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 The	
  Future	
  of	
  Ci-es	
  
	
  Summary	
  of	
  Insights	
  from	
  Mul3ple	
  Expert	
  Discussions	
  Around	
  the	
  World	
  
	
  February	
  2017	
  
The	
  world’s	
  leading	
  open	
  foresight	
  program	
  
Context	
  
Ci3es	
  are	
  where	
  innova3on	
  happens,	
  where	
  ideas	
  form	
  and	
  where	
  economic	
  
growth	
  largely	
  stems.	
  They	
  are	
  where	
  most	
  of	
  us	
  live	
  and	
  are	
  also	
  where	
  
significant	
  problems	
  can	
  emerge	
  as	
  well	
  as	
  where	
  challenges	
  can	
  be	
  magnified.	
  	
  
	
  
	
  Context	
  
Future	
  of	
  Ci-es	
  Discussions	
  
As	
  part	
  of	
  the	
  global	
  Future	
  Agenda	
  programme,	
  during	
  2015	
  and	
  2016	
  	
  
we	
  ran	
  several	
  ‘future	
  of	
  ci3es’	
  workshops	
  in	
  key	
  loca3ons.	
  Complemented	
  	
  
by	
  over	
  100	
  other	
  events,	
  these	
  have	
  provided	
  mul3ple	
  insights	
  on	
  the	
  topic.	
  
	
  
	
  Context	
  
Key	
  Global	
  Insights	
  
Although	
  some	
  points	
  were	
  specific	
  to	
  individual	
  loca3ons,	
  a	
  number	
  of	
  	
  
issues	
  were	
  unified	
  across	
  all	
  our	
  discussions.	
  We	
  found	
  three	
  common	
  
challenges,	
  three	
  shared	
  future	
  ambi3ons	
  and	
  three	
  emerging	
  concerns.	
  	
  
Common	
  
Challenges	
  
Managing	
  
Migra3on	
  
Countering	
  
Inequality	
  
Scaling	
  
Sustainably	
  
Shared	
  
Ambi-ons	
  
Healthy	
  	
  
Ci3es	
  
Accessible	
  	
  
Ci3es	
  
Intelligent	
  	
  
Ci3es	
  
Emerging	
  
Concerns	
  
Safe	
  
Ci3es	
  
Resilient	
  	
  
Ci3es	
  
Collabora3ve	
  	
  
Compe33on	
  
	
  
	
  Summary	
  
Purpose	
  of	
  Summary	
  
Ahead	
  of	
  more	
  workshops	
  and	
  the	
  publica3on	
  of	
  a	
  detailed	
  report,	
  this	
  
document	
  provides	
  an	
  overview	
  of	
  what	
  we	
  heard	
  from	
  the	
  expert	
  discussions	
  
undertaken	
  around	
  the	
  world	
  during	
  2015/16.	
  It	
  has	
  three	
  objec3ves.	
  	
  
Reflect	
  
•  To	
  reflect	
  what	
  informed	
  people	
  in	
  varied	
  countries	
  think	
  
is	
  most	
  important	
  
Link	
  
•  To	
  link	
  these	
  thoughts	
  to	
  some	
  of	
  the	
  research	
  that	
  has	
  
already	
  been	
  done	
  
Prompt	
  
•  To	
  prompt	
  further	
  debate	
  on	
  some	
  gaps	
  and	
  issues	
  that	
  
seem	
  as	
  yet	
  unresolved	
  
	
  
	
  Summary	
  
Common	
  Challenges	
  
Across	
  our	
  discussions	
  a	
  number	
  of	
  issues	
  were	
  raised	
  repeatedly	
  that	
  	
  
focused	
  on	
  three	
  significant,	
  inter-­‐related	
  concerns	
  for	
  the	
  majority.	
  	
  
These	
  are	
  common	
  challenges	
  impac3ng	
  many	
  of	
  the	
  world’s	
  ci3es.	
  
Common	
  
Challanges	
  
Managing	
  
Migra-on	
  
Countering	
  
Inequality	
  
Sustainable	
  
Scaling	
  
	
  
	
  
Managing	
  Migra-on	
  
Growing	
  migra3on	
  to	
  ci3es	
  in	
  most	
  regions	
  is	
  set	
  to	
  be	
  one	
  of	
  the	
  defining	
  
shiZs	
  taking	
  place	
  for	
  the	
  rest	
  of	
  the	
  century.	
  Over	
  the	
  next	
  30	
  years	
  the	
  urban	
  
popula3on	
  in	
  the	
  developing	
  world	
  is	
  set	
  to	
  grow	
  by	
  an	
  extra	
  2	
  billion.	
  	
  
	
  
	
  Managing	
  Migra1on	
  
Pace	
  of	
  Change	
  
The	
  scale	
  of	
  migra3on	
  is	
  driving	
  huge	
  social,	
  cultural	
  and	
  poli3cal	
  change:	
  	
  
some	
  governments	
  have	
  become	
  doub^ul	
  of	
  their	
  ability	
  to	
  cope.	
  Many	
  have	
  
concluded	
  that	
  they	
  ought	
  to	
  slow	
  the	
  process	
  down	
  or	
  disperse	
  the	
  problem.	
  	
  
	
  
	
  Managing	
  Migra1on	
  
Posi-ve	
  Migra-on	
  
Many	
  economists	
  and	
  some	
  poli3cians	
  agree	
  that,	
  especially	
  for	
  countries	
  	
  
with	
  ageing	
  popula3ons,	
  immigra3on	
  has	
  a	
  posi3ve	
  economic	
  impact.	
  	
  
But	
  only	
  a	
  few	
  countries	
  are	
  really	
  open	
  about	
  the	
  benefits.	
  	
  	
  
	
  
	
  Managing	
  Migra1on	
  
Refugee	
  Influx	
  	
  
The	
  inflow	
  of	
  refugees	
  from	
  Syria	
  to	
  Lebanon	
  has	
  passed	
  1.5m.	
  Added	
  to	
  the	
  
500,000	
  Pales3nian	
  refugees	
  already	
  in	
  the	
  country,	
  within	
  a	
  total	
  na3onal	
  
popula3on	
  of	
  only	
  6m	
  there	
  is	
  now	
  1	
  refugee	
  for	
  every	
  2	
  Lebanese	
  na3onals.	
  	
  
	
  
	
  Managing	
  Migra1on	
  
Internal	
  Migra-on	
  
In	
  many	
  na3ons	
  internal	
  migra3on	
  completely	
  dwarfs	
  interna3onal	
  migra3on.	
  
32	
  people	
  per	
  hour	
  are	
  moving	
  into	
  Shanghai,	
  39	
  into	
  Kinshasa	
  and	
  Jakarta,	
  	
  
42	
  into	
  Mumbai	
  and	
  Karachi,	
  50	
  into	
  Dhaka	
  and	
  58	
  into	
  Lagos.	
  
	
  
	
  Managing	
  Migra1on	
  
Informal	
  Urbaniza-on	
  
A	
  third	
  of	
  the	
  global	
  urban	
  popula3on,	
  and	
  most	
  of	
  the	
  migrants,	
  now	
  live	
  in	
  
unplanned	
  slums,	
  gheeos	
  and	
  townships	
  which	
  typically	
  suffer	
  from	
  poor	
  
quality,	
  overcrowded	
  housing	
  and	
  restricted	
  access	
  to	
  water	
  and	
  electricity.	
  
