IEA-Energy Technology Model Nathalie TRUDEAU, International Energy Agency, IEA

1. IEA Energy Technology Model
Energy Technology Perspectives 2010
© OECD/IEA - 2011

2. Energy Technology
Perspectives project
ENERGY  IEA flagship project on energy
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES technology, complementing the
2010
Scenarios &
WEO
 Provides impartial advice to
Strategies
to 2050
decision makers on energy
technology policy
 Main output is Energy Technology
Perspectives (ETP) publication –
released every two years
 Input to high-level inter-
governmental discussions
© OECD/IEA - 2011

3. ETP Scenarios
 Baseline scenario:
ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
 Following the World Energy Outlook 2009
PERSPECTIVES Reference Scenario
2010
 World GDP grows by factor 2.75 between
Scenarios &
Strategies 2007 and 2050
to 2050
 Energy prices: Oil USD 120/bbl in 2050, Coal
USD 115/tonne
 BLUE scenario:
 50% reduction of energy related CO2
emissions by 2050 compared to 2005
 Options with marginal reductions of up to USD
175/t CO2 are needed
 Due to uncertainties number of variants being
considered
© OECD/IEA - 2011

4. Key messages from scenarios
 The Baseline scenario is unsustainable
ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
– environmentally, economically,
PERSPECTIVES socially
2010
 Widespread deployment of low carbon
Scenarios &
Strategies
technologies (costs < USD 175/tCO2)
to 2050 needed to halve CO2 emissions by 2050
 Improved energy efficiency and
decarbonising electricity are key
 New technologies needed after 2030
 Shares of biomass and electricity
increase
 Urgent action required – emissions
must peak by around 2020
 Non-OECD countries also need to cut
emissions below current levels
© OECD/IEA - 2011

5. World: CO2 emissions
60
ENERGY
Gt CO2
TECHNOLOGY
50
PERSPECTIVES Other
2010
40 Buildings
Scenarios & Transport
Strategies 30
to 2050 Industry
20 Other transformation
Power generation
10
0
2007 2030 2050 2030 2050
Baseline BLUE Map
• Global emissions double by 2050 in Baseline
• 50% reduction in 2050 on 2005 levels in BLUE, equivalent
to 75% reduction from 2050 Baseline
© OECD/IEA - 2011

6. Key technologies for reducing global CO2
emissions under the BLUE Map scenario
ENERGY
60
TECHNOLOGY
Gt CO2
Baseline emissions 57 Gt CCS 19%
PERSPECTIVES 55
2010 50 Renewables 17%
45
Scenarios &
Nuclear 6%
Strategies 40
to 2050
35
Power generation efficiency and
30 fuel switching 5%
25 End-use fuel switching 15%
20
End-use fuel and electricity
15 efficiency 38%
BLUE Map emissions 14 Gt
10
5
WEO 2009 450 ppm case ETP2010 analysis
0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
A wide range of technologies will be necessary to reduce
energy-related CO2 emissions substantially.
© OECD/IEA - 2011

7. Modelling the Buildings Sector
ENERGY
 Model for buildings sector
TECHNOLOGY developed for ETP 2006
PERSPECTIVES
2010  Regional model, but model
Scenarios &
Strategies
large countries separately
to 2050
 Bottom-up approach,
focusing on end-uses,
includes stock models
 Very data intensive
 Continuously working to
improve understanding of
global building stock and
energy consumption by end-
use
© OECD/IEA - 2011

8. Energy consumption by fuel
and by scenario
ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
2010
Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050
Energy consumption in the building sector is 5%
higher in 2050 than in 2007 in the BLUE Map Scenario.
© OECD/IEA - 2011

9. Energy consumption by fuel, by
scenario and region
ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
2010
Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050
OECD regions reduce energy consumption below 2007
levels in the BLUE Map scenario by 2050.
© OECD/IEA - 2011

10. Energy savings by sector and
by end use, 2050
ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
2010
Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050
Two-thirds of the energy savings in the BLUE map
scenario come from the residential sector.
© OECD/IEA - 2011

11. BLUE Map results for Buildings:
CO2 emissions
ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
2010
Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050
In the BLUE Map scenario, buildings sector CO2
emissions in 2050 are 83% lower than in the
© OECD/IEA - 2011 Baseline scenario.

12. BLUE Map results for Buildings:
CO2 emissions
ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
2010
Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050
Improvements in the building shell and energy
savings in electrical end-uses dominate total CO2
© OECD/IEA - 2011 reductions in the BLUE Map scenario.

13. Key Technologies for the
Buildings Sector in BLUE Map
 Tighter building standards and codes
ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
for new residential and commercial
PERSPECTIVES buildings
2010
 Large-scale refurbishment of residential
Scenarios &
Strategies
buildings in the OECD
to 2050
 Highly efficient heating, cooling and
ventilation systems
 Improved lighting efficiency
 Improved appliance efficiency
 The widespread deployment of CO2-free
technologies. Including the widespread
deployment of solar thermal, bioenergy,
heat pumps, and fuel cell CHP.
 Cross-cutting technologies: thermal
energy storage and importance of
future proofing for smart grid
© OECD/IEA - 2011

14. Key Messages
 Baseline scenario: CO2 emissions grow from
ENERGY 8.1 gigatonnes (Gt) of CO2 to 15.2 Gt CO2 in
TECHNOLOGY 2050
PERSPECTIVES
2010  BLUE Map scenario reduces this by 83% in 2050
 Decarbonisation of electricity reduces emissions by
Scenarios &
Strategies
6.8 Gt CO2)
to 2050  Buildings are the key to low-cost CO2 abatement
scenarios
 Energy efficiency and switch to low- and zero-carbon
technologies reduces emissions by 5.8 Gt CO2
 Very different challenges in OECD and non-
OECD
 Most of the technology solutions are available
today and are generally mature, but more R&D
needed
 However, uptake is far from optimal from an
economic or environmental perspective
 Strong policy action is required
© OECD/IEA - 2011

15. Next steps
ENERGY  Model update – ETP 2012
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES  Expand regional coverage of the
2010
buildings sector
Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050
 Expand the time horizon to 2075
 Increase technological specificities
 E.g. include hydrogen fuel-cell; solar
space cooling; etc.
 Refine stock accounting models
 Better tracking of appliance stock
 Update data with most up-to-date
information
 Including the newly released World
Energy Outlook
© OECD/IEA - 2011

16. ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
2010
Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050
Thank you
© OECD/IEA - 2011