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BORN IN 1988?	

SORRY.
By Peter Orszag
SORRY.
1988?
BORN IN
Based on a Peter Orszag Article on BloombergView
IT’S BAD LUCK TO BE BORN	

20YEARS BEFORE	

ATIME OF HIGH UNEMPLOYMENT
IT’S BAD LUCK TO BE BORN	

20YEARS BEFORE	

ATIME OF HIGH UNEMPLOYMENT
IT CAN…	

affect your income as you enter
the workforce (naturally)
IT’S BAD LUCK TO BE BORN	

20YEARS BEFORE	

ATIME OF HIGH UNEMPLOYMENT
IT CAN…	

affect your income as you enter
the workforce (naturally)	

keep earnings relatively low
IT CAN…	

affect your income as you enter
the workforce (naturally)	

keep earnings relatively low	

chip away at health & happiness
…for a lifetime
IT’S BAD LUCK TO BE BORN	

20YEARS BEFORE	

ATIME OF HIGH UNEMPLOYMENT
WHENYOU	

ENTER
THE WORKFORCE
A 1% RISE INTHE
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE…
…REDUCESYOUR
WAGES BY 6% - 7%
ANDTHE REDUCTION	

PERSISTS
(THOUGH IT DIMINISHES SOMEWHAT OVERTIME)
A 1% RISE INTHE
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
AT GRADUATION…
…REDUCESYOUR
WAGES BY 2.5%	

15 YEARS LATER
THIS CAN MAKE A	

BIG DIFFERENCE
FOR MEMBERS OFTHE	

SAME GENERATION
BORN JUST	

A FEW YEARS APART
THIS CAN MAKE A	

BIG DIFFERENCE
FOR MEMBERS OFTHE	

SAME GENERATION
BORN JUST	

A FEW YEARS APART
Consider a person born in 1988
!
THIS CAN MAKE A	

BIG DIFFERENCE
FOR MEMBERS OFTHE	

SAME GENERATION
BORN JUST	

A FEW YEARS APART
Consider a person born in 1988
who graduated in 2010	

when there was 9.6% unemployment…
THIS CAN MAKE A	

BIG DIFFERENCE
FOR MEMBERS OFTHE	

SAME GENERATION
BORN JUST	

A FEW YEARS APART
Consider a person born in 1988
who graduated in 2010	

when there was 9.6% unemployment…
…with someone born in 1984
!
THIS CAN MAKE A	

BIG DIFFERENCE
FOR MEMBERS OFTHE	

SAME GENERATION
BORN JUST	

A FEW YEARS APART
Consider a person born in 1988
who graduated in 2010	

when there was 9.6% unemployment…
…with someone born in 1984
who graduated in 2006	

when there was 4.5% unemployment
THIS CAN MAKE A	

BIG DIFFERENCE
FOR MEMBERS OFTHE	

SAME GENERATION
BORN JUST	

A FEW YEARS APART
The person born in 1988 is unlucky
with 30% - 35% lower wage at graduation
THIS CAN MAKE A	

BIG DIFFERENCE
FOR MEMBERS OFTHE	

SAME GENERATION
BORN JUST	

A FEW YEARS APART
The person born in 1988 is unlucky
with 30% - 35% lower wage at graduation
After 15 years the person born in 1984
is expected to earn roughly 13% more
Similarly, the class of 1982
(a peak unemployment year)	

earned $100k less over 20 years
THIS CAN MAKE A	

BIG DIFFERENCE
FOR MEMBERS OFTHE	

SAME GENERATION
BORN JUST	

A FEW YEARS APART
THIS CAN MAKE A	

BIG DIFFERENCE
FOR MEMBERS OFTHE	

SAME GENERATION
BORN JUST	

A FEW YEARS APART
Similarly, the class of 1982
(a peak unemployment year)	

earned $100k less over 20 years
…than did similar students	

in the class of 1988,
(a peak employment year)
SINCETHE BUSINESS CYCLE WILL NEVER BE ELIMINATED	

WHAT CAN YOU DO
TO PROTECTYOURSELVES ANDYOUR CHILDREN?
SINCETHE BUSINESS CYCLE WILL NEVER BE ELIMINATED	

WHAT CAN YOU DO
TO PROTECTYOURSELVES ANDYOUR CHILDREN?
BE LUCKY:	

Be born 20 years before
an economic boom
(rather than a bust)
SINCETHE BUSINESS CYCLE WILL NEVER BE ELIMINATED	

WHAT CAN YOU DO
TO PROTECTYOURSELVES ANDYOUR CHILDREN?
BE LUCKY:	

Be born 20 years before
an economic boom
(rather than a bust)
SINCETHE BUSINESS CYCLE WILL NEVER BE ELIMINATED	

WHAT CAN YOU DO
TO PROTECTYOURSELVES ANDYOUR CHILDREN?
PURSUE
EDUCATION:
It tends to protects
you from the lasting
effects of elevated
unemployment
SORRY.
Based on a Peter Orszag Article on BloombergView
1988?
BORN IN

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Born in 1988? Sorry.