	
  
	
  Managing	
  Migra1on	
  
Coping	
  Strategies	
  
Ci3es	
  are	
  being	
  forced	
  to	
  rethink	
  how	
  they	
  plan	
  their	
  infrastructure	
  and	
  
services	
  to	
  cope	
  with	
  fast-­‐rising	
  and	
  yet	
  some3mes	
  sta3s3cally	
  invisible	
  
popula3ons.	
  In	
  some,	
  policies	
  are	
  trying	
  to	
  halt	
  rural-­‐urban	
  migra3on.	
  	
  
	
  
	
  Managing	
  Migra1on	
  
Countering	
  Inequality	
  
Widening	
  differences	
  in	
  access	
  to	
  housing,	
  transport,	
  sanita3on,	
  healthcare,	
  
educa3on	
  and	
  jobs	
  will	
  con3nue	
  to	
  extend	
  the	
  gap	
  between	
  rich	
  and	
  poor.	
  
Inequality	
  is	
  rising	
  in	
  many	
  ci3es	
  independent	
  of	
  the	
  numbers	
  of	
  new	
  arrivals.	
  	
  
	
  
	
  Countering	
  Inequality	
  
Inequality	
  a	
  Mainstream	
  Issue	
  
Inequality	
  has	
  become	
  a	
  mainstream	
  poli3cal	
  issue	
  as	
  par3es	
  argue	
  about	
  the	
  
causes	
  as	
  well	
  as	
  the	
  limits	
  that	
  society	
  can	
  accommodate.	
  Almost	
  all	
  of	
  the	
  
problems	
  at	
  the	
  boeom	
  of	
  the	
  social	
  ladder	
  are	
  greater	
  in	
  unequal	
  socie3es.	
  
	
  
	
  Countering	
  Inequality	
  
A	
  Rich	
  Country	
  Problem	
  
Urban	
  inequality	
  is	
  not	
  simply	
  a	
  developing	
  world	
  problem:	
  The	
  US	
  has	
  one	
  of	
  
the	
  highest	
  rates	
  of	
  child	
  poverty	
  while	
  New	
  York,	
  Los	
  Angeles	
  and	
  London	
  all	
  
have	
  high	
  GINI	
  coefficients	
  -­‐	
  the	
  most	
  commonly	
  used	
  measure	
  of	
  inequality.	
  	
  
	
  
	
  Countering	
  Inequality	
  
The	
  Influence	
  /	
  Need	
  Gap	
  	
  
Many	
  of	
  the	
  people	
  dependent	
  on	
  the	
  provisions	
  of	
  government	
  are	
  not	
  those	
  
who	
  pay	
  or	
  influence	
  decisions.	
  As	
  such,	
  as	
  the	
  inequality	
  gap	
  grows,	
  those	
  
making	
  decisions	
  are	
  increasingly	
  out	
  of	
  touch	
  with	
  society’s	
  real	
  needs.	
  	
  
	
  
	
  Countering	
  Inequality	
  
The	
  Top	
  1%	
  	
  
The	
  wealthy	
  have	
  a	
  dispropor3onate	
  ability	
  to	
  influence	
  government	
  and	
  
therefore	
  urban	
  design.	
  Consequently	
  the	
  shape	
  and	
  development	
  of	
  ci3es	
  	
  
can	
  oZen	
  be	
  the	
  result	
  of	
  the	
  needs	
  of	
  the	
  elite	
  rather	
  than	
  the	
  majority.	
  	
  
	
  
	
  Countering	
  Inequality	
  
AMrac-ng	
  the	
  Highly	
  Skilled	
  
Aerac3ng	
  highly	
  skilled	
  workers	
  to	
  a	
  city	
  oZen	
  leads	
  to	
  improvement	
  in	
  	
  
local	
  ameni3es.	
  But	
  bringing	
  highly	
  skilled	
  workers	
  to	
  an	
  area	
  is	
  not	
  	
  
enough	
  to	
  guarantee	
  high	
  wages;	
  the	
  right	
  firms	
  must	
  come	
  too.	
  
	
  
	
  Countering	
  Inequality	
  
Designing	
  a	
  Fairer	
  City	
  	
  
Increasing	
  social	
  housing	
  alongside	
  limi3ng	
  popula3on	
  density	
  and	
  crea3ng	
  
beeer	
  public	
  spaces	
  can	
  make	
  a	
  difference.	
  Providing	
  wider	
  access	
  to	
  basic	
  
services	
  such	
  as	
  banking	
  and	
  healthcare	
  also	
  helps	
  counter	
  inequality.	
  	
  	
  
	
  
	
  Countering	
  Inequality	
  
Joined	
  Up	
  Responses	
  
Given	
  the	
  inter-­‐rela3onships	
  between	
  financial	
  inequality	
  and	
  unequal	
  access	
  
to	
  transport,	
  healthcare,	
  educa3on	
  and	
  the	
  Internet,	
  urban	
  policy	
  has	
  to	
  be	
  
integrated	
  across	
  mul3ple	
  silos.	
  This	
  demands	
  far	
  greater	
  joined	
  up	
  ac3on.	
  	
  
	
  
	
  Countering	
  Inequality	
  
Sustainable	
  Scaling	
  
Urban	
  seelements	
  will	
  increase	
  to	
  more	
  than	
  3m	
  km2	
  by	
  2050:	
  Never	
  before	
  
have	
  we	
  seen	
  such	
  fast	
  scaling	
  of	
  urban	
  environments.	
  If	
  we	
  are	
  to	
  avoid	
  
replica3ng	
  the	
  errors	
  of	
  the	
  past,	
  then	
  ci3es	
  must	
  be	
  planned	
  sustainably.	
  	
  
	
  
	
  Sustainable	
  Scaling	
  
Disconnected	
  Sprawl	
  
Many	
  of	
  the	
  world’s	
  fastest	
  growing	
  ci3es	
  are	
  becoming	
  looser	
  and	
  	
  
less	
  connected	
  at	
  the	
  edges.	
  Sprawl	
  is	
  significantly	
  increasing	
  	
  
urban	
  footprints,	
  decreasing	
  density	
  and	
  reducing	
  open	
  space.	
  
	
  
	
  Sustainable	
  Scaling	
  
Africa	
  Growth	
  
Africa	
  is	
  the	
  world’s	
  fastest	
  urbanising	
  con3nent.	
  Some	
  ci3es	
  are	
  expanding	
  	
  
at	
  rates	
  of	
  more	
  than	
  7%	
  per	
  year.	
  Unsurprisingly	
  many	
  governments	
  	
  
find	
  it	
  difficult	
  to	
  provide	
  residents	
  with	
  even	
  the	
  most	
  basic	
  services.	
  	
  
	
  
	
  Sustainable	
  Scaling	
  
Planning	
  Ahead	
  
Retrofimng	
  roads,	
  u3li3es	
  and	
  services	
  is	
  far	
  more	
  expensive	
  than	
  planning	
  for	
  
them	
  in	
  advance:	
  fast-­‐growing	
  ci3es	
  need	
  to	
  establish	
  expansion	
  areas	
  that	
  can	
  
accommodate	
  growth,	
  plan	
  and	
  secure	
  the	
  rights	
  for	
  roads	
  and	
  public	
  spaces.	
  	
