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© OECD/IEA 2018
Global energy prospects and their
implications for Indonesia
Jakarta, 16 July 2018
IEA
Dr. Fatih Birol, Ex...
© OECD/IEA 2018
Old ways of understanding the world of energy are losing value as shifts occur in demand and supply;
South...
© OECD/IEA 2018
Global oil demand remains robust
Global oil demand is set to rise by 1.4 mb/d in 2019, with Southeast Asia...
© OECD/IEA 2018
Higher oil prices unleash second wave of US supply
Supply growth from the United States alone will cover 8...
© OECD/IEA 2018
Prices & reforms have cut the global subsidy bill
Estimated value of global fossil-fuel consumption subsid...
© OECD/IEA 2018
The global gas supply outlook
The US accounts for almost 75% of growth in global LNG exports to 2023; Sout...
© OECD/IEA 2018
Global coal trade: age of rapid expansion is over but levels remain robust
Global coal trade remains robus...
© OECD/IEA 2018
Southeast Asian electricity generation is set to more than double by 2040, requiring additions greater
tha...
© OECD/IEA 2018
Air conditioning is driving electricity demand higher
Air conditioners will represent 35% of the growth in...
© OECD/IEA 2018
Technology progress and competition have driven down prices to record-low levels in countries with
good re...
© OECD/IEA 2018
Global energy – Implications for Indonesia
• Higher oil prices are hurting consumers & putting pressure on...
© OECD/IEA 2018
www.iea.org
IEA
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Global energy prospects and their implications for Indonesia

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Presentation given by Dr. Fatih Birol in Jakarta on 16 July, 2018.

Global energy prospects and their implications for Indonesia

  1. 1. © OECD/IEA 2018 Global energy prospects and their implications for Indonesia Jakarta, 16 July 2018 IEA Dr. Fatih Birol, Executive Director, IEA
  2. 2. © OECD/IEA 2018 Old ways of understanding the world of energy are losing value as shifts occur in demand and supply; Southeast Asia, with China and India, is moving to the centre of the global energy demand picture Southeast Asia becoming pivotal to the global energy landscape Change in energy demand, 2016-40 (Mtoe) India 1 005 420 Southeast Asia China 790 United States -30 Japan -50 Europe -200 270Central and South America 485 Africa 135 Eurasia 480 Middle East
  3. 3. © OECD/IEA 2018 Global oil demand remains robust Global oil demand is set to rise by 1.4 mb/d in 2019, with Southeast Asia, China and India making up 60% of the increase; Southeast Asia is becoming increasingly dependent on oil imports, making energy security a pressing concern 0 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.6 2 2005-2014 mb/d 2016 2017 2018 20192015
  4. 4. © OECD/IEA 2018 Higher oil prices unleash second wave of US supply Supply growth from the United States alone will cover 80% of the world’s demand growth to 2023, with Canada, Brazil and Norway – all members of the IEA family – also growing strongly Changes in global oil supply capacity 2017-2023 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 US Brazil Canada Iraq Iran Norway Colombia Indonesia China Mexico Angola Venezuela mb/d
  5. 5. © OECD/IEA 2018 Prices & reforms have cut the global subsidy bill Estimated value of global fossil-fuel consumption subsidies Subsidy reforms have made global oil demand more price-sensitive, but the recent rise in prices mean governments face growing pressure to reinstall subsidies 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Billiondollars,2017 Electricity Coal Gas Oil ASEAN total subsidies (right axis)
  6. 6. © OECD/IEA 2018 The global gas supply outlook The US accounts for almost 75% of growth in global LNG exports to 2023; Southeast Asia will need to increasingly import LNG from Qatar, Australia & the US to meet growing demand Natural gas production growth for selected countries and regions, 2017-23 6 -50 0 50 100 150 200 United States Middle East China Australia Russia Egypt Europe bcm Domestic market Export market
  7. 7. © OECD/IEA 2018 Global coal trade: age of rapid expansion is over but levels remain robust Global coal trade remains robust to 2040, as a drop in imports into China and mature economies is offset by higher imports in South and Southeast Asia Global steam coal exports 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 2000 2005 2010 2016 2025 2030 2035 2040 Mtce Indonesia Australia Rest of world
  8. 8. © OECD/IEA 2018 Southeast Asian electricity generation is set to more than double by 2040, requiring additions greater than Japan’s current power capacity Electricity generation by selected regions The future is electrifying Indonesia 500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500 Japan TWh 2016 Growth to 2040 Southeast Asia Korea
  9. 9. © OECD/IEA 2018 Air conditioning is driving electricity demand higher Air conditioners will represent 35% of the growth in ASEAN electricity demand to 2050; In Indonesia, 10% of households have air conditioners compared to over 90% in Japan and the US Share of final electricity demand growth to 2050 in ASEAN countries Cooling 35% Lighting and appliances 21% Other buildings 11% Industry 26% Other 7%
  10. 10. © OECD/IEA 2018 Technology progress and competition have driven down prices to record-low levels in countries with good renewable resources, transparent policies and well-designed auction schemes Announced wind and solar PV average auction prices by commissioning date Wind and solar PV costs falling rapidly 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 USD/MWh Onshore wind average auction price Solar PV average auction price
  11. 11. © OECD/IEA 2018 Global energy – Implications for Indonesia • Higher oil prices are hurting consumers & putting pressure on governments to reintroduce subsidies; crucial that any subsidies are carefully targeted • The emergence of a competitive, global gas market with the rise of LNG provides opportunities for Indonesia on both the demand & supply sides • Energy investment is a critical issue for Indonesia – particularly in the power sector to respond to rapid demand growth & sustainability challenges • Renewables & energy efficiency can cost effectively tackle air pollution and fossil fuel imports, but need best-practice policy to lock-in cost reductions & aid deployment • The IEA stands ready to support Indonesia navigate its energy transition, with data, analysis, an “all fuels and technologies “ approach & real-world solutions
  12. 12. © OECD/IEA 2018 www.iea.org IEA
  • AdhityaniDhitriPutri

    Aug. 19, 2018
  • priandoyo

    Jul. 18, 2018

Presentation given by Dr. Fatih Birol in Jakarta on 16 July, 2018.

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