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  Future	
  Risk	
  
	
   	
  Key	
  Emerging	
  Global	
  and	
  Corporate	
  Challenges	
  
	
  5	
  February	
  2017	
   The	
  world’s	
  leading	
  open	
  foresight	
  program	
  
 
	
  
Future	
  Agenda	
  
The	
  Future	
  Agenda	
  is	
  the	
  world’s	
  largest	
  open	
  foresight	
  program.	
  	
  
Run	
  as	
  a	
  global	
  dialogue	
  across	
  all	
  conEnents,	
  it	
  accesses	
  mulEple	
  views	
  of	
  the	
  next	
  
decade	
  so	
  we	
  can	
  all	
  be	
  beIer	
  informed	
  and	
  so	
  focus	
  on	
  and	
  sEmulate	
  innovaEon.	
  
 
	
  
Future	
  Risks	
  
Over	
  the	
  past	
  few	
  months	
  we	
  have	
  been	
  running	
  a	
  number	
  of	
  workshops	
  focused	
  	
  
on	
  helping	
  organisaEons	
  to	
  idenEfy	
  and	
  develop	
  responses	
  to	
  emerging	
  global	
  	
  
and	
  corporate	
  risks.	
  This	
  is	
  a	
  summary	
  of	
  the	
  top	
  10	
  in	
  each	
  group.	
  
	
  
	
  
 
	
  
Top	
  10	
  Global	
  Risks	
  
	
  
	
  
 
	
  
Accelera9ng	
  Displacement	
  
Climate	
  change,	
  conflict,	
  resource	
  shortages,	
  inequality	
  and	
  poliEcal	
  elites	
  unable	
  or	
  
unwilling	
  to	
  bring	
  about	
  necessary	
  change	
  all	
  trigger	
  unprecedented	
  migraEon	
  to	
  the	
  
North.	
  Over	
  the	
  next	
  50	
  years,	
  as	
  many	
  as	
  1	
  billion	
  people	
  could	
  be	
  on	
  the	
  move.	
  
	
  
	
  
 
	
  
Air	
  Pollu9on	
  
	
  Rising	
  air	
  polluEon	
  in	
  many	
  ciEes	
  is	
  killing	
  people	
  and	
  becomes	
  
	
  a	
  visible	
  catalyst	
  for	
  changing	
  mind-­‐sets	
  and	
  policies	
  across	
  	
  
health,	
  energy,	
  transportaEon	
  and	
  urban	
  design.	
  
	
  
	
  
 
	
  
A	
  New	
  World	
  Order?	
  
We	
  are	
  witnessing	
  the	
  transiEon	
  to	
  a	
  new	
  order:	
  New	
  naEonal	
  interests,	
  
	
  new	
  trading	
  routes,	
  new	
  products	
  /	
  services	
  are	
  all	
  emerging.	
  How	
  to	
  ensure	
  
the	
  development	
  of	
  trade	
  in	
  this	
  environment	
  will	
  be	
  key	
  to	
  success.	
  	
  
	
  
	
  
 
	
  
Broader	
  Cyber	
  Terrorism	
  
Cyber	
  aIacks	
  move	
  from	
  the	
  virtual	
  world	
  to	
  the	
  physical	
  -­‐	
  aIacking	
  planes,	
  	
  
uEliEes	
  and	
  industrial	
  systems.	
  Some	
  see	
  a	
  corresponding	
  slow	
  down	
  in	
  	
  
the	
  adopEon	
  of	
  sensors	
  and	
  wider	
  use	
  of	
  private	
  encrypEon	
  technologies.	
  	
  
	
  
	
  
 
	
  
Closing	
  the	
  Inequality	
  Gap	
  
One	
  of	
  the	
  challenges	
  facing	
  the	
  state	
  is	
  how	
  to	
  balance	
  equity	
  	
  
and	
  autonomy.	
  A	
  centralised	
  system	
  is	
  oUen	
  viewed	
  to	
  be	
  	
  
more	
  equitable	
  at	
  the	
  expense	
  of	
  autonomy.	
  	