  
	
  
	
  Sustainable	
  Scaling	
  
Dense	
  Ci-es	
  
Experts	
  suggest	
  that	
  densely	
  populated,	
  efficient	
  ci3es	
  like	
  Paris	
  and	
  	
  
Hong	
  Kong	
  are	
  the	
  poten3al	
  blueprints	
  for	
  sustainable	
  places	
  to	
  live;	
  much	
  	
  
beeer	
  than	
  the	
  distributed	
  sprawls	
  such	
  as	
  Los	
  Angeles	
  and	
  Mexico	
  City.	
  	
  
	
  
	
  Sustainable	
  Scaling	
  
Satellite	
  Ci-es	
  
In	
  many	
  regions	
  the	
  growth	
  of	
  satellite	
  ci3es	
  and	
  networks	
  of	
  midi-­‐ci3es	
  is	
  	
  
seen	
  as	
  a	
  preferred	
  route	
  to	
  more	
  singular	
  mega-­‐city	
  development.	
  	
  
Connected	
  by	
  fast	
  infrastructure,	
  these	
  can	
  act	
  collec3vely	
  economically.	
  	
  
	
  
	
  Sustainable	
  Scaling	
  
Mega-­‐City	
  Master-­‐Plans	
  
Several	
  metropolises	
  in	
  Asia	
  and	
  the	
  Middle	
  East	
  are	
  effec3vely	
  being	
  built	
  
from	
  scratch,	
  so	
  there	
  is	
  an	
  opportunity	
  to	
  get	
  scaling	
  right	
  from	
  the	
  start.	
  To	
  
avoid	
  more	
  sprawl,	
  they	
  need	
  shared,	
  long-­‐term	
  and	
  detailed	
  master	
  plans.	
  	
  
	
  
	
  Sustainable	
  Scaling	
  
Shared	
  Ambi-ons	
  
In	
  exploring	
  how	
  to	
  improve	
  their	
  urban	
  environments	
  and	
  the	
  lives	
  of	
  	
  
ci3zens,	
  many	
  ci3es	
  share	
  a	
  number	
  of	
  common	
  ambi3ons	
  for	
  the	
  future.	
  
Three	
  inter-­‐related	
  goals	
  were	
  highlighted	
  across	
  most	
  of	
  our	
  discussions.	
  
Shared	
  
Ambi-ons	
  
Healthy	
  
Ci3es	
  
Accessible	
  
Ci3es	
  
Intelligent	
  
Ci3es	
  
	
  
	
  
Healthy	
  Ci-es	
  
A	
  common	
  core	
  aim	
  is	
  to	
  reduce	
  pollu3on,	
  especially	
  air	
  pollu3on,	
  	
  
improve	
  access	
  to	
  clean	
  water,	
  and	
  install	
  beeer	
  sanita3on	
  and	
  	
  
healthcare	
  provision	
  so	
  that	
  fewer	
  die	
  from	
  preventable	
  causes.	
  	
  
	
  
	
  Healthy	
  Ci1es	
  
Air	
  Pollu-on	
  
The	
  most	
  detec3ble	
  health	
  threat	
  to	
  ci3es	
  today	
  is	
  declining	
  air	
  quality.	
  	
  
Delhi’s	
  air	
  is	
  15	
  3mes	
  more	
  polluted	
  than	
  the	
  WHO	
  safe	
  maximum.	
  Air	
  
pollu3on	
  in	
  China	
  kills	
  about	
  4,000	
  people	
  every	
  day	
  –	
  17%	
  of	
  all	
  deaths.	
  	
  
	
  
	
  Healthy	
  Ci1es	
  
Rich	
  Country	
  Air	
  Quality	
  
Some	
  of	
  the	
  most	
  toxic	
  air	
  today	
  is	
  found	
  in	
  the	
  UAE.	
  	
  
Although	
  air	
  quality	
  is	
  gradually	
  improving	
  in	
  the	
  US,	
  in	
  Europe	
  	
  
over	
  460,000	
  people	
  a	
  year	
  die	
  prematurely	
  because	
  of	
  air	
  pollu3on.	
  	
  
	
  
	
  Healthy	
  Ci1es	
  
C40	
  Ac-on	
  
Led	
  by	
  the	
  mayors	
  of	
  C40	
  ci3es	
  such	
  as	
  Paris	
  and	
  Mexico	
  City	
  there	
  is	
  a	
  
concerted	
  effort	
  underway	
  to	
  reduce	
  emissions.	
  By	
  introducing	
  bans	
  for	
  diesel	
  
and	
  incen3ves	
  for	
  electric	
  vehicles	
  by	
  2025,	
  they	
  aim	
  to	
  change	
  the	
  market.	
  	
  
	
  
	
  Healthy	
  Ci1es	
  
Eco	
  Civilisa-on	
  
Poten3ally	
  most	
  significant	
  on	
  a	
  global	
  scale	
  is	
  China’s	
  Eco-­‐Civiliza3on	
  ini3a3ve	
  
-­‐	
  many	
  see	
  this	
  as	
  a	
  game-­‐changer.	
  China	
  will	
  take	
  the	
  lead	
  on	
  climate	
  change	
  
and	
  reducing	
  urban	
  air	
  pollu3on	
  and	
  so	
  set	
  the	
  standards	
  for	
  others.	
  	
  
	
  
	
  Healthy	
  Ci1es	
  
Polluted	
  Water	
  
Water	
  pollu3on	
  is	
  another	
  major	
  challenge	
  to	
  healthy	
  city	
  living.	
  Poorly	
  treated	
  
sewage	
  can	
  be	
  low	
  in	
  dissolved	
  oxygen	
  and	
  high	
  in	
  pollutants.	
  Groundwater	
  
can	
  be	
  contaminated	
  from	
  garbage	
  dumps,	
  toxic	
  waste	
  and	
  chemical	
  storage.	
  
	
  
	
  Healthy	
  Ci1es	
  
Known	
  Solu-ons	
  
Many	
  of	
  the	
  solu3ons	
  lie	
  not	
  only	
  in	
  cleaning	
  up	
  water	
  supplies	
  but	
  also	
  in	
  
encouraging	
  industry	
  and	
  ci3zens	
  to	
  use	
  more	
  recycled	
  water.	
  Simple,	
  proven	
  
ac3ons	
  can	
  transform	
  the	
  water	
  supply	
  and	
  massively	
  reduce	
  contamina3on.	
  	
  
	
  
	
  Healthy	
  Ci1es	
  
Waste	
  Management	
  
Dhaka,	
  Delhi	
  and	
  Port-­‐au-­‐Prince	
  are	
  three	
  of	
  the	
  worst	
  for	
  poor	
  waste	
  
management.	
  Globally	
  the	
  standard	
  bearers	
  for	
  minimum	
  landfill	
  include	
  
Switzerland	
  and	
  San	
  Francisco.	
  Regula3on	
  drives	
  behavioural	
  change.	
  	
  
	
  
	
  Healthy	
  Ci1es	
  
Urban	
  Obesity	
  
Mass	
  urbanisa3on,	
  reduced	
  ac3vity	
  and	
  poor	
  diet	
  are	
  all	
  accelera3ng	
  obesity.	
  
