Velocity is perhaps the most useful metric available to agile teams. In this session we will look at advanced uses of velocity for planning under special but common circumstances. We will see how to forecast velocity in the complete absence of any historical data. We will look at how a new team can forecast velocity by looking at other teams. We will see how to predict the velocity of a team that will grow or shrink in size. Most importantly we will look at the use of confidence intervals to create plans we can be 90% confident in, even on fixed-price or fixed-date contracts.

1. Advanced
Agile Planning
Mike Cohn
NDC London
6 December 2013
1
The planning onion
Strategy
Portfolio
Product
Team focuses here
Team focuses here
Iteration
Team focuses here
®
Release
Daily
© Copyright Mountain Goat Software
2

2. Release and iteration planning
Release Plan
Iteration 1
Iteration 2 Iteration 3
Iterations 4–7
Plan
IterationIteration Plan
6
Code the … e the …
Cod
4
Decide …
Test the …
6
…
Test theDesign a …
8
Automate … the …
Code
8
12
8
6
© Copyright Mountain Goat Software
®
3
What’s a good plan?
A good plan is one that supports reliable
decision-making
Will go from
We’ll be done in the third quarter
We’ll be done in December
“It’s better to be
We’ll be done 18 December ghly right than
rou
precisely wrong.”
—J.M. Keynes
®
© Copyright Mountain Goat Software
4

3. Velocity
An iteration
4
Velocity = 15
10
3
1
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®
5
Velocity
A useful long-term measure of the amount of
work completed per iteration
Most useful over at least a handful of iterations
40
Velocity
30
Velocity is measured
in the units you use
to estimate product
backlog items
20
10
0
®
1
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
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6

4. Planning Scenarios
Five
data
A team with historical
Fixed-date plans
Fixed-scope plans
data
A team with no velocity
A team changing size
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®
7
Calculate a confidence interval from
Iterations to
historical data
# of
historical
iterations
35
38
39
40
90% confidence
interval
40
41
45
Sorted Velocities
®
0
8–10
11–12
13–15
1
2
3
16–17
4
18–20
21–22
23–25
5
6
7
26+
34
throw out
from each
each end
0–7
27
8
© Copyright Mountain Goat Software
8

5. Extrapolate from the velocity range
We’ll almost certainly get here (5×34=170)
The most we can realistically expect (5×41=205)
Product
Backlog
®
Assume there
are five
iterations left
© Copyright Mountain Goat Software
9
© Copyright Mountain Goat Software
10
Use the online velocity
range calculator at
mountaingoatsoftware.com/tools
®

6. Planning Scenarios
Five
data
A team with historical
Fixed-date plans
Fixed-scope plans
data
A team with no velocity
A team changing size
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®
11
Fixed-date planning
Three steps
1. Determine how many iterations
you have.
2. Estimate velocity as a range.
3. Use that range × the number of
iterations to partition the backlog
into Will Have, Might Have, and
Won’t Have.
®
© Copyright Mountain Goat Software
12

7. Count the iterations
APRIL
MAY
SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
1
JUNE
SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
2
3
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
6
7
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
13
14
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
20
21
22
29
30
27
28
4
5
6
1
7
SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
1
2
3
8
9
10
11
12
6
3
4
7
15
16
17
18
19
10
13
14
11
23
24
25
26
20
17
18
21
24
27
25
28
29
30
4
5
31
2
3
5
8
6
9
10
7
11
8
12
9
15
12
16
13
14
17
15
18
16
19
22
19
20
23
21
24
22
25
26
23
26
29
27
30
28
31
29
30
4
1
5
2
© Copyright Mountain Goat Software
®
13
Determine a velocity range
50
Story Points
40
30
20
34
30
30
25
29
29
25
21
10
0
®
Iterations
© Copyright Mountain Goat Software
14

8. Determine what to commit to
6×25
Will have
If you promise this
t
• You probably won’t ge
the contract
ish
• But will probably fin
everything if you do
Might have
If you promise this
• You will probably win
Won’t have
Product
Backlog
the contract
h
• But probably not finis
everything in time
© Copyright Mountain Goat Software
®
15
Balancing risk
High
Expectation Risk
Promise Just
the
Will-Haves
Low
®
Promise All
the
Might-Haves
Low
Delivery Risk
High
© Copyright Mountain Goat Software
16

9. Planning Scenarios
Five
data
A team with historical
Fixed-date plans
Fixed-scope plans
data
A team with no velocity
A team changing size
© Copyright Mountain Goat Software
®
17
Fixed scope planning
Three steps
1. Sum the product backlog
items.
2. Estimate velocity as a range.
3. Use the sum of the backlog
divided by the velocity
range to determine a date
range.
®
© Copyright Mountain Goat Software
18

10. = 120 story points
Story Points
25
20
15
10
5
0
}=15–20
Iterations
© Copyright Mountain Goat Software
®
19
If you promise the short
duration
• You probably get the
contract
• But may not finish
everything in time
120 ÷ 20 =
120 ÷ 15 =
JANUARY
FEBRUARY
SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
MARCH
SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
APRIL
SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
MAY
SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
JUNE
SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
1
2
3
4
5
6
1
2
3
1
2
3
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1
2
3
4
5
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
10
13
14
11
15
12
16
13
14
17
15
18
16
19
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
20
17
18
21
22
19
20
23
24
21
25
22
26
23
28
29
30
31
25
26
27
28
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
29
30
27
28
29
30
31
24
27
25
28
26
29
30
27
28
31
29
30
JANUARY
FEBRUARY
SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
MARCH
SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
APRIL
SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
MAY
SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
1
6
3
4
7
5
8
2
6
9
3
10
7
4
1
5
2
11
8
12
9
JUNE
SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
JULY
SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
AUGUST
SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
1
2
3
4
5
6
1
2
3
1
2
3
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1
2
3
4
5
1
2
3
4
1
5
2
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
6
3
4
7
5
8
6
9
10
7
11
8
12
9
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
10
13
14
11
15
12
16
13
14
17
15
18
16
19
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
20
17
18
21
22
19
20
23
24
21
25
22
26
23
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
28
29
30
31
25
26
27
28
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
29
30
27
28
29
30
31
24
27
25
28
26
29
30
27
28
31
29
30
29
30
31
26
27
28
29
30
31
If you promise the long
duration
1
5
6
7
8
2
9
3
4
10
11
• You probably will not
®
get the contract
• But it should be easy to
finish everything Mountain Goat Software
© Copyright
20

