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A Forrester Consulting Thought Leadership Paper Commissioned By SAP
The Customer Loyalty Conundrum
Revealing Loyalty Program Decision-Makers’ Delusion
September 2011
Forrester Consulting
The Customer Loyalty Conundrum
Page 1
Table Of Contents
Executive Summary.................................................................................................................................................................................2 
The Current State Of Customer Loyalty .............................................................................................................................................3 
Customer Loyalty Technology Adoption............................................................................................................................................6 
Loyalty Decision-Makers Overestimate Their Loyalty Capabilities...............................................................................................9 
Close The Gap Between Perception And Reality.............................................................................................................................10 
Key Recommendations.........................................................................................................................................................................11 
Appendix A: Methodology ..................................................................................................................................................................12 
Appendix B: Demographics/Data.......................................................................................................................................................12 
Appendix C: Endnotes..........................................................................................................................................................................13 
© 2011, Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved. Unauthorized reproduction is strictly prohibited. Information is based on best available resources.
Opinions reflect judgment at the time and are subject to change. Forrester®
, Technographics®
, Forrester Wave, RoleView, TechRadar, and Total
Economic Impact are trademarks of Forrester Research, Inc. All other trademarks are the property of their respective companies. For additional
information, go to www.forrester.com. [1-J1P4HR]
About Forrester Consulting
Forrester Consulting provides independent and objective research-based consulting to help leaders succeed in their organizations. Ranging in
scope from a short strategy session to custom projects, Forrester’s Consulting services connect you directly with research analysts who apply
expert insight to your specific business challenges. For more information, visit www.forrester.com/consulting.
Forrester Consulting
The Customer Loyalty Conundrum
Page 2
Customer loyalty is
hotter than ever, but
loyalty decision-makers
overstate their ability to
deliver innovative
solutions.
Executive Summary
In the face of a slow economic recovery, companies maintain a strong focus on
retaining and deepening relationships with existing customers. They increasingly
lean on customer loyalty programs to achieve these goals. But with so many loyalty
programs popping up across industries, it gets harder and harder for a single
program to stand out. Add in the increasing consumer adoption of social and
mobile channels and devices, and loyalty decision-makers face an uphill battle to sift
through customer data and deliver meaningful offers in the right place at the right time.
In June 2011, SAP commissioned Forrester Consulting to understand how loyalty decision-makers — those involved in
customer loyalty programs and strategy across the organization — define and execute customer loyalty.1
They also
analyzed how loyalty decision-makers currently use customer data, technology, and analytics to manage customer
loyalty programs.
Through in-depth surveys with 166 customer loyalty decision-makers from North America and Europe, Forrester
found that most loyalty decision-makers overstate the extent to which they integrate their loyalty programs, deliver
insight-driven offers and experiences, and measure their loyalty marketing success.
Key Findings
Forrester’s study yielded the following key findings:
 Loyalty marketers are overconfident in their ability to execute loyalty programs. While survey respondents
expressed confidence in the depth and breadth of their loyalty strategies, Forrester uncovered holes in their story
around data, integration, and customer insight.
 Loyalty decision-makers can’t escape the ghost of ROI. Loyalty decision-makers have long struggled to quantify
the returns from their marketing efforts. This challenge persists for loyalty decision-makers as well, especially
when proving returns across multiple customer touchpoints.
 Integrated loyalty program management is a strategic imperative. With consumer mobile and social adoption
rapidly increasing, loyalty programs must be able to reach consumers in the right place at the right time. And
with loyalty decision-makers still focused on primarily traditional channels, they are missing out on valuable
customer data and interaction points. To stay relevant, they must focus on improving integration to better pull
together customer data across touchpoints on the front and back end.
Forrester Consulting
The Customer Loyalty Conundrum
Page 3
The Current State Of Customer Loyalty
Initiatives directed at customer loyalty expanded significantly over the past several years and recently reached a fever
pitch. Loyalty marketing programs and initiatives touch almost every industry and B2C and B2B companies alike. And
although the number of programs continually grows, the mostly transactional structure and discount-based benefits of
the programs remain relatively unchanged. This makes sense given that most consumers sign up just for the discounts,
but lack of differentiation prevents many loyalty decision-makers from achieving the retention, revenue, and customer
relationships they desire.
With so much competition in the marketplace, defining a standout loyalty strategy proves challenging. Most companies
approach loyalty with two related but distinct strategies.2
Although both are grounded in customer data, implicit loyalty
initiatives originate in various parts of the organization and influence loyalty without a structured give and get. Explicit
loyalty initiatives, on the other hand, have a defined membership, strategy, and reward structure, and they are
recognized in the P&L statements. Through in-depth surveys, Forrester found 87% of organizations look to marketing
for loyalty strategy assistance, and 57% emphasize an explicit loyalty strategy (see Figure 1).
Figure 1
Most Approach Loyalty With An Explicit Strategy
Base: 166 customer loyalty decision-makers from North America and Europe
Source: A commissioned study conducted by Forrester Consulting on behalf of SAP, July 2011
But developing a loyalty strategy is only half the battle. The execution of that strategy tells how well a program will sink
or swim. In this study, Forrester examined the current practices of customer loyalty decision-makers. They found that:
 Day-to-day operations fall to customer service. Although marketing is heavily involved in developing the
loyalty strategy, the day-to-day operations of the program or initiative often fall across various parts of the
organization. Customer service (65%), customer experience (57%), and operations (53%) most often take over to
supervise the program or initiatives.
 Retention and satisfaction top the list of goals for customer loyalty. Customer loyalty has always been about
getting customers to come back. Thus, it comes as no surprise that survey respondents indicated customer
retention (72%) and customer satisfaction (54%) as their key business objectives for loyalty. With economic
“ Which of the following best describes your company's loyalty strategy? "
28%
19%
38%
14%
1%
Implicit loyalty
Explicit loyalty
A combination of implicit and explicit loyalty with an
emphasis on explicit loyalty initiatives
A combination of implicit and explicit loyalty with an
emphasis on implicit loyalty initiatives
Other
Forrester Consulting
The Customer Loyalty Conundrum
Page 4
recovery stagnant at best, reducing churn and increasing customer satisfaction make good business sense. Also in
the top five? Profitability and revenue (37%), customer experience (30%), and engagement (29%) (see Figure 2).