Across	
  India	
  and	
  Africa	
  migra3on	
  from	
  rural	
  to	
  urban	
  areas	
  is	
  associated	
  with	
  
an	
  increase	
  in	
  obesity	
  and	
  is	
  a	
  dispropor3onate	
  burden	
  on	
  the	
  poor.	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  
	
  
	
  Healthy	
  Ci1es	
  
Protec-ng	
  Public	
  Spaces	
  
Urban	
  planning	
  has	
  a	
  role	
  to	
  play.	
  Designing	
  ci3es	
  to	
  encourage	
  more	
  	
  
outdoor	
  ac3vity	
  is	
  one	
  area	
  of	
  observable	
  ac3vity	
  as	
  governments	
  are	
  
pressured	
  to	
  ensure	
  that	
  public	
  spaces	
  are	
  created	
  and	
  retained.	
  	
  
	
  
	
  Healthy	
  Ci1es	
  
Agreed	
  Benefits	
  
Encouraging	
  a	
  healthier	
  lifestyle	
  can	
  improve	
  urban	
  design	
  and	
  consequently	
  
result	
  in	
  reduced	
  pressure	
  on	
  healthcare,	
  beeer	
  community	
  resilience,	
  and	
  
overall	
  offer	
  improved	
  life	
  expectancy.	
  No	
  new	
  technologies	
  are	
  required.	
  	
  
	
  
	
  Healthy	
  Ci1es	
  
Accessible	
  Ci-es	
  
A	
  key	
  ambi3on	
  for	
  many	
  is	
  to	
  plan	
  ci3es	
  for	
  people	
  not	
  cars,	
  providing	
  	
  
beeer	
  public	
  transport,	
  new	
  cycle	
  ways	
  and	
  crea3ng	
  more	
  walkable	
  areas,	
  
while	
  also	
  encouraging	
  more	
  integra3on	
  rather	
  than	
  segrega3on.	
  	
  
	
  
	
  Accessible	
  Ci1es	
  
People	
  Not	
  Cars	
  
We	
  live	
  in	
  a	
  world	
  where	
  the	
  majority	
  of	
  our	
  ci3es	
  have	
  been	
  designed	
  
for	
  cars	
  first	
  and	
  people	
  second.	
  Many	
  believe	
  that	
  urban	
  life	
  could	
  be	
  	
  
beeer	
  without	
  cars	
  –	
  or	
  certainly	
  without	
  so	
  many	
  of	
  them.	
  	
  
	
  
	
  Accessible	
  Ci1es	
  
BeMer	
  Op-ons	
  
Walking	
  or	
  riding	
  a	
  bike	
  is	
  healthier	
  and	
  safer	
  and	
  public	
  transport	
  is	
  frequently	
  
cheaper	
  than	
  the	
  car.	
  Copenhagen	
  and	
  Amsterdam,	
  oZen	
  seen	
  as	
  Europe’s	
  
most	
  sustainable	
  ci3es,	
  are	
  leaders	
  in	
  suppor3ng	
  non-­‐motorized	
  transport.	
  
	
  
	
  Accessible	
  Ci1es	
  
Pro	
  Cycle	
  and	
  Pedestrian	
  
Ci3es	
  are	
  shiZing	
  their	
  aeen3on	
  to	
  making	
  it	
  easier	
  to	
  walk,	
  cycle	
  and	
  play	
  on	
  
their	
  streets.	
  Central	
  roads	
  are	
  being	
  converted	
  into	
  pedestrian	
  promenades,	
  
others	
  flanked	
  with	
  cycle	
  lanes	
  and	
  speed	
  limits	
  are	
  being	
  slashed.	
  	
  
	
  
	
  Accessible	
  Ci1es	
  
Peak	
  Car?	
  
For	
  most	
  conurba3ons	
  today,	
  the	
  future	
  threatens	
  to	
  be	
  one	
  with	
  more	
  cars.	
  	
  
In	
  many	
  ci3es	
  the	
  lack	
  of	
  good	
  public	
  transport,	
  coupled	
  with	
  rising	
  incomes	
  	
  
in	
  some	
  places,	
  is	
  pushing	
  up	
  the	
  use	
  of	
  private	
  vehicles	
  but	
  to	
  what	
  limit?	
  	
  
	
  
	
  Accessible	
  Ci1es	
  
More	
  Public	
  Transport	
  
A	
  good	
  public	
  transport	
  system	
  makes	
  a	
  city	
  more	
  accessible	
  and	
  efficient.	
  	
  
By	
  2030,	
  80%	
  of	
  Singapore	
  households	
  will	
  be	
  within	
  a	
  10-­‐minute	
  walk	
  of	
  a	
  
train	
  sta3on	
  -­‐	
  75%	
  of	
  journeys	
  will	
  be	
  on	
  public	
  systems.	
  	
  	
  
	
  
	
  Accessible	
  Ci1es	
  
Public	
  Private	
  Partnerships	
  
In	
  Medellin,	
  Colombia,	
  the	
  government	
  is	
  increasingly	
  collabora3ng	
  	
  
with	
  business	
  to	
  improve	
  the	
  ins3tu3onal	
  fabric	
  as	
  well	
  as	
  core	
  
	
  infrastructure	
  -­‐	
  through	
  the	
  building	
  of	
  new	
  cable	
  cars	
  and	
  metros.	
  	
  
	
  
	
  Accessible	
  Ci1es	
  
Walkable	
  Ci-es	
  
Walkable	
  ci3es	
  are	
  safer,	
  more	
  aerac3ve,	
  more	
  inclusive	
  and	
  easier	
  to	
  govern.	
  
High	
  profile	
  developments	
  like	
  the	
  Cheonggyecheon	
  River	
  in	
  Seoul	
  have	
  
transformed	
  walkability	
  …	
  but	
  small	
  changes	
  can	
  make	
  a	
  difference	
  too.	
  
	
  
	
  Accessible	
  Ci1es	
  
Local	
  Clusters	
  
Local	
  hubs	
  for	
  those	
  in	
  knowledge-­‐based	
  sectors	
  has	
  long	
  been	
  proposed	
  as	
  a	
  
means	
  of	
  minimising	
  the	
  daily	
  commute.	
  ‘Work,	
  live,	
  play’	
  clusters	
  in	
  ci3es	
  
allow	
  residents	
  to	
  access	
  different	
  ac3vi3es	
  all	
  embedded	
  in	
  one	
  area.	
  	
  
	
  
	
  Accessible	
  Ci1es	
  
Ci-es	
  for	
  Ageing	
  
In	
  developed	
  countries	
  80%	
  of	
  older	
  people	
  are	
  expected	
  to	
  live	
  in	
  ci3es	
  	
  
by	
  2050.	
  They	
  need	
  con3nue	
  to	
  play	
  an	
  ac3ve	
  role	
  in	
  the	
  community	
  and	
  	
  
not	
  become	
  isolated.	
  We	
  need	
  integra3on	
  rather	
  than	
  segrega3on.	
  
	
  
	
  Accessible	
  Ci1es	
  
Increasing	
  Accessibility	
  
Many	
  planning	
  challenges	
  in	
  ci3es	
  without	
  extensive	
  public	
  transport	
  	
  
centre	
  on	
  using	
  beeer	
  low-­‐cost	
  systems	
  to	
  improve	
  access	
  -­‐	
  while	
  not	
  
constraining	
  broader	
  movement	
  of	
  people	
  and	
  goods	
  by	
  vehicles.	
  	
  
	
  
	
  Accessible	
  Ci1es	
  
Intelligent	
  Ci-es	
  
Increasingly	
  equipped	
  with	
  digital	
  technologies	
  and	
  ‘big	
  data’	
  many	
  	
  
ci3es	
  are	
  now	
  making	
  buildings,	
  infrastructure	
  and	
  even	
  ci3zens	
  	
  
smarter	
  -­‐	
  and	
  therefore	
  making	
  themselves	
  more	
  “intelligent”.	
  	
