- John Carrig, President and COO of ConocoPhillips, presented at the 2009 Credit Suisse Energy Summit in Vail, Colorado on February 5, 2009.
- The global economic crisis and low, volatile commodity prices have created a difficult industry environment. Crude oil demand is expected to decline in 2009 while the cost of replacing oil reserves continues to rise.
- ConocoPhillips aims to maintain a strong financial position by funding its capital program and paying dividends while capturing cost savings. The company will prioritize projects offering the greatest growth and returns.
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2009 Credit Suisse Energy Summit John Carrig President and COO Speech
1. 2009 Credit Suisse Energy Summit
John Carrig President and Chief Operating
Officer
Vail, Colorado
February 5, 2009
2. CAUTIONARY STATEMENT
CAUTIONARY STATEMENT
FOR THE PURPOSES OF THE “SAFE HARBOR” PROVISIONS
OF THE PRIVATE SECURITIES LITIGATION REFORM ACT OF 1995
The following presentation includes forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended and
Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, which are intended to be covered by the safe harbors created thereby. You can
identify our forward-looking statements by words such as “anticipates,” “expects,” “intends,” “plans,” “projects,” “believes,” “estimates,” and similar
expressions. Forward-looking statements relating to ConocoPhillips’ operations are based on management’s expectations, estimates and projections
about ConocoPhillips and the petroleum industry in general on the date these presentations were given. These statements are not guarantees of future
performance and involve certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions that are difficult to predict. Further, certain forward-looking statements are based
upon assumptions as to future events that may not prove to be accurate. Therefore, actual outcomes and results may differ materially from what is
expressed or forecast in such forward-looking statements.
Factors that could cause actual results or events to differ materially include, but are not limited to, crude oil and natural gas prices; refining and
marketing margins; potential failure to achieve, and potential delays in achieving expected reserves or production levels from existing and future oil and
gas development projects due to operating hazards, drilling risks, and the inherent uncertainties in interpreting engineering data relating to underground
accumulations of oil and gas; unsuccessful exploratory drilling activities; lack of exploration success; potential disruption or unexpected technical
difficulties in developing new products and manufacturing processes; potential failure of new products to achieve acceptance in the market; unexpected
cost increases or technical difficulties in constructing or modifying company manufacturing or refining facilities; unexpected difficulties in manufacturing,
transporting or refining synthetic crude oil; international monetary conditions and exchange controls; potential liability for remedial actions under existing
or future environmental regulations; potential liability resulting from pending or future litigation; general domestic and international economic and political
conditions, as well as changes in tax and other laws applicable to ConocoPhillips’ business. Other factors that could cause actual results to differ
materially from those described in the forward-looking statements include other economic, business, competitive and/or regulatory factors affecting
ConocoPhillips’ business generally as set forth in ConocoPhillips’ filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), including our Form 10-K
for the year ending December 31, 2007. ConocoPhillips is under no obligation (and expressly disclaims any such obligation) to update or alter its
forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.
Cautionary Note to U.S. Investors – The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission permits oil and gas companies, in their filings with the SEC, to
disclose only proved reserves that a company has demonstrated by actual production or conclusive formation tests to be economically and legally
producible under existing economic and operating conditions. We may use certain terms in this presentation such as “oil/gas resources,” “Syncrude,”
and/or “Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE) proved reserves” that the SEC’s guidelines strictly prohibit us from including in filings with the SEC. U.S.
investors are urged to consider closely the oil and gas disclosures in our Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2007.
This presentation includes certain non-GAAP financial measures, as indicated. Such non-GAAP measures are intended to supplement, not substitute
for, comparable GAAP measures. Investors are urged to consider closely the GAAP reconciliation tables provided in the presentation Appendix.
