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Murphy’s Law
    Meaning of the statement “The best
    laid plans of mice and men / Often go
1   awry.”

    Murphy’s Law maxim
2

                 Buttered Side Toast
    a   Chances for buttered side lands up                       %
    b   Chances for buttered side lands down                     %
    c   Toasts have random behavior                      T   F
    d   Before hitting the floor, the toast makes a      T   F
        complete revolution
    e   The force of gravity is responsible for toast    T   F
3       landing buttered side down
    f   The laws of physics are not linked to the        T   F
        toast falling down a table
    g   Extrinsic factors affect the landing of the      T   F
        falling toast
    h   People understand the laws of physics but        T   F
        still believe in bad luck

                  Supermarket Lines
    a   How do we compute which line is moving
        faster?
    b   If there are five lines, what are our chances
4       to choose the fastest line?
    c   If there are three lines, what are our chances
        to choose the fastest line?
    d   Simple probability is against you.               T   F
    e   The more lines the better chance to get into     T   F
        the fastest line.
    f   Luck and simple probability are linked           T   F
Murphy’s Law of Gambling
    a   What is a “life history?”


    b   Two examples of life history are:


    c   What’s the “gambler’s fallacy?”


    d   Probability theory applies nicely to gambling.    T   F
5   e   Weather patterns have a life history.             T   F
    f   Flowers’ blooming follow the theory of            T   F
        probability.
    g   Dice have a life history.                         T   F
    h   Gambling has no reliable patterns.                T   F
    i   The possibility of rolling 5 in a dice is about   T   F
        16%.
    j   A single event can be computed                    T   F
        mathematically.
           Summary: Real Explanations

    a   Buttered Toast




    b   Supermarket Lines
6



    c   Gambling with Dice
Murphy’s Law: Exercise Notes

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Murphy's Law

  • 1. Murphy’s Law Meaning of the statement “The best laid plans of mice and men / Often go 1 awry.” Murphy’s Law maxim 2 Buttered Side Toast a Chances for buttered side lands up % b Chances for buttered side lands down % c Toasts have random behavior T F d Before hitting the floor, the toast makes a T F complete revolution e The force of gravity is responsible for toast T F 3 landing buttered side down f The laws of physics are not linked to the T F toast falling down a table g Extrinsic factors affect the landing of the T F falling toast h People understand the laws of physics but T F still believe in bad luck Supermarket Lines a How do we compute which line is moving faster? b If there are five lines, what are our chances 4 to choose the fastest line? c If there are three lines, what are our chances to choose the fastest line? d Simple probability is against you. T F e The more lines the better chance to get into T F the fastest line. f Luck and simple probability are linked T F
  • 2. Murphy’s Law of Gambling a What is a “life history?” b Two examples of life history are: c What’s the “gambler’s fallacy?” d Probability theory applies nicely to gambling. T F 5 e Weather patterns have a life history. T F f Flowers’ blooming follow the theory of T F probability. g Dice have a life history. T F h Gambling has no reliable patterns. T F i The possibility of rolling 5 in a dice is about T F 16%. j A single event can be computed T F mathematically. Summary: Real Explanations a Buttered Toast b Supermarket Lines 6 c Gambling with Dice