Built Environment Analysis Model² (BEAM²) Kjell Bettgenhäuser, Ecofys

1. The Built Environment
Analysis Model²
IEA Building Envelope Technologies and Policies Workshop
Paris, November 17th 2011
Kjell Bettgenhäuser

2. Agenda
BEAM² Methodology
Reference Scenario for Germany
Impact Assessment Scenarios for the EU27
Discussion
© ECOFYS | 17/11/2011 | Kjell Bettgenhäuser

3. Methodology
Key research questions
 What energy and CO2-emission reduction potentials in buildings?
 in which timeline
 to what costs Bottom-up model based
on sound physical,
 with what limitations technical & economic
 Which role play assessments
 Financial incentives using the EN ISO 13790
standard and others
 Normative restrictions
 What is the building sector contribution to climate regimes?
© ECOFYS | 17/11/2011 | Kjell Bettgenhäuser

4. Methodology
 Building-Stock Analysis of Cities, Regions and Countries
 Overview on
 Energy Demand (Space Heating & Cooling, Hot Water,
Electricity)
 Primary Energy (incl. Fuel Mix)
 CO2-and GHG-Emissions
 Investments (Insulation, Heating- and Ventilation Systems)
 Running Costs (Energy- and Maintenance Costs)
 Effectiveness of Energy Efficiency Measures
 Performance based assessment of current building stock and
calculation of various scenarios for the future
© ECOFYS | 17/11/2011 | Kjell Bettgenhäuser

5. Methodology
Input for
 Current building stock
 Reference buildings (geometries)
 Thermal standards in stock (building shell)
 Technology (HVAC equipment)
 m² of all combinations in stock
 Scenario calculation
 Retrofit, new building and demolition programs
 Definition of systems and efficiency standards
 Climate data (HDD resp. temperature & irradiation)
 Energy prices and investment costs for measures
© ECOFYS | 17/11/2011 | Kjell Bettgenhäuser

6. Methodology
Differences to other models in the built environment:
(i.e. Invert, Ikarus, HEAT)
• Approach (top down vs. bottom-up)
• Calculation (Performance based vs. component based)
• Type of calculation (endogenous optimizations* vs. exogenous
calculations)
• Sectors covered (residential only vs. all conditioned buildings)
• Type of energy consumption (space heating**, hot water, cooling**,
auxiliary energy, electrical appliances)
• Arithmetics (accounting models vs. calibrated models)
• Flexibility (static defined models vs. flexible models)
* IEA Energy Technology Model; ** GEA Buildings Model
© ECOFYS | 17/11/2011 | Kjell Bettgenhäuser

7. Methodology
© ECOFYS | 17/11/2011 | Kjell Bettgenhäuser

8. Methodology
© ECOFYS | 17/11/2011 | Kjell Bettgenhäuser

9. Methodology
 Implementation in a professional Oracle® database environment
© ECOFYS | 17/11/2011 | Kjell Bettgenhäuser

10. Methodology
© ECOFYS | 17/11/2011 | Kjell Bettgenhäuser

11. Reference Scenario Germany
300.000
250.000
200.000
kt/a
150.000
100.000
50.000
0
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Direct and indirekt CO2-emissions [based on BMWi Energiedaten] Direct CO2-emissions only [based on BMWi Energiedaten]
[Kleemann,Hansen, 2005] CO2, Direct Emissions, Heating + Hot Water [Matthes, Gores et al., 2008] CO2, Direct Emissions, Heating and Hot Water
[Matthes, Gores et al., 2009] CO2-eq, Direct Emissions, Heating and Hot Water [Matthes, Gores et al., 2009] CO2, Direct Emissions, Heating and Hot Water
Historic development of CO2-/ CO2eq-emissions in underlying studies between 1990 and 2010. Not climate corrected.
© ECOFYS | 17/11/2011 | Kjell Bettgenhäuser