  
	
  
	
  Intelligent	
  Ci1es	
  
Smart	
  City	
  Ideal	
  
Ideally,	
  sensors	
  integrate	
  with	
  real-­‐3me	
  monitoring	
  systems,	
  collect	
  	
  
data	
  from	
  ci3zens	
  and	
  devices	
  that	
  is	
  then	
  processed	
  and	
  analyzed.	
  	
  
The	
  informa3on	
  and	
  knowledge	
  gathered	
  are	
  used	
  to	
  tackle	
  inefficiency.	
  	
  
	
  
	
  Intelligent	
  Ci1es	
  
Smart	
  City	
  India	
  
India	
  is	
  inves3ng	
  $15bn	
  to	
  develop	
  100	
  smart	
  ci3es,	
  aiming	
  to	
  improve	
  	
  
basic	
  infrastructure	
  by	
  providing	
  good	
  water	
  and	
  power	
  supplies	
  as	
  well	
  	
  
as	
  beeer	
  public	
  transport	
  and	
  also	
  significantly	
  enhance	
  IT	
  connec3vity.	
  	
  
	
  
	
  Intelligent	
  Ci1es	
  
Corporate	
  Partnerships	
  
In	
  recent	
  years	
  we	
  have	
  seen	
  progress	
  on	
  the	
  smart	
  ci3es	
  ambi3on	
  
	
  –	
  much	
  of	
  which	
  has	
  been	
  focused	
  on	
  collabora3on	
  with	
  some	
  key	
  
mul3na3onals	
  to	
  create	
  municipal	
  /	
  corporate	
  partnerships.	
  
	
  
	
  Intelligent	
  Ci1es	
  
IBM	
  |	
  Rio	
  de	
  Janeiro	
  
IBM’s	
  Smarter	
  Ci3es	
  /	
  Smarter	
  Planet	
  ini3a3ve	
  has	
  been	
  embraced	
  	
  
by	
  mayors	
  in	
  many	
  key	
  ci3es:	
  Massive	
  sensor	
  networks,	
  cloud-­‐based	
  
	
  storage	
  and	
  predic3ve	
  analy3cs	
  have	
  all	
  been	
  coming	
  to	
  the	
  fore.	
  
	
  
	
  Intelligent	
  Ci1es	
  
Intel	
  |	
  San	
  Jose	
  
Intel’s	
  collabora3on	
  with	
  the	
  city	
  of	
  San	
  Jose	
  is	
  a	
  demonstrator	
  of	
  
the	
  capability	
  of	
  the	
  ‘Internet	
  of	
  Things’	
  focuses	
  on	
  improving	
  air	
  quality,	
  
	
  noise	
  pollu3on	
  and	
  traffic	
  flows	
  via	
  a	
  more	
  connected	
  infrastructure.	
  
	
  
	
  Intelligent	
  Ci1es	
  
Siemens	
  |	
  Masdar	
  
Although	
  behind	
  schedule,	
  Masdar	
  is	
  s3ll	
  aiming	
  to	
  be	
  one	
  of	
  the	
  most	
  
sustainable	
  and	
  smart	
  ci3es	
  on	
  the	
  planet.	
  Key	
  partnerships	
  with	
  Siemens	
  	
  
are	
  focused	
  on	
  opportuni3es	
  such	
  as	
  more	
  effec3ve,	
  low	
  energy	
  systems.	
  
	
  
	
  Intelligent	
  Ci1es	
  
Cisco	
  |	
  Songdo	
  
Songdo	
  in	
  Korea	
  has	
  embraced	
  Cisco’s	
  ‘Smart+Connected’	
  view	
  of	
  the	
  city.	
  
Ubiquitous	
  data	
  sharing,	
  automated	
  buildings,	
  high-­‐speed	
  networks	
  	
  
and	
  pervasive	
  interac3on	
  are	
  all	
  part	
  of	
  the	
  connected	
  blueprint.	
  
	
  
	
  Intelligent	
  Ci1es	
  
Realis-c	
  Expecta-ons	
  
Some	
  see	
  that	
  the	
  smart	
  city	
  is	
  not	
  a	
  seamless	
  web	
  of	
  integrated	
  and	
  joined-­‐up	
  
technologies	
  and	
  probably	
  never	
  will	
  be.	
  Smart	
  ci3es	
  could	
  be	
  just	
  as	
  much	
  
about	
  beeer	
  governance	
  and	
  urban	
  planning	
  than	
  about	
  integrated	
  machines.	
  	
  
	
  
	
  Intelligent	
  Ci1es	
  
Smartphone	
  Impact	
  
Digital	
  pla^orms	
  can	
  bring	
  people	
  together	
  and	
  collaborate	
  to	
  ‘fix’	
  problems	
  
and	
  so	
  create	
  a	
  more	
  efficient	
  system.	
  Smartphones	
  in	
  par3cular	
  allow	
  us	
  to	
  
interact	
  with	
  and	
  beeer	
  understand	
  the	
  environments	
  within	
  which	
  we	
  inhabit.	
  	
  
	
  
	
  Intelligent	
  Ci1es	
  
London	
  –	
  Open	
  Data	
  	
  
Once	
  informa3on	
  is	
  free	
  and	
  open,	
  then	
  different	
  par3es	
  and	
  interests	
  can	
  
collaborate.	
  London	
  has	
  more	
  open	
  public	
  data	
  sets	
  than	
  any	
  other	
  European	
  
city.	
  It	
  is	
  a	
  leading	
  centre	
  for	
  more	
  intelligent	
  use	
  of	
  shared	
  informa3on.	
  
	
  
	
  Intelligent	
  Ci1es	
  
New	
  York	
  –	
  Engaged	
  Ci-zens	
  
As	
  the	
  pioneer	
  in	
  providing	
  open	
  connec3vity	
  for	
  all,	
  New	
  York	
  has	
  been	
  
a	
  hot-­‐spot	
  for	
  the	
  development	
  of	
  ci3zen	
  based	
  networks:	
  The	
  Bryant	
  
Park	
  Restora3on	
  Corpora3on	
  was	
  one	
  of	
  the	
  first	
  catalysts	
  for	
  change.	
  
	
  
	
  Intelligent	
  Ci1es	
  
Big	
  Data	
  Analysis	
  
The	
  LAPD’s	
  algorithms	
  analyse	
  mul3ple	
  data	
  streams	
  to	
  iden3fy	
  areas	
  with	
  	
  
high	
  current	
  probabili3es	
  for	
  certain	
  types	
  of	
  crime.	
  Insights	
  are	
  streamed	
  	
  
into	
  patrol	
  cars	
  who	
  proac3vely	
  go	
  to	
  these	
  loca3ons	
  –	
  and	
  so	
  prevent	
  crime.	
  	
  
	
  
	
  Intelligent	
  Ci1es	
  
Responsive	
  Ci-es	
  
Pervasive	
  digital	
  systems	
  that	
  layer	
  some	
  ci3es	
  are	
  already	
  transforming	
  	
  
urban	
  life	
  for	
  some.	
  Once	
  this	
  informa3on	
  is	
  beeer	
  shared	
  between	
  planners,	
  
designers	
  and	
  the	
  public,	
  then	
  we	
  can	
  maybe	
  collec3vely	
  shape	
  future	
  ci3es.	
  