  • 1. BORN IN 1988? SORRY. By Peter Orszag SORRY. 1988? BORN IN Based on a Peter Orszag Article on BloombergView
  • 2. IT’S BAD LUCK TO BE BORN 20YEARS BEFORE ATIME OF HIGH UNEMPLOYMENT
  • 3. IT’S BAD LUCK TO BE BORN 20YEARS BEFORE ATIME OF HIGH UNEMPLOYMENT IT CAN… affect your income as you enter the workforce (naturally)
  • 4. IT’S BAD LUCK TO BE BORN 20YEARS BEFORE ATIME OF HIGH UNEMPLOYMENT IT CAN… affect your income as you enter the workforce (naturally) keep earnings relatively low
  • 5. IT CAN… affect your income as you enter the workforce (naturally) keep earnings relatively low chip away at health & happiness …for a lifetime IT’S BAD LUCK TO BE BORN 20YEARS BEFORE ATIME OF HIGH UNEMPLOYMENT
  • 6. WHENYOU ENTER THE WORKFORCE A 1% RISE INTHE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE… …REDUCESYOUR WAGES BY 6% - 7%
  • 7. ANDTHE REDUCTION PERSISTS (THOUGH IT DIMINISHES SOMEWHAT OVERTIME) A 1% RISE INTHE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE AT GRADUATION… …REDUCESYOUR WAGES BY 2.5% 15 YEARS LATER
  • 8. THIS CAN MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE FOR MEMBERS OFTHE SAME GENERATION BORN JUST A FEW YEARS APART
  • 9. THIS CAN MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE FOR MEMBERS OFTHE SAME GENERATION BORN JUST A FEW YEARS APART Consider a person born in 1988 !
  • 10. THIS CAN MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE FOR MEMBERS OFTHE SAME GENERATION BORN JUST A FEW YEARS APART Consider a person born in 1988 who graduated in 2010 when there was 9.6% unemployment…
  • 11. THIS CAN MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE FOR MEMBERS OFTHE SAME GENERATION BORN JUST A FEW YEARS APART Consider a person born in 1988 who graduated in 2010 when there was 9.6% unemployment… …with someone born in 1984 !
  • 12. THIS CAN MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE FOR MEMBERS OFTHE SAME GENERATION BORN JUST A FEW YEARS APART Consider a person born in 1988 who graduated in 2010 when there was 9.6% unemployment… …with someone born in 1984 who graduated in 2006 when there was 4.5% unemployment
  • 13. THIS CAN MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE FOR MEMBERS OFTHE SAME GENERATION BORN JUST A FEW YEARS APART The person born in 1988 is unlucky with 30% - 35% lower wage at graduation
  • 14. THIS CAN MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE FOR MEMBERS OFTHE SAME GENERATION BORN JUST A FEW YEARS APART The person born in 1988 is unlucky with 30% - 35% lower wage at graduation After 15 years the person born in 1984 is expected to earn roughly 13% more
  • 15. Similarly, the class of 1982 (a peak unemployment year) earned $100k less over 20 years THIS CAN MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE FOR MEMBERS OFTHE SAME GENERATION BORN JUST A FEW YEARS APART
  • 16. THIS CAN MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE FOR MEMBERS OFTHE SAME GENERATION BORN JUST A FEW YEARS APART Similarly, the class of 1982 (a peak unemployment year) earned $100k less over 20 years …than did similar students in the class of 1988, (a peak employment year)
  • 17. SINCETHE BUSINESS CYCLE WILL NEVER BE ELIMINATED WHAT CAN YOU DO TO PROTECTYOURSELVES ANDYOUR CHILDREN?
  • 18. SINCETHE BUSINESS CYCLE WILL NEVER BE ELIMINATED WHAT CAN YOU DO TO PROTECTYOURSELVES ANDYOUR CHILDREN? BE LUCKY: Be born 20 years before an economic boom (rather than a bust)
  • 19. SINCETHE BUSINESS CYCLE WILL NEVER BE ELIMINATED WHAT CAN YOU DO TO PROTECTYOURSELVES ANDYOUR CHILDREN? BE LUCKY: Be born 20 years before an economic boom (rather than a bust)
  • 20. SINCETHE BUSINESS CYCLE WILL NEVER BE ELIMINATED WHAT CAN YOU DO TO PROTECTYOURSELVES ANDYOUR CHILDREN? PURSUE EDUCATION: It tends to protects you from the lasting effects of elevated unemployment
  • 21. SORRY. Based on a Peter Orszag Article on BloombergView 1988? BORN IN