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Introduction to Energy Technology Roadmaps
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Introduction to Energy Technology Roadmaps
1.
Introduction to Energy
Technology Roadmaps Energy technology roadmaps Energy technology roadmaps © OECD/IEA 2011
2.
Key technologies for
reducing global CO2 emissions 60 Gt CO2 Baseline emissions 57 Gt End-use fuel and electricity 55 efficiency 38% 50 End-use fuel switching 15% 45 40 Power generation efficiency and 35 fuel switching 5% source: IEA Energy Technology Perspectives 2010 30 Nuclear 6% 25 Renewables 17% 20 15 BLUE Map emissions 14 Gt CCS 19% 10 5 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 A wide range of technologies will be necessary to reduce energy-related CO2 emissions substantially. Energy technology roadmaps 28-Feb-12 © OECD/IEA 2009
3.
The Role of
Roadmaps • A global price for carbon is necessary – …but by itself insufficient to accelerate the needed energy technology advancements in time • Greater focus on energy technology policies needed • Technology roadmaps can support GHG goals by: – Identifying and addressing technology-specific barriers – Highlighting necessary deployment policies and incentives – Directing increased RD&D funding for new technologies – Supporting technology diffusion, knowledge sharing among countries Energy technology roadmaps © OECD/IEA 2011
4.
Technology roadmaps provide
answers • Where is technology today? • GW installed capacity/kWh of savings • Leading countries/regions • Cost, efficiency • What is the deployment pathway needed to achieve 2050 goals? • Use IEA Energy Technology Perspectives BLUE Map scenarios • What are the priority near-term actions? • R&D gaps and how to fill them • Identify barriers and obstacles and how to overcome • Market requirements and policy needs • Technology diffusion/transfer and international collaboration needs Energy technology roadmaps © OECD/IEA 2011
5.
Roadmap logic • Goal
to achieve • Milestones to be met • Gaps to be filled • Actions to overcome gaps and barriers • What and when things need to be achieved Energy technology roadmaps © OECD/IEA 2011
6.
Roadmap process outline
Energy technology roadmaps © OECD/IEA 2011
7.
Roadmap Tasks • Scoping
phase reviewing existing work and identifying issues • One or more workshops with 15-30 experts from industry, government, academia... • Develop draft roadmap • Circulate draft of roadmap to wider stakeholder group • Carry out missing analysis and refine roadmap • Re-circulate second draft for further comment • Publish roadmap Energy technology roadmaps © OECD/IEA 2011
8.
Technology roadmaps 2009
2010 2011 2012 •Vehicle Fuel Economy •High efficiency, low emissions coal •Hydropower •Bioenergy •Solar heating & cooling •Energy efficient building envelopes •Chemical catalysis Energy technology roadmaps © OECD/IEA 2011
9.
IEA ROADMAP EXAMPLES
Energy technology roadmaps © OECD/IEA 2011
10.
Roadmap example: Wind -
an ambitious growth pathway 6000 25% Wind electricity production (TWh/yr) 5000 % of global electricity production 20% 4000 15% 3000 10% 2000 5% 1000 0 0% 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 China OECD Europe USA OECD Pacific Latin America India EiT Other North America Middle East Other Developing Asia Africa Wind share BLUE Map scenario Wind share BLUE hi REN scenario Energy technology roadmaps © OECD/IEA 2011
11.
EE in Buildings
roadmap example: Cost reduction goals Energy technology roadmaps © OECD/IEA 2011
12.
EV/PHEV roadmap example:
milestones Energy technology roadmaps © OECD/IEA 2011
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