 Programs are stuck in a discount rut. Forrester asked loyalty decision-makers about their program capabilities
and components. As expected, 49% of those surveyed utilize coupon- or discount-based rewards. But less than
one-third utilize the experience- or service-based rewards that typically carry a higher perceived value. The
exception? The travel industry. Eighteen travel industry respondents have service-based rewards, and one-third
have experience-based rewards. They also are more likely to have partnerships to increase the different types of
offers available to members of their programs (see Figure 3).
 Innovation, establishing accountability, and creating value prove most challenging. Loyalty decision-makers
want to heed the call for innovation and start moving beyond discounts, but they aren’t sure how (see Figure 4).
Survey respondents indicated that they struggle with delivering offers with a high perceived value (32%) and
moving their programs from a simple discount program to a strategic element of their marketing (28%).
Likewise, they find it difficult to align their loyalty program with the overarching enterprise strategy (29%). With
loyalty operating in a silo separate from the business goals, it’s much harder to manage data quality, share
insights, and develop the unified view of the customer needed to deliver timely and valuable offers.
 Emerging channels and real-time integration are largely untouched. With the increase in consumer adoption
of social and mobile channels, loyalty decision-makers are slowly starting to take these emerging channels more
seriously. Forty-five percent of survey respondents integrate with social networks (most of that comes from the
travel sector), 26% have a mobile application, and only 7% use gamification. Because use of these channels is still
in an experimental phase, many loyalty decision-makers may resist getting their feet wet until they see
demonstrated results. They may have to wait a while. Fourteen percent of respondents consider their social
networking data “very well measured.” Current data collection focuses on the more traditional offline and online
channels, making them difficult to measure.
 Measurement skills are immature. Marketers historically struggle to measure marketing ROI, and loyalty
marketing is in the same boat. Nearly 60% of survey respondents indicated that measuring results and ROI
regardless of channels is their greatest measurement challenge. They also indicated that results attribution and
creating a single customer view also prove challenging. But given the historical metrics that loyalty decision-
makers claim to measure — sales or revenue (64%), retention (61%), satisfaction (54%) — this comes as no
surprise. Few look at comparative or forward-looking metrics like incremental lift (20%), incremental order value
(14%), or customer lifetime value (26%). One possible effect of not being able to measure the business value of
loyalty? A much more challenging business case for further investments in loyalty initiatives.
Forrester Consulting
The Customer Loyalty Conundrum
Page 5
Figure 2
Customer Retention And Satisfaction Drive Loyalty Efforts
Base: 166 customer loyalty decision-makers from North America and Europe
(Multiple responses accepted)
Source: A commissioned study conducted by Forrester Consulting on behalf of SAP, July 2011
Figure 3
Current Loyalty Programs Are Stuck In A Discount Rut
Base: 166 customer loyalty decision-makers from North America and Europe
(multiple responses accepted)
Source: A commissioned study conducted by Forrester Consulting on behalf of SAP, July 2011
"What are the key business objectives for loyalty programs/initiatives at your company?”
72%
54%
37%
30%
29%
25%
21%
8%
5%
2%
Customer retention
Customer satisfaction
Profitability/Revenue
Customer experience
Engagement
Customer service
Customer data collection
Customer-centricity
Competitive threat
Other
“ My loyalty program has the following capabilities/components:”
49%
47%
42%
39%
36%
33%
33%
26%
25%
25%
23%
23%
19%
7%
2%
Coupon or discount-based rewards
Online account management
Customer tiering based on value
Loyalty currency
Integration with social networks
Integration with back-end management
Service-based rewards
Experience-based rewards
Real-time integration with customer touchpoints
Partner networks
Cash-back
Shared product services and currencies with partners
Mobile application
Gamification
Other
Compared with 
other industries, 
the travel 
respondents were 
most likely to 
have rewards 
based on service 
(18 out of 29)
Forrester Consulting
The Customer Loyalty Conundrum
Page 6
58% of CPG
respondents prefer on-
premises loyalty
technology
deployments.
Figure 4
Loyalty Challenges Abound
Base: 166 customer loyalty decision-makers from North America and Europe
(does not include responses to “Other” and “None. Our organization is not facing any internal challenges”)
Source: A commissioned study conducted by Forrester Consulting on behalf of SAP, July 2011
Customer Loyalty Technology Adoption
Across the loyalty value chain, technology powers loyalty program operations and empowers loyalty decision-makers to
overcome various challenges: from managing data quality and campaign management, to delivering offers with a high
perceived value and justifying costs (see Figure 5). Forrester asked loyalty decision-makers how they currently use
technologies, what they plan to adopt, and where they turn for technological needs. Respondents indicate that they:
 Want control of the loyalty value chain. Across the board, loyalty decision-makers indicate that they insource
loyalty. From strategic services, program, campaign, and offer management, to customer database management
and analytics, the majority of respondents prefer to keep loyalty in-house
(see Figure 6). Our research shows that firms tend to outsource activities at
the top and bottom of the value chain — loyalty strategy and loyalty
fulfillment. They also look for on-premises or hybrid solutions for their
loyalty technology.3
For those that do outsource some of the loyalty value
chain, almost two-thirds do so to lower costs.
 Are more willing to outsource partnerships, couponing, and fulfillment. Given the resources and technology
required to source, produce, and manage the redemption side of loyalty, it follows that more loyalty decision-
“ What would you say are the greatest internal challenges facing your loyalty initiatives today? ”
(Rank top three in order of importance)
13%
11%
11%
8%
7%
7%
5%
5%
5%
4%
2%
2%
10%
9%
11%
5%
5%
8%
8%
5%
8%
6%
7%
5%
5%
9%
10%
6%
7%
10%
2%
7%
7%
7%
7%
6%
Moving it from a simple discount program to a strategic element
of our marketing
Aligning our loyalty strategy with the overarching
business/enterprise strategy
Delivering offers with a high perceived value
Ensuring member awareness/understanding of the program
and its benefits
Proving results to the executive team to garner support and
budget
Maintaining customer data quality
Managing program costs, points liability, and internal and
external resources
Managing campaigns across multiple marketing technologies
Understanding customer interactions across all touch points
Differentiating our program from similar efforts in the
marketplace
Coordination and collaboration with internal groups or external
agencies and vendors
Ability to make changes to the loyalty programs and processes
"1" "2" "3"
Forrester Consulting
The Customer Loyalty Conundrum
Page 7
makers choose to outsource these elements of the loyalty value chain (see Figure 6). An exception? Seventy-two
percent of retail and 48% of CPG loyalty decision-makers — whose programs are traditionally coupon-heavy —
prefer to manage couponing and fulfillment in-house.
