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Amplify Talk

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Jamais Cascio
Jamais Cascio

Slides for talk given at Amplify09 in Sydney, Australia.

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re•making tomorrow JAMAIS CASCIO JUNE 2009
What if we really COULD change the future for the better?
THREE NUMBERS
74,000 50 3
74,000
74,000 Years Ago
50
50 Year Scenario
Jamais Casio Research Affiliate Institute for the Future Ten-Year Forecast Annual Retreat April 20–21, 2009 © 2009 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. | SR-1229 12
WORLD-WIDE DEPRESSION BANK FAILURES MASS UNEMPLOYMENT POLITICAL INSTABILITY
GLOBAL WAR TRIGGERED BY MISCOMMUNICATION WIDESPREAD CHEMICAL WARFARE NEW MILITARY TECHNOLOGIES
DEADLY PANDEMIC MILLIONS DIE A GENERATION LOST BURNS ITSELF OUT
ANOTHER WORLD-WIDE DEPRESSION HYPER-INFLATION RISE OF TOTALITARIAN GOVERNMENTS RADICAL ECONOMIC EXPERIMENTS
EVEN LARGER WORLD WAR EVERY CONTINENT INVOLVED GENOCIDE AS A WEAPON CULMINATES IN A NUCLEAR ATTACK
HOW LIKELY IS THIS SCENARIO?
HOW LIKELY IS THIS SCENARIO? IT ALREADY HAPPENED.
THE “LONG DEPRESSION,” 1870S-1890S 19 4
WORLD WAR I 20 5
GREAT INFLUENZA 21 6
GREAT DEPRESSION 22 7
WORLD WAR II 23 8
THIS CENTURY’S CHALLENGES...
climate disruption
climate disruption
resource collapse
resource collapse
financial meltdown
financial meltdown
the rise of the post- hegemonic era
the rise of the post- hegemonic era
AND REFUGEES AND PANDEMICS AND TOPSOIL DEGRADATION AND OVERPOPULATION AND REGIONAL WARS AND BIOTERROR AND NANOTERROR AND SPAM AND...
RESILIENCE
RESILIENCE RESILIENCE: THE CAPACITY OF A SYSTEM TO TOLERATE DISTURBANCE WITHOUT COLLAPSING, TO WITHSTAND SHOCKS, TO REBUILD ITSELF WHEN NECESSARY, AND TO IMPROVE ITSELF WHEN POSSIBLE.
flexibility
participation
interconnection
augmented awareness
catalytic innovation
3
3%
THE BIG PICTURE
JAMAIS CASCIO CASCIO@OPENTHEFUTURE.COM WWW.OPENTHEFUTURE.COM TWITTER: @CASCIO

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