  
	
  
	
  
 
	
  
Flooded	
  Ci9es	
  
	
  The	
  vast	
  majority	
  of	
  our	
  ciEes	
  are	
  not	
  prepared	
  for	
  flooding.	
  Many	
  districts	
  	
  
and	
  households	
  can	
  no	
  longer	
  get	
  flood	
  insurance	
  and	
  are	
  in	
  jeopardy.	
  	
  
It’s	
  going	
  to	
  get	
  worse	
  before	
  it	
  gets	
  beIer.	
  
	
  
	
  
 
	
  
Global	
  Pandemics	
  
We	
  are	
  likely	
  to	
  see	
  2	
  to	
  3	
  major	
  pandemics	
  start	
  in	
  	
  
regions	
  with	
  limited	
  public	
  healthcare	
  and	
  rapidly	
  	
  
spread	
  globally	
  and	
  so	
  demand	
  fast	
  response	
  
	
  
	
  
 
	
  
Key	
  Resource	
  Constraints	
  
Economic,	
  physical	
  and	
  poliEcal	
  shortages	
  of	
  key	
  resources	
  increase	
  and	
  drive	
  
increasing	
  tension	
  between	
  and	
  within	
  countries.	
  As	
  we	
  exceed	
  the	
  Earth’s	
  
natural	
  thresholds,	
  food	
  and	
  water	
  receive	
  as	
  much	
  focus	
  as	
  oil	
  and	
  gas.	
  
	
  
	
  
 
	
  
Rising	
  Youth	
  Unemployment	
  
With	
  unemployment	
  rates	
  over	
  50%	
  in	
  some	
  naEons,	
  access	
  to	
  work	
  is	
  a	
  rising	
  	
  
barrier.	
  Especially	
  across	
  North	
  Africa,	
  the	
  Middle	
  East	
  and	
  southern	
  Europe,	
  	
  
a	
  lost	
  generaEon	
  of	
  100m	
  young	
  people	
  fails	
  to	
  gain	
  from	
  global	
  growth.	
  
	
  
	
  
 
	
  
Spiraling	
  Debt	
  
	
  China's	
  debt	
  has	
  quadrupled	
  since	
  2007	
  and	
  global	
  debt	
  has	
  risen	
  40%.	
  If	
  economies	
  
need	
  ever-­‐larger	
  amounts	
  of	
  debt	
  to	
  grow,	
  and	
  deleveraging	
  is	
  increasingly	
  difficult,	
  
we	
  may	
  need	
  to	
  learn	
  to	
  live	
  with	
  high	
  debt	
  or	
  face	
  another	
  major	
  financial	
  crisis.	
  
	
  
	
  
 
	
  
Top	
  10	
  Corporate	
  Risks	
  
	
  
	
  
 
	
  
Con9nuous	
  Proof	
  of	
  Loyalty	
  
Brands	
  have	
  to	
  consistently	
  demonstrate	
  their	
  loyalty	
  to	
  consumers	
  	
  
as	
  customer	
  mobility	
  and	
  switching	
  between	
  brands	
  increases.	
  Global,	
  	
  
regional	
  and	
  local	
  affiliaEons	
  blur	
  and	
  drive	
  wider	
  brand	
  consolidaEon.	
  
	
  
	
  
 
	
  
Declining	
  Government	
  Influence	
  
	
  NaEonal	
  governments’	
  ability	
  to	
  lead	
  change	
  comes	
  under	
  greater	
  pressure	
  	
  
from	
  both	
  above	
  and	
  below	
  -­‐	
  mulEnaEonal	
  organisaEons	
  increasingly	
  set	
  	
  
the	
  rules	
  while	
  ciEzens	
  trust	
  and	
  support	
  local	
  and	
  network	
  based	
  acEons.	
  	