	
  
	
  Intelligent	
  Ci1es	
  
Smarter	
  Ci-zens	
  
By	
  sharing	
  more	
  and	
  beeer	
  informa3on	
  in	
  engaging	
  more	
  with	
  	
  
the	
  people	
  who	
  live	
  in	
  them,	
  ci3es	
  and	
  their	
  ci3zens	
  become	
  smarter	
  	
  
and	
  the	
  overall	
  intelligence	
  of	
  the	
  urban	
  environment	
  itself	
  increases.	
  	
  
	
  
	
  Intelligent	
  Ci1es	
  
Emerging	
  Concerns	
  
Looking	
  forward,	
  many	
  see	
  three	
  themes	
  that	
  are	
  emerging	
  and	
  increasingly	
  
significant	
  concerns	
  for	
  ci3es.	
  Although	
  not	
  yet	
  universal,	
  they	
  are	
  major	
  	
  
shiZs	
  that	
  are	
  demanding	
  new	
  thinking	
  about	
  urban	
  design	
  and	
  policy.	
  
Emerging	
  
Concerns	
  
Safe	
  
Ci3es	
  
Resilient	
  
Ci3es	
  
Collabora3ve	
  
Compe--on	
  
	
  
	
  
Safe	
  Ci-es	
  
Whether	
  to	
  prevent	
  terrorism,	
  provide	
  defense	
  against	
  more	
  infrastructure-­‐
focused	
  cyber	
  aeacks	
  or	
  dealing	
  with	
  increased	
  inequality,	
  the	
  need	
  for	
  	
  
urban	
  environments	
  to	
  beeer	
  protect	
  their	
  ci3zens	
  is	
  accelera3ng.	
  
	
  
	
  Safe	
  Ci1es	
  
Safest	
  Ci-es	
  
Tokyo	
  is	
  rated	
  as	
  the	
  world’s	
  safest	
  city	
  closely	
  followed	
  by	
  Singapore.	
  	
  
However,	
  while	
  rich	
  na3on	
  ci3es	
  are	
  generally	
  higher	
  than	
  the	
  average	
  in	
  	
  
safe	
  city	
  rankings,	
  wealth	
  and	
  resources	
  are	
  no	
  guarantee	
  of	
  urban	
  safety.	
  	
  	
  
	
  
	
  Safe	
  Ci1es	
  
Counter	
  Terrorism	
  
With	
  threats	
  rising	
  globally,	
  counter-­‐terrorism	
  architecture	
  is	
  increasingly	
  	
  
evident	
  in	
  some	
  ci3es.	
  Designing	
  solu3ons	
  that	
  have	
  impact	
  but	
  without	
  
turning	
  urban	
  districts	
  into	
  uninvi3ng	
  fortresses	
  is	
  however	
  a	
  fine	
  balance.	
  
	
  
	
  Safe	
  Ci1es	
  
Foiling	
  Cyber	
  AMacks	
  
Many	
  ci3es	
  are	
  wide	
  open	
  to	
  cyber	
  aeacks	
  and	
  the	
  IoT	
  will	
  accelerate	
  this.	
  
Most	
  vulnerable	
  for	
  urban	
  areas	
  are	
  u3li3es	
  and	
  especially	
  energy	
  supply	
  	
  
and	
  water	
  treatment.	
  Taking	
  down	
  a	
  power	
  grid	
  is	
  a	
  worst-­‐case	
  scenario.	
  	
  	
  
	
  
	
  Safe	
  Ci1es	
  
Crime	
  Hot	
  Spots	
  
Urban	
  environments	
  provide	
  triggers	
  for	
  crime.	
  Hot	
  spots	
  occur	
  across	
  
city	
  and	
  local	
  centres	
  and	
  residen3al	
  areas	
  that	
  are	
  characterised	
  by	
  	
  
poor	
  informal	
  social	
  control	
  resul3ng	
  from	
  weak	
  social	
  cohesion.	
  	
  	
  
	
  
	
  Safe	
  Ci1es	
  
Maintaining	
  Social	
  Cohesion	
  
Poor	
  social	
  cohesion	
  drives	
  increased	
  personal	
  crime.	
  Addressing	
  this	
  is	
  
another	
  top	
  priority	
  as	
  many	
  ci3es	
  develop	
  plans	
  to	
  overcome	
  inequality	
  and	
  
improve	
  health.	
  However	
  in	
  a	
  good	
  number,	
  results	
  are	
  not	
  being	
  delivered.	
  
	
  
	
  Safe	
  Ci1es	
  
Resilient	
  Ci-es	
  
Redesigning	
  and	
  building	
  new	
  infrastructures	
  to	
  withstand	
  the	
  likely	
  impacts	
  	
  
of	
  climate	
  change	
  and	
  more	
  natural	
  disasters	
  is	
  a	
  fast-­‐growing	
  concern.	
  
Adapta3on	
  is	
  currently	
  the	
  priority	
  over	
  longer-­‐term	
  mi3ga3on.	
  
	
  
	
  Resilient	
  Ci1es	
  
Climate	
  Change	
  Impact	
  
No	
  one	
  really	
  knows	
  exactly	
  what	
  2,	
  3	
  or	
  4oC	
  of	
  climate	
  change	
  means	
  but	
  
many	
  expect	
  drought	
  and	
  hurricanes	
  to	
  increase	
  in	
  frequency	
  and	
  strength.	
  
Seasons	
  will	
  shiZ.	
  The	
  biggest	
  issue	
  to	
  prepare	
  for	
  seems	
  to	
  be	
  flooding.	
  	
  	
  
	
  
	
  Resilient	
  Ci1es	
  
At-­‐Risk	
  Ci-es	
  
The	
  ten	
  most	
  ‘at	
  risk	
  ci3es’	
  from	
  climate	
  change	
  globally	
  already	
  have	
  a	
  
combined	
  popula3on	
  of	
  over	
  150m	
  and	
  are	
  projected	
  to	
  have	
  grown	
  by	
  a	
  
further	
  50%	
  by	
  2025	
  –	
  Few,	
  if	
  any,	
  will	
  be	
  insured.	
  
	
  
	
  Resilient	
  Ci1es	
  
Flooded	
  Ci-es	
  
	
  The	
  vast	
  majority	
  of	
  our	
  ci3es	
  are	
  not	
  prepared	
  for	
  flooding.	
  	
  
22	
  of	
  the	
  top	
  50	
  wealthiest	
  ci3es	
  are	
  prone	
  to	
  serious	
  flooding	
  that	
  will	
  	
  
also	
  impact	
  housing,	
  poverty,	
  cost	
  of	
  energy	
  and	
  social	
  breakdown.	
  	
  
	
  
	
  Resilient	
  Ci1es	
  
Preparing	
  for	
  Resilience	
  
The	
  opportunity	
  is	
  to	
  rethink	
  infrastructure	
  in	
  terms	
  of	
  resilience,	
  and	
  	
  
not	
  just	
  rebuild	
  it.	
  Amtudes	
  will	
  shiZ	
  considerably	
  and	
  a	
  more	
  prevalent	
  
view	
  around	
  beeer	
  preparing	
  for	
  resilience	
  will	
  become	
  clear.	
  
