The document discusses future internet strategy in Taiwan using the Delphi method. It outlines the Delphi method process which involves multiple rounds of surveys to experts to build consensus on important issues. The document then discusses specific policies related to future internet research that were evaluated, including architecture research, advanced applications research, experimental networks, governance, and economics. Results from the Delphi rounds show a consensus among experts that architecture research and advanced applications research were the most important policies.

1. Future Internet Strategy
in Taiwan
Dr. Kenny Huang
TWNIC BoD; APNIC EC
Future Internet Policy Program Leader
huangk@mindext.com
1

2. Issue: Internet Hourglass Model
Everything on
IP
Robust to
changes Fragile to
changes
IP
on Everything
David Talbot. (2005). The Internet is Broken. MIT Technology Review.
“The Net’s basic flaws cost firms billions, impede innovation, and threaten
national security. It’s time for a clean-slate approach”
2

3. International Foresight Research Comparison
Source: PRESS (2008)
3

4. Foresight Research Deliveries
Source: PRESS (2008)
4

5. Japan Science & Technology Base Plan Foresight
Methodology
Source: NISTEP (2003)
5

6. Purpose of the research
What policies should be recommended when deciding to
engage Future Internet research in Taiwan
How much agreement is there among invited experts about the
relative importance of these proposed Future Internet policies
Which of the proposed policies are not considered important
by the invited experts
6

7. Method of Strategic Planning
EXTERNAL
ENVIRONMENT
Introduction Goals that meet
the real needs
of Citizens and
Businesses
Vision
Recent and urgent tasks
Strategy
Strategic Goals
Цели
Objectives
Action of state
Цели
Tasks administration
in order to
fulfill the
Action Plan
Цели
Metrics Цели
Stages strategic goals
Цели
Projects
Цели
Phases
7

8. Why Delphi Method
The research required a methodology that would identify the
variables and aid participants in ranking and selecting
important variables.
Because consensus about the relative importance of variables
was an objective, the Delphi technique was selected.
It parallels the methods employed in previous IT policy and
general consensus research.
Brancheau, “Key issues in information systems management: A Delphi Study of IS
Executives and Corporate general Managers”, Working Paper Series-MISRC-WP-87-09,
University of Minnesota.
Dickson, “Key information Issues for the 1980’s”, MIS Quarterly Vol 8, No 3, 1984, pp135-
159
8

9. Flow Chart for Delphi method
Start
Problem Definition
Select panel members based
on the expertise required
Prepare and distribute
questionnaire
Analyze questionnaire response
Yes Has a consensus been reached
No
Provide requested information
and tabulated response
Develop final report
9

10. AHP: Analytical Hierarchy Process
GOAL
CRITERIA
ALTERNATIVES
•Founded by Saaty in 1980.
•It is a popular and widely used method for multi-criteria decision making.
•Allows the use of qualitative, as well as quantitative criteria in evaluation.
•Wide range of applications exists
10

11. Policy & Strategy Deliberation of Future Internet (FI)
Policy Deliberation
Explanation Literature References
from the Literature
Architecture research Research on architectural elements FIND, FIRE, AKARI
Advanced apps research Research on advanced services/apps CNGI, GEANT, AKARI
FI Forum Forum for FI information sharing AsiaFI, FIA, FIF
Advanced R&E network Advanced R&E infrastructure development Internet2, APAN, GEANT
FI experimental research Experiment and testbed operation GENI,GEANT, CNGI
FI governance research Research on Future Internet governance FP7, FIRE, FIF
FI social and policy research Research on social and politic impact FP7, FIRE
FI Economic research Research on economic impact FP7, FIRE
Strategy Deliberation
Explanation Literature References
from the Literature
Clean Slate Approach TCP/IP architectural redesign FIND, FIRE, AKARI
Incremental Approach Improve things based on TCP/IP architecture CNGI
11

12. Ranking Data by Delphi Round
Round 1 Round 2
Level of Importance Rank Policy Ranking Mean Std % Mean Std %
Rank Dev Top 3 Rank Dev Top 3
IMPORTANT 1 Architecture research 2.69 1.70 61.5
2 Advanced apps research 3.31 1.65 53.8
MODERATELY IMPORTANT 3 FI Forum 3.17 2.41 53.8
4 Advanced R&E network 3.25 1.48 46.2
5 FI experimental research 3.31 1.75 76.9
UNIMPORTANT 6 FI governance research 5.67 1.78 7.7
7 FI social and policy research 5.83 2.37 15.4
8 FI Economics research 5.50 1.83 7.7
12

13. Delphi Mean Rank
6
7
6
8
5 1 Network architecture research
2 Advanced services/apps research
Mean Rank
3 FI Forum
4 4 Advanced R&E network
5 Network experiment research
5 2
4 6 FI governance research
3
3
7 FI social & policy research
1
8 FI economics research
2
ROUND1 ROUND2
13

14. Delphi Percentage in Top Three
65
1
55 3 2
Percentage in Top Three
1 Network architecture research
45 4 2 Advanced services/apps research
3 FI Forum
35 4 Advanced R&E network
5 Network experiment research
25 6 FI governance research
7 FI social & policy research
15 7
8 FI economics research
8 6
5
ROUND1 ROUND2
14

15. Delphi Standard Deviation
2.4 3
7
1 Network architecture research
Standard Deviation
2.2
2 Advanced services/apps research
3 FI Forum
2
4 Advanced R&E network
8 5 Network experiment research
1.8 6
5 6 FI governance research
1
2 7 FI social & policy research
1.6
8 FI economics research
4
1.4
ROUND1 ROUND2
15

16. Nonparametric Statistics Friedman Test
Item Gov Research Business Ri Li
1 Architecture research 2 2 1 5 5
2 Advanced apps research 4 1 2 7 14
3 FI Forum 1 5 2 8 24
4 Advanced R&E network 3 4 2 9 27
5 FI experimental research 5 3 5 13 65
6 FI governance research 7 6 6 19 114
7 FI social and policy research 7 7 7 21 147
8 FI Economics research 6 8 7 21 168
16

17. Friedman Test Computation
H0: There is no difference between the proposed policies
H1: There is a difference between the proposed policies
α = 0.05 df = 7
Critical Value X2 (0.95, 7)=14.0671
If X2 is greater than 14.0671: Reject the null hypothesis
After computation, X2 =9.61
X2 is not greater than 14.0671: do not reject the null hypothesis
Conclusion:
There is no statistical difference among the proposed policies
17

18. Weight-Ranking from Government
Government
Item
1 2 3 Weight Rank
FI Forum 1 1 3 22 1
FI architecture research 1 4 1 21 2
FI Advanced R&E network 2 2 4 19 3
FI Advanced apps research 3 5 2 17 4
FI experimental research 3 3 6 15 5
FI economics research 4 8 5 10 6
FI social & policy research 4 7 7 9 7
FI governance research 4 6 8 9 7
18

19. 19
15.25
Mean
39.1
FI governance
Nonparametric Statistics Jackknife Test (Gov)
FI governance
9
research research
90% confidence level , r= 3.594
39.1
FI social & policy
9
research FI social & policy
research
Low Priority
27.6
FI economics
10
research FI economics research
FI experiment
0.1
15
research FI experiment
research
FI advanced apps
Median
3.1
17
research FI advanced apps
research
N=8, V=7, T(0.95,7)=1.8946 s=5.37
14.1
Advanced R&E
19
Advanced R&E
network
network
33.1
FI architecture
21
FI architecture
research
research
18.84 >= r >=11.66
High Priority
45.6
22
FI forum
FI forum
weight
Sj2
Government

20. Weight Ranking from Research Community
Research
Item
1 2 3 4 5 Weight Rank
FI advanced apps research 3 3 1 1 5 32 1
FI architecture research 2 2 4 5 1 31 2
FI experiment research 4 5 2 2 5 27 3
Advanced R&E network 4 3 4 1 24 4
FI forum 1 8 1 5 21 5
FI governance research 6 7 3 4 16 6
FI social & policy research 8 6 7 1 14 7
FI economics research 7 5 6 5 13 8
20