 Plan to incorporate more mobile. Technology adoption plans, especially in the near term, reveal that loyalty
decision-makers prioritize mobile marketing (see Figure 7). They are planning to adopt in the long and short
term mobile websites (52%), applications (45%), and messaging (39%).
 Already use social networks except in financial services. With only 29% of respondents currently using social
networks (compared with more than 50% in travel, retail, and CPG), financial services lags behind in social
adoption. Privacy concerns over sharing sensitive financial data create a barrier to entry right now, but survey
results show that financial services loyalty decision-makers aren’t giving up. Among those surveyed, 40% plan to
adopt social networks in the next six to 12 months.
Figure 5
Technology Helps Overcome ROI, Campaign Management, Data Quality, And Offer Management Woes
Base: 166 customer loyalty decision-makers from North America and Europe
Source: A commissioned study conducted by Forrester Consulting on behalf of SAP, July 2011
Aligning our loyalty
strategy with the
overarching
business/enterprise
strategy
Delivering offers with a
high perceived value
Proving results to the
executive team to
garner support and
budget
Maintaining customer
data quality
Managing program
costs, points liability,
and internal and
external resources
Managing campaigns
across multiple
marketing
technologies
Understanding
customer interactions
across all touch points
Differentiating our
program from similar
efforts in the
marketplace
Coordination and
collaboration with
internal groups or
external agencies and
vendors
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%
CHALLENGESTHATTECHNOLOGYWILLHELP
OVERCOME
CHALLENGES FACED BY INTERACTIVE MARKETING ORGANIZATION
Forrester Consulting
The Customer Loyalty Conundrum
Page 8
Figure 6
Loyalty Solutions Managed In-House When Possible
Base: 166 customer loyalty decision-makers from North America and Europe
Source: A commissioned study conducted by Forrester Consulting on behalf of SAP, July 2011
Figure 7
Loyalty Capability Adoption
Base: 166 customer loyalty decision-makers from North America and Europe
Source: A commissioned study conducted by Forrester Consulting on behalf of SAP, July 2011
“ Regarding the facets of the loyalty value chain, do you insource or outsource the following? ”
30%
40%
41%
52%
57%
59%
59%
62%
64%
67%
67%
69%
72%
20%
27%
26%
17%
20%
15%
9%
12%
12%
13%
13%
8%
12%
5%
11%
14%
4%
17%
11%
18%
15%
19%
17%
15%
19%
13%
45%
22%
20%
28%
6%
15%
14%
11%
6%
2%
5%
5%
3%
0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
Gamification
Couponing
Fulfillment/partnerships
Points liability
Integration services
Points management
Real-time offer management
Customer support/VOC
Loyalty campaign management
Customer database management
Analytics
Strategic services
Program management
Insource Outsource Hybrid Don't know
72% of Retail 
and 48% of 
CPG loyalty 
decision‐
makers prefer 
to manage 
couponing and 
fulfillment in‐
house.
“ How would you describe your company's adoption of the following emerging touch points for
loyalty marketing activities? ”
15%
25%
20%
34%
43%
44%
50%
52%
58%
22%
35%
22%
39%
39%
45%
28%
35%
28%
63%
40%
58%
27%
17%
11%
22%
13%
13%
0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
Gamification
2D barcodes
Kiosks
Tablet computing
Mobile messaging such as SMS
Mobile applications
User generated content
Mobile website
Social networks
Using or Piloting Planning to use in the long- or short-term No plans to adopt
Only 29% of Financial 
Services use social 
networks. Privacy 
concerns are a barrier 
to entry, but 40% plan 
to adopt social 
networks in six to 12 
months.
Forrester Consulting
The Customer Loyalty Conundrum
Page 9
For the travel and financial
services industries, customer
loyalty programs are table
stakes. More than three-
fourths of travel and financial
services respondents agreed
that their loyalty strategy plays
a role in their CRM, customer,
and brand strategies.
Loyalty Decision-Makers Overestimate Their Loyalty Capabilities
Creating and executing an innovative loyalty strategy is easier said than done. It requires enterprisewide coordination to
arrange the strategy, technology, and processes required to be successful. Most
loyalty decision-makers seem to believe they are far more advanced than they
really are. Survey respondents tell us that their loyalty strategy is well defined
and plays a key role in CRM, customer, and brand strategies. They maintain
that they build a history of customer interactions with both the brand and
loyalty program, that they have a solid business case for loyalty, and that their
member base has no confusion about the value of loyalty. But when it comes
to executing, further investigation revealed a distinct gap between perception
and reality. Less than half of decision-makers surveyed agree that they have the technology and analytics necessary to
deliver consistent experiences across customer touchpoints. As we dug deeper, we found that loyalty decision-makers:
 Overstate their data collection maturity. Customer data is at the heart of customer loyalty initiatives, and most
companies want to think that they focus on best practice data tools, collection, management, and application.
Sixty-four percent of those surveyed claim they have the ability to collect, process, store, and integrate data across
the front- and back-end systems. But with data collection focusing on traditional channels, and less than half
utilizing real-time data transfer or integrating loyalty and nonloyalty customer data, the wind in their sails peters
out.
 Face integration challenges when applying Customer Intelligence. Customer Intelligence helps loyalty
decision-makers get smarter and understand and anticipate customer needs. And while more than half of
respondents claim to leverage Customer Intelligence across functions (58%) and use it to drive strategy,
segmentation and targeting, personalization, and loyalty campaigns, only 46% agree that their campaign
management system is integrated with their loyalty platform well enough to share customer insights and
responses. Campaign management systems help loyalty marketers optimize, integrate across channels, and
manage data in order to deliver relevant communications across channels. Without the ability to apply customer
insights to their program, loyalty decision-makers cannot be effective.
 Aren’t using data and insights to drive personalized offers in real time. Customers want to interact with a
brand in their time and on their terms. If loyalty marketers can’t meet customers’ needs, they risk being passed
over. As such, understanding what customers want and what will motivate desired behaviors is paramount. Of
those surveyed, 67% claim that their offers are easy to understand and target member needs, and 61% claim that
they capture and use customer preferences to tailor their offers. So what about the timeliness? Only 43% agree
that they have the ability to make offers in real time across channels, and even fewer anticipate customer needs
with predictive models for identifying the right offers (40%).