12. Reference Scenario Germany
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Energy advise for private consumers
Environmental Label "Blue Angel" (Umweltzeichen "Blauer Engel")
Heating Installations Ordinance (Heizungsanlagenverordnung) of 1978/82
BMU Programme for the Financing of Demonstration Projects
Ordinance on Heat Consumption Metering (Heizkostenverordnung)
Thermal Insulation Ordinance (Wärmeschutzverordnung) of 1982
DtA Environmental Finance Programme (DtA-Umweltprogramm)
KfW Environmental Protection Programme (KfW-Umweltprogramm)
Environmental Debt Guarantee Programme (Umweltschutzbürgschaftsprogramm)
Small-Scale Combustion Plant Ordinance (Kleinfeuerungsanlagenverordnung)
Housing modernisation programme for the new Federal states (Wohnraum-Modernisierungsprogramm neue Bundesländer)
On-site energy advice (Vor-Ort-Beratung)
Small-Scale Combustion Plant Ordinance (Kleinfeuerungsanlagenverordnung)
“100-million-DM programme” for renewables
Heating Installations Ordinance (Heizungsanlagenverordnung) of 1994
Thermal Insulation Ordinance (Wärmeschutzverordnung) of 1994
Voluntary agreement with German industry I (Erklärung der deutschen Wirtschaft zur Klimavorsorge I)
ERP Environmental Protection and Energy Saving Programme (ERP-Umwelt- und Energiesparprogramm)
Ecological Bonus Programme for owner-occupied homes
KfW CO2 Reduction Programme (KfW-Programm zur CO2-Minderung)
ECO Managment and Audit Scheme (EMAS)
Energy Consumption Labelling Ordinance (Energieverbrauchskennzeichnungsverordnung)
100 000 Roofs Solar Power Programme (100 000-Dächer-Solarstrom-Programm)
Ordinance on Maximum Energy Consumption (Energieverbrauchshöchstwerteverordnung)
Ecological Tax Reform (Ökologische Steuerreform)
Market Incentive Programme for Renewable Energies (Marktanreizprogramm für erneuerbare Energien)
Voluntary agreement with German industry II
German Energy Agency (Deutsche Energie-Agentur – dena)
KfW CO2 Building Rehabilitation Programme (KfW-CO2-Gebäudesanierungsprogramm)
Voluntary Agreement on CHP (Selbstverpflichtung der Wirtschaft zur Förderung der KWK)
Energy Savings Ordinance (Energieeinsparverordnung - EnEV)
Energy Efficiency Campaign (Initiative EnergieEffizienz)
Heat Power Cogeneration Act (Kraft-Wärme-Kopplungsgesetz)
KfW Housing Modernisation Programme 2003
Legend Act on the Further Development of the Ecological Tax Reform
KfW Programme Ecological Construction
Measure-effects in underlying studies quantified KfW Programme Housing Modernisation
Measure-effects in underlying studies not quantified Energy certificates for buildings
Special fund for energy efficiency in SME's
Measure in force Eco-Design of Energy-using Products
Smart metering
CO2-mitigating measures in the German building sector between 1990 and 2010
in chronological order. Source: Mure II database
© ECOFYS | 17/11/2011 | Kjell Bettgenhäuser

13. Reference Scenario Germany
Quantification of CO2-emission reductions in 2010 [Mt CO2/a].
Future retrofit- and new-building rates.
© ECOFYS | 17/11/2011 | Kjell Bettgenhäuser

14. Reference Scenario Germany
300.000
250.000
200.000
kt/a
150.000
-40% Emission Saving Target
100.000
50.000
0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Heating + Hot Water (all buildings) [BMWi] direct and indirect emissions Heating + Hot Water (all buildings) [BMWi] direct emissions only
"-40% in 2020" target Heating + Hot Water (all buildings)
Sensitivity retrofit rate 1.8% Sensitivity retrofit rate 1.0%
CO2-mitigating potential for heating and hot water in residential and non-residential buildings up to 2010
from study evaluation and forecast until 2020. For 2010-2020, three scenarios with different retrofit-rates
(1.0%, 1.4% and 1.8%) are calculated, resulting in different emission paths. Not climate corrected.
© ECOFYS | 17/11/2011 | Kjell Bettgenhäuser

15. Impact Assessment EU27
Useful floor area in 2005 in mio m²
12.000
CO2 Emissions from space heating in 2005 in Mt/a
10.000
500
450
8.000
400
mio m²
350
6.000
300
Mt/a
250
4.000
200
150
2.000
100
50
0
Non-res Non-res Non-res
MFH small 0
(200- MFH medium MFH large
RH (50-200 m²) building (200- building (500- building (>1000 Non-res
Non-res Non-res
500 m²) RH (50-200m²) MFH small
(500-1000 (>1000 m²) MFH medium MFH large
500m²) 1000m²) buildingm²) (200- building (500- building
m²) (200-500 m²) (500-1000 m²) (>1000 m²)
500m²) 1000m²) (>1000 m²)
Floor area 10.721 2.061 1.730 2.373 1.244 1.091 4.353
CO2-emissions 467 47 38 61 49 41 170
Areas residential CO2non-residential buildings in the EU27 in 2005 non-residential buildings in the EU27 in
and -emissions from space heating, residential and
2005
Source: Impact assessment for the revised EPBD, Report for the EC, Ecofys 2008.
© ECOFYS | 17/11/2011 | Kjell Bettgenhäuser