11. Ranges
Notice in both cases we had a range
For a fixed date project, use a scope
range:
“By that date you’ll have all of these features
and some of these.”
For a fixed-scope project, use a date
range:
“It will take us between 6 and 8 iterations to
deliver all of those features.”
© Copyright Mountain Goat Software
®
21
The impending tradeshow
Your company develops tools for managing agile
projects.
You’ve finished version 1.0 (on time, of course).
Now the boss needs a new version for the big
trade show that is 4 iterations away.
•
•
Which features can you “guarantee” will be in
for the trade show?
Which features are likely to be in?
Use the following
user stories,
estimates and
velocities.
®
© Copyright Mountain Goat Software
22

12. Past velocities
Historic Data
cal
Iteration Velocity
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Your estimates
20
14
23
18
25
30
12
22
15
23
© Copyright Mountain Goat Software
®
Product backlog item
23
Estimate
1. As the product owner I want to drag items onto a release
burndown chart and see the impact to the release date.
20
2. As a user at a company with lots of cash, I want your product to
support touch screens so I can put a large one in our team
room.
13
3. As a user I would like performance to be about twice as fast as
now during peak use periods.
20
4. As a team member, I’d like to be able to do online planning
poker estimating right inside the tool.
13
5. As a third party, I would like an SOA interface so that I can
integrate my product with yours.
8
6. As a team member I want RSS support for all changes to tasks
or user stories so that I’m notified.
8
7. As the product owner, I want a new report that shows
differences in the product backlog between different time
periods.
3
8. As a team member I’d like to define templates of tasks that
13
recur for lots of different stories so that I can reuse them
© Copyright Mountain Goat Software
®
24

13. Planning Scenarios
Five
data
A team with historical
Fixed-date plans
Fixed-scope plans
data
A team with no velocity
A team changing size
© Copyright Mountain Goat Software
®
25
Forecast an initial velocity
Get the team together as though there were going
to plan a real iteration (2–4 weeks)
Iteration planning involves
Breaking product backlog items (features) into
tasks
Estimating the hours for each task
Repeating until the iteration feels full
See how many points are represented by the work
they select
Consider planning a second iteration this way
®
© Copyright Mountain Goat Software
26

14. Consider this team
Person Hours/Day Hours / Iteration
Sergey
4–6
40–60
Yuri
4–6
40–60
Carina
2–3
20–30
Total
o
100–150
© Copyright Mountain Goat Software
®
27
Establishing their velocity
Capacity
100–150 hours per iteration
Code…
12
Design …
6
Test …
8
46
Decide …
8
Automate … 12
®
22
Points
As a frequent
flyer …
3
As a visitor …
5
As a frequent
flyer …
Code…
Test …
31
Design …
Test …
8
6
12
5
48
48
5
As a vacation
planner …
…
22
Story
2
…
© Copyright Mountain Goat Software
28

15. Turn the point estimate into a range
If you don’t have historical data
Take a wild guess, perhaps:
+/– 10% for a known team working in a known
domain with known technologies
+/– 50% if all that is unknown
If you have historical data from other
teams
Calculate the relative standard deviation of
those teams
© Copyright Mountain Goat Software
®
29
Using data from other teams
Team A
Iteration Velocity
1
20
2
28
3
24
4
16
5
18
6
23
7
26
8
21
®
Team A
Mean
Standard
Deviation
22
3.8
Relative standard
deviation
3.8 / 22 = 17%
© Copyright Mountain Goat Software
30

16. Adjust velocity
by ±19%
%
Estimated
velocity = 11
119
81%
Will Have
9
multiply by
number of
iterations
Might Have
13
Won’t Have
Product Backlog
®
© Copyright Mountain Goat Software
31
e Planning Scenarios
Fiv
data
A team with historical
Fixed-date plans
Fixed-scope plans
data
A team with no velocity
A team changing size
®
© Copyright Mountain Goat Software
32

17. Track velocity when size changes
Initial
Team
Size
New
Team
Size
6
7
–20%
–4%
+12%
6
7
0%
–6%
+15%
7
5
–12%
–8%
–8%
8
6
–20%
–20%
–16%
7
8
–15%
Iteration Iteration Iteration
+1
+2
+3
Track across
the entire
organization.
© Copyright Mountain Goat Software
®
33
Impact of going from 6–7 people
Initial
Team
Size
New
Team
Size
6
7
–20%
–4%
+12%
6
7
0%
–6%
+15%
7
5
–12%
–8%
–8%
…
…
…
Iteration Iteration Iteration
+1
+2
+3
…
Iteration
…
Average
Velocity Change
1
2
–5%
3+
®
–10%
+13%
© Copyright Mountain Goat Software
34

18. Mike Cohn
mike@mountaingoatsoftware.com
www.mountaingoatsoftware.com
twitter: mikewcohn
(888) 61-AGILE
®
© Copyright Mountain Goat Software
35