21. 21
22.25
Mean
Nonparametric Statistics Jackknife Test (Research)
FI economics research
85.6
FI economics
13
research
90% confidence level, r = 5.009
FI social & policy
68.1
FI social & policy research
Low Priority
14
research
FI governance
research
39.1
FI governance
16
research
FI forum
1.6
21
FI forum
Advanced R&E
Advanced R&E network
3.1
24
network
N=8, V=7, T(0.95,7)=1.8946 s=7.48
Median
FI experiment
research
22.6
FI experiment
27
research
FI architecture
76.6
FI architecture research
31
research
High Priority
27.26 >= r >=17.24
FI advanced apps
95.1
FI advanced apps research
32
research
weight
Sj2
Research community

22. Weight Ranking from Business
Business
Item
1 2 3 4 5 Weight Rank
FI architecture research 1 5 1 5 3 30 1
FI advanced apps research 2 4 5 6 1 27 2
Advanced R&E network 3 3 3 7 2 27 2
FI forum 4 1 6 3 4 27 2
FI experiment research 6 2 2 4 5 26 5
FI governance research 7 5 7 1 6 19 6
FI social & policy research 8 5 8 2 7 15 7
FI economics research 5 5 4 8 8 15 7
22

23. 23
23.25
Mean
Nonparametric Statistics Jackknife Test (Business)
68.1
FI economics research
15
FI economics research
90% confidence level, r = 3.999
FI social & policy
68.1
FI social & policy
15
research research
Low Priority
FI governance
18.1
FI governance
19
research research
FI experiment
FI experiment
7.6
26
research
research
Median
14.1
FI Forum
27
FI Forum
N=8, V=7, T(0.95,7)=1.8946 s=5.97
Advanced R&E
14.1
Advanced R&E
27
network
network
FI advanced apps
14.1
FI advanced apps
27
research
High Priority
research
27.25 >= r >=19.25
FI architecture
45.6
FI architecture
30
research
research
weight
Sj2
Business

24. Delphi Weight Ranking for All Participants
weigh
Item G1 G2 G3 R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 B1 B2 B3 B4 B5 Rank
t
FI architecture research 1 4 1 2 2 4 5 1 1 5 1 5 3 82 1
FI advanced apps
3 5 2 3 3 1 1 5 2 4 5 6 1 76 2
research
FI forum 1 1 3 1 8 1 5 4 1 6 3 4 70 3
Advanced R&E network 2 2 4 4 3 4 1 3 3 3 7 2 70 4
FI experiment research 3 3 6 4 5 2 2 5 6 2 2 4 5 68 5
FI governance research 4 6 8 6 7 3 4 7 5 7 1 6 44 6
FI social & policy
4 7 7 8 6 7 1 8 5 8 2 7 38 7
research
FI economics research 4 8 5 7 5 6 5 5 5 4 8 8 38 8
24

25. 25
60.75
Mean
217.6
FI economics FI economics
90% confidence level, r = 11.9383
38
Nonparametric Statistics Jackknife Test (all)
research research
217.6
FI social & policy FI social & policy
38
research research
Low Priority
FI governance
430.6
FI governance
44
research research
2002.6
FI experiment FI experiment
68
research research
2185.6
Advanced R&E Advanced R&E
70
network network
N=8, V=7, T(0.95,7)=1.8946 s=17.82
Median
2185.6
FI forum
70
FI forum
2782.6
FI advanced apps
FI advanced apps
76
research
High Priority
research
72.69 >= r >= 48.81
3451.6
FI architecture
FI architecture
82
research
research
weight
Sj2
All participants

26. AHP Computational Result
Taiwan Future Internet Strategy
0.495 Clean Slate
0.505 Incremental Approach
Inconsistency=0.00 with 0 missing judgments
26

27. Delphi Methodology – Nonparametric Statistics
There is no
statistical
difference
Friedman among the
Test policies
Nonparametric
Statistics
Prioritize all
policy item
Jackknife
Test
27

28. Policy Recommendations
Weight Ranking
85
80
75
70
65
60
Nonparametric Statistics Jackknife Test
28

29. Government Role & Responsibility in High-Tech Policy
H Strengthen
Develop fair
industrial
IMPORTANCE
IMPORTANCE
competition Risk mitigation
competitive
environment
advantage
M
Deprioritize and source alternative technologies
L
L M H
RISK
29

30. Thank You
30