 Need better alignment across the organization. With day-to-day loyalty program operations often spanning
several departments — from marketing to customer service — coordination and integration are key for
maintaining a seamless customer-facing experience. But of those surveyed, only one-third agree that they have
integration capabilities with back-office function, and one-third report real-time integration with customer
touchpoints.
Forrester Consulting
The Customer Loyalty Conundrum
Page 10
Close The Gap Between Perception And Reality
To keep customers engaged and interested in their programs, loyalty decision-makers must innovate. For loyalty
programs to succeed and stand out among the crowd, they have to be more than vehicles for delivering discounts to
anyone and everyone that signs up. In order to actually develop relationships with their best customers and drive
desired behaviors, loyalty decision-makers must reign in their customer data and reconcile how they think they are
doing with reality.
 Improve integration. Loyalty decision-makers shortchange the potential of loyalty programs when they fail to
achieve organizational alignment on loyalty programs. Having a robust loyalty technology platform will help
manage the complete loyalty process and effectively integrate data sources, channels, and systems in real time.
Streamline systems and processes to improve data and maximize customer understanding, and leverage the
customer knowledge that loyalty programs create.
 Focus on real-time customer insights. Real-time data transfer, analysis, messaging, and monitoring will deepen
customer relationships and help loyalty programs prove their trustworthiness by increasing their relevancy and
timeliness. And as consumers increase their interaction with brands across channels, inside and outside the
transaction, real-time readiness will help loyalty decision-makers stay on the top of their game.
 Distance yourself from discounts. Consumers most often sign up for loyalty programs to save money wherever
they can. For many loyalty decision-makers, this means that discount-based programs are a must-have. But since
loyalty programs started as discount programs, consumers have been programmed to expect them. It also means
they are more willing to switch if they find a better offer elsewhere. Shift the focus of the relationship away from
discounts and on to offers that provide aspirational experiences or improved services.
Forrester Consulting
The Customer Loyalty Conundrum
Page 11
KEY RECOMMENDATIONS
Breaking through undifferentiation sometimes requires significant changes to the existing program and supporting
systems. The burden falls on loyalty decision-makers to determine which skill sets, processes, and technologies are
necessary to innovate their loyalty programs.
 Identify perception gaps in your loyalty capabilities. The time for delusion is over. Take a comprehensive and
honest look at your strategy, data collection, and analysis, and offer management across all customer touchpoints.
Where can you modify existing processes to improve execution?
 Increase emphasis on Customer Intelligence maturity. For loyalty, the insights Customer Intelligence creates
guide strategy, offers, and overall program direction. How can you bolster your analytics capabilities? Do you have
the technology required to create the insights necessary to deliver personalized experiences and offers? As the
Customer Intelligence function touches all parts of an organization, consider identifying and collaborating with
other stakeholders to build a stronger business case.
 Consider outsourcing to bolster skill sets/resources. The respondents surveyed for this study insource almost all
of the loyalty value chain. But for resource-strapped, smaller organizations with limited technology skills, managing
loyalty from soup to nuts can prove overwhelming. Consider outsourcing one element of the value chain to cut
costs, make up for lacking skill sets, or take the burden off of your internal IT department.
 Start small, and build on progress. Adopting new channels, refining processes, or integrating technologies may
seem overwhelming, but you don’t have to tackle everything at once. Start with small pieces, assess your progress,
and over time, add pieces to it.
 Measure, measure, measure. Track, measure, and communicate your progress. Don’t just focus on operational
metrics. Use a variety, including improved customer experience, higher customer lifetime value, etc. Continually
measure so that you can make course corrections along the way. Measurement won’t be easy, but it could help you
avoid larger strategic pitfalls down the road.
Forrester Consulting
The Customer Loyalty Conundrum
Page 12
Appendix A: Methodology
In this study, Forrester conducted an online survey of 166 financial services, retail, travel and hospitality, and CPG
organizations in North America and Europe to evaluate how they define and execute customer loyalty strategies. Survey
participants included decision-makers in VP, director-level, or manager roles. Questions provided to the participants
asked about loyalty strategy, budgets, technologies, and challenges. The study began in June 2011 and was completed in
July 2011.
Appendix B: Demographics/Data
Figure 8
Respondent Demographics
Base: 166 customer loyalty decision-makers from North America and Europe
Source: A commissioned study conducted by Forrester Consulting on behalf of SAP, July 2011
Figure 9
Respondent Demographics
Base: 166 customer loyalty decision-makers from North America and Europe
Source: A commissioned study conducted by Forrester Consulting on behalf of SAP, July 2011
“ In which country are you based? ”
US, 50%
UK, 16%
France,
17%
Germany,
17%
“ Which industry vertical are you from? ”
42%
22%
19%
9%
8%
Financial Services
Retail
Consumer Packaged
Goods
Travel
Hospitality
“ To whom does your company sell primarily? "
Exclusively
consumers,
19%
Mostly
consumers,
but some
business,
32%
Consumers
and
businesses
roughly
equal, 32%
Mostly
business,
10%
Exclusively
business,
7%
“ Which of the following most closely describes
the department you work in?”
43%
19%
17%
13%
7%
Marketing
Customer relationship
management (CRM)
Customer service and
support
Customer experience
Merchandizing
Forrester Consulting
The Customer Loyalty Conundrum
Page 13
Figure 10
Respondent Budget Information
Base: 166 customer loyalty decision-makers from North America and Europe
Source: A commissioned study conducted by Forrester Consulting on behalf of SAP, July 2011
Appendix C: Endnotes
1
Survey respondents hailed from a variety of departments including marketing, CRM, customer service and support,
customer experience, and merchandizing.
2
Loyalty has many drivers — including prior experience, customer service, and trust — and boils down to the two-way
relationship between a brand and an engaged consumer. And as it continues to gain popularity, every system — from
Customer Intelligence to customer relationship management (CRM) to marketing automation — that uses customer
data to drive lasting relationships wants a piece of the loyalty pie. We see loyalty breaking out into two major strategies
that bisect a vast vendor landscape. For more full definitions of implicit and explicit loyalty, see “The Customer Loyalty
Ecosystem” report, Forrester Research, INC., April 18, 2011.
