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Crude Oil Calendar Spreads &
            Flies
Benchmarks of Crude Oil
•   West Texas Intermediate (WTI)
•   Brent
•   Dubai
•   OPEC basket
Benchmarks Traded
• WTI
• Brent
Specification of future contract
• Price : $/barrel
• Qty in 1 lot : 1000 barrel
• Min Movement : 1cent
Characteristics of Crude oil
• API Gravity
     • Higher the API gravity lighter the liquid
• Specific Gravity
     • Ratio of Density
• Sulphur Content
     • Lower the sulphur content better the quality
Comparison of WTI & Brent
WTI Crude oil                Brent Crude oil
• API Gravity : 39.6         • API Gravity : 38.06
• Specific Gravity : 0.827   • Specific Gravity : 0.835
• Sulphur Content : 0.24%    • Sulphur Content : 0.37%
Brent Term Structure
123
                                                                              outright
122
          121.83
                       121.21
121
                                    120.79
                                                 120.27
120
                                                              119.62
119                                                                        118.91
                                                                                        118.27
118
                                                                                                     117.62
117                                                                                                               117.02        116.91
                                                                                                                                              116.36                 outright
116
                                                                                                                                                            115.79

115

114

113

112
      1            2            3            4            5            6            7            8            9            10            11            12
WTI Term Structure
95.5
                                                                    outright
                                                                                                                                           95.1
 95                                                                                                                           94.98
                                                                                                                 94.82
                                                                                                    94.75
                                                                                        94.63
94.5                                                                         94.5
                                                                  94.4
                                                      94.28

 94                                          94
                                 93.78

93.5                  93.5
                                                                                                                                                  outright

           93.1
 93



92.5



 92
       1          2          3           4        5           6          7          8           9           10           11           12
Contango & Backwardation
• Contango: Futures Price > Spot Price

• Backwardation : Futures Price < Spot Price
Calendar Spread
• Difference between two month crude outright
  prices of the same benchmark
• 1st month crude future price – 2nd month price
  = 1st month calendar spread and so on
Example
•   June crude futures price = 94.50
•   July Crude futures Price = 94.83
•   August Crude futures Price = 95.10
•   September Crude Futures Price = 95.38

Price of first, second and third month calendar
                     Spreads ??
Flies
• Difference of calendar Spreads
     • Calculated the same way as the spreads

     FLY Calculation
Factors affecting calendar Spreads and
               flies price
•   Supply and Demand of crude oil
•   Weather conditions
•   Overall Sentiment in crude futures market
•   Geo political Situations
Calculations
• First month : 94.50-94.83 = -0.33
• Second month : 94.83-95.10 = -0.27
• Third Month : 95.10-95.38 = -0.28
Fly Calculations
• First month Fly : (-0.33) – (-0.27) = 0.06
• Second month Fly : (-0.27) – (-0.28) = 0.01

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Introduction to Commodity Spreads

  • 1. Crude Oil Calendar Spreads & Flies
  • 2. Benchmarks of Crude Oil • West Texas Intermediate (WTI) • Brent • Dubai • OPEC basket
  • 4. Specification of future contract • Price : $/barrel • Qty in 1 lot : 1000 barrel • Min Movement : 1cent
  • 5. Characteristics of Crude oil • API Gravity • Higher the API gravity lighter the liquid • Specific Gravity • Ratio of Density • Sulphur Content • Lower the sulphur content better the quality
  • 6. Comparison of WTI & Brent WTI Crude oil Brent Crude oil • API Gravity : 39.6 • API Gravity : 38.06 • Specific Gravity : 0.827 • Specific Gravity : 0.835 • Sulphur Content : 0.24% • Sulphur Content : 0.37%
  • 7. Brent Term Structure 123 outright 122 121.83 121.21 121 120.79 120.27 120 119.62 119 118.91 118.27 118 117.62 117 117.02 116.91 116.36 outright 116 115.79 115 114 113 112 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
  • 8. WTI Term Structure 95.5 outright 95.1 95 94.98 94.82 94.75 94.63 94.5 94.5 94.4 94.28 94 94 93.78 93.5 93.5 outright 93.1 93 92.5 92 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
  • 9. Contango & Backwardation • Contango: Futures Price > Spot Price • Backwardation : Futures Price < Spot Price
  • 10. Calendar Spread • Difference between two month crude outright prices of the same benchmark • 1st month crude future price – 2nd month price = 1st month calendar spread and so on
  • 11. Example • June crude futures price = 94.50 • July Crude futures Price = 94.83 • August Crude futures Price = 95.10 • September Crude Futures Price = 95.38 Price of first, second and third month calendar Spreads ??
  • 12. Flies • Difference of calendar Spreads • Calculated the same way as the spreads FLY Calculation
  • 13. Factors affecting calendar Spreads and flies price • Supply and Demand of crude oil • Weather conditions • Overall Sentiment in crude futures market • Geo political Situations
  • 14. Calculations • First month : 94.50-94.83 = -0.33 • Second month : 94.83-95.10 = -0.27 • Third Month : 95.10-95.38 = -0.28
  • 15. Fly Calculations • First month Fly : (-0.33) – (-0.27) = 0.06 • Second month Fly : (-0.27) – (-0.28) = 0.01