1
3. Difficult Industry Environment
Difficult Industry Environment
Global economic crisis
Low and volatile
commodity prices
Uncertain investment
climate
High-cost production
challenged
Energy and climate
legislation
2
5. Global Oil Demand Destruction
Global Oil Demand Destruction
Average Annual Growth / Decline
Million Barrels per Day
4
3
2009
forecast
2
1
0
-1
Possible additional decline
-2
-3
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Source: Oil and Gas Journal through 2007, International Energy Agency for 2008 and 2009, Goldman
Sachs for low forecast in 2009
4
6. Current Oil Reserve Replacement Cost Curve
Current Oil Reserve Replacement Cost Curve
Dollars per Barrel
90
Man- Non-Mandated Biofuels
80 dated
Bio-
70 fuels,
Replacement Cost
shown
60 as
zero
cost
50
High Cost
Conventional,
40
EOR,
Medium Cost Conventional Unconventional,
30 U.S. Stripper
Wells
20
10 Low Cost Middle East
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90
World Oil Supply, 2009, MMB/D
Source: PIRA Energy
5
7. U.S. Natural Gas Supply Challenge
U.S. Natural Gas Supply Challenge
26 Projected U.S. natural gas demand
uction
Alaskan Prod
24 65.8
LNG Imports
Trillion Cubic Feet
22 60.3
Net Pipeline Imports
20 54.8
BCFD
Non-Associated Unconventional
18 Growth 49.3
16 43.8
14 38.4
Existing Production
12 32.9
10 27.4
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025
Source: Wood Mackenzie
6
8. Refined Product Supply/Demand Balance
Refined Product Supply/Demand Balance
Growth, Thousands of Barrels per Day
3,500
Supply Surplus
3,000 Supply Deficit
2,500
Supply Deficit
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
-500
-1,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Refinery CDU Biofuels Demand
Source: International Energy Agency, December 2008 and January 2009 reports
7
9. COP’s Response to Current Environment
COP’s Response to Current Environment
Maintain strong financial position and live
within our means
Fund capital program
Pay dividend
Fund projects that offer greatest growth and
return potential
Prioritize our programs
Operate safely, reliably and in an
environmentally responsible manner
Capture benefits from improving cost
environment
8
10. Financial Strategy
Financial Strategy
Fund attractive capital projects
Competitive distributions
Annual dividend increases
Share repurchases
Maintain optimum capital structure
Target debt / capital of 20-25%
9
11. Capital Program
Capital Program
$ in billions
24
19.9
20
16.3
16 15.2
12.8
11.8 12.5
12
8
4
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Capital
Program
Cash Capex Lukoil Affiliate Loans & EnCana JV Capitalized Interest Origin
2006 Reflects 9 months of BR
10
12. 2009 Capital Program
2009 Capital Program
Segment Composition ($ in billions)
Segment Composition ($ in billions)
E&P - 82% ($10.3)
Production
Exploration
Other- 2% ($0.2)
Other: RM&T- 16% ($2.0)
Emerging Bus - $100mm
Corporate - $150mm
Midstream - $7mm
Total includes loans to affiliates, EnCana JV obligations and capitalized interest
11
13. 2008 Overview
2008 Overview
$16.4 B in Adjusted Earnings
Net Loss
Significant Adjustments
$17 B
2.23 MMBOED Production
Cash From 90% Refining Utilization
Operations
$22.7 B $8.2 B Share Repurchases
15% Dividend Increase
Debt-to-Cap
33% Origin Energy Joint Venture
12
14. Total Company Cash Flow
Total Company Cash Flow
2008
2008
$MM
Debt Increase
Dividends
Asset Sales
& Other* 5,768 Share 2,854
2,532 Repurchases
8,249
Capital
Program
CFOA 19,855
22,658
Sources of Cash Uses of Cash
Total
$30,958
* Includes reduction in cash balance
13
16. E&P per BOE Metrics
E&P per BOE Metrics
E&P Income per BOE E&P Cash Contribution per BOE
$ / BOE
$ / BOE
30.00 40.00
35.00
25.00
30.00
20.00
25.00
15.00 20.00
36.94
34.53
23.74 30.70
22.10 15.00
10.00 18.44
20.60 22.35 22.96
14.79 13.76 10.00 19.86
12.19 15.07
5.00 9.97
7.08 8.10 5.00 11.62
0.00 0.00
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 3Q08 YTD 4Q08 2008 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 3Q08 YTD 4Q08 2008
3Q08 3Q08
Peer Group
Based on total E&P BOE production. All companies Income adjusted to exclude certain non-core earnings
impacts (based solely on publicly available information). Cash Contribution is calculated as Income plus
DD&A. See Tables 1 and 2 of Appendix for additional information.
15
17. R&M per BBL Metrics
R&M per BBL Metrics
R&M Income per BBL R&M Cash Contribution per BBL
$ / BBL $ / BBL
7.00 8.00
6.00 7.00
6.00
5.00
5.00
4.00
4.00
3.00
3.00
4.50 5.16
2.00 3.59 3.85 4.64
3.13 2.00 4.28 3.90
2.39 2.33 2.60 2.40 3.06 3.09 3.34 3.16
1.00
1.26 1.00 1.88
0.00
0.00
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 3Q08 YTD 4Q08 2008
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 3Q08 YTD 4Q08 2008
3Q08
3Q08
Peer Group
Based on total petroleum product sales. All companies Income adjusted to exclude certain non-core
earnings impacts (based solely on publicly available information). Cash Contribution is calculated as
Income plus DD&A. See Tables 1 and 2 of Appendix for additional information.
16
18. Return on Capital Employed
Return on Capital Employed
30%
Peer Group
COP
25%
20%
15%
22%
10%
17% 18% 17%
15% 14% 15%
5% 10%
7%
0%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 3Q08 1Q-3Q 2008 4Q08 2008
Annualized Annualized Annualized
Peer group adjusted to reflect all major combinations on a purchase-accounting basis; see Table 4
of Appendix; COP capital employed adjusted to add back Goodwill impairment at year-end 2008
for comparability to peers on a purchase basis. All companies adjusted to exclude certain non-
core earnings impacts; see Table 1 of Appendix for additional information.
17
23. Peer Capital Employed
Peer Capital Employed
XOM CVX BP TOT**
Equity issued for purchase* 72,795 35,690 49,091 65,055
Less: Equity of companies acquired (19,015) (14,330) (15,682) (20,458)
Excess Capital Employed under 53,780 21,360 33,409 44,597
Purchase Accounting
Peer Group: ExxonMobil, Chevron, BP, TOTAL and Royal Dutch Shell (note: no adjustments for Shell)
* Based on the number of shares issued in the transaction and the average price two days before and two days after
the deals were announced
** Shown in Euros
Table 4
22