This document provides a summary of key indicators and trends in the Las Vegas industrial real estate market for the first quarter of 2010:
- The industrial vacancy rate increased to 15.0% from 14.0% last quarter, up 3.2% from a year ago.
- Average asking lease rates decreased slightly to $0.60 per square foot from $0.64 at the end of 2009.
- No new construction was completed during the quarter as developers have halted many projects.
- Net absorption was negative at -1,038,635 square feet as the economic outlook remains a concern.
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LAS VEGAS
1ST QTR 2010
INDUSTRIAL
MARKET REPORT
3800 Howard Hughes, Pkwy, Suite 1200 | Las Vegas, NV 89169
Tel: 702.796.7900 | Fax: 702.796.7920 | www.comre.com
2. 1ST QTR INDUSTRIAL MARKET REPORT
AT A GLANCE Industrial Market Indicators
• Industrial vacancy rates in the Las Vegas area Current Change Since
once again rose this quarter, this time by 98 basis 1Q10 1Q09
points, to 15.0% in comparison to 14.0% in the Vacancy 15.01%
fourth quarter. The current vacancy rate is up 3.2%
Lease Rates (NNN) $0.60 NNN
from a year ago when rates averaged 11.7%. With
new development at a stand still, vacancy should Net Absorption* (1,038,635)
begin to stabilize as space is absorbed. Construction N/A
• Average asking lease rates showed a slight *The arrows are trend indicators over the specified time period and do not
decrease throughout the past quarter. By the end represent a positive or negative value. (e.g., absorption could be negative,
of 2009, the market showed an average rate of but still represent a positive trend over a specified period.)
$0.64 per square foot (psf), however by the end of
first quarter the rate dropped to $0.60 psf.
• Developers have halted many projects resulting 15%
in no new construction completions during first 13%
quarter. Going forward, only 967,973 sf of under 11% Las Vegas – 13.9%
Nevada – 13.2%
construction product is still in the pipeline. With 9% US – 9.7%
the continued hesitation of developers to build 7%
product in the current economic conditions, we 5% Unemployment rates 1Q10
don’t expect much of the planned product to 3%
come online any time soon. 1%
• The economic outlook continues to be a -1%
1Q07
3Q07
1Q08
4Q08
2Q09
4Q09
2Q07
4Q07
2Q08
3Q08
1Q09
3Q09
1Q10
growing concern for both landlords and tenants
as tighter credit terms; rising inflation and rising
unemployment continue to affect the Las Vegas
area.
• On the bright side, activity has picked up in ECONOMIC INDICATORS
comparison to 2009.
National 2009 2010F 2011F
NATIONAL AND STATE EMPLOYMENT AND GDP Growth -2.4% 2.8% 3.7%
UNEMPLOYMENT OVERVIEW CPI Growth -0.3% 1.9% 2.1%
Regional
National unemployment Unemployment 12.1% 13.9% 13.5%
rates reached a 28 year
Employment Growth -6.2% -1.8% 0.4%
high at 10.4% with roughly 11
Source: Moody’s | Economy.com
million unemployed workers
that are now drawing
unemployment insurance SIGNIFICANT 1Q10 NEW LEASE TRANSACTIONS
benefits. In February alone, 27 states recorded BUILDING TENANT SF PROPERTY TYPE
unemployment rate increases. The highest
4335 Arcata Way Moen Inc 219,068 Warehouse
regional jobless rates were in the Western part
of the country, while the Northeast recorded Traverse Point Ocean Spray 100,693 Warehouse
Cranberries
the lowest rates. Michigan again recorded the
highest unemployment rate among the states at 840 Pilot Rd Vitacost.com 90,000 Warehouse
14.1% in February. The states with the next highest SIGNIFICANT 1Q10 SALE TRANSACTIONS
rates were Nevada, 13.2%; Rhode Island, 12.7%; BUILDING BUYER SF PURCHASE
California and South Carolina, 12.5% each; and PRICE
Florida, 12.2%. The Las Vegas economy continues Decatur Crossing York Decatur 140,594 $17,750,000
to be impacted by downturns and a high Crossing
employment rate, currently 13.9%, in all major Park West Business Ctr Edward Kuchar 23,517 $2,000,000
sectors, including gaming, construction, financial Coleman Airpark Moca LLC 12,439 $750,000
and real estate. The recession will most likely be a
SIGNIFICANT 1Q10 CONSTRUCTION COMPLETIONS
“jobless recovery.” Since World War II there have
been a total of 11 recessions and in the most BUILDING MAJOR TENANT SF COMPLETION
DATE
recent recessions before the 2007 recession, job
growth lagged long after the recession. In fact it N/A
took several years for the unemployment rate to SIGNIFICANT PROJECTS UNDER CONSTRUCTION
return back to prerecession levels. Employment BUILDING MAJOR TENANT SF COMPLETION
growth is critical to future economic growth DATE
and the return to a healthy commercial market Civic Center N/A 124,135 2/10
which may take several years to accomplish.
