Seeking Nirvana - Predictability in a Complex World
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Talk presented at Agile Lean Ireland 2019.
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Seeking Nirvana - Predictability in a Complex World
- 1. 1 www. .xyz ©2018ActineoConsultingLLP @actineo_xyz @jose_casal SEEKING PREDICTABILITY IN A COMPLEX WORLD NIRVANA JOSÉ CASAL @jose_casal
- 2. 2 www. .xyz ©2018ActineoConsultingLLP @actineo_xyz @jose_casal IN YOUR BUSINESS, WHAT WOULD “BETTER” LOOK LIKE?
- 3. 3 www. .xyz ©2018ActineoConsultingLLP @actineo_xyz @jose_casal USUALLY… FASTER CHEAPER MORE DELIVERIES FEWER DEFECTS LESS RISKY
- 4. 4 www. .xyz ©2018ActineoConsultingLLP @actineo_xyz @jose_casal WHAT COMPANIES REALLY WANT IS A MORE PREDICTABLE PROCESS THEY CAN TRUST
- 5. 5@actineo_xyz @jose_casal www. .xyz PREDICTABILITY IS A MEASURE OF HOW ACCURATELY WE CAN ANTICIPATE SOMETHING (SIMON WARDLEY)
- 6. 6@actineo_xyz @jose_casal www. .xyz PREDICTABILITY IS A MEASURE OF HOW ACCURATELY WE CAN ANTICIPATE SOMETHING (SIMON WARDLEY)
- 7. 7@actineo_xyz @jose_casal www. .xyz PREDICTABILITY IS A MEASURE OF HOW ACCURATELY WE CAN ANTICIPATE SOMETHING Photo by Max Baskakov on Unsplash UH-OH!
- 8. 8@actineo_xyz @jose_casal www. .xyz PREDICTABILITY IS A MEASURE OF HOW ACCURATELY WE CAN ANTICIPATE SOMETHING Photo by Pacto Visual on Unsplash OOOOH, LET’S PLAY!
- 9. 9@actineo_xyz @jose_casal www. .xyz AGILE TEAMS HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH BUSINESS AGILITY (KLAUS LEOPOLD)
- 10. 10 www. .xyz ©2018ActineoConsultingLLP @actineo_xyz @jose_casal THERE ARE 3 CORE FLOW METRICS ELAPSED TIME WORK IN PROGRESS THROUGHPUT
- 11. 11@actineo_xyz @jose_casal www. .xyz WORK IN PROGRESS ANALYSIS ACTIVE ANALYSIS DONE DEVELOPMENT ACTIVE DEVELOPMENT DONE IDEAS ELAPSED TIME THROUGHPUT DONETESTING
- 12. 12@actineo_xyz @jose_casal www. .xyz ARRIVAL RATE DELIVERY RATE
- 13. 13@actineo_xyz @jose_casal www. .xyz ELAPSED TIME WORKITEMS WORK IN PROGRESS ELAPSED TIME THROUGHPUT ARRIVAL RATE DELIVERY RATE
- 14. 14@actineo_xyz @jose_casal www. .xyz LITTLE’S LAW AVERAGE THROUGHPUT = AVERAGE WORK IN PROGRESS / AVERAGE ELAPSED TIME (PROF. JOHN LITTLE)
- 15. 15@actineo_xyz @jose_casal www. .xyz LITTLE’S LAW AVERAGE THROUGHPUT = AVERAGE WORK IN PROGRESS / AVERAGE ELAPSED TIME (PROF. JOHN LITTLE)
- 16. 16@actineo_xyz @jose_casal www. .xyz IN COMPLEX ENVIRONMENTS LITTLE’S LAW IS NOT A MATHEMATICAL FORMULA IT CAN ONLY PROVIDE GUIDANCE (DANIEL VACANTI)
- 17. 17@actineo_xyz @jose_casal www. .xyz ELAPSED TIME WORKITEMS WORK IN PROGRESS ELAPSED TIME THROUGHPUT ARRIVAL RATE DELIVERY RATE
- 18. 18@actineo_xyz @jose_casal www. .xyz THREE POSSIBLE CFD PATTERNS CROCODILE MOUTH GOING TO STARVE BALANCED FLOW ARRIVAL RATE > DELIVERY RATE ARRIVAL RATE < DELIVERY RATE ARRIVAL RATE = DELIVERY RATE WIP IS INCREASING ELAPSED TIME IS INCREASING THROUGHPUT IS STABLE WIP IS DECREASING ELAPSED TIME IS DECREASING THROUGHPUT IS STABLE WIP IS STABLE ELAPSED TIME IS STABLE THROUGHPUT IS STABLE
- 19. 19@actineo_xyz @jose_casal www. .xyz IF YOUR PROCESS IS NOT STABLE, IT CANNOT BE PREDICTABLE (DANIEL VACANTI)
- 20. 20 www. .xyz ©2018ActineoConsultingLLP @actineo_xyz @jose_casal SO WHAT ABOUT PREDICTABILITY? TRUST TRANSPARENCY COLLABORATION HAPPY TEAMS SATISFIED CUSTOMERS
- 21. 21@actineo_xyz @jose_casal www. .xyz PICK A CFD A B C WHICH OPTION IS BETTER FOR PREDICTABILITY? WHICH ONE DO YOU HAVE TODAY?
- 22. 22@actineo_xyz @jose_casal www. .xyz 3 STEPS TO NIRVANA THROUGHPUT WORK IN PROGRESS ELAPSED TIME = FOCUS ON ONE OF THESE FLOW METRICS IN EACH STEP
- 23. 23@actineo_xyz @jose_casal www. .xyz YOUR BIGGEST PREDICTABILITY PROBLEM IS USUALLY TOO MUCH WIP (DANIEL VACANTI)
- 24. 24@actineo_xyz @jose_casal www. .xyz STEP 1 WORK IN PROGRESS STEP 1: MAKE THE LINES PARALLEL KEY METRIC: INTERVENE ON: ARRIVAL RATE ENTRY POINT OUTCOMES: SUSTAINABILITY PEOPLE-CENTRIC EXPERIMENTS: 1 OUT / 1 IN REPLENISHMENT CONWIP FOCUS: STABILITY
- 25. 25@actineo_xyz @jose_casal www. .xyz STEP 2 ELAPSED TIME STEP 2: MAKE THE LINES NARROWER KEY METRIC: INTERVENE ON: WORKFLOW PROCESS & POLICIES OUTCOMES: FASTER DELIVERY EFFICIENT PROCESS EXPERIMENTS: LOWER WIP AGING METRICS READINESS CRITERIA WASTE REDUCTION FOCUS: PROCESS IMPROVEMENT
- 26. 26@actineo_xyz @jose_casal www. .xyz STEP 3 THROUGHPUT STEP 3: MAKE THE LINES STEEPER KEY METRIC: INTERVENE ON: TOOLS & TECHNOLOGY CAPACITY OUTCOMES: MORE DELIVERIES CUSTOMER SATISFACTION EXPERIMENTS: PROCESS AUTOMATION TECHNICAL DEBT REDUCTION NEW TECH & TOOLS SCALE UP FOCUS: CAPABILITY IMPROVEMENT
- 27. 27@actineo_xyz @jose_casal www. .xyz AGILE TEAMS HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH BUSINESS AGILITY (KLAUS LEOPOLD)
- 28. 28@actineo_xyz @jose_casal www. .xyz BUSINESS AGILITY NIRVANA THROUGHPUTWORK IN PROGRESS ELAPSED TIME 2a 2b 3 1 BUSINESS AGILITY TAKES A LONG TIME TO EMERGE REMEMBER WHAT PHASE YOU ARE IN & MAINTAIN FOCUS
- 29. 29 www. .xyz ©2018ActineoConsultingLLP @actineo_xyz @jose_casal RECAP AVOID THE CROCS FLOW METRICS ARE YOUR FRIENDS IT IS NOT ABOUT THE TEAMS PREDICTABILITY ENABLES TRUST FOCUS ON THE RIGHT METRIC
- 30. 30 www. .xyz ©2018ActineoConsultingLLP @actineo_xyz @jose_casal REACH YOUR BUSINESS AGILITY NIRVANA
- 31. 31@actineo_xyz @jose_casal www. .xyz improve the system don't blame the people www. .xyz THANKS busy is easy focus is hard www. .xyz www. .xyz kill yourWIPnot yourbusinesswww. .xyz nail it before you scale it www. .xyz stop startingand startfinishingwww. .xyz PICK UP YOUR STICKERS AT OUR BOOTH
- 32. 32@actineo_xyz @jose_casal www. .xyz BIBLIOGRAPHY