Global energy markets: today & tomorrow
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Dr. Fatih Birol, the Executive Director of the International Energy Agency, gave a talk at Imperial College London on 20 March 2018 to discus how new technologies - including electrification & digitalisation – create opportunities, but also risks & uncertainty.
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Global energy markets: today & tomorrow
- 1. © OECD/IEA 2018 Global energy markets: today and tomorrow Dr. Fatih Birol Executive Director, International Energy Agency IEA Imperial College London, 20 March 2018
- 2. © OECD/IEA 2018 Tipping the energy world off its axis • Four large-scale upheavals in global energy are underway: - The United States is turning into the undisputed global leader for oil & gas - Solar PV is on track to be the cheapest source of new electricity in many countries - China’s new drive to “make the skies blue again” is recasting its role in energy - The future is electrifying, spurred by cooling, electric vehicles & digitalisation • There are many possible pathways ahead & many potential pitfalls if governments or industry misread the signs of change
- 3. © OECD/IEA 2018 Old ways of understanding the world of energy are losing value as countries change roles: the Middle East is fast becoming a major energy consumer & the United States a major exporter India takes the lead, as China energy growth slows Change in energy demand, 2016-40 (Mtoe) India 1 005 420 Southeast Asia China 790 United States -30 Japan -50 Europe -200 270Central and South America 485 Africa 135 Eurasia 480 Middle East
- 4. © OECD/IEA 2018 Booming non-OPEC supply growth reshapes world oil market… …more than covers demand growth for next three years. By 2023, non-OPEC supply grows by 5.2 mb/d, with US, Canada and Norway key sources of additional supplies Changes in global oil supply capacity, 2017-2023 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 US Brazil Canada Iraq Iran Norway Colombia Indonesia China Mexico Angola Venezuela mb/d
- 5. © OECD/IEA 2018 China net crude oil imports double the US in 2023 0 2 4 6 8 10 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 mb/d US China India Indian imports, too, surpass the US in 2023 as shale growth reduces US import dependence Net crude oil imports
- 6. © OECD/IEA 2018 US becomes undisputed leader of oil & gas production The US is already switching to become a net exporter of gas and becomes a net exporter of oil in the 2020s, helped also by the demand-side impact of fuel efficiency and fuel switching 25 30 35 5 10 15 20 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 mboe/d Shale oil Shale gas Other unconventionals Conventional oil & gas Oil and gas production in the United States
- 7. © OECD/IEA 2018 Strong outlook as LNG ushers in a new global gas order Growing gas import requirements in developing Asia, Japan and Korea are largely met by LNG, with exports from the US and Australia accelerating a shift to a flexible, liquid global market 706 bcm in 2016 Gas exportersGas importers 39% shipped by LNG 1 230 bcm in 2040 59% shipped by LNG Australia Russia & Caspian Middle East Other Africa US & Canada Australia Russia & Caspian Middle East Other AfricaUS & Canada Asia 37% Europe 52% Other Asia 60% Europe 35% Other
- 8. © OECD/IEA 2018 The cost of wind and solar PV have fallen sharply, with further reductions expected; cost-optimal integration requires interconnections, flexible generation, storage and demand response Wind and solar PV average costs Wind and solar PV costs being driven down by competition 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 USD 2016/MWh Offshore wind Solar PV Onshore wind
- 9. © OECD/IEA 2018 A new leader emerging on nuclear Without additional lifetime extensions, the largest nuclear fleets face significant declines, while China is soon set to overtake the United States as the global leader Nuclear power generation capacity 40 80 120 2010 2020 2030 2040 GW United States China France
- 10. © OECD/IEA 2018 The future is electrifying India adds the equivalent of today’s European Union to its electricity generation by 2040, while China adds the equivalent of today’s United States Electricity generation by selected region Middle East 2 000 4 000 6 000 8 000 10 000 Africa Southeast Asia European Union India United States China TWh 2016 Growth to 2040 Sources of global electricity demand growth Industrial motors Cooling Large appliances Connected & small appliances Electric vehicles Other Japan
- 11. © OECD/IEA 2018 Oil & gas dependent economies set to face structural challenges The shale revolution is creating a near-term squeeze on market opportunities for some of the world’s main oil & gas exporters in the Middle East, Russia and beyond Shale is also putting downward pressure on oil & gas prices, redoubling the impacts on hydrocarbon-dependent economies Looking further ahead, the rise of advanced energy technologies is spurring uncertainty over future oil & gas demand trends Unprecedented set of short- and long-term challenges facing some major resource-holders, posing questions about their economic sustainability IEA to analyse the vulnerabilities, strategic responses and possible implications for energy security of today’s price and policy environment in major resource-holders
- 12. © OECD/IEA 2018 Progress in electricity access is seen in all world regions, but sub-Saharan Africa lags behind Million people 200 400 600 2000 2005 2010 2016 Many countries, led by India, are on track to achieving full electrification by 2030, but – despite recent progress – efforts in sub-Saharan Africa need to redouble Sub-Saharan Africa India Other Asia 2020 2025 2030 India Other Asia Sub-Saharan Africa Population without electricity access Million 200 400 600 2000 2005 2010 2016 Sub-Saharan Africa India Other Asia 2020 2025 2030
- 13. © OECD/IEA 2018 A new strategy for energy & sustainable development The Sustainable Development Scenario reduces CO2 emissions in line with the objectives of the Paris Agreement, while also tackling air pollution and achieving universal energy access Sustainable Development Scenario New Policies Scenario Sustainable Development Scenario Global CO2 emissions by scenario 10 20 30 40 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040Gt
- 14. © OECD/IEA 2018 Stronger policies for a more sustainable world Only 15% additional investment is required to 2040 to achieve the Sustainable Development Scenario, with two-thirds of energy supply investment going to electricity generation & networks The Sustainable Development Scenario in 2040 580bcm additional gas demand 2times more efficient than today 3250GW global solar PV capacity 875million electric vehicles
- 15. © OECD/IEA 2018 Conclusions The oil & gas boom in the United States is shaking up the established order, with major implications for markets, trade flows, investment & energy security The versatility of natural gas means that it is well placed to grow, but it cannot afford price spikes or uncertainty over methane leaks China continues to shape global trends, but in new ways as its “energy revolution” drives cost reductions for a wide range of clean energy technologies Our strategy for sustainable energy shows that concerted action to address climate change is fully compatible with global goals on universal access & air quality Electrification & digitalisation creates new opportunities in the global energy system, but also risks, such as cybersecurity, that policy makers have to address
- 16. © OECD/IEA 2018 Modernising the IEA: three pillars Making the IEA a truly global agency Mexico became 30th member country in February 2018 Since 2015, Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Morocco, Singapore and Thailand have all become Associate members Extended IEA family now accounts for over 70% of the world’s total energy consumption, up from less than 40% two years ago Strengthening and broadening the commitment to energy security Enhancing the focus on energy efficiency and clean energy technologies
Hinweis der Redaktion
- This year’s World Energy Outlook covers many themes, fuels and technologies, as always, but in essence it is the story of four major upheavals in global energy: In the United States the shale revolution is not yet done – and it is turning the US into the undisputed global leader for oil & gas production. In our outlook, for example, US oil output growth is equivalent to 80% of the growth in global demand to 2025. The second upheaval is on cost reductions for clean energy technologies. Since 2010, costs for new solar PV have come down by 70% and this technology is on track to be the cheapest source of new generation in many countries e.g. in India by 2025 and China by 2030. Costs of new wind power are down by 25% over the same period, with recent cost trends for offshore wind particularly impressive. Battery costs down by 40%. This is upending traditional assumptions about how we can meet our future energy needs. We are all used to the idea that China drives many global trends, but typically we’re talking about markets for coal and oil. However, China’s energy future will not be the same as its energy past. As President Xi has announced, China is entering a new era in its development, and one key aspect of this is the ‘drive to make China’s skies blue again’ and tackle the issue of air pollution. China already the global leader in many clean energy technologies – for example, accounting for half of new global deployment of solar PV in 2016 (no sign of a let-up in 2017). It is also setting the pace in gas markets: LNG imports to China so far in 2017 are up 40% year-on-year. Last but not least – electrification. Electricity is becoming an ever-larger part of our energy use and our energy-related spending. The rising middle classes in warmer climates, especially in Asia, are installing air conditioners in record numbers.. electric vehicles are making a move in the transport sector; we are all surrounded by an increasing number of digital and connected devices in our daily lives. In our Outlook, electricity demand increases at twice the speed of overall energy demand. [CLICK] These changes bring reasons for optimism – they brighten the perspective for more affordable and sustainable energy, as well as access to electricity for the 1.1 billion that remain without. But there are some new risks too – need to constantly reappraise and reinforce our approaches to energy security, for example to take into account the changes on electricity. And, as we shall see, we’re still not on track to meet global objectives on climate, on access and on air quality. There are still multiple uncertainties over how these upheavals will play out and it’s never been more important to understand the underlying dynamics of a fast-changing energy world – those who misread the signs risk being caught out or left behind. As ever, there is no single story about the future of global energy – that is why, in the World Energy Outlook, we have multiple scenarios and case studies; in first part of this presentation, focus on our main scenario, the New Policies Scenario, which show where today’s policies and policy intentions are leading the energy sector..
- However, during our forecast period production from the non-OPEC countries booms, led by the United States. Gains from the United States alone will cover 80% of the world’s demand growth, with Canada, Brazil and Norway – all members of the IEA family – able to cover the rest through 2020. Total non-OPEC supply growth is 5.2 mb/d. The OPEC countries manage only to increase their capacity by 1.2 mb/d. Within the OPEC group, the largest expansion is seen in Iraq. Our forecast assumes that production from the Neutral Zone resumes. However there are several countries within the group where product is actually expected to decline. We have already mentioned Venezuela, but there is also expected to be a big decline in Angola. There remain long term concerns about political stability in Libya and Nigeria.
- Another impact of rising US production is the fact that US net imports have fallen dramatically in the last few years. At the same, China’s net imports have ramped up considerably, surpassing the US last year. <<CLICK>> Thanks to the second wave of the shale, US net imports will fall further, to only half of their historical record. <<CLICK>> At the same time, Chinese net imports will grow. By 2023, China will reach the historical record of the US. <<CLICK>> In fact, India’s import volumes in 2023 will be higher than the US. Our forecast shows that after 2020 there will be no net crude exporting country in Asia. Middle East exporters will only be able to provide 1 mb/d more to Asian importers. So, most of the 3.6 mb/d of incremental import requirements will have to come from the Atlantic Basin, taking longer time. This raises important issues in energy security for the Asian economies. The chokepoints, such as the Suez canal and, especially Malacca Straights will become even more vital.
- Another impact of rising US production is the fact that US net imports have fallen dramatically in the last few years. At the same, China’s net imports have ramped up considerably, surpassing the US last year. <<CLICK>> Thanks to the second wave of the shale, US net imports will fall further, to only half of their historical record. <<CLICK>> At the same time, Chinese net imports will grow. By 2023, China will reach the historical record of the US. <<CLICK>> In fact, India’s import volumes in 2023 will be higher than the US. Our forecast shows that after 2020 there will be no net crude exporting country in Asia. Middle East exporters will only be able to provide 1 mb/d more to Asian importers. So, most of the 3.6 mb/d of incremental import requirements will have to come from the Atlantic Basin, taking longer time. This raises important issues in energy security for the Asian economies. The chokepoints, such as the Suez canal and, especially Malacca Straights will become even more vital.
- Another impact of rising US production is the fact that US net imports have fallen dramatically in the last few years. At the same, China’s net imports have ramped up considerably, surpassing the US last year. <<CLICK>> Thanks to the second wave of the shale, US net imports will fall further, to only half of their historical record. <<CLICK>> At the same time, Chinese net imports will grow. By 2023, China will reach the historical record of the US. <<CLICK>> In fact, India’s import volumes in 2023 will be higher than the US. Our forecast shows that after 2020 there will be no net crude exporting country in Asia. Middle East exporters will only be able to provide 1 mb/d more to Asian importers. So, most of the 3.6 mb/d of incremental import requirements will have to come from the Atlantic Basin, taking longer time. This raises important issues in energy security for the Asian economies. The chokepoints, such as the Suez canal and, especially Malacca Straights will become even more vital.
- There is more room for Japan to align current support to renewables to the falling cost of technologies. The recent introduction of the auction system for utility-scale solar PV is a good move. However, just focusing on the cost of technologies (i.e. LCOE) is not sufficient. Policy challenge would be to minimise total system cost, while ensuring flexibility and interconnections. Thermal power plants as a flexibility source is needed for the moment, while electricity storage and demand response can be explored as a future source of flexibility. Japan’s geography is complex and its internal interconnections are limited. In addition to prioritizing internal infrastructure development, the introduction of a location signal to steer renenewable investment could be considered. The challenge is all the more imperative, as Japan cannot rely on international connections to source flexibility, as in Europe.
- In our central scenario, global nuclear capacity grows by over 100 GW, to 520 GW by 2040. Nuclear power is still the largest single source of low carbon generation in both Europe and the United States. Losing aging nuclear capacity is a major challenge for both decarbonisation and energy security. This decade 20 billion USD was invested every year into renewable facilities that simply replace decomissioned nuclear plants without any impact on CO2 emissions. Given the risk profile and capital needs of nuclear a strong government involvement is indispensable. China’s successful nuclear program is based on two pillars: a nuclear industry that has the project management capability for efficient construction and a strong policy support with appropriate financing.
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