Blue Diamond Business N/A 250,000 3/10
3. 1ST QTR INDUSTRIAL MARKET REPORT
LAS VEGAS MARKET OVERVIEW
As we start the New Year, the could be hit, much like the housing bust has caused.
big question on everyone’s Troubled commercial real estate loans could be the
minds is what is going to primary force behind bank failures this year. Elizabeth
happen next and will the signs Warren, chair of the TARP Congressional Oversight
of recovery start to show and panel stated “Around half of all commercial mortgages
what will it look like for the Las will be underwater by the end of 2010, posing a very
Vegas market. Experts around serious problem for the economy over the next three
the nation believe that recovery will start to show by years.”
early 2011 and in some areas may have already hit
rock bottom. UNLV Economics Department Chairman
Dr. Stephen Miller says “Improvements in taxable sales,
LAS VEGAS INDUSTRIAL MARKET
gaming revenue and McCarran Airport passenger
counts are good indicators of an improving economy The Las Vegas industrial market posted additional
(for the Las Vegas market).” Miller goes on to state upward movement in vacancy rising to 15.01% during
that “a lot of things are happening locally that are 1st quarter 2010. The Central submarket continues to
suggestions that the economy is trying to reach show the lowest vacancy rate at 8.55% along with
bottom and turn around.” While Southern Nevada’s Speedway at 11.09% and the Southwest submarket
local economy may be starting to see the bottom at 13.81%. The highest vacancy submarkets are the
of the commercial recession period, some experts Northwest at 26.57%, Airport at 21.25% and West
are still analyzing declining property values, maturing submarket at 15.84%. Vacancy rates for all product
commercial loans, ownership vs. leasing, the benefit of types in the industrial market have increased during
receiverships and the local business activity. the 1st quarter with Distribution increasing to 15.00%
from 14.14%, Flex increasing to 23.29% from 21.64%,
According to Kenneth P. Riggs, President and CEO of Freestanding increasing to 9.62% from 8.36%, Incubator
RERC, “The past decade has served up some tough increasing to 16.34% from 16.30%, and Midbay
lessons about acting on our gut instincts and about increasing to 19.38% from 18.01%. The high vacancy
what makes sense and what simply does not fit with rates are a result of newer buildings that have come on
sustainable practices. But for investors seeking to seize line with little or no pre-leasing activity, combined with
market opportunities, 2010 is time to gear up for a lease concessions, defaults and downsizing which is
possible once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to snag key causing vacancy to rise. Sublease space in 1st quarter
long-term investments in commercial real estate.” showed current availability at 1,589,497 sf (1.57% of
In 2010, with leasing activity lagging, we are seeing the total market). Net absorption for the 1st quarter
more landlords willing to hang “For Lease” and “For showed in the negatives again at -1,038,635 SF. The
Sale” signs on their buildings. John Kulper, President of Speedway submarket showed the greatest amount of
Commercial Alliance of Realtors, wrote, “While lenders positive absorption with over 79,282 sf for 1st quarter
generally are avoiding investment real estate, owner- while the North Las Vegas submarket posted the least
occupied commercial real estate is beginning to look amount with -424,311 sf of negative absorption.