3
Forty-five percent of loyalty decision-makers prefer on-premises solutions (application is deployed in the corporate
environment), and 33% prefer a hybrid (combination of on-premises and on-demand solution — customer database is
on-premises, and application is a SaaS solution).
“ What is your current loyalty budget? "
34%
23%
12%
8%
4%
18%
Less than $500,000 USD
$500,000 to less than $2 million USD
$2 million to less than $5 million USD
$5 million to less than $10 million USD
$10 million USD or more
Don't know

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The Customer Loyalty Conundrum by Forrester Consulting

  • 1. A Forrester Consulting Thought Leadership Paper Commissioned By SAP The Customer Loyalty Conundrum Revealing Loyalty Program Decision-Makers’ Delusion September 2011
  • 2. Forrester Consulting The Customer Loyalty Conundrum Page 1 Table Of Contents Executive Summary.................................................................................................................................................................................2  The Current State Of Customer Loyalty .............................................................................................................................................3  Customer Loyalty Technology Adoption............................................................................................................................................6  Loyalty Decision-Makers Overestimate Their Loyalty Capabilities...............................................................................................9  Close The Gap Between Perception And Reality.............................................................................................................................10  Key Recommendations.........................................................................................................................................................................11  Appendix A: Methodology ..................................................................................................................................................................12  Appendix B: Demographics/Data.......................................................................................................................................................12  Appendix C: Endnotes..........................................................................................................................................................................13  © 2011, Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved. Unauthorized reproduction is strictly prohibited. Information is based on best available resources. Opinions reflect judgment at the time and are subject to change. Forrester® , Technographics® , Forrester Wave, RoleView, TechRadar, and Total Economic Impact are trademarks of Forrester Research, Inc. All other trademarks are the property of their respective companies. For additional information, go to www.forrester.com. [1-J1P4HR] About Forrester Consulting Forrester Consulting provides independent and objective research-based consulting to help leaders succeed in their organizations. Ranging in scope from a short strategy session to custom projects, Forrester’s Consulting services connect you directly with research analysts who apply expert insight to your specific business challenges. For more information, visit www.forrester.com/consulting.
  • 3. Forrester Consulting The Customer Loyalty Conundrum Page 2 Customer loyalty is hotter than ever, but loyalty decision-makers overstate their ability to deliver innovative solutions. Executive Summary In the face of a slow economic recovery, companies maintain a strong focus on retaining and deepening relationships with existing customers. They increasingly lean on customer loyalty programs to achieve these goals. But with so many loyalty programs popping up across industries, it gets harder and harder for a single program to stand out. Add in the increasing consumer adoption of social and mobile channels and devices, and loyalty decision-makers face an uphill battle to sift through customer data and deliver meaningful offers in the right place at the right time. In June 2011, SAP commissioned Forrester Consulting to understand how loyalty decision-makers — those involved in customer loyalty programs and strategy across the organization — define and execute customer loyalty.1 They also analyzed how loyalty decision-makers currently use customer data, technology, and analytics to manage customer loyalty programs. Through in-depth surveys with 166 customer loyalty decision-makers from North America and Europe, Forrester found that most loyalty decision-makers overstate the extent to which they integrate their loyalty programs, deliver insight-driven offers and experiences, and measure their loyalty marketing success. Key Findings Forrester’s study yielded the following key findings:  Loyalty marketers are overconfident in their ability to execute loyalty programs. While survey respondents expressed confidence in the depth and breadth of their loyalty strategies, Forrester uncovered holes in their story around data, integration, and customer insight.  Loyalty decision-makers can’t escape the ghost of ROI. Loyalty decision-makers have long struggled to quantify the returns from their marketing efforts. This challenge persists for loyalty decision-makers as well, especially when proving returns across multiple customer touchpoints.  Integrated loyalty program management is a strategic imperative. With consumer mobile and social adoption rapidly increasing, loyalty programs must be able to reach consumers in the right place at the right time. And with loyalty decision-makers still focused on primarily traditional channels, they are missing out on valuable customer data and interaction points. To stay relevant, they must focus on improving integration to better pull together customer data across touchpoints on the front and back end.
  • 4. Forrester Consulting The Customer Loyalty Conundrum Page 3 The Current State Of Customer Loyalty Initiatives directed at customer loyalty expanded significantly over the past several years and recently reached a fever pitch. Loyalty marketing programs and initiatives touch almost every industry and B2C and B2B companies alike. And although the number of programs continually grows, the mostly transactional structure and discount-based benefits of the programs remain relatively unchanged. This makes sense given that most consumers sign up just for the discounts, but lack of differentiation prevents many loyalty decision-makers from achieving the retention, revenue, and customer relationships they desire. With so much competition in the marketplace, defining a standout loyalty strategy proves challenging. Most companies approach loyalty with two related but distinct strategies.2 Although both are grounded in customer data, implicit loyalty initiatives originate in various parts of the organization and influence loyalty without a structured give and get. Explicit loyalty initiatives, on the other hand, have a defined membership, strategy, and reward structure, and they are recognized in the P&L statements. Through in-depth surveys, Forrester found 87% of organizations look to marketing for loyalty strategy assistance, and 57% emphasize an explicit loyalty strategy (see Figure 1). Figure 1 Most Approach Loyalty With An Explicit Strategy Base: 166 customer loyalty decision-makers from North America and Europe Source: A commissioned study conducted by Forrester Consulting on behalf of SAP, July 2011 But developing a loyalty strategy is only half the battle. The execution of that strategy tells how well a program will sink or swim. In this study, Forrester examined the current practices of customer loyalty decision-makers. They found that:  Day-to-day operations fall to customer service. Although marketing is heavily involved in developing the loyalty strategy, the day-to-day operations of the program or initiative often fall across various parts of the organization. Customer service (65%), customer experience (57%), and operations (53%) most often take over to supervise the program or initiatives.  Retention and satisfaction top the list of goals for customer loyalty. Customer loyalty has always been about getting customers to come back. Thus, it comes as no surprise that survey respondents indicated customer retention (72%) and customer satisfaction (54%) as their key business objectives for loyalty. With economic “ Which of the following best describes your company's loyalty strategy? " 28% 19% 38% 14% 1% Implicit loyalty Explicit loyalty A combination of implicit and explicit loyalty with an emphasis on explicit loyalty initiatives A combination of implicit and explicit loyalty with an emphasis on implicit loyalty initiatives Other