	
  
	
  Resilient	
  Ci1es	
  
The	
  City	
  Resilience	
  Framework	
  
Developed	
  by	
  Arup	
  with	
  support	
  from	
  the	
  Rockefeller	
  Founda3on,	
  	
  
The	
  City	
  Resilience	
  Framework	
  provides	
  a	
  lens	
  to	
  understand	
  the	
  	
  
complexity	
  of	
  ci3es	
  and	
  the	
  drivers	
  that	
  contribute	
  to	
  their	
  resilience.	
  	
  
	
  
	
  Resilient	
  Ci1es	
  
Resilience	
  Efforts	
  
New	
  approaches	
  are	
  being	
  fast-­‐tracked:	
  These	
  include	
  the	
  crea3on	
  of	
  	
  
Chief	
  Resilience	
  Officers	
  to	
  coordinate	
  each	
  city's	
  resiliency	
  efforts	
  to	
  the	
  	
  
crea3on	
  of	
  resilience	
  bonds	
  to	
  generate	
  capital	
  for	
  risk	
  reduc3on	
  projects.	
  	
  
	
  
	
  Resilient	
  Ci1es	
  
Collabora-ve	
  Compe--on	
  
Ci3es	
  have	
  always	
  competed	
  with	
  each	
  other.	
  This	
  is	
  not	
  about	
  to	
  change	
  	
  
any	
  3me	
  soon.	
  But	
  with	
  many	
  shared	
  challenges	
  now	
  being	
  aired,	
  there	
  is	
  	
  
also	
  an	
  evident	
  increase	
  in	
  the	
  level	
  of	
  inter-­‐city	
  collabora3on	
  taking	
  place.	
  	
  
	
  
	
  Collabora1ve	
  Compe11on	
  
Growing	
  Compe--on	
  
The	
  big	
  ci3es	
  of	
  today	
  and	
  tomorrow	
  operate	
  in	
  a	
  constant	
  condi3on	
  of	
  
compe33on.	
  Many	
  compete	
  for	
  posi3oning	
  and	
  aerac3veness	
  through	
  
strategic	
  city	
  branding.	
  This	
  compe33on	
  among	
  metropolises	
  is	
  intense.	
  	
  
	
  
	
  Collabora1ve	
  Compe11on	
  
Na-onal	
  and	
  Interna-onal	
  Rivalry	
  
There	
  is	
  growing	
  compe33on	
  between	
  ci3es	
  to	
  aeract	
  high-­‐value,	
  high-­‐wage	
  
businesses	
  in	
  services	
  such	
  as	
  research	
  and	
  design,	
  new	
  technologies,	
  financial	
  
and	
  media	
  industries.	
  This	
  is	
  seen	
  at	
  both	
  na3onal	
  and	
  interna3onal	
  levels.	
  	
  
	
  
	
  Collabora1ve	
  Compe11on	
  
Quality	
  of	
  Life	
  As	
  A	
  Source	
  of	
  Compe--on	
  
We	
  can	
  expect	
  new	
  forms	
  of	
  compe33on	
  to	
  emerge.	
  As	
  quality	
  of	
  life	
  
	
  becomes	
  an	
  important	
  source	
  of	
  compe33ve	
  advantage,	
  al	
  ci3es	
  will	
  	
  
have	
  to	
  provide	
  a	
  clean,	
  green	
  and	
  safe	
  environment	
  for	
  their	
  ci3zens.	
  	
  
	
  
	
  Collabora1ve	
  Compe11on	
  
Greater	
  Collabora-on	
  
Inter-­‐city	
  collabora3on	
  is	
  now	
  top	
  of	
  many	
  a	
  mayoral	
  office	
  agenda.	
  	
  
Sharing,	
  learning	
  and	
  partnering	
  on	
  the	
  big	
  issues	
  for	
  the	
  future	
  are	
  	
  
primary	
  concerns	
  for	
  increasingly	
  influen3al	
  networks	
  such	
  as	
  the	
  C40.	
  	
  
	
  
	
  Collabora1ve	
  Compe11on	
  
Ci-es	
  not	
  Countries	
  
The	
  role	
  of	
  ci3es	
  as	
  problem	
  solvers	
  is	
  rising	
  while	
  other	
  government	
  bodies	
  
and	
  na3on	
  states	
  are	
  increasingly	
  being	
  considered	
  obsolete	
  or	
  dysfunc3onal.	
  	
  
Ci3es	
  frequently	
  have	
  greater	
  goodwill	
  and	
  beeer	
  mindsets	
  for	
  collabora3on.	
  	
  
	
  
	
  Collabora1ve	
  Compe11on	
  
Coope--on	
  
In	
  business	
  simultaneous	
  compe33on	
  and	
  coopera3on	
  is	
  a	
  key	
  strategy	
  that	
  
goes	
  beyond	
  the	
  conven3onal	
  rules	
  of	
  compe33on	
  and	
  coopera3on	
  to	
  achieve	
  
advantages	
  of	
  both.	
  For	
  ci3es,	
  parallel	
  approaches	
  are	
  now	
  emerging.	
  	
  	
  
	
  
	
  Collabora1ve	
  Compe11on	
  
Broadening	
  Compe-tor	
  Collabora-on	
  
Across	
  Europe,	
  Asia	
  and	
  the	
  US,	
  ci3es	
  used	
  to	
  compe33on	
  are	
  collabora3ng	
  	
  
on	
  business	
  partnerships,	
  tourism	
  and	
  co-­‐branding	
  for	
  investment.	
  	
  
More	
  widespread	
  coope33on	
  is	
  going	
  to	
  be	
  a	
  core	
  part	
  of	
  the	
  future	
  mix.	
  	
  
	
  
	
  Collabora1ve	
  Compe11on	
  
Moving	
  Forward	
  
	
  
	
  Moving	
  Forward	
  
Future	
  Ques-ons	
  
As	
  we	
  take	
  this	
  programme	
  forward	
  with	
  2017	
  workshops	
  planned	
  in	
  	
  
more	
  loca3ons	
  including	
  London,	
  Toronto,	
  Dubai	
  and	
  Mumbai,	
  we	
  will	
  be	
  
asking	
  more	
  ques3ons	
  about	
  how	
  we	
  can	
  meet	
  the	
  future	
  challenges.	
  
	
  
	
  Moving	
  Forward	
  
Future	
  Agenda	
  
84	
  Brook	
  Street	
  
London	
  
W1K	
  5EH	
  
+44	
  203	
  0088	
  141	
  
futureagenda.org	
  
The	
  world’s	
  leading	
  open	
  foresight	
  program	
  
What	
  do	
  you	
  think?	
  
Join	
  In	
  |	
  Add	
  your	
  views	
  into	
  the	
  mix	
  
	
  
www.futureagenda.org	
  
@futureagenda	
  

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Future of Cities - 2017 Summary

  • 1.  The  Future  of  Ci-es    Summary  of  Insights  from  Mul3ple  Expert  Discussions  Around  the  World    February  2017   The  world’s  leading  open  foresight  program  
  • 2. Context   Ci3es  are  where  innova3on  happens,  where  ideas  form  and  where  economic   growth  largely  stems.  They  are  where  most  of  us  live  and  are  also  where   significant  problems  can  emerge  as  well  as  where  challenges  can  be  magnified.        Context  
  • 3. Future  of  Ci-es  Discussions   As  part  of  the  global  Future  Agenda  programme,  during  2015  and  2016     we  ran  several  ‘future  of  ci3es’  workshops  in  key  loca3ons.  Complemented     by  over  100  other  events,  these  have  provided  mul3ple  insights  on  the  topic.      Context  
  • 4. Key  Global  Insights   Although  some  points  were  specific  to  individual  loca3ons,  a  number  of     issues  were  unified  across  all  our  discussions.  We  found  three  common   challenges,  three  shared  future  ambi3ons  and  three  emerging  concerns.     Common   Challenges   Managing   Migra3on   Countering   Inequality   Scaling   Sustainably   Shared   Ambi-ons   Healthy     Ci3es   Accessible     Ci3es   Intelligent     Ci3es   Emerging   Concerns   Safe   Ci3es   Resilient     Ci3es   Collabora3ve     Compe33on      Summary  
  • 5. Purpose  of  Summary   Ahead  of  more  workshops  and  the  publica3on  of  a  detailed  report,  this   document  provides  an  overview  of  what  we  heard  from  the  expert  discussions   undertaken  around  the  world  during  2015/16.  It  has  three  objec3ves.     Reflect   •  To  reflect  what  informed  people  in  varied  countries  think   is  most  important   Link   •  To  link  these  thoughts  to  some  of  the  research  that  has   already  been  done   Prompt   •  To  prompt  further  debate  on  some  gaps  and  issues  that   seem  as  yet  unresolved      Summary  
  • 6. Common  Challenges   Across  our  discussions  a  number  of  issues  were  raised  repeatedly  that     focused  on  three  significant,  inter-­‐related  concerns  for  the  majority.     These  are  common  challenges  impac3ng  many  of  the  world’s  ci3es.   Common   Challanges   Managing   Migra-on   Countering   Inequality   Sustainable   Scaling      
  • 7. Managing  Migra-on   Growing  migra3on  to  ci3es  in  most  regions  is  set  to  be  one  of  the  defining   shiZs  taking  place  for  the  rest  of  the  century.  Over  the  next  30  years  the  urban   popula3on  in  the  developing  world  is  set  to  grow  by  an  extra  2  billion.        Managing  Migra1on  
  • 8. Pace  of  Change   The  scale  of  migra3on  is  driving  huge  social,  cultural  and  poli3cal  change:     some  governments  have  become  doub^ul  of  their  ability  to  cope.  Many  have   concluded  that  they  ought  to  slow  the  process  down  or  disperse  the  problem.        Managing  Migra1on  
  • 9. Posi-ve  Migra-on   Many  economists  and  some  poli3cians  agree  that,  especially  for  countries     with  ageing  popula3ons,  immigra3on  has  a  posi3ve  economic  impact.     But  only  a  few  countries  are  really  open  about  the  benefits.          Managing  Migra1on  
  • 10. Refugee  Influx     The  inflow  of  refugees  from  Syria  to  Lebanon  has  passed  1.5m.  Added  to  the   500,000  Pales3nian  refugees  already  in  the  country,  within  a  total  na3onal   popula3on  of  only  6m  there  is  now  1  refugee  for  every  2  Lebanese  na3onals.        Managing  Migra1on  
  • 11. Internal  Migra-on   In  many  na3ons  internal  migra3on  completely  dwarfs  interna3onal  migra3on.   32  people  per  hour  are  moving  into  Shanghai,  39  into  Kinshasa  and  Jakarta,     42  into  Mumbai  and  Karachi,  50  into  Dhaka  and  58  into  Lagos.      Managing  Migra1on  
  • 12. Informal  Urbaniza-on   A  third  of  the  global  urban  popula3on,  and  most  of  the  migrants,  now  live  in   unplanned  slums,  gheeos  and  townships  which  typically  suffer  from  poor   quality,  overcrowded  housing  and  restricted  access  to  water  and  electricity.      Managing  Migra1on  
  • 13. Coping  Strategies   Ci3es  are  being  forced  to  rethink  how  they  plan  their  infrastructure  and   services  to  cope  with  fast-­‐rising  and  yet  some3mes  sta3s3cally  invisible   popula3ons.  In  some,  policies  are  trying  to  halt  rural-­‐urban  migra3on.        Managing  Migra1on  
  • 14. Countering  Inequality   Widening  differences  in  access  to  housing,  transport,  sanita3on,  healthcare,   educa3on  and  jobs  will  con3nue  to  extend  the  gap  between  rich  and  poor.   Inequality  is  rising  in  many  ci3es  independent  of  the  numbers  of  new  arrivals.        Countering  Inequality  
  • 15. Inequality  a  Mainstream  Issue   Inequality  has  become  a  mainstream  poli3cal  issue  as  par3es  argue  about  the   causes  as  well  as  the  limits  that  society  can  accommodate.  Almost  all  of  the   problems  at  the  boeom  of  the  social  ladder  are  greater  in  unequal  socie3es.      Countering  Inequality  
  • 16. A  Rich  Country  Problem   Urban  inequality  is  not  simply  a  developing  world  problem:  The  US  has  one  of   the  highest  rates  of  child  poverty  while  New  York,  Los  Angeles  and  London  all   have  high  GINI  coefficients  -­‐  the  most  commonly  used  measure  of  inequality.        Countering  Inequality  
  • 17. The  Influence  /  Need  Gap     Many  of  the  people  dependent  on  the  provisions  of  government  are  not  those   who  pay  or  influence  decisions.  As  such,  as  the  inequality  gap  grows,  those   making  decisions  are  increasingly  out  of  touch  with  society’s  real  needs.        Countering  Inequality  
  • 18. The  Top  1%     The  wealthy  have  a  dispropor3onate  ability  to  influence  government  and   therefore  urban  design.  Consequently  the  shape  and  development  of  ci3es     can  oZen  be  the  result  of  the  needs  of  the  elite  rather  than  the  majority.        Countering  Inequality  
  • 19. AMrac-ng  the  Highly  Skilled   Aerac3ng  highly  skilled  workers  to  a  city  oZen  leads  to  improvement  in     local  ameni3es.  But  bringing  highly  skilled  workers  to  an  area  is  not     enough  to  guarantee  high  wages;  the  right  firms  must  come  too.      Countering  Inequality  
  • 20. Designing  a  Fairer  City     Increasing  social  housing  alongside  limi3ng  popula3on  density  and  crea3ng   beeer  public  spaces  can  make  a  difference.  Providing  wider  access  to  basic   services  such  as  banking  and  healthcare  also  helps  counter  inequality.          Countering  Inequality  
  • 21. Joined  Up  Responses   Given  the  inter-­‐rela3onships  between  financial  inequality  and  unequal  access   to  transport,  healthcare,  educa3on  and  the  Internet,  urban  policy  has  to  be   integrated  across  mul3ple  silos.  This  demands  far  greater  joined  up  ac3on.        Countering  Inequality  
  • 22. Sustainable  Scaling   Urban  seelements  will  increase  to  more  than  3m  km2  by  2050:  Never  before   have  we  seen  such  fast  scaling  of  urban  environments.  If  we  are  to  avoid   replica3ng  the  errors  of  the  past,  then  ci3es  must  be  planned  sustainably.        Sustainable  Scaling  
  • 23. Disconnected  Sprawl   Many  of  the  world’s  fastest  growing  ci3es  are  becoming  looser  and     less  connected  at  the  edges.  Sprawl  is  significantly  increasing     urban  footprints,  decreasing  density  and  reducing  open  space.      Sustainable  Scaling  
  • 24. Africