JWT examined attitudes and behaviors in the run-up to the 2010 U.S. midterm elections, looking for variations by political affiliation. We conducted a quantitative survey using JWT SONAR, JWT’s proprietary online tool. Data was collected between Oct. 18-25, 2010. 519 Americans aged 18 and older were surveyed, with the data weighted by age, gender and income.
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JWT AnxietyIndex: A Closer Look at the US Midterm Elections (October 2010)
1. ANXIETYINDEX
A CLOSER LOOK AT THE
U.S. MIDTERM ELECTIONS
OCTOBER 2010
2. AGENDA
Background and methodology ........................................................................3
What’s making people anxious today? ........................................................4
The election’s tone and urgency ..................................................................18
2
3. BACKGROUND AND
METHODOLOGY
For the latest installment of AnxietyIndex, JWT examined attitudes and
behaviors in the run-up to the midterm elections, looking for variations by
political affiliation.
Quantitative survey conducted by JWT SONARTM, JWT’s proprietary online
tool.
Data collected between Oct. 18-25, 2010.
519 Americans aged 18+
Data are weighted by age, gender and income.
3
5. While anxiety remains high, an overall
downward trend continues.
Anxiety is returning to pre-recession levels ...
90
Food & fuel prices 80 82 82
begin to spike
• • • • 78 79 76 72 76 79
• • • • • 70
80
70 70 71
70 • • • • Barack Obama wins
60
54 the presidency %
Nervous/
Immediate run-up
to the war in Iraq 50
• Anxious
40
• % Not
Nervous/
46 Anxious
• • • • • •
30
20
30 30 29
• • • • 28 24 30
• • 21 • 22 21 24
20 18 18
10
0
02/03 05/03 02/04 08/07 05/08 08/08 11/08 11/08 12/08 02/09 03/09 09/09 05/10 10/10
(Pre- (Post-
Election) Election)
month/year
Overall, given everything that is going on in the world, the country, and your family’s life,
how nervous or anxious would you say you currently are?
5
6. ... though a lingering group of Americans
remain very anxious.
30
26 Food & fuel prices
begin to spike 25 25
25 • • • 24
• 22 21 22
• • 20
•
20
• 17 19
•
Immediate run-up
15 • 16
•
to the war in Iraq Barack Obama wins
•
15 the presidency
13
11
•
10 •
5 % Very
Nervous/
Anxious
0
02/03 05/03 02/04 08/07 05/08 08/08 11/08 11/08 12/08 02/09 03/09 09/09 05/10 10/10
(Pre- (Post-
Election) Election)
month/year
Overall, given everything that is going on in the world, the country, and your family’s life,
how nervous or anxious would you say you currently are?
6
7. ANXIETYINDEX MAP
SAFETY/SECURITY ECONOMIC
Political Leadership
Threat of State of
Terrorism
FURTHER Economy FURTHER
FROM FROM
“HOME” “HOME”
Potential
Military Cost of
Hostilities Health Care
CLOSER CLOSER
TO TO
Current Cost of
“HOME” Living
“HOME”
Military
Hostilities
Crime Job Security
SAFETY/SECURITY ECONOMIC
7
8. Concern about the economy has
decreased significantly, though credit isn’t
given to the current administration.
Political Leadership
600
Threat of State of
500
Terrorism Economy
400
300 383
198
200
Potential 158
Military 100
Cost of
Hostilities Health Care
170 0 394
301
195
90
130
Current Cost of
Military Living
Hostilities
Crime Job Security
September 2009 October 2010
AnxietyIndex: % who are nervous or anxious/% who are not
8
9. Anxiety around the economy is down
dramatically from the heights of two years ago.