  • 5. Forrester Consulting The Customer Loyalty Conundrum Page 4 recovery stagnant at best, reducing churn and increasing customer satisfaction make good business sense. Also in the top five? Profitability and revenue (37%), customer experience (30%), and engagement (29%) (see Figure 2).  Programs are stuck in a discount rut. Forrester asked loyalty decision-makers about their program capabilities and components. As expected, 49% of those surveyed utilize coupon- or discount-based rewards. But less than one-third utilize the experience- or service-based rewards that typically carry a higher perceived value. The exception? The travel industry. Eighteen travel industry respondents have service-based rewards, and one-third have experience-based rewards. They also are more likely to have partnerships to increase the different types of offers available to members of their programs (see Figure 3).  Innovation, establishing accountability, and creating value prove most challenging. Loyalty decision-makers want to heed the call for innovation and start moving beyond discounts, but they aren’t sure how (see Figure 4). Survey respondents indicated that they struggle with delivering offers with a high perceived value (32%) and moving their programs from a simple discount program to a strategic element of their marketing (28%). Likewise, they find it difficult to align their loyalty program with the overarching enterprise strategy (29%). With loyalty operating in a silo separate from the business goals, it’s much harder to manage data quality, share insights, and develop the unified view of the customer needed to deliver timely and valuable offers.  Emerging channels and real-time integration are largely untouched. With the increase in consumer adoption of social and mobile channels, loyalty decision-makers are slowly starting to take these emerging channels more seriously. Forty-five percent of survey respondents integrate with social networks (most of that comes from the travel sector), 26% have a mobile application, and only 7% use gamification. Because use of these channels is still in an experimental phase, many loyalty decision-makers may resist getting their feet wet until they see demonstrated results. They may have to wait a while. Fourteen percent of respondents consider their social networking data “very well measured.” Current data collection focuses on the more traditional offline and online channels, making them difficult to measure.  Measurement skills are immature. Marketers historically struggle to measure marketing ROI, and loyalty marketing is in the same boat. Nearly 60% of survey respondents indicated that measuring results and ROI regardless of channels is their greatest measurement challenge. They also indicated that results attribution and creating a single customer view also prove challenging. But given the historical metrics that loyalty decision- makers claim to measure — sales or revenue (64%), retention (61%), satisfaction (54%) — this comes as no surprise. Few look at comparative or forward-looking metrics like incremental lift (20%), incremental order value (14%), or customer lifetime value (26%). One possible effect of not being able to measure the business value of loyalty? A much more challenging business case for further investments in loyalty initiatives.
  • 6. Forrester Consulting The Customer Loyalty Conundrum Page 5 Figure 2 Customer Retention And Satisfaction Drive Loyalty Efforts Base: 166 customer loyalty decision-makers from North America and Europe (Multiple responses accepted) Source: A commissioned study conducted by Forrester Consulting on behalf of SAP, July 2011 Figure 3 Current Loyalty Programs Are Stuck In A Discount Rut Base: 166 customer loyalty decision-makers from North America and Europe (multiple responses accepted) Source: A commissioned study conducted by Forrester Consulting on behalf of SAP, July 2011 "What are the key business objectives for loyalty programs/initiatives at your company?” 72% 54% 37% 30% 29% 25% 21% 8% 5% 2% Customer retention Customer satisfaction Profitability/Revenue Customer experience Engagement Customer service Customer data collection Customer-centricity Competitive threat Other “ My loyalty program has the following capabilities/components:” 49% 47% 42% 39% 36% 33% 33% 26% 25% 25% 23% 23% 19% 7% 2% Coupon or discount-based rewards Online account management Customer tiering based on value Loyalty currency Integration with social networks Integration with back-end management Service-based rewards Experience-based rewards Real-time integration with customer touchpoints Partner networks Cash-back Shared product services and currencies with partners Mobile application Gamification Other Compared with  other industries,  the travel  respondents were  most likely to  have rewards  based on service  (18 out of 29)
  • 7. Forrester Consulting The Customer Loyalty Conundrum Page 6 58% of CPG respondents prefer on- premises loyalty technology deployments. Figure 4 Loyalty Challenges Abound Base: 166 customer loyalty decision-makers from North America and Europe (does not include responses to “Other” and “None. Our organization is not facing any internal challenges”) Source: A commissioned study conducted by Forrester Consulting on behalf of SAP, July 2011 Customer Loyalty Technology Adoption Across the loyalty value chain, technology powers loyalty program operations and empowers loyalty decision-makers to overcome various challenges: from managing data quality and campaign management, to delivering offers with a high perceived value and justifying costs (see Figure 5). Forrester asked loyalty decision-makers how they currently use technologies, what they plan to adopt, and where they turn for technological needs. Respondents indicate that they:  Want control of the loyalty value chain. Across the board, loyalty decision-makers indicate that they insource loyalty. From strategic services, program, campaign, and offer management, to customer database management and analytics, the majority of respondents prefer to keep loyalty in-house (see Figure 6). Our research shows that firms tend to outsource activities at the top and bottom of the value chain — loyalty strategy and loyalty fulfillment. They also look for on-premises or hybrid solutions for their loyalty technology.3 For those that do outsource some of the loyalty value chain, almost two-thirds do so to lower costs.  Are more willing to outsource partnerships, couponing, and fulfillment. Given the resources and technology required to source, produce, and manage the redemption side of loyalty, it follows that more loyalty decision- “ What would you say are the greatest internal challenges facing your loyalty initiatives today? ” (Rank top three in order of importance) 13% 11% 11% 8% 7% 7% 5% 5% 5% 4% 2% 2% 10% 9% 11% 5% 5% 8% 8% 5% 8% 6% 7% 5% 5% 9% 10% 6% 7% 10% 2% 7% 7% 7% 7% 6% Moving it from a simple discount program to a strategic element of our marketing Aligning our loyalty strategy with the overarching business/enterprise strategy Delivering offers with a high perceived value Ensuring member awareness/understanding of the program and its benefits Proving results to the executive team to garner support and budget Maintaining customer data quality Managing program costs, points liability, and internal and external resources Managing campaigns across multiple marketing technologies Understanding customer interactions across all touch points Differentiating our program from similar efforts in the marketplace Coordination and collaboration with internal groups or external agencies and vendors Ability to make changes to the loyalty programs and processes "1" "2" "3"
