LNG reshaping the global gas market
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IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol's keynote speech to the LNG Producer-Consumer Conference in Tokyo, 18 October 2017.
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LNG reshaping the global gas market
- 1. © OECD/IEA 2017 LNG reshaping the global gas market Dr. Fatih BIROL LNG Producer-Consumer Conference Tokyo – 18 October 2017 IEA
- 2. © OECD/IEA 2017 US unconventional gas revolution has far-reaching consequences Since 2009, US shale has added some 180 Bcm, which is greater than Russia’s exports to Europe in 2016; The US is forecast to account for 40% of the increase in global production to 2022 Changes in gas production, 2016-2022 - 40 0 40 80 120 160 Europe Canada Mexico Australia Russia China Middle East United States Bcm
- 3. © OECD/IEA 2017 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 bcm Others Russia United States Australia LNG markets are reshaping Around 140 bcm of LNG export capacity is under construction, with 75% of the total in Australia and the United States Annual LNG capacity additions, 2016 – 2022
- 4. © OECD/IEA 2017 LNG trade flexibility keeps on improving Trends from new signed contracts – more destination flexible and shorter – show proof of increasing LNG trade flexibility 0 5 10 15 Signed in 2016 Signed in 2015 Signed before 2014 Contract length (years) 45% 50% 55% 60% Signed in 2016 Signed in 2015 Signed before 2014 Share of fixed destination (%) Recent evolution in LNG contracts
- 5. © OECD/IEA 2017 Demand in developing countries reshaping the LNG market China, India and other developing countries will import more than 50% of all LNG by 2022; The number of LNG importing countries has risen from 5 in 2005 to 39 in 2016 and is set to reach 48 by 2022 LNG import volumes , 2012 - 2022 (bcm) 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 bcm Other developing countries India China Developed countries
- 6. © OECD/IEA 2017 Key messages A second gas revolution is underway, driven by LNG In spite of overall well supplied markets, events show that global natural gas security remains a live issue and cannot be taken for granted LNG contract flexibility keeps improving towards more liquid markets LNG demand is diversifying, yet growing dependence from a growing number of importing countries implies an evolving landscape for security of supply The IEA has a mandate to contribute to enhancing global gas security by improving transparency, encouraging flexibility, and supporting greater resilience
Hinweis der Redaktion
- I would like to thank the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry and Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre for hosting this conference and for their invitation. The LNG Producer-Consumer conference has provided since its first edition in 2012 some unique opportunity for dialogue between LNG stakeholders, and over these last six years the LNG business has gone through fundamental changes, and it is still ongoing and future challenges are still ahead. The IEA’s objective is to provide all energy stakeholders with a clear assessment of this evolving energy market, and of the future role of gas over the next few years as well as the longer term. We also received two years ago a mandate from our member countries on natural gas security – our Global Gas Security Review 2017 report will be launched today.
- US remains the largest gas producer in the world at 890 bcm by 2022. US growth of 140 bcm, of which 80 bcm goes to LNG to be exported, 40 bcm to meet demand growth, and the remainder as pipeline exports (or substitutes for Canadian imports). Australian production growth (40 bcm) ends up as LNG. European supply is gradually diminishing over the period. Chinese production ramps up by about 60 bcm over the period nearly reaching 200 bcm by 2022. Middle East production increase is mainly for consumption within the region. Russian production increase is mainly for pipeline export (although some Yamal LNG also enters the market).
- The 2009-2011 wave of liquefaction capacity additions (around 100 bcm) led by Qatar turned out to be very timely – with the increase in Japanese demand following the earthquake. Today we have already a well supplied market with another wave of liquefaction capacity additions out to 2020. Throughout the period that’s 15 projects with 140 bcm under construction. (Note: another 40 bcm has come into service in early 2017 and/or is ramping up to full capacity). 2022 capacity is 650 bcm compared to 450 bcm in 2016, but demand is increasing by only 110 bcm to 460 bcm, hence the glut continues through the end of the forecast period. With all the construction in the US and in Australia, we expect that by 2022 there will now be three giant LNG exporters of similar size, Qatar, US, and Australia with more than 100 bcm liquefaction capacity. Our estimate is that Qatar (100 bcm) will be producing more than Australia (90) or the US (80).
- This year’s report followed up on this analysis and examined contracts signed in 2016. The observed trend is still valid for 2016, with growing share of flexible destination, shorter lengths and quantities for recently signed contracts – in spite of a reduction in the number of contracts signed (18 SPAs in 2016 against 33 in 2015) and mainly sourced from portfolio players.
- Growth in LNG demand is coming from developing countries. By 2022, developing countries import more than half of global LNG. Their demand is driven by economic growth and a desire to reduce air pollution. LNG has become more easily available thanks to recent market balance and the new technologies like floating storage regasification units (FSRU). China and India are the main driver and account for more than half of the LNG import increase in developing countries. LNG imports have already become an important source for China: In 2016, China imported 36 bcm, 18% of the total supply portfolio, which made the country the 3rd largest importer of LNG after Japan and South Korea. China is expected to more than double its LNG imports to 77 bcm by 2022, making it the second largest LNG importer. LNG import of India will increase from 25 bcm in 2016 to almost twice (just below 50 bcm) in 2022. India’s import will increase to the level of Korea, or slightly higher, bringing it to be the third largest LNG importer. “Other developing countries” are also increasing their presence in the global LNG market. The list of LNG consuming countries has increased to 39 this year from just 15 in 2005, with the newcomers including Pakistan, Thailand and Jordan. This list will grow longer in the next five years as many countries are ready to benefit from low LNG prices. These buyers are a lot more price sensitive than traditional buyers like big utilities in Japan and Korea. So, the key question is whether this new market environment can work to secure investor confidence on the supply side. LNG demand in the developed countries has decreased and will continue to decline throughout the forecast period. Japan has been the largest importer of LNG, and increased LNG imports further in recent years, but its demand will decline with higher nuclear power production. In Korea, the new government’s announced policies to reduce the role for nuclear and coal-fired power plants and this may lead to more gas use and LNG imports in Korea.
- Towards a second gas revolution : global LNG supply capacity is growing rapidly, from a current close to 500 bcm mark to 650 bcm in 2022, mainly led by the United States and Australia. The list of LNG importers moved from 15 countries in 2005 to 39 last year. Taking advantage of low prices, this list is growing (48 in 2022) and gas markets around the world will be more interconnected. Recent events : overall natural gas abundance does not grant securing appropriate and timely supply when needed Improving flex : LNG flexibility follows a growing trend, which is a prominent feature to improve market liquidity and develop adequate market conditions to support security of supply ; share of fixed destination contracts, average duration and average quantities are all decreasing IEA on security of supply : second edition of annual “Global Gas Security Review” to be launched today (October 18)