  
	
  
	
  
 
	
  
Full	
  Cost	
  	
  
Increasing	
  transparency	
  of	
  society’s	
  reliance	
  on	
  nature,	
  intensify	
  	
  
requirements	
  for	
  business	
  to	
  pay	
  the	
  true	
  cost	
  of	
  the	
  resources	
  provided	
  	
  
by	
  ‘natural	
  capital’	
  and	
  so	
  compensate	
  for	
  their	
  negaEve	
  impact	
  on	
  society.	
  
	
  
	
  
 
	
  
Interconnected	
  Systems	
  
With	
  50bn	
  devices,	
  millions	
  of	
  sensors	
  and	
  the	
  roll-­‐out	
  of	
  the	
  Internet	
  of	
  Things,	
  
everything	
  that	
  can	
  be	
  connected	
  is.	
  While	
  many	
  gain	
  from	
  efficiencies,	
  	
  
others	
  are	
  increasingly	
  vulnerable	
  to	
  hacks	
  and	
  business	
  conEnuity	
  disrupEon.	
  
 
	
  
Managing	
  Data	
  Risk	
  
In	
  an	
  increasingly	
  connected	
  world,	
  risks	
  also	
  rise.	
  ProtecEon	
  against	
  hacking,	
  	
  
cyber-­‐aIacks,	
  fraud	
  and	
  counterfeiEng	
  all	
  drive	
  greater	
  security,	
  data	
  management	
  	
  
and	
  regulaEon	
  -­‐	
  but	
  this	
  is	
  balanced	
  by	
  the	
  pull	
  of	
  convenience	
  and	
  data	
  sharing.	
  	
  
	
  
	
  
 
	
  
Regula9on	
  Change	
  
RegulaEon	
  is	
  changing	
  rapidly	
  in	
  its	
  reach,	
  its	
  character	
  as	
  well	
  as	
  in	
  its	
  	
  
priority	
  areas	
  of	
  focus.	
  More	
  stringent	
  legislaEon,	
  an	
  end	
  to	
  some	
  global	
  
agreements,	
  changing	
  tax	
  rules	
  and	
  more	
  state	
  aid	
  are	
  all	
  in	
  the	
  pipeline.	
  
	
  
	
  
 
	
  
Speed	
  to	
  Scale	
  	
  
Greater	
  global	
  connecEvity,	
  growing	
  consumer	
  wealth	
  and	
  broader	
  	
  
reach	
  all	
  combine	
  to	
  accelerate	
  the	
  Eme	
  to	
  1bn	
  customers	
  and	
  a	
  	
  
$10bn	
  valuaEon	
  for	
  start-­‐ups	
  and	
  new	
  corporate	
  ventures	
  alike.	
  	
  
	
  
	
  
 
	
  
Truth	
  and	
  Illusion	
  
The	
  Internet	
  has	
  democraEsed	
  knowledge	
  and	
  changed	
  the	
  nature	
  of	
  who	
  we	
  trust	
  
and	
  why.	
  As	
  confidence	
  in	
  large	
  organisaEons	
  declines	
  the	
  search	
  for	
  trustworthy	
  
alternaEves	
  evolves.	
  What	
  we	
  believe	
  is	
  changing	
  how	
  we	
  behave.	
  	
  
	
  
	
  
 
	
  
The	
  Human	
  Touch	
  
In	
  a	
  world	
  of	
  global	
  and	
  digital	
  markeEng	
  and	
  consumpEon,	
  	
  
consumers	
  will	
  increasingly	
  favour	
  those	
  brands	
  that	
  can	
  offer	
  more	
  	
  
emoEonal	
  engagements,	
  and	
  specifically	
  human-­‐to-­‐human	
  contact.	
  