attractive again.” Real Capital Analytics also agrees
stating that “owner-occupied purchase now represent
almost 10% of global transactions and will be involved
in a greater share of property deals.” In a recent study,
most commercial brokerage firm’s executives believe
that “real estate prices now make it more financially
advantageous to buy rather than lease.” In the Las
Vegas market, commercial property values and asking
rates continued to fall this quarter which may help with
the decision to either buy or lease.
The Federal Government is also monitoring the
weakness of the commercial real estate market. The
Feds believe that the weakness of commercial loans is
a very serious problem because the whole economy
4. 1ST QTR INDUSTRIAL MARKET REPORT
Industrial: Inventory (SF) and Vacancy Rate (%)
Industrial: Quarterly Vacancy
110,000,000 Industrial: Inventory (SF) and Vacancy Rate (%) 16%
16% 14.03%
110,000,000 16% 14%
14% 14.03%
100,000,000 14%
12%
12% 100,000,000
12%
90,000,000 10%
10%
90,000,000 10%
8% 8%
80,000,000 8%
6% 6%
80,000,000 6%
4% 4%
70,000,000 4%
70,000,000 2%
2%
2%
0% 60,000,000 0%
60,000,000 0%
6
6
6
6
7
7
7
7
8
9
0
8
8
8
9
9
9
Q 3 07
10 7
20 8
30 8
60 6
6
6
Q 06
Q 07
Q 07
40 8
10 08
99
99
99
009
0
20
30
40
10
20
30
40
11
10
20
30
40
10
20
30
40
10
Q Q 30
20 0
3020
4030
11
Q 40
Q 10
Q 20
260
360
Q Q4
Q Q1
114
46
Q7
Q7
Q7
Q7
Q8
Q8
8
8
9
1
2
1 01
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
QQ
QQ
QQ
Q
40
Q
Q
20
30
40
10
20
30
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
QQ
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Industrial: Quarterly Absorption (SF)
Industrial: Industrial Employment vs Vacancy RateRate (%)
Industrial: Industrial Employment vs Vacancy (%)
2,500,000 250,000 18%
250,000 18%
2,000,000 16%
16%
1,500,000 225,000
225,000 15.01%
15.01%
14% 14%
1,000,000 14.03%
14.03%
200,000
200,000 11.77%
11.77% 12.92%
12.92% 13.35%
13.35% 12% 12%
500,000
10% 10%
- 175,000
175,000
8% 8%
Q1 06
Q2 06
Q3 06
Q4 06
Q1 07
Q2 07
Q3 07
Q4 07
Q1 08
Q2 08
Q308
Q408
Q109
Q209
Q309
Q409
Q110
(500,000)
150,000 6%
150,000 6%
(1,000,000)
4%
125,000 4%
(1,500,000) 125,000 2%
2%
(2,000,000)
100,000 0%
100,000 0%
(2,500,000)
10 9
Q 209
9
9
0
Q Q10
30
40
11
9
9
9
9
0
Q
Q
Q
Q
(3,000,000)
20
30
40
11
Q
Q
Q
Industrial Type Vacancy Rates
Industrial Type Vacancy Rates
NEW SUPPLY (COMPLETIONS) AND MARKET
Distribution,
15.00%
Distribution,
Midbay, 19.38%
DEMANDS
15.00%
Midbay, 19.38%
Developers have halted many projects resulting in
no new construction completions during 1st quarter.
Going forward, only 967,973 sf of under construction Incubator, 16.34% Flex, 23.29%
product is still in the pipeline. With the continued Incubator, 16.34% Flex, 23.29%
hesitation of developers to build product, due to scarce Freestanding,
construction financing and weak rents, we also don’t 9.62%
Freestanding,
expect much of the planned product to come online 9.62%
any time soon. Future new supply levels will continue to
shrink as market corrections are underway. It may take
another five years for the housing market to become
stable, credit to start flowing and employment to
become active again before any rise in construction up periods, slow economic conditions and growing
numbers. For a smart recovery, the industrial market commercial defaults will contribute to increased
needs to solve the imbalance of supply and demand repossession activity by lenders that will result in further
by allowing existing vacant space to be absorbed and price adjustments.
wait out this business cycle before any major growth
should happen. The market wide industrial average asking rental rate
has dropped to $0.60 PSF, the lowest rate we have
PRICING (AVERAGE ASKING RENTS) seen since 1st quarter 2006 when it was at $0.50 PSF.
By product type, average Distribution lease rates were
Pricing within the industrial sector continues to drop $0.50 PSF at the end of 1st quarter. Freestanding units
as landlords work with tenants and offer better tenant reported rents of $0.64 PSF, while Flex space averaged
improvement allowances, greater concessions and $0.68 PSF. Pricing for Midbay and Incubator space
even negotiate new lease terms. Short term leases came in at $0.54 and $0.72 PSF, respectively.
seem to be a trend in the market where tenants have
a controlling position. The effect of extended lease
5. 1ST QTR INDUSTRIAL MARKET REPORT
Industrial Submarket - Direct vs Sublease Vacancy
US since the Great Depression. To date, Southern
Nevada has not enjoyed the same level of increase
35.00%
in business activity as the rest of the US.” The local
30.00%
26.57% economy will not pick up until we see robust growth
25.00%
21.25%
in hiring. According to the survey with only 10 %
20.00% of business anticipated to hire more workers, the
recovery will be very slow for the Las Vegas area.
15.53% 15.84%
14.44% 1 %
5.01
15.00% 1 %
3.81
We are optimistic going into 2010 that the bottom
1 .09%
1
10.00% 8.55%
5.00%
2.05%
2.90%
1.57%
is near and compared to last year, vacancy is not
rising and lease rates are not falling as fast or as far
1.03% 0.39% 0.59% 0.63%
0.00% 0.00%
0.00%
North Las Las Vegas
Airport Central Southeast
Vegas
Speedway Northwest Southwest West
Area Total as we were witnessing.
Vacacny % 21.25% 8.55% 15.53% 14.44% 11.09% 26.57% 13.81% 15.84% 15.01%
Sublease % 1.03% 0.39% 0.59% 2.05% 0.00% 0.00% 2.90% 0.63% 1.57%
Some early signs of stabilization may come from
the growth of energy and clean technology
companies and the growing strength of data
Industrial Type Average Lease Lease Rates
Industrial Type Average Rates centers. According to a recent survey conducted
Distribution,
Distribution, by Campos Research, 83% of senior decision
Midbay, $0.54 $0.54
Midbay, $0.50 $0.50 markers at large corporations in North America “are
planning data center expansions in the next 12 to 24
months.” The report goes on to state that, “most of
the existing data centers are not able to handle the
new advanced power and cooling capabilities that
Flex, $0.68 $0.68
Flex, the data center equipment warrants.” The Digital
Incubator, $0.72 $0.72
Incubator, Realty Trust’s survey agrees that data centers are
growing due to the “need for additional power..70%
of planned data centers are 15,000 sf or larger and
at least 2 megawatts or greater of power.” In fact
Freestanding,
Freestanding,
$0.64 $0.64 the survey states that “the cost and availability
of power is more important than the square feet
leased or owned.” Many states around the nation
18.00% 18.00%
Industrial: Inventory Vacancy Rate vs Average Lease Rate
Industrial: Inventory Vacancy Rate vs Average Lease Rate
$0.90 $0.90
are looking at how to move data center locations
17.00% 17.00% to their market and Las Vegas could be a great
16.00% 16.00% $0.80 $0.80
market to see these types of industrial expansions
15.00% 15.00%
$0.70 $0.70
due to our low energy rates compared to most of
14.00% 14.00%
13.00% 13.00% the western states.
