This presentation outlines the problems with planning.. and the dangers of waterfall planning. It introduces the basic reasoning for Agile Planning such as Scrum or Kanban

1. Agile Planning Training
Part 1/3
By Harlan Beverly
6/17/2014 1© 2013 - Harlan T. Beverly

2. Projects Fail BEFORE
Launch
• 37%?
• 90%?
• In my experience, it is between 50-
75% fail BEFORE LAUNCH!
– Never launch!
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3. Goals of Companies
1. Generate Profits
1. Generate Revenue
2. Reduce Costs
3. Reduce Expenses (difference?)
1. Maximize Utilization (Effeciency)
2. Please Shareholders
1. Stock Price
2. Growth Potential
3. Ship “the right products” On-Time
4. Maximize ‘every product’s’ potential.
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4. Conflicting Goals
• Shipping On Time
– Vs
• Maximum Efficiency
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5. Class Experiment
• Paper Processing Plant
– 1 person = folds each page as well.
• Pass Papers in a line from one to
another… keep passing!
– Now Here comes a colored paper
which is super urgent… how fast can
we get the colored page done?
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6. Another Experiment
• Limit Work-in-Progress Inventory to
2…
– Now how fast?
• But aren’t people idle????
• Isn’t this bad?
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7. The Lost Revenue Fallacy
• If the pink paper were worth 1000x
as much as a white paper… what is
the effect on revenue.
• What does this tell us about
“maximizing efficiency”?
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8. On-Time Projects
vs. Late Projects
• Costs of Late:
– Overages on budget.
– Lateness of later products.
– Loss of Revenue during time when
product could have been out to when it
actually launches.
• Permanent loss?
– Perhaps too late, and missed window
(canceled order/lost to competitor)
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9. Padding Fallacy
• Why not “ensure” that every project
is never late?
– Simply add a huge padding to the
end!!!
– Or????
• What about “right sized” padding?
– Murphy?
• Student Syndrome
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10. Estimation Fallacy
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11. Early Finish Fallacy
• Delays Accumulate
• Gains Don’t!
– Notice, if task c finishes early… person e will:
» Not necessarily hear about it and realize he can store
» Feel he has even more time now (student syndrome)
» Still be busy with some other project!
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12. Multitasking Fallacy
• Priority issues?
• Switching Costs
– Penalty for ‘forgetting’ where you were
– Cost of something changed since you were gone….
– Cost of changes, because you didn’t finish yet!
• Total ‘actual time’, ignoring those issues…
• See Joel on Software:
– http://www.joelonsoftware.com/articles/fog0000000022.html
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13. Parkinson’s Law
• “work expands to fill the allocated time.”
• No Early Finish Bonus!
• Strong Disincentives for Early Finish:
– Lowered estimates later
– Lower pay
– More work to be done… than if they had “dogged it”…
– BUT MURPHY COULD STILL STRIKE AFTER THEY
FINALLY START (since they dog early!)
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14. Changes &
Feature/Scope Creep
• The longer a project ‘isn’t done’ the
more chance of ‘changes’ and
feature/scope creep.
– Changes = wasted time
– Feature creep = expanding
requirements
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15. Unclear Requirements /
Definition-of-Done
• Beginning without knowing exactly
what is required = never being
done.
• Not defining done = never being
done.
• Not being done = not finishing on
time!
• SIMPLE LOGIC!
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16. Traditional Project
Planning: Waterfall Method
• Has a Tendency to be 100%+ Late,
and 100%+ Over-budget.
– Fall off the edge of a cliff.
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17. Critical Path
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• http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Critical_path_method
• Simply calculate the path of dependencies
with the longest total time duration.

18. Gantt Chart
(aka network diagram)
• http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gantt_chart
• Basically, this is the output of MS Project.
• Gantt charts illustrate the start and finish dates of the terminal
elements and summary elements of a project. Terminal
elements and summary elements comprise thework breakdown
structure of the project. Some Gantt charts also show
the dependency (i.e. precedence network) relationships between
activities. Gantt charts can be used to show current schedule
status using percent-complete shadings and a vertical "TODAY"
line. (Although this is usually BULLSHIT!)
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19. Microsoft Project/Gantt….
• Resources Considered?
– Will those resources be available when you need
them?
• Buffer? Where?
• Estimates at 50%? 90%? Where?
• Days??? REALLY! ?? Why not Hours???
• “tracking progress”… really?
– Cost of tracking?
– Is it true/real?
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