Over the past few months we have been running a number of workshops focused on helping organisations to identify and develop responses to emerging global and corporate risks. Working with companies, government agencies and advisory groups, we have been interrogating the insights from the Future Agenda programme to highlight those issues that provide the greatest potential challenge and also could have the most significant impact going forward. At a time when growing uncertainty and ambiguity are top of mind for many, we thought a brief summary of the most frequent topics being explored may be of wider interest.
In this summary we have therefore highlighted ten key global risks and ten key corporate risks that multiple organisations are seeing as high priority / impact for the next decade:
Ten Global Risks
• Accelerating displacement and the increase in migration
• Air pollution increasing in many urban environments
• A new world order driven by changing interests and relationships
• Broader cyber terrorism moving from the virtual to physical world
• Closing the inequality gap and balance equity and autonomy
• Flooded cities as the most visible impact of climate change
• Global pandemics stressing public health systems
• Key resource constraints driven by economic and political tensions
• Rising youth unemployment creating a lost generation
• Spiraling debt as a precursor to another major financial crisis
Ten Corporate Risks
• Continuous proof of loyalty to consumers required from brands
• Declining government influence as cities, networks and multinationals lead
• Full cost and having to account and pay for the true impact of activities
• Interconnected systems and the IoT increasing business vulnerability
• Managing data risk driving the need for greater security
• Regulation changing rapidly in its reach, its character and its focus
• Speed to scale accelerating and proving more disruptive impact
• Truth and illusion shifting view of what is credible and why
• The human touch being increasingly important in a digital world
• The rise of machines as AI and automation are both threat and opportunity
While not the same top issues for every organisation, these hopefully help to provide useful insight and context. More detailed information on many of these is available on the future agenda website www.futureagenda.org
Future Risk - Emerging global and corporate challenges 05 02 17
1.
Future
Risk
Key
Emerging
Global
and
Corporate
Challenges
5
February
2017
The
world’s
leading
open
foresight
program
2.
Future
Agenda
The
Future
Agenda
is
the
world’s
largest
open
foresight
program.
Run
as
a
global
dialogue
across
all
conEnents,
it
accesses
mulEple
views
of
the
next
decade
so
we
can
all
be
beIer
informed
and
so
focus
on
and
sEmulate
innovaEon.
3.
Future
Risks
Over
the
past
few
months
we
have
been
running
a
number
of
workshops
focused
on
helping
organisaEons
to
idenEfy
and
develop
responses
to
emerging
global
and
corporate
risks.
This
is
a
summary
of
the
top
10
in
each
group.
5.
Accelera9ng
Displacement
Climate
change,
conflict,
resource
shortages,
inequality
and
poliEcal
elites
unable
or
unwilling
to
bring
about
necessary
change
all
trigger
unprecedented
migraEon
to
the
North.
Over
the
next
50
years,
as
many
as
1
billion
people
could
be
on
the
move.
6.
Air
Pollu9on
Rising
air
polluEon
in
many
ciEes
is
killing
people
and
becomes
a
visible
catalyst
for
changing
mind-‐sets
and
policies
across
health,
energy,
transportaEon
and
urban
design.
7.
A
New
World
Order?
We
are
witnessing
the
transiEon
to
a
new
order:
New
naEonal
interests,
new
trading
routes,
new
products
/
services
are
all
emerging.
How
to
ensure
the
development
of
trade
in
this
environment
will
be
key
to
success.
8.
Broader
Cyber
Terrorism
Cyber
aIacks
move
from
the
virtual
world
to
the
physical
-‐
aIacking
planes,
uEliEes
and
industrial
systems.
Some
see
a
corresponding
slow
down
in
the
adopEon
of
sensors
and
wider
use
of
private
encrypEon
technologies.
9.
Closing
the
Inequality
Gap
One
of
the
challenges
facing
the
state
is
how
to
balance
equity
and
autonomy.
A
centralised
system
is
oUen
viewed
to
be
more
equitable
at
the
expense
of
autonomy.
10.
Flooded
Ci9es
The
vast
majority
of
our
ciEes
are
not
prepared
for
flooding.
Many
districts
and
households
can
no
longer
get
flood
insurance
and
are
in
jeopardy.
It’s
going
to
get
worse
before
it
gets
beIer.
11.
Global
Pandemics
We
are
likely
to
see
2
to
3
major
pandemics
start
in
regions
with
limited
public
healthcare
and
rapidly
spread
globally
and
so
demand
fast
response
12.
Key
Resource
Constraints
Economic,
physical
and
poliEcal
shortages
of
key
resources
increase
and
drive
increasing
tension
between
and
within
countries.
As
we
exceed
the
Earth’s
natural
thresholds,
food
and
water
receive
as
much
focus
as
oil
and
gas.
13.
Rising
Youth
Unemployment
With
unemployment
rates
over
50%
in
some
naEons,
access
to
work
is
a
rising
barrier.
