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Product Strategy Meetup
2nd November 2017
'Just' theory?
Nir Eyal
Eric
Almquist
Alan
Klement
Bob
Moesta
Donna
Not about the screens.
Not about the features.
• The Big Idea
• The Job
• The Switch
• The Value
• The Journey
• The Story
• The Hook
Slack, Uber, Facebook, Google, even
Microsoft have proved Sharma right.
Success in any given market always comes
down to the same fundamental question,
“Who understands the user better?”
Stack Fallacy
The Big Idea
“Aggregators have a direct relationship with users. This may
be a payment-based relationship, an account-based one, or
simply one based on regular usage.”
#1: Supply Acquisition
“Level 1 Aggregators acquire their supply; their market power
springs from their relationship with users, but is primarily
manifested through superior buying power. That means these
aggregators take longer to build and are more precarious in
the short-term.”
#2: Supply Transaction Costs
“Level 2 Aggregators do not own their supply; however, they
do incur transaction costs in bringing suppliers onto their
platform. Level 2 aggregators typically operate in industries
with significant regulatory concerns that apply to the quality
and safety of suppliers.”
#3: Zero Supply Costs
“Level 3 Aggregators do not own their supply and incur no
supplier acquisition costs (either in terms of attracting
suppliers or on-boarding them).”
Super Aggregators!
#4: Super Aggregators
“Super-Aggregators operate multi-sided markets with at least
three sides — in addition to attracting users and suppliers for
free, also have self-serve advertising models that generate
revenue without corresponding variable costs”
The Job
Software
Software
The Switch
"Startups mostly don't
compete against each other,
they compete against no one
giving a shit.” - Justin Kan
• >80% of people’s time is spent in just 3 apps.
• The top 8 mobile apps are owned by just 2 companies:
Google and Facebook.
• 50% of people in the USA download zero new apps per
month.
“Innovation should demonstrate a relative
advantage over other options, ideally
including the technology currently used
for the task. Better technologies will be
adopted, plain and simple. ” - Everett
Rogers
Prospect Theory
• Outcomes are judged in terms of 'gains' & 'losses.'
• Gains and losses are relative
• "Losses loom larger than gains." (Loss aversion)
Prospect Theory
Endowment Effect
Time
3x
3x
9x
“Think of any night you did not
watch Netflix,” he said. “We
compete with drinking a bottle of
wine. That’s a particularly tough
one.” - Reed Hastings
The Value
Value is
psychological,
amorphous and
complex.
Cost (Supply)
Demand
Product
Cost (Supply)
Demand
Product
Price vs. Value(?)
= 8
= 11
The Journey
“Users are only
ever in three
states — they’ve
never heard about
it; they’ve tried it;
and they use it.
What you’re
managing is state
change.”
I don’t know you. I get you.
I want to customise
you.
I’m considering you.
User Familiarity
Promise of value. Delivery of value. Extension of value.
Demonstration of
value.
Acquisition / Growth
Core Task
Completion
AdministrationOnboarding
Acquisition / Growth
Core Task
Completion
AdministrationOnboarding
Acquisition / Growth
Core Task
Completion
AdministrationOnboarding
Acquisition.
Retention.
Revenue.
Referral.Activation.
User Familiarity
Software
Full Stack
Acquisition.
Retention.
Revenue.
Referral.Activation.
User Familiarity
Software
Full Stack
Acquisition / Growth
Core Task
Completion
AdministrationOnboarding
Software
Full Stack
Software
Full Stack
Promise of value. Delivery of value. Extension of value.
Demonstration of
value.
Aha!!
Software
The Story
The Hook
Nir Eyal
• Videos that autoplay as soon as the previous one ends.
(YouTube, Netflix)
• Notifications that interrupt you with vague messages
like 'Ben just posted something interesting.' (Linkedin,
Facebook)
• Images that load slowly forcing users to focus more
intently. (Instagram)
• Infinitely scrolling screens. (Everyone)
• Focus on progress.
• Understand the forces of change
• Constantly deliver value
• Know your ‘Aha!’ moment
• Remember the story
• Understand triggers and rewards
Thanks.
paul.jackson@castle.co

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Product Strategy | London Meetup, November 2017