State of the Economy
Food & fuel prices 1011 1011
• •
begin to spike
900
• 900
•
733
Immediate run-up
• 669
614
733
•
to the war in Iraq
Barack Obama wins
the presidency
• •
376
270 270 •
• • 223
• • % Very
Nervous/
213 Anxious
02/03 05/03 02/04 08/07 05/08 08/08 11/08 11/08 12/08 02/09 09/09 05/10 10/10
(Pre- (Post-
Election) Election)
month/year
AnxietyIndex: % who are nervous or anxious/% who are not
Overall, given everything that is going on in the world, the country, and your family’s life,
how nervous or anxious would you say you currently are?
9
10. Anxiety around the cost of living has similarly
dropped dramatically from two years ago.
Cost of Living
733
••
Food & fuel prices 669
begin to spike
525 525
376 • • 488 456
335
• • 376 • 355 •
194
213 • • 300
• • Barack Obama wins
the presidency
•
% Very
Immediate run-up Nervous/
to the war in Iraq
Anxious
02/03 05/03 02/04 08/07 05/08 08/08 11/08 11/08 12/08 02/09 09/09 05/10 10/10
(Pre- (Post-
Election) Election)
month/year
AnxietyIndex: % who are nervous or anxious/% who are not
Overall, given everything that is going on in the world, the country, and your family’s life,
how nervous or anxious would you say you currently are?
10
11. Worries are rising over the price of staple goods
(while substantially off the peak of two years ago).
The War in Iraq
400
Impact of Global Warming The War in Afghanistan
Natural Disasters The Housing Market
200
106 129
101 156
Safety of the Food Supply 98 Gasoline Prices
263
146 0
157
Quality of Products 276
Imported from China Food Prices
265
129
160
The Government’s 331 202
Unemployment
Budget Deficit
Rates
The State of the National Bank Failures
Infrastructure
The Stock Market
September 2009 October 2010
AnxietyIndex: % who are nervous or anxious/% who are not
11
12. And the outlook on most drivers remains pessimistic.
WORSE BETTER
The current political leadership in your country -10
-15
You and your family’s current job security -2
2
The housing market October 2010 -12
8
September 2009 -4
The stock market 6
Bank failures -7
-5
More optimistic
The state of the economy -17
-4
The threat of terrorism More pessimistic -20
-17
The rate of crime in your community -14
-13
Military hostilities around the world -21
-23
Potential military hostilities around the world -21
-24
Unemployment rates -17
-11
The cost of health care in your country -37
-36
The cost of living in your country -36
-33
Gasoline prices -41
-42
Food prices -40
-37
Your government’s budget deficit -36
-47
% who expect it will get “better” minus % who expect it will get “worse” in the next six months
And over the next six months, do you expect that each of the following will get better, stay the same or get worse?
12
13. People continue to report moderate levels of
personal impact from the recession ...
Intensity of Personal Impact from the Recession
October 2010
September 2009
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Haven’t Have
impacted impacted
me at all me a great
deal
No Impact Great Impact
On a scale of 1-10, where “1” means tough economic times haven’t impacted me personally at all, and “10” means tough
economic times have impacted me personally a great deal, how would you rate yourself?
13
14. ... and to most, recovery still seems a ways off.
Economic Outlook: “The economy will get better ...”
60
83
50
41
40
42
30
23
20 11 19
10 9
6
2
0
I never considered It has already It will start It will start It will start I have no idea
the country to started to to get better to get better to get better when it will
be in a recession get better this fall in 2011 in 2012 or get better
(2010) later
%
When, if ever, do you think the economy will start to get better?
14
16. There is a tricky element to predicting this
election, as many Americans have yet to make up
their minds about the Tea Party ...
Total Democrat
70 70
60 60
50 48 50 47
41
40 40
30 29 30
23
20 20
12
10 10
0 0
Support Neither Support Oppose Support Neither Support Oppose
nor Oppose nor Oppose
Independent Republican
70 70
60 60 58
50 50
42
40 35 40 38
30 30
23
20 20
10 10
4
0 0
% Support Neither Support
nor Oppose
Oppose Support Neither Support
nor Oppose
Oppose
How much would you say you support or oppose the Tea Party movement?
16
17. ... though many feel familiar with
the beliefs and goals of the movement.
Total Democrat
70 70
60 60
54 52
50 50
40 34 40
35
30 29 30 27
20 20
20 17 20 17
10 10
0 0
Very Somewhat Not Very Not At All Very Somewhat Not Very Not At All
Familiar Familiar Familiar Familiar Familiar Familiar Familiar Familiar
Independent Republican
70 70
60
61 60 70
50 50
42
40 40 34 36
31
30 30
20 19 20 19
8 11
10 10
0 0
Very Somewhat Not Very Not At All Very Somewhat Not Very Not At All
% Familiar Familiar Familiar Familiar Familiar Familiar Familiar Familiar
How familiar would you say you are with the beliefs and goals of the Tea Party movement?
17
19. Republicans are more closely attuned
to this season’s races ...
Percent who are following this
year’s election more 25%
closely than past elections.
54%
23%
Independents
Would you say, for this year’s election, you are following the contests more closely, less closely or about the same as past
elections?
19
20. ... and more likely to see this election season
as particularly contentious, though high
percentages of all voters feel this way.
Percent who say this
year’s election is more 46%
contentious than past elections.
66%
51%
Independents
And would you say that this year’s election is more contentious, less contentious or about the same as past elections?
20
21. The anger among Republicans is palpable, especially
around taxes and pieces of legislation. Democrats
feel more satisfied with where the country is today.
% saying each item will get better
The laws that are being passed in this country 63
30
The amount I pay in taxes 57
20
The cost of food at the grocery store
33
17
The safety of the food at the grocery store 25
24
The safety of over-the-counter medications at 24
the drug store 17
The quality of cars/trucks/vans 23
16
The safety of cars/trucks/vans
22
20
The safety of prescription drugs at 22 If Republicans win
the drug store 24 (among Republicans)
If Democrats win
The cost of cars/trucks/vans 21 (among Democrats)
13
%
And over the next six months, do you think each of these will get better, get worse or stay the same?
21
22. And Republicans are far more worried about
Democrats maintaining control than Democrats
are about Republicans taking control.
% saying each item will get worse
The laws that are being passed in this country 53
79
The amount I pay in taxes 49
82
The cost of food at the grocery store
45
65
The safety of the food at the grocery store 29
42
The safety of over-the-counter medications at 25
the drug store 37
The quality of cars/trucks/vans 27
39
The safety of cars/trucks/vans
26
39
The safety of prescription drugs at 33 If Republicans win
the drug store 41 (among Democrats)
If Democrats win
The cost of cars/trucks/vans 38 (among Republicans)
49
%
And over the next six months, do you think each of these will get better, get worse or stay the same?
22
23. And this anger turns to anxiety, with outsized
Republican anxiety about the economy and the
current Democratic administration.
Political Leadership
1000
Threat of State of
Terrorism 800 Economy
Political Leadership
600 Political Leadership
1000
1000
Threat of State of
Threat of
Terrorism 800 State of
Terrorism Economy
800
400 600
Economy
600
Political Leadership
Potential Potential
400
400
Cost of State of Cost Care
1000
200
Military Potential Threat of
Military
Military
Hostilities Terrorism
200
200
800 Economy
Cost
of
Health of
Hostilities
Hostilities 0
0
600
Health Care Health Care
0 400
Potential
Military
Current
200
Cost of of
Cost
Current
Hostilities Cost of Care
Health
Living
Military
Military 0 Living
Hostilities
Hostilities
Crime Job Security
Crime Job Security
Current Cost of
Military Living
Hostilities
Current Cost of
Military Crime Living Job Security
Hostilities Democrats
Independents
Republicans
Crime Job Security
AnxietyIndex: % who are nervous or anxious/% who are not
23
24. THANK YOU
Mark Truss Ann M. Mack
Director of Brand Intelligence Director of Trendspotting
JWT Worldwide JWT Worldwide
mark.truss@jwt.com ann.mack@jwt.com
www.AnxietyIndex.com
(c) 2010 J. Walter Thompson Company. All Rights Reserved.