  • 8. Forrester Consulting The Customer Loyalty Conundrum Page 7 makers choose to outsource these elements of the loyalty value chain (see Figure 6). An exception? Seventy-two percent of retail and 48% of CPG loyalty decision-makers — whose programs are traditionally coupon-heavy — prefer to manage couponing and fulfillment in-house.  Plan to incorporate more mobile. Technology adoption plans, especially in the near term, reveal that loyalty decision-makers prioritize mobile marketing (see Figure 7). They are planning to adopt in the long and short term mobile websites (52%), applications (45%), and messaging (39%).  Already use social networks except in financial services. With only 29% of respondents currently using social networks (compared with more than 50% in travel, retail, and CPG), financial services lags behind in social adoption. Privacy concerns over sharing sensitive financial data create a barrier to entry right now, but survey results show that financial services loyalty decision-makers aren’t giving up. Among those surveyed, 40% plan to adopt social networks in the next six to 12 months. Figure 5 Technology Helps Overcome ROI, Campaign Management, Data Quality, And Offer Management Woes Base: 166 customer loyalty decision-makers from North America and Europe Source: A commissioned study conducted by Forrester Consulting on behalf of SAP, July 2011 Aligning our loyalty strategy with the overarching business/enterprise strategy Delivering offers with a high perceived value Proving results to the executive team to garner support and budget Maintaining customer data quality Managing program costs, points liability, and internal and external resources Managing campaigns across multiple marketing technologies Understanding customer interactions across all touch points Differentiating our program from similar efforts in the marketplace Coordination and collaboration with internal groups or external agencies and vendors 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% CHALLENGESTHATTECHNOLOGYWILLHELP OVERCOME CHALLENGES FACED BY INTERACTIVE MARKETING ORGANIZATION
  • 9. Forrester Consulting The Customer Loyalty Conundrum Page 8 Figure 6 Loyalty Solutions Managed In-House When Possible Base: 166 customer loyalty decision-makers from North America and Europe Source: A commissioned study conducted by Forrester Consulting on behalf of SAP, July 2011 Figure 7 Loyalty Capability Adoption Base: 166 customer loyalty decision-makers from North America and Europe Source: A commissioned study conducted by Forrester Consulting on behalf of SAP, July 2011 “ Regarding the facets of the loyalty value chain, do you insource or outsource the following? ” 30% 40% 41% 52% 57% 59% 59% 62% 64% 67% 67% 69% 72% 20% 27% 26% 17% 20% 15% 9% 12% 12% 13% 13% 8% 12% 5% 11% 14% 4% 17% 11% 18% 15% 19% 17% 15% 19% 13% 45% 22% 20% 28% 6% 15% 14% 11% 6% 2% 5% 5% 3% 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Gamification Couponing Fulfillment/partnerships Points liability Integration services Points management Real-time offer management Customer support/VOC Loyalty campaign management Customer database management Analytics Strategic services Program management Insource Outsource Hybrid Don't know 72% of Retail  and 48% of  CPG loyalty  decision‐ makers prefer  to manage  couponing and  fulfillment in‐ house. “ How would you describe your company's adoption of the following emerging touch points for loyalty marketing activities? ” 15% 25% 20% 34% 43% 44% 50% 52% 58% 22% 35% 22% 39% 39% 45% 28% 35% 28% 63% 40% 58% 27% 17% 11% 22% 13% 13% 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Gamification 2D barcodes Kiosks Tablet computing Mobile messaging such as SMS Mobile applications User generated content Mobile website Social networks Using or Piloting Planning to use in the long- or short-term No plans to adopt Only 29% of Financial  Services use social  networks. Privacy  concerns are a barrier  to entry, but 40% plan  to adopt social  networks in six to 12  months.
  • 10. Forrester Consulting The Customer Loyalty Conundrum Page 9 For the travel and financial services industries, customer loyalty programs are table stakes. More than three- fourths of travel and financial services respondents agreed that their loyalty strategy plays a role in their CRM, customer, and brand strategies. Loyalty Decision-Makers Overestimate Their Loyalty Capabilities Creating and executing an innovative loyalty strategy is easier said than done. It requires enterprisewide coordination to arrange the strategy, technology, and processes required to be successful. Most loyalty decision-makers seem to believe they are far more advanced than they really are. Survey respondents tell us that their loyalty strategy is well defined and plays a key role in CRM, customer, and brand strategies. They maintain that they build a history of customer interactions with both the brand and loyalty program, that they have a solid business case for loyalty, and that their member base has no confusion about the value of loyalty. But when it comes to executing, further investigation revealed a distinct gap between perception and reality. Less than half of decision-makers surveyed agree that they have the technology and analytics necessary to deliver consistent experiences across customer touchpoints. As we dug deeper, we found that loyalty decision-makers:  Overstate their data collection maturity. Customer data is at the heart of customer loyalty initiatives, and most companies want to think that they focus on best practice data tools, collection, management, and application. Sixty-four percent of those surveyed claim they have the ability to collect, process, store, and integrate data across the front- and back-end systems. But with data collection focusing on traditional channels, and less than half utilizing real-time data transfer or integrating loyalty and nonloyalty customer data, the wind in their sails peters out.  Face integration challenges when applying Customer Intelligence. Customer Intelligence helps loyalty decision-makers get smarter and understand and anticipate customer needs. And while more than half of respondents claim to leverage Customer Intelligence across functions (58%) and use it to drive strategy, segmentation and targeting, personalization, and loyalty campaigns, only 46% agree that their campaign management system is integrated with their loyalty platform well enough to share customer insights and responses. Campaign management systems help loyalty marketers optimize, integrate across channels, and manage data in order to deliver relevant communications across channels. Without the ability to apply customer insights to their program, loyalty decision-makers cannot be effective.  Aren’t using data and insights to drive personalized offers in real time. Customers want to interact with a brand in their time and on their terms. If loyalty marketers can’t meet customers’ needs, they risk being passed over. As such, understanding what customers want and what will motivate desired behaviors is paramount. Of those surveyed, 67% claim that their offers are easy to understand and target member needs, and 61% claim that they capture and use customer preferences to tailor their offers. So what about the timeliness? Only 43% agree that they have the ability to make offers in real time across channels, and even fewer anticipate customer needs with predictive models for identifying the right offers (40%).  Need better alignment across the organization. With day-to-day loyalty program operations often spanning several departments — from marketing to customer service — coordination and integration are key for maintaining a seamless customer-facing experience. But of those surveyed, only one-third agree that they have integration capabilities with back-office function, and one-third report real-time integration with customer touchpoints.
