culture
of fear
Culture of
emotions
Polarised
prosperity
Urban
renaissance
Sustainability
tensions
Hardware
revival
Behaviour
change
Retail
revolution
Consumerisation
of healthcare
Learning
diversity
Austerity culture
Labour
imbalances
Innovation
imperative
Productivity
push
Smart
systems
New
conventions
Ageing
societies
Search for
authenticity
Trust
crisis
25. Slide 25Frame and focus
Filter
Society
TechnologyEconomy
Perpetual
contact
Perpetual
contact
Culture
of fear
Culture of
emotions
Polarised
prosperity
Urban
rennaissance
Sustainability
tensions
Hardware
revival
Behaviour
change
Retail
revolution
Consumerisation of
healthcare
Learning
diversity
Austerity culture
Labour
imbalances
Innovation
imperative
Resource
volatility
Smart
systems
New
conventions
Ageing
societies
Search for
authenticity
Trust
crisis
Housing shortage
Micro enterprise
Boomers have
the cash
Data security awareness
Creative cities
Corporate incubators
Hybrid IT
Integrated retail
Brand cathedrals
Access over ownership
Smarter cities
Presumers
Cycling boom
Redefined town centres
Online education channels
Civilian drones
Optimised life
Connected Car
Simultaneous translation
Behaviour sensing
Child tracking
Corporate backlash
Medical tourism
Moments of
connection
Human augmentation
Selection criteria
Consumer
focus
Business
relevance
Inspiring
26. Slide 26Frame and focus
Design trend filtering
Mobile relevance
Trends potentially applicable
to mobile handsets
Mass consumer relevance
Trends that could appeal to
and be executed for budget
conscious Indians
Clustering
Similar trends
were combined
Design workshop
Trends that related to hot
issues were prioritised
1
2
3
4
27. Beyond the schlock of the new Slide 27
Frame and focus
Take a long and wide view
Put sociology before technology
Get under the surface
Be an informed contrarian
Have a point of view
Track and tack
30. Slide 30Take a long and wide view
Design trend analysis
Slide 46
Inhibitors Drivers
Male / Female
200720062005 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Popularity
Very clean, simple, high-tech and human. But a
little cheap and not quite stylish enough. Needs
an update – some colour would improve it.
CiCi Jiang, Design Researcher, Asus, Shanghai
Soft, human and popular. Always there and always will be.
Hugo Caillerton, Founder, Sunlit Design, Guangzhou
CMF is perceived as cheap
Humanised technology
Too simple in its purist form
Simple and comfortable tech.
A calm, simplified and usable expression
of technology that is a little dull for some
Relevance
This trend is well suited to Nokia’s reduction design strategy
and the wider shift to simplicity in China. It is seen as a simple
expression of technology that is comfortable and easy use.
However in its purest form it is seen by many as cheap, poor
quality, simple and even dull.
Evolution
A well established trend in the West and Japan that is
strongly associated with high design of British designer
Jasper Morrison and his Japanese counterpart Naoto
Fukasawa. The shift to understatement and the arrival of
Apple in China in recent years has helped
drive this trend mainstream in the last few years.
Soft Minimalism
Shift to simplicity
Aspiration for Apple
Apple iMac
Motorola PEBL V6
Punkt DP01
(Jasper Morrison)
Samsung SGH-E590
(Jasper Morrison)
Apple iPhone 3G
HTC Hero
Apple MacBook
Nice and simple forms which look
comfortable and humane to touch.
Josh Atkin, Head of Strategy, Jellymon Shanghai
Additional expert quotes
Slide 53
Inhibitors Drivers
Male / Female
Popularity
200720062005 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Strong personal expression
Progressive associations
Premium expression of techToo masculine
Progressive and individual tech
Pioneering and masculine language
that expresses premium technology
Relevance
A trend that is well suited to a premium expression of
technology. In its most overt form, it would be too aggressive
for Nokia’s reduction design strategy. However dialled-down
interpretations could work well. Its expressive aesthetic suits
the need for Hyper Social to communicate personal style but
it has strong masculine connotations.
Plank, Miura stool Lamborghini, Murcialago Nokia, Prism HTC, Diamond
Aava, Twist phone
Feels very different and individual.
Prof. Huang Qun, School of Art Design, University of technology, Wuhan
Evolution
With roots in early 20th century Futurism, this
long wave niche trend is most evident in high-end
furniture, homewares and transportation, most
notably in Lamborghini’s recent range of supercars
which arrived in China in 2006. While Nokia’s Prism
and HTC’s Diamond exemplified the trend in mobile
phones, there has been little recent application of the
trend in the world of consumer electronics.
Dynamic Futurism
Very pioneering, sharp, strong and masculine.
Will appeal to the guys who’ll like the edgy,
sharp forms and the high-quality finish.
Anonymous, Industrial and UX Designer, Lenovo, Beijing
This has an edge! It is aggressive and masculine
but still quite subtle and very high-tech.