$0.60 $0.60
12.00% 12.00%
11.00% 11.00%
$0.50 $0.50
10.00% 10.00%
9.00% 9.00%
$0.40 $0.40
8.00% 8.00%
7.00% 7.00%
$0.30 $0.30
6.00% 6.00%
5.00% 5.00% $0.20
$0.20
4.00% 4.00%
3.00% 3.00% $0.10 $0.10
2.00% 2.00%
1.00% 1.00% $0.00 $0.00
30 7
40 7
10 7
20 7
30 8
30 5
40 5
10 5
20 5
30 6
40 6
10 6
20 6
0
30 9
40 9
11 9
9
40 8
10 8
20 8
7
7
7
8
5
5
5
5
6
6
6
6
7
9
9
9
0
8
8
8
9
11
Q 10
Q 20
Q 30
40
Q 20
Q 30
Q 40
0
0
0
Q4 0
Q1 0
Q10
Q20
Q30
Q40
Q10
0
Q30
Q40
10
20
Q2
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
OUTLOOK
In the coming months we expect commercial real
estate prices to decline further and we won’t see any
true recovery until the end of the year to early next
year. The market will continue to be impacted by
cautious consumer and companies activity, causing
vacancies to remain elevated and most likely continue
to increase. Rents will also continue to be impacted
by the current economy and will continue to fall.
According to a report produced by UNLV’s CBER
“Southern Nevada business will continue to struggle
with the after effects of the deepest recession in the
7. 1ST QTR INDUSTRIAL MARKET REPORT
Las Vegas Industrial Overview 2003-2010
9,000,000
8,000,000 15.01% 16.00%
14.03%
7,000,000
6,000,000
Square Feet
Vacancy
5,000,000 8.90% 11.00%
11.11%
4,000,000 7.03%
3,000,000
4.84% 6.00%
2,000,000 4.95%
1,000,000 3.43%
0 1.00%
0 6 5 7 7 3 4 7
22 95 66 46 94 43 76 97
4, 1, 8, 2, 3, 21
,
03
,
24
,
,96 ,00 ,15 ,20 ,57 2,4 0,9 1,0
73 78 81 87 89 10 10 10
$0.52 $0.56 $0.67 $0.75 $0.79 $0.78 $0.64 $0.60
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Planned Under Construction Total Space Completed
Net Absorption Vacancy Rate
Industrial Buildings Can Be Classified as Follows:
• Manufacturing Building (Incubator / Midbay): Buildings with heavy power or the ability
to accommodate heavy equipment. Generally has thick-flooring, some grade-level
doors and less than 20% office. Usually very specialized. Incubator – 500-1500 sf divisibility,
minimal office, on roll-up door / Midbay – 5,000-15,000 sf divisibility, 10-15% office build-
out, dock high and grade level loading.)
• Warehouse/Distribution Building: 1-story industrial buildings designed primarily for
distribution, 0-30% office, clear ceiling heights ranging 16’-28’, dock level truck loading
and easy accessibility to transportation routes. Over 15,000sf divisibility, 3-5% office
build-out, multiple docks and grade level loading.)
• High-Tech Building (Freestanding): Flexible use space designed for office, research and
development, light assembly, laboratory and other tech-oriented uses. Typically 1 or
2 story, 80-100% office finish, ceiling heights between 12’-15’. Freestanding – Single or
Dual user
• Office Service/Flex Building: 1-story buildings designed for 20-100% office spaces that
have ceiling heights between 12’-15’. 1,500-3,000 sf divisibility, 40% or more office build-
out, one roll-up door, high visibility.