  • 11. Forrester Consulting The Customer Loyalty Conundrum Page 10 Close The Gap Between Perception And Reality To keep customers engaged and interested in their programs, loyalty decision-makers must innovate. For loyalty programs to succeed and stand out among the crowd, they have to be more than vehicles for delivering discounts to anyone and everyone that signs up. In order to actually develop relationships with their best customers and drive desired behaviors, loyalty decision-makers must reign in their customer data and reconcile how they think they are doing with reality.  Improve integration. Loyalty decision-makers shortchange the potential of loyalty programs when they fail to achieve organizational alignment on loyalty programs. Having a robust loyalty technology platform will help manage the complete loyalty process and effectively integrate data sources, channels, and systems in real time. Streamline systems and processes to improve data and maximize customer understanding, and leverage the customer knowledge that loyalty programs create.  Focus on real-time customer insights. Real-time data transfer, analysis, messaging, and monitoring will deepen customer relationships and help loyalty programs prove their trustworthiness by increasing their relevancy and timeliness. And as consumers increase their interaction with brands across channels, inside and outside the transaction, real-time readiness will help loyalty decision-makers stay on the top of their game.  Distance yourself from discounts. Consumers most often sign up for loyalty programs to save money wherever they can. For many loyalty decision-makers, this means that discount-based programs are a must-have. But since loyalty programs started as discount programs, consumers have been programmed to expect them. It also means they are more willing to switch if they find a better offer elsewhere. Shift the focus of the relationship away from discounts and on to offers that provide aspirational experiences or improved services.
  • 12. Forrester Consulting The Customer Loyalty Conundrum Page 11 KEY RECOMMENDATIONS Breaking through undifferentiation sometimes requires significant changes to the existing program and supporting systems. The burden falls on loyalty decision-makers to determine which skill sets, processes, and technologies are necessary to innovate their loyalty programs.  Identify perception gaps in your loyalty capabilities. The time for delusion is over. Take a comprehensive and honest look at your strategy, data collection, and analysis, and offer management across all customer touchpoints. Where can you modify existing processes to improve execution?  Increase emphasis on Customer Intelligence maturity. For loyalty, the insights Customer Intelligence creates guide strategy, offers, and overall program direction. How can you bolster your analytics capabilities? Do you have the technology required to create the insights necessary to deliver personalized experiences and offers? As the Customer Intelligence function touches all parts of an organization, consider identifying and collaborating with other stakeholders to build a stronger business case.  Consider outsourcing to bolster skill sets/resources. The respondents surveyed for this study insource almost all of the loyalty value chain. But for resource-strapped, smaller organizations with limited technology skills, managing loyalty from soup to nuts can prove overwhelming. Consider outsourcing one element of the value chain to cut costs, make up for lacking skill sets, or take the burden off of your internal IT department.  Start small, and build on progress. Adopting new channels, refining processes, or integrating technologies may seem overwhelming, but you don’t have to tackle everything at once. Start with small pieces, assess your progress, and over time, add pieces to it.  Measure, measure, measure. Track, measure, and communicate your progress. Don’t just focus on operational metrics. Use a variety, including improved customer experience, higher customer lifetime value, etc. Continually measure so that you can make course corrections along the way. Measurement won’t be easy, but it could help you avoid larger strategic pitfalls down the road.
  • 13. Forrester Consulting The Customer Loyalty Conundrum Page 12 Appendix A: Methodology In this study, Forrester conducted an online survey of 166 financial services, retail, travel and hospitality, and CPG organizations in North America and Europe to evaluate how they define and execute customer loyalty strategies. Survey participants included decision-makers in VP, director-level, or manager roles. Questions provided to the participants asked about loyalty strategy, budgets, technologies, and challenges. The study began in June 2011 and was completed in July 2011. Appendix B: Demographics/Data Figure 8 Respondent Demographics Base: 166 customer loyalty decision-makers from North America and Europe Source: A commissioned study conducted by Forrester Consulting on behalf of SAP, July 2011 Figure 9 Respondent Demographics Base: 166 customer loyalty decision-makers from North America and Europe Source: A commissioned study conducted by Forrester Consulting on behalf of SAP, July 2011 “ In which country are you based? ” US, 50% UK, 16% France, 17% Germany, 17% “ Which industry vertical are you from? ” 42% 22% 19% 9% 8% Financial Services Retail Consumer Packaged Goods Travel Hospitality “ To whom does your company sell primarily? " Exclusively consumers, 19% Mostly consumers, but some business, 32% Consumers and businesses roughly equal, 32% Mostly business, 10% Exclusively business, 7% “ Which of the following most closely describes the department you work in?” 43% 19% 17% 13% 7% Marketing Customer relationship management (CRM) Customer service and support Customer experience Merchandizing
  • 14. Forrester Consulting The Customer Loyalty Conundrum Page 13 Figure 10 Respondent Budget Information Base: 166 customer loyalty decision-makers from North America and Europe Source: A commissioned study conducted by Forrester Consulting on behalf of SAP, July 2011 Appendix C: Endnotes 1 Survey respondents hailed from a variety of departments including marketing, CRM, customer service and support, customer experience, and merchandizing. 2 Loyalty has many drivers — including prior experience, customer service, and trust — and boils down to the two-way relationship between a brand and an engaged consumer. And as it continues to gain popularity, every system — from Customer Intelligence to customer relationship management (CRM) to marketing automation — that uses customer data to drive lasting relationships wants a piece of the loyalty pie. We see loyalty breaking out into two major strategies that bisect a vast vendor landscape. For more full definitions of implicit and explicit loyalty, see “The Customer Loyalty Ecosystem” report, Forrester Research, INC., April 18, 2011. 3 Forty-five percent of loyalty decision-makers prefer on-premises solutions (application is deployed in the corporate environment), and 33% prefer a hybrid (combination of on-premises and on-demand solution — customer database is on-premises, and application is a SaaS solution). “ What is your current loyalty budget? " 34% 23% 12% 8% 4% 18% Less than $500,000 USD $500,000 to less than $2 million USD $2 million to less than $5 million USD $5 million to less than $10 million USD $10 million USD or more Don't know