Especially
across
North
Africa,
the
Middle
East
and
southern
Europe,
a
lost
generaEon
of
100m
young
people
fails
to
gain
from
global
growth.
14.
Spiraling
Debt
China's
debt
has
quadrupled
since
2007
and
global
debt
has
risen
40%.
If
economies
need
ever-‐larger
amounts
of
debt
to
grow,
and
deleveraging
is
increasingly
difficult,
we
may
need
to
learn
to
live
with
high
debt
or
face
another
major
financial
crisis.
16.
Con9nuous
Proof
of
Loyalty
Brands
have
to
consistently
demonstrate
their
loyalty
to
consumers
as
customer
mobility
and
switching
between
brands
increases.
Global,
regional
and
local
affiliaEons
blur
and
drive
wider
brand
consolidaEon.
17.
Declining
Government
Influence
NaEonal
governments’
ability
to
lead
change
comes
under
greater
pressure
from
both
above
and
below
-‐
mulEnaEonal
organisaEons
increasingly
set
the
rules
while
ciEzens
trust
and
support
local
and
network
based
acEons.
18.
Full
Cost
Increasing
transparency
of
society’s
reliance
on
nature,
intensify
requirements
for
business
to
pay
the
true
cost
of
the
resources
provided
by
‘natural
capital’
and
so
compensate
for
their
negaEve
impact
on
society.
19.
Interconnected
Systems
With
50bn
devices,
millions
of
sensors
and
the
roll-‐out
of
the
Internet
of
Things,
everything
that
can
be
connected
is.
While
many
gain
from
efficiencies,
others
are
increasingly
vulnerable
to
hacks
and
business
conEnuity
disrupEon.
20.
Managing
Data
Risk
In
an
increasingly
connected
world,
risks
also
rise.
ProtecEon
against
hacking,
cyber-‐aIacks,
fraud
and
counterfeiEng
all
drive
greater
security,
data
management
and
regulaEon
-‐
but
this
is
balanced
by
the
pull
of
convenience
and
data
sharing.
21.
Regula9on
Change
RegulaEon
is
changing
rapidly
in
its
reach,
its
character
as
well
as
in
its
priority
areas
of
focus.
More
stringent
legislaEon,
an
end
to
some
global
agreements,
changing
tax
rules
and
more
state
aid
are
all
in
the
pipeline.
22.
Speed
to
Scale
Greater
global
connecEvity,
growing
consumer
wealth
and
broader
reach
all
combine
to
accelerate
the
Eme
to
1bn
customers
and
a
$10bn
valuaEon
for
start-‐ups
and
new
corporate
ventures
alike.
23.
Truth
and
Illusion
The
Internet
has
democraEsed
knowledge
and
changed
the
nature
of
who
we
trust
and
why.
As
confidence
in
large
organisaEons
declines
the
search
for
trustworthy
alternaEves
evolves.
What
we
believe
is
changing
how
we
behave.
24.
The
Human
Touch
In
a
world
of
global
and
digital
markeEng
and
consumpEon,
consumers
will
increasingly
favour
those
brands
that
can
offer
more
emoEonal
engagements,
and
specifically
human-‐to-‐human
contact.
25.
The
Rise
of
Machines
The
growth
in
the
intelligence
and
capabiliEes
of
machines
presents
both
a
threat
and
an
opportunity:
Greater
AI
and
automaEon
free
up
Eme,
but
also
threaten
jobs
-‐
both
low
skilled
and
managerial
/
administraEve
roles.
26.
More
Informa9on
and
Insights
www.futureagenda.org
hIp://tmiltd.com/products/future-‐agenda
hIp://www.slideshare.net/futureagenda2
27.
Future
Agenda
in
Numbers
The
first
Future
Agenda
programme
engaged
a
wide
range
of
views
in
25
countries.
Future
Agenda
2.0
doubled
the
face-‐to-‐face
interacEon
and
significantly
raised
online
sharing,
debate
and
discussion.
Future
Agenda
1.0
1
HOST
16
TOPICS
25
COUNTRIES
50
WORKSHOPS
1500
ORGANISATIONS
Future
Agenda
2.0
50
HOSTS
24
TOPICS
35
COUNTRIES
120
WORKSHOPS
5000
ORGANISATIONS
28.
Future
Agenda
2.0
Topics
The
recent
Future
Agenda
program
took
place
during
2015
and
addressed
24
key
topics
via
120
events
in
45
ciEes
in
35
countries
across
5
conEnents
–
all
conducted
in
partnership
with
50
core
hosts.
CiEes
EducaEon
Learning
Transport
CollaboraEon
Energy
Loyalty
Travel
Company
Faith
Payments
Water
ConnecEvity
Food
Privacy
Wealth
Currency
Government
Resources
Work
Ageing
Data
Health
Trade
29.
Future
Agenda
84
Brook
Street
London
W1K
5EH
+44
203
0088
141
futureagenda.org
The
world’s
leading
open
foresight
program
What
do
you
think?
Join
In
|
Add
your
views
into
the
mix
www.futureagenda.org