Tom Shi, Founder, Leaping Creative, Guangzhou
Additional expert quotes
31. Slide 31Take a long and wide view
Hype cycle
Peak of inflated Expectations
Slope of enlightenment
Plateau of productivity
Time
Visibility
Technology trigger
Trough of disillusionment
32. Slide 32Take a long and wide view
Hype cycle
Valley of oblivionRavine of
demise
Time
Visibility
Peak of inflated Expectations
Trough of disillusionment
Slope of enlightenment
Plateau of productivity
Technology trigger
33. Slide 33Take a long and wide view
Tech is not inevitable
36. Beyond the schlock of the new Slide 36
Frame and focus
Take a long and wide view
Put sociology before technology
Get under the surface
Get beyond the schlock of the new
Be an informed contrarian
Have a point of view
Track and tack
39. Slide 39Put sociology before technology
Feminisation
The rise and social impact of women
40. Slide 40Put sociology before technology
Culture of fear
Paradoxically, as people live longer and healthier lives, they
feel more at risk. Social fragmentation has led to people
feeling more isolated from each other and more suspicious
of authorities. The resulting sense of insecurity reduces the
ability to gain a rationale perspective of actual risk levels.
Fear is experienced on many fronts. Health panics are a
regular occurrence, from mad cow disease to swine flu.
Dread of Islamic terrorism, nuclear disaster or extreme
weather, indicate that fear has replaced hope as a dominant
force in many societies. Governments have adopted the worst
case thinking ‘precautionary principle’, which amounts to a
‘better safe than sorry’ approach to life.
Mokhtar Belmokhtar who claimed responsibility Algeria hostage crisis in January 2013
Related micro trends Emerging
Cyber security
Growing
Islamophobia
Extreme weather anxiety
Nuclear paralysis
Cash hoarding
Anti-globalisation
Data security awareness
Declinism
Maturing
Safety consciousness
Declining
GM food panic
Macro trend
Also called:
Risk society
41. Core message
Slide 41Put sociology before technology
We shape technology and
technology shapes us
Beware technological
determinism
42. Beyond the schlock of the new Slide 42
Frame and focus
Take a long and wide view
Put sociology before technology
Get under the surface
Get beyond the schlock of the new
Be an informed contrarian
Have a point of view
Track and tack
44. Slide 44
Beyond pattern recognition
Get under the surface
Once is an accident
Twice is a coincidence
45. Slide 45
Beyond pattern recognition
Get under the surface
Once is an accident
Twice is a coincidence
Three times is a trend!
46. Slide 46
Beyond pattern recognition
Get under the surface
Once is an accident
Twice is a coincidence
Three times is a trend!
OK, but why?
47. Perpetual contact Dynamics drivers and effects
DRIVERS
EFFECTS
Perpetual
contact
Wider
and shallow
social
networks
Mobile
technology
Real-time life
management
Contingent relations (driver)
There is a tendency to keep options open, as less
emphasis is put on committing to a decision.
Wider and shallow social networks (driver)
People tend to keep in touch with a larger group
of contacts, but spend less ‘quality time’ with
any of them.
Focus on time use (driver)
People increasingly feel that they are ‘running
out of time’.
Mobile technology (driver)
The evolution of mobile technologies like Location
Based Services (LBS) and Bluetooth will change
the way we navigate cities and use phones in
vehicles.
The new phone booth (effect)
Time spent in the car = telephone hours. Drivers
enjoy the privacy provided by the car and the
privilege to make use of their ‘dead time’.
Real-time life management (effect)
People are moving towards managing their
life ‘on the go’. They use their phone to manage
time and space, in a flux of constant interruptions
and feedback.
More face2face meetings (effect)
Mobile phone use tends to generate more
meetings.
Contingent
relations
The new
phone booth
More
face2face
meetings
Focus on
time use
49. Beyond the schlock of the new Slide 49
Frame and focus
Take a long and wide view
Put sociology before technology
Get under the surface
Be an informed contrarian
Have a point of view
Track and tack
50. Trends
10 Trends for Europe in 2010
Though they have effects which are indirect, the Four Megatrends
are actually very strong and reinforce each other.The Six Trends
will have a more focused impact.
Modernisation
The old guard will be replaced by a younger generation
Globalisation
Everyday life and work will become more international
Risk + Fragmentation – Trust = Ethics
A growing sensitivity to risk and social fragmentation, combined with a crisis of trust, will
make Europeans want Ethics
A Rich Techno-culture
Wealth, together with their own kinds ofTechnology, will help Europeans preserve their
historic Culture
24-hour Society
There will be more round-the-clock working and living
Work-life Balance
The relationship between work and the rest of life will change in response to concern
over Europe’s long working hours
Learning to be Flexible
Europeans will move from a job for life to lifelong learning and
‘portfolio’ careers
Car seen as a Problem
While demand for mobility will increase, policies for transport and cities will aim to fight
traffic congestion
Friends are preferred to Family
Friends will replace family as the main support network
In search of Authenticity
Reacting to the commercialisation of everyday life, Europeans will seek authentic
experiences
Europe 2010
51. In search of Authenticity | Drivers
Marketisation of everyday life
As everything becomes a commodity, so European consumers will go in quest for
something special, motivating – even spiritual.