	
  
	
  
 
	
  
The	
  Rise	
  of	
  Machines	
  	
  
The	
  growth	
  in	
  the	
  intelligence	
  and	
  capabiliEes	
  of	
  machines	
  presents	
  both	
  	
  
a	
  threat	
  and	
  an	
  opportunity:	
  Greater	
  AI	
  and	
  automaEon	
  free	
  up	
  Eme,	
  but	
  also	
  
threaten	
  jobs	
  -­‐	
  both	
  low	
  skilled	
  and	
  managerial	
  /	
  administraEve	
  roles.	
  	
  	
  
	
  
	
  
 
	
  
More	
  Informa9on	
  and	
  Insights	
  
www.futureagenda.org	
  	
   hIp://tmiltd.com/products/future-­‐agenda	
  	
  hIp://www.slideshare.net/futureagenda2	
  	
  
 
	
  
Future	
  Agenda	
  in	
  Numbers	
  
The	
  first	
  Future	
  Agenda	
  programme	
  engaged	
  a	
  wide	
  range	
  of	
  views	
  in	
  
	
  25	
  countries.	
  Future	
  Agenda	
  2.0	
  doubled	
  the	
  face-­‐to-­‐face	
  interacEon	
  	
  
and	
  significantly	
  raised	
  online	
  sharing,	
  debate	
  and	
  discussion.	
  
Future	
  Agenda	
  1.0	
  
	
  
1	
  HOST	
  
16	
  TOPICS	
  
25	
  COUNTRIES	
  
50	
  WORKSHOPS	
  
1500	
  ORGANISATIONS	
  
Future	
  Agenda	
  2.0	
  
	
  
50	
  HOSTS	
  
24	
  TOPICS	
  
35	
  COUNTRIES	
  
120	
  WORKSHOPS	
  
5000	
  ORGANISATIONS	
  
 
	
  
Future	
  Agenda	
  2.0	
  Topics	
  
The	
  recent	
  Future	
  Agenda	
  program	
  took	
  place	
  during	
  2015	
  	
  
and	
  addressed	
  24	
  key	
  topics	
  via	
  120	
  events	
  in	
  45	
  ciEes	
  in	
  35	
  countries	
  	
  
across	
  5	
  conEnents	
  –	
  all	
  conducted	
  in	
  partnership	
  with	
  50	
  core	
  hosts.	
  
CiEes	
  
EducaEon	
  
Learning	
  
Transport	
  
CollaboraEon	
  
Energy	
  
Loyalty	
  
Travel	
  
Company	
  
Faith	
  
Payments	
  
Water	
  
ConnecEvity	
  
Food	
  
Privacy	
  
Wealth	
  
Currency	
  
Government	
  
Resources	
  
Work	
  
Ageing	
  
Data	
  
Health	
  
Trade	
  
 
	
  
Future	
  Agenda	
  
84	
  Brook	
  Street	
  
London	
  
W1K	
  5EH	
  
+44	
  203	
  0088	
  141	
  
futureagenda.org	
  
The	
  world’s	
  leading	
  open	
  foresight	
  program	
  
What	
  do	
  you	
  think?	
  
Join	
  In	
  |	
  Add	
  your	
  views	
  into	
  the	
  mix	
  
	
  
www.futureagenda.org	
  

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Future Risk - Emerging global and corporate challenges 05 02 17

  • 1.      Future  Risk      Key  Emerging  Global  and  Corporate  Challenges    5  February  2017   The  world’s  leading  open  foresight  program  
  • 2.     Future  Agenda   The  Future  Agenda  is  the  world’s  largest  open  foresight  program.     Run  as  a  global  dialogue  across  all  conEnents,  it  accesses  mulEple  views  of  the  next   decade  so  we  can  all  be  beIer  informed  and  so  focus  on  and  sEmulate  innovaEon.  
  • 3.     Future  Risks   Over  the  past  few  months  we  have  been  running  a  number  of  workshops  focused     on  helping  organisaEons  to  idenEfy  and  develop  responses  to  emerging  global     and  corporate  risks.  This  is  a  summary  of  the  top  10  in  each  group.      
  • 4.     Top  10  Global  Risks      
  • 5.     Accelera9ng  Displacement   Climate  change,  conflict,  resource  shortages,  inequality  and  poliEcal  elites  unable  or   unwilling  to  bring  about  necessary  change  all  trigger  unprecedented  migraEon  to  the   North.  Over  the  next  50  years,  as  many  as  1  billion  people  could  be  on  the  move.      
  • 6.     Air  Pollu9on    Rising  air  polluEon  in  many  ciEes  is  killing  people  and  becomes    a  visible  catalyst  for  changing  mind-­‐sets  and  policies  across     health,  energy,  transportaEon  and  urban  design.      
  • 7.     A  New  World  Order?   We  are  witnessing  the  transiEon  to  a  new  order:  New  naEonal  interests,    new  trading  routes,  new  products  /  services  are  all  emerging.  How  to  ensure   the  development  of  trade  in  this  environment  will  be  key  to  success.        
  • 8.     Broader  Cyber  Terrorism   Cyber  aIacks  move  from  the  virtual  world  to  the  physical  -­‐  aIacking  planes,     uEliEes  and  industrial  systems.  Some  see  a  corresponding  slow  down  in     the  adopEon  of  sensors  and  wider  use  of  private  encrypEon  technologies.        
  • 9.     Closing  the  Inequality  Gap   One  of  the  challenges  facing  the  state  is  how  to  balance  equity     and  autonomy.  A  centralised  system  is  oUen  viewed  to  be     more  equitable  at  the  expense  of  autonomy.        
  • 10.     Flooded  Ci9es    The  vast  majority  of  our  ciEes  are  not  prepared  for  flooding.  Many  districts     and  households  can  no  longer  get  flood  insurance  and  are  in  jeopardy.     It’s  going  to  get  worse  before  it  gets  beIer.      
  • 11.     Global  Pandemics   We  are  likely  to  see  2  to  3  major  pandemics  start  in     regions  with  limited  public  healthcare  and  rapidly     spread  globally  and  so  demand  fast  response      
  • 12.     Key  Resource  Constraints   Economic,  physical  and  poliEcal  shortages  of  key  resources  increase  and  drive   increasing  tension  between  and  within  countries.  As  we  exceed  the  Earth’s   natural  thresholds,  food  and  water  receive  as  much  focus  as  oil  and  gas.      
  • 13.     Rising  Youth  Unemployment   With  unemployment  rates  over  50%  in  some  naEons,  access  to  work  is  a  rising     barrier.  Especially  across  North  Africa,  the  Middle  East  and  southern  Europe,     a  lost  generaEon  of  100m  young  people  fails  to  gain  from  global  growth.      
  • 14.     Spiraling  Debt    China's  debt  has  quadrupled  since  2007  and  global  debt  has  risen  40%.  If  economies   need  ever-­‐larger  amounts  of  debt  to  grow,  and  deleveraging  is  increasingly  difficult,   we  may  need  to  learn  to  live  with  high  debt  or  face  another  major  financial  crisis.      
  • 15.     Top  10  Corporate  Risks      
  • 16.     Con9nuous  Proof  of  Loyalty   Brands  have  to  consistently  demonstrate  their  loyalty  to  consumers     as  customer  mobility  and  switching  between  brands  increases.  Global,     regional  and  local  affiliaEons  blur  and  drive  wider  brand  consolidaEon.      
  • 17.     Declining  Government  Influence    NaEonal  governments’  ability  to  lead  change  comes  under  greater  pressure     from  both  above  and  below  -­‐  mulEnaEonal  organisaEons  increasingly  set     the  rules  while  ciEzens  trust  and  support  local  and  network  based  acEons.        
  • 18.     Full  Cost     Increasing  transparency  of  society’s  reliance  on  nature,  intensify     requirements  for  business  to  pay  the  true  cost  of  the  resources  provided     by  ‘natural  capital’  and  so  compensate  for  their  negaEve  impact  on  society.      
  • 19.     Interconnected  Systems   With  50bn  devices,  millions  of  sensors  and  the  roll-­‐out  of  the  Internet  of  Things,   everything  that  can  be  connected  is.  While  many  gain  from  efficiencies,     others  are  increasingly  vulnerable  to  hacks  and  business  conEnuity  disrupEon.  
  • 20.     Managing  Data  Risk   In  an  increasingly  connected  world,  risks  also  rise.  ProtecEon  against  hacking,     cyber-­‐aIacks,  fraud  and  counterfeiEng  all  drive  greater  security,  data  management     and  regulaEon  -­‐  but  this  is  balanced  by  the  pull  of  convenience  and  data  sharing.        
  • 21.     Regula9on  Change   RegulaEon  is  changing  rapidly  in  its  reach,  its  character  as  well  as  in  its     priority  areas  of  focus.  More  stringent  legislaEon,  an  end  to  some  global   agreements,  changing  tax  rules  and  more  state  aid  are  all  in  the  pipeline.      
  • 22.     Speed  to  Scale     Greater  global  connecEvity,  growing  consumer  wealth  and  broader     reach  all  combine  to  accelerate  the  Eme  to  1bn  customers  and  a     $10bn  valuaEon  for  start-­‐ups  and  new  corporate  ventures  alike.        
  • 23.     Truth  and  Illusion   The  Internet  has  democraEsed  knowledge  and  changed  the  nature  of  who  we  trust   and  why.  As  confidence  in  large  organisaEons  declines  the  search  for  trustworthy   alternaEves  evolves.  What  we  believe  is  changing  how  we  behave.        
  • 24.     The  Human  Touch   In  a  world  of  global  and  digital  markeEng  and  consumpEon,     consumers  will  increasingly  favour  those  brands  that  can  offer  more     emoEonal  engagements,  and  specifically  human-­‐to-­‐human  contact.      
  • 25.     The  Rise  of  Machines     The  growth  in  the  intelligence  and  capabiliEes  of  machines  presents  both     a  threat  and  an  opportunity:  Greater  AI  and  automaEon  free  up  Eme,  but  also   threaten  jobs  -­‐  both  low  skilled  and  managerial  /  administraEve  roles.          
  • 26.     More  Informa9on  and  Insights   www.futureagenda.org     hIp://tmiltd.com/products/future-­‐agenda    hIp://www.slideshare.net/futureagenda2    
  • 27.     Future  Agenda  in  Numbers   The  first  Future  Agenda  programme  engaged  a  wide  range  of  views  in    25  countries.  Future  Agenda  2.0  doubled  the  face-­‐to-­‐face  interacEon     and  significantly  raised  online  sharing,  debate  and  discussion.   Future  Agenda  1.0     1  HOST   16  TOPICS   25  COUNTRIES   50  WORKSHOPS   1500  ORGANISATIONS   Future  Agenda  2.0     50  HOSTS   24  TOPICS   35  COUNTRIES   120  WORKSHOPS   5000  ORGANISATIONS  
  • 28.     Future  Agenda  2.0  Topics   The  recent  Future  Agenda  program  took  place  during  2015     and  addressed  24  key  topics  via  120  events  in  45  ciEes  in  35  countries     across  5  conEnents  –  all  conducted  in  partnership  with  50  core  hosts.   CiEes   EducaEon   Learning   Transport   CollaboraEon   Energy   Loyalty   Travel   Company   Faith   Payments   Water   ConnecEvity   Food   Privacy   Wealth   Currency   Government   Resources   Work   Ageing   Data   Health   Trade  
  • 29.     Future  Agenda   84  Brook  Street   London   W1K  5EH   +44  203  0088  141   futureagenda.org   The  world’s  leading  open  foresight  program   What  do  you  think?   Join  In  |  Add  your  views  into  the  mix     www.futureagenda.org