16. Impact Assessment EU27
EU15 Eastern EU
New building rate 1% 1%
Demolition rate 0,5% 0,5%
Retrofit rate of buildings not affected by the current EPBD 0,7% 0,4%
Retrofit rate of buildings affected by the current EPBD 1,8% 1,0%
Development rates of the EU27 building stock
&
Scenario Description
Original EPBD >1000 m² Original EPBD as from 2006 with 1.000 m² threshold
EPBD >500 m² Original EPBD in 2006, threshold of 500 m² as from 2009
Scenario Description
EPBD >200 m² Original EPBD in 2006, threshold of 200 m² as from 2009
EPBD >500 m², high retrofit As according scenario above, with improved retrofit rate
EPBD >50 m² Original EPBD in 2006, threshold of 50 m² as from 2009
EPBD >200 m², high retrofit As according scenario above, with improved retrofit rate
Scenarios threshold options Scenario Description
EPBD >50 m², high retrofit As according scenario above, with improved retrofit rate
EPBD >500 m², high retrofit, low As according scenario above with improved thermal standards
Scenarios high retrofit rate
energy
EPBD >200 m², high retrofit, low As according scenario above with improved thermal standards
energy
EPBD >50 m², high retrofit, low As according scenario above with improved thermal standards
energy
Scenarios improved thermal standards
Source: Impact assessment for the revised EPBD, Report for the EC, Ecofys 2008.
© ECOFYS | 17/11/2011 | Kjell Bettgenhäuser

17. Impact Assessment EU27
Endenergy EU-27
4.000
3.500
3.000
2.500
TWh/a
2.000
1.500
1.000
500
0
2009 2014 2019 2024 2029
year
EU27-EPBD (>1000) EU27-EPBD(>500)
EU27-EPBD(>200) EU27-EPBD (>50)
EU27-EPBD (>50), high retrofit EU27-EPBD (>50), high retrofit, improved thermal standards
Source: Impact assessment for the revised EPBD, Report for the EC, Ecofys 2008.
© ECOFYS | 17/11/2011 | Kjell Bettgenhäuser

18. Impact Assessment EU27
Endenergy savings compared to EPBD (>1.000) in TWh/a CO2 savings compared to EPBD (>1.000) in Mt/a
threshold already partially abolished threshold already partially abolished
900 200
800 180
700 160
Endenergy savings compared to EPBD (>1.000) in TWh/a 140 CO2 savings compared to EPBD (>1.000) in Mt/a
600
threshold already partially abolished, high retrofit 120threshold already partially abolished, high retrofit
TWh/ a
500
Mt/ a
100
400
900 200
80
300
800 180
60
200 160
700 40
Endenergy savings compared to EPBD (>1.000) in TWh/a 140 CO2 savings compared to EPBD (>1.000) in Mt/a
100
600 20
threshold already partially abolished, high retrofit, improved threshold already partially abolished, high retrofit, improved
120
TWh/ a
0 0
Mt/ a
500 2010 thermal standards
2020 2030 2010
thermal standards2020 2030
100
400
EPBD >500 m² 3 33 37 EPBD >500 m²
80 1 8 9
900
EPBD >200 m² 6 63 66 200
EPBD >200 m² 1 14 15
300 60
EPBD >50 m² 23 230 246 EPBD >50 180
m² 5 51 55
200800 40
160
100700 20
140
0
0600 120 2010 2020 2030
2010 2020 2030
Mt/ a
EPBD >500 m² 3 25 27
TWh/ a
500
EPBD >500 m² 13 104 115 100
EPBD >200 m² 20 156 168 EPBD >200 m² 5 36 39
80
EPBD >50 m²400 56 475 498 EPBD >50 m² 13 108 112
60
300
40
200 20
100 0
2010 2020 2030
0 EPBD >500 m² 5 35 46
2010 2020 2030
EPBD >200 m² 7 50 63
EPBD >500 m² 22 148 194
EPBD >50 m² 17 139 171
EPBD >200 m² 30 211 270
EPBD >50 m² 73 612 759
Source: Impact assessment for the revised EPBD, Report for the EC, Ecofys 2008.
© ECOFYS | 17/11/2011 | Kjell Bettgenhäuser

19. Impact Assessment EU27
Additional annual capital costs compared to EPBD (>1.000) Total annual profit compared to EPBD (>1.000) in Billion €/a
in Billion €/a threshold partially abolished, high retrofit, improved threshold partially abolished, high retrofit, improved thermal
thermal standards standards
Annual energy cost savings compared to EPBD (>1.000) in Billion €/a
50 60
threshold partially abolished, high retrofit, improved thermal
standards
45
50
40 120
35
100 40
30
Billion €/ a
Billion €/ a
80
25 30
Billion €/ a
20 60
20
15
40
10
10
20
5
0 0 0
2010 2020 2030
2010 2020 20102030 2020 2030
EPBD >500 m² 1 6
EPBD >500 m² 2 11 16
EPBD >500 m² 1 24 10 13
EPBD >200 m² 1 9
EPBD >200 m² 3 16 23
EPBD >200 m² 2 34 14 19
EPBD >50 m² 3 24
EPBD >50 m² 7 41 EPBD >50 m²
66 4 94 43 53
Source: Impact assessment for the revised EPBD, Report for the EC, Ecofys 2008.
© ECOFYS | 17/11/2011 | Kjell Bettgenhäuser

20. Successfully applied for…
© ECOFYS | 17/11/2011 | Kjell Bettgenhäuser

21. Kjell Bettgenhäuser
Ecofys Germany
E: k.bettgenhaeuser@ecofys.com
T: +49 221 270 70-157