‘I am not a target market’
Increasingly aware of the ‘saturation marketing’ targeted at them in ever more
subtle ways, European consumers will express resistance.Youth, in particular
values things found by ‘word of mouth’, or and by being ‘in the know’.
If something is mass-marketed, everyone knows about it – so it may be rejected.
Trust crisis
Honesty, trust and directness are perceived to be rare (See Trust section of the
Megatrend: Risk + Fragmentation - Trust = Ethics).These things are therefore also
seen as precious.
WOEurope 2010
53. Beyond the schlock of the new Slide 53
Frame and focus
Take a long and wide view
Put sociology before technology
Get under the surface
Be an informed contrarian
Have a point of view
Track and tack
54. Dual Colour
Warm Metal
Light Follows Form
Pastel Accents
Layered Tones
Tonal Families
Tonal Greys Pastels Blocked
Dark Sumptuous ...
Lux Matte Black
Reflected Diffusion
Real Material Com.
Light Wood
Charcoal
Square Weave
Tonal Textures Gradients
White Wood
Wood Black
Uber Matte
Nude Tones
White Gold
Gold Black
Romantic Hues
Crystal Detailing
Browns Coppers
Cork
Concrete
Mono Colour
Block Primaries
Bright Blocks
Transparency Hue
Tinted Transparency
Primary Accents
Matte Rubber ...
White
Exaggerated Details
Wires
Pop Dots
Perforated Pattern
Macro Repetition
Quilted Pixilation
Variable Wave
Faceted Cubism
Protective Pattern
Pleated Surface
Granular Montage
Patterned Colour
Dimple
Organic Petal
Floral Motif
Decorative Array
Decorative Lines
Surface Pattern
Micro Repetition
Micro Metal Tactility
Mechanic
Splice Transition
Crisp Cutaways
Sequential Lines
Smooth Transition
Fluid Wrap
Organic Maximlism
Extravagant Organic
Smart Organic
Truncated Solids
Layered Skin
Restrained OrganicPillowed Purity
Soft Swell
Frame
Tapered Trapesium
Internal Glow
High Tech Pops
Bold Bodies
Contrasting Com.
Casual Modularity
Soft Utility
Emphasised Feat...
Object Outline
Long Life Design
Delight Humour
Modern Craft
Senseware
Pop Cute
Natural Life
Manga Effects...
Creature Features
Olympic Pattern
Urban Angst
Modern Heritage
Heritage Hybrid
Chinese Retro
Architectural Com..
Soft Minimalism
Cool Minimalism
Organic Minimalism
Sleek Tech
Retro Modern
Retro Futurism
Tough Technical
Vibrant Minimalism
Emotional Exp.
Slide 54
Serious
Playful
Elaborate
Simple
Craft Utility
Futurism
Minimalism Naturals
Pop
Expressive
Have a point of view
Trends Rarely concur
55. Beyond the schlock of the new Slide 55
Frame and focus
Take a long and wide view
Put sociology before technology
Get under the surface
Be an informed contrarian
Have a point of view
Track and tack
56. Slide 56
Infrastructure / Legislation
Technology
Autonomous vehicles
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Smart watches
Some will introduce features
that interface with cars
Level 2
At least two controls can be automated in unison,
such as adaptive cruise control in combination
with lane keeping.
Level 3
The driver can fully cede control of all safety-critical functions in certain conditions.
The car senses when conditions require the driver to retake control and provides
a ‘sufficiently comfortable transition time’ for the driver to do so.
Level 4
Fully driverless
cars maybe
available but not
affordable
Crossrail
Services will begin in May 2015
between Liverpool Street and
Shenfield and will be extended
to other parts of the route during
2018 and 2019
Ultra Low Emissions Zone
TfL proposal to limit road vehicles
during business hours in central
London to be zero
or low emissions
Weekend night tube
From September 2015,
Jubilee, Victoria and most
of the Piccadilly, Central
and Northern tube lines
will run all night on
Fridays and Saturdays.
Contactless payment
Mass adoption as readers are more
widely rolled out and RFID is integrated
into phones and smart watches
Connected cars
Cars with internet connection
deeply integrated into driver
and passenger experience
iBeacons
Bluetooth LE devices
that aid accuracy of
indoor positioning and
local notifications
5G networks
Fifth generation of
mobile networks that
will deliver dramatically
faster connection
speeds
Track and tack
Future context
Assumptions about developments that could
influence the development of the service
57. Slide 57
Wise words
Track and tack
‘hold strong opinions weakly…
If you must forecast then
forecast often – and be the
first to prove yourself wrong.’
Paul Saffo
59. Car seen as a problem | Drivers
Europe 2010
More cars, making more journeys: infrastructure
struggles to keep up
Nearly every European wants a car. But more and more Europeans don’t want
other people to drive a car near them.
More work on the move
Through the mobile phone, and other devices work will be more integrated with
transport – including road transport.With cars, however, Risk consciousness will
ensure that the working driver is regarded as a menace.
Congestion is regulated in the name of ethics
Though cars hardly have souls, their use is more and more regarded as unethical.
The state will step in to protect motorists from themselves.
WO