1. Systems Thinking
Lessons From The Fifth Discipline Fieldbook by Senge, Kleiker,
Roberts, Ross and Smith
Presentation by
Joanna Beltowska @jbeltowska
Amy Rae @elucidateamy
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2. Oh hai again!
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3. All of these things are systems.
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4. Are you looking at a system or a bunch of stuff?
Can you identify the individual parts?
1
Do the parts affect each other?
2
Do the parts together produce an effect that is
3 different from the effect of each part on its own?
Does the effect persist in a variety of
4 circumstances?
x
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5. Ping pong is a system.
IT HAS IDENTIFIABLE INDIVIDUAL PARTS.
PART 2
PART 1 PART 3
PART 4
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6. Ping pong is a system.
THE PARTS AFFECT EACH OTHER.
LAWS OF PHYSICS
RULES OF THE GAME
LAWS OF PHYSICS
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7. Ping pong is a system.
TOGETHER, THESE PARTS CREATE A UNIQUE EFFECT.
LAWS OF PHYSICS
RULES OF THE GAME
LAWS OF PHYSICS
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8. Ping pong is a system.
THIS EFFECT CAN BE REPLICATED IN MULTIPLE SITUATIONS.
LAWS OF PHYSICS
RULES OF THE GAME
LAWS OF PHYSICS
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X 1, X 2, X 3... 8

9. Finding and analyzing systems is difficult work.
The following pages will introduce systems thinking,
a set of tools and methods to help you along the way.
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10. WARNING:
Systems always surprise us.
Don’t fret!
This way for the three main reasons why.
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11. rs
inke
h
rt
ea o n - linea r
We are lin in a n wo
r l d.
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12. In a nonlinear relationship, the cause does not produce a
proportional effect.
is range represents the optimal amount of fertilizer to apply, and if too much is applied,
the yield might even go down.
Crops Yield
Fertilizer Application
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13. Reality is made up of circles, but we see straight
lines. Herein lies the beginnings of our limitation as
systems thinkers.
Peter Senge
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14. The Linearity Double Dunk
Formal education rewards Language shapes perception.
linear thinking.
Research with young children Western languages are biased
indicates that we have towards a linear world view
latent skills as systems because of their
thinkers that are subject-to-verb
undeveloped, even object structure. This
repressed, by formal structure trains our
education. brains to link together
thoughts in the same way.
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15. In the real world, boundaries don’t exist. There are only
boundaries of thought, perception and social agreement.
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16. BOUNDED RATIONALITY
In decision making, rationality of individuals is limited by
the information they have.
Fishermen are not aware of the total number of fish in the
ocean or how many fish others harvest. This is a typical
example of a dilemma referred to as “The Tragedy of the
Commons” - a situation in which a group of individuals act
rationally in their own self-interest and deplete a shared
limited resource.
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17. E xp li ci t kn ow le dg e
MENTAL MODELS
Individuals are also inhibited by their mental models - the
images, assumptions, and stories which we carry in our
minds of ourselves, other people, institutions, and every
aspect of the world.
Taci t know ledge
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18. Systems fool us by presenting
themselves as a single event.
The stock market crashed in 1929, making
headlines. This single event was overemphasized,
and other, more important, events influencing the
Great Depression were less salient, like the
200,000 factory workers being replaced by
machines and farmland value falling by 40%.
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19. Events accumulate into dynamic patterns of behavior.
e Great Depression begins
Wheat prices per bushel in dollars
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
1900 1910 1920 1930
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20. Long-term behavior provides clues to the underlying
system structure.
System structures are created by the choices people make
consciously or unconsciously over time.
In systems thinking, structure is the pattern of
interrelationships among the key components of the system.
That might include hierarchy and process, but it also
includes attitudes and perceptions, the quality of products,
the ways in which decisions are made, etc.
e winter of 1929 was a so called “long wave” winter.
Long wave theory, a subset of systems thinking, says
that economic crisis come and go in cycles.
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21. Researchers at MIT came up with ways to understand and
categorize different types of systems.
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22. With practice, these tools can help you unpack complex
problems in a flash.
Think of these tools as your diagnostic
repertoire.
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23. Links and Loops
T H E F O UND A T I O N O F SYST E M S M O D E L I NG
A LINK:
Links are arrows that represent influence between elements
in a system. NUMBER OF TIME SPENT
LOLCATS ON THE SITE
Loops are combinations of links that that reveal Cause Eect
interdependencies; In a loop, every element is both the
cause and the effect.
A LOOP:
Example: The more lolcat pictures on
icanhazcheeseburger.com, the more time people spend
there, commenting on lolcat pictures, and becoming inspired
to create more. (Because we all know lolcats are awesomely
hilarious!)
NO. OF TIME SPENT
LOLCATS ON THE SITE
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24. Balancing and Reinforcing Loops
T W O T YPE S O F L O O PS T H A T O CCUR F RE Q UE NT L Y
Balancing loops occur in systems that are self-regulating.
US ARMS
The system has an inherent goal, and when that goal isn’t
met, intense pressure is applied to reach it. (R)
NEED TO BUILD
THREAT TO
US ARMS
SOVIET UNION
Example: Your refrigerator’s goal is to keep food at a chilly
35 degrees. When a half-eaten pizza enters, the refrigerator
decreases the temperature to cool the warm pizza, bringing
THREAT
NEED TO BUILD
the refrigerator back to equilibrium. TO US
SOVIET ARMS
Reinforcing loops occur in systems that steadily grow SOVIET
ARMS
and/or collapse over time.
Example: The Nuclear Arms Race between the US and the NUCLEAR STOCKPILES 1945 - 2005
Soviet Union during the cold war is a typical example of a
Exponential growth
reinforcing loop. The US created the first atomic bomb in 45,000 SOVIET
USA
40,000
1945. The Soviet Union followed in 1949. By the 1950s both 35,000
sides had enough nuclear power to obliterate each other. 30,000
25,000
The system then declined when both stockpiles decreased in 20,000
the 1990s. 15,000
10,000
5,000
Sources: Natural Resources Defense Council (1946-2002 data), 0
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (2003-2006 data) 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005
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25. Balancing and Reinforcing Loops: Templates
A D A PT E D F RO M T H E F I F T H D I SCI PL I NE B Y PE T E R M . S E NGE . US E T H E S E T E M PL A T E S A S A S T A RT I NG PL A CE F O R S YS T E M A NA L YS I S .
REINFORCING LOOP TEMPLATE BALANCING LOOP TEMPLATE
Optional intermediate element (might Target or goal
be a consequence of performance) Actual performance (desired performance, either
(that you measure or known or unknown to you)
Actual performance observe; often a problem
(that you measure or symptom)
observe, which you can see
growing or declining)
Growing action
(R) (what you do, or someone
else does, to generate growth
or decline)
(B)
Optional
Gap (discrepancy between
intermediate
desired and actual
element (might be a performance, either visible to
Optional intermediate element
driver of performance) you as a shortfall, evident as
(might be a driver of performance and/or a
consequence of action) a need, or felt as a pressure)
Corrective action (can be a
quick x or a driver of your
performance)
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26. Causal Loop Diagrams
H E L PI NG YO U T E L L A M O RE RO B UST ST O RY
Causal loop diagrams combine multiple loops and reveal - WEAK OR
more detail about the system. A “plus” indicates that the + UNCERTAIN
PERCEIVED ECONOMIC
elements change in the same direction while a “minus” - SOLVENCY OF BANK CONDITIONS
indicates that the elements change in opposite directions.
-
+
Example: The bank panic during the Great Depression was SOLVENCY
(+) (+) FEAR OF
OF BANK BANK FAILURE
caused by a public fear of bank failure. This caused people to
withdraw their personal savings, reducing bank solvency, +
which in turn drove private withdrawals of funds further in a +
TENDENCY TO
BANK RESERVES WITHDRAW
spiraling, reinforcing, loop. ON HAND PERSONAL SAVINGS
-
Casual loop diagram describing the bank panic during the
Great Depression (adapted from Beyond Training Wheels
by John Sterman).
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27. System Archetypes
A PE RI O D I C T A B L E O F T H E M O ST CO M M O N SYST E M B E H A VI O RS
If we think of each system as a story, system archetypes
are the classic stories that we keep seeing over and over
again. By measuring our systems against these classics, we Problem CURRENT STAFFING Fix
symptom PROFITS CUTS
can quickly identify the dominating behavioral patterns.
For example, “Fixes That Backfire”: A company is struggling
with profitability (the problem symptom) and decides to let
some people go to reduce costs (the fix). Profitability initially
improves, but the loss of experienced employees as well as a
drop in morale impact productivity negatively (the PRODUCTIVITY
unintended consequence). Unintended consequences
PROBLEM SYMPTOM
“Fix” applied
Original threshold of tolerance
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28. Archetypes: Comparison Chart
A D A PT E D F RO M T H E F I F T H D I SCI PL I NE B Y PE T E R M . S E NGE
BALANCING LOOP REINFORCING LOOP “FIXES THAT BACKFIRE”
There is a movement toward a target (without An important variable accelerates up (or down), A problem symptom alternately improves (the
delay), or else oscillation, hovering around a single with exponential growth or collapse. problem variable goes down) and deteriorates
target (with delay). (the problem goes up, worse than before).
“LIMITS TO GROWTH” “SHIFTING THE BURDEN” “TRAGEDY OF THE COMMONS”
There is a growth (sometimes dramatic growth), The reliance of the short-term fix grows stronger, Total activity grows, but the gains from individual
leveling off or falling into decline. while efforts to fundamentally correct the real activities are dropping.
problem grow weaker. The problem symptom
alternately improves and deteriorates.
“ACCIDENTAL ADVERSARIES”
Each side’s performance either declines or stays
level and low, while enmity or competitiveness
increases over time.
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29. Stocks And Flows
A D A PT E D F RO M T H I NK I NG I N SYST E M S B Y D O NE L L A M E A D O W S
Stock and flow diagrams are another way to analyze
systems. Stocks are tangible and measurable, and they
Inow
change over time through the actions of flows. Stocks act as
buffers, delays or shock absorbers in systems.
Example: Imagine you’ve decided to take a bath. You begin Stock
to fill your bathtub with hot water and go read while you’re
waiting for the tub to fill. When you come back, the water is
a bit too hot for your liking. To get the temperature down
quickly, you open up the drain and turn the cold water faucet
on. Your bathtub is now a simple system with one stock (the
water in the tub), one inflow (the cold water) and one
outflow (the water that is leaving through the drain).
WATER IN
BATH TUB
COLD WATER DRAINED WATER
Inow Stock Outow
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30. Systems Analysis Guidelines
T H E SYST E M S T O O L K I T I N A CT I O N
All models are simplifications of the real world. It’s up to
you to decide how much detail to illustrate.
There are no right answers. Mapping out a system will
reveal a set of potential actions you may take. As you
become more a more proficient systems thinker, you’ll begin
to recognize the consequences of different interventions.
Cause and effect will not be closely related in time and
space. Don't look for leverage near the symptoms of your
problem.
Good results in a complex system depend on bringing in as
many perspectives as possible. Consider who else you can
bring in to make your system model more informed.
Use your intuition when you work with archetypes. It's not
critical that you pick the right archetype - as long as it rings
true with your story, it's good enough as a starting point.
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31. A good systems thinker avoids traps by looking for multiple
levels operating simultaneously.
LEVERAGE FOR LASTING CHANGE
MENTAL MODELS
SYSTEMS
PATTERNS OF BEHAVIOR
EVENTS
ADAPTED FROM THE FIFTH DISCIPLINE FIELDBOOK BY PETER M. SENGE
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32. Good Systems Thinkers Make Good Strategists
A ST O RY O F H O W ST RA T E GY D E F E A T E D 1: 2 5 O D D S
On October 26, 1597, the Korean admiral Yi Sun-sin
famously defeated the Japanese fleet of 333 units with only
Admiral Yi: a badass
13 ships at his disposal.
systems thinker.
Yi strategically chose the Myeongnyang Strait as the arena
for his last stand with the Japanese based on its strong
currents, narrowness, rough tides and surrounding shadowy
hillsides. By reading the environment as a system, admiral Yi
used it to his advantage.
No other naval battle involving fleets of this size, has
resulted in a victory for such a proportionately small force,
also making it one of the greatest military achievements in
world history.
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33. Cancer (?)
The challenges society faces are growing.
Measles (1963)
Smallpox (1796)
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34. In order to meet those challenges, we need to explore new
ways of thinking. Systems thinking is the cornerstone of
how adaptive organizations think about their world.
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35. Designing a Systems Workshop
PUT T I NG SYST EMS T H I NK I NG I NT O PRA CT I CE
Tackling a huge problem? Systems analysis will help
elucidate multiple sides of the issue and identify areas of
opportunity. Workshops or brainstorms are great forums
for this type of analysis. Below is a (very) general overview
of a good workshop:
Study up: Learn your links, loops and archetypes. For
practice, sketch out systems diagrams of popular problems,
like Global Warming or Poverty.
Event Prep: Invite stakeholders from all levels of the
organization; Unique perspectives will make the analysis
more robust. Choose a room with a white board and bring
your markers!
Facilitation: In general, spend 1/4 of the time introducing
the concept and creating a safe space for open discussion.
Spend 1/2 of the time analyzing the problem on the white Darth suggests you use the “Five Whys”
to help the group discover deeper
board with the Systems Toolkit, and spend the remaining 1/4
interactions between elements.
looking for possible interventions in your diagram.
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36. “It’s like the old expression, ‘You are what you eat’.
If you start thinking differently, you see things differently.
And all your actions start to change.”
- Pat Walls, FedEx
Are you ready to switch to a loops-based diet?
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37. Special thanks to our mentors and friends at

38. Systems Thinking
Lessons From The Fifth Discipline Fieldbook by Senge, Kleiker,
Roberts, Ross and Smith
Presentation by
Joanna Beltowska @jbeltowska
Amy Rae @elucidateamy
©2 011 JOAN N A B ELTO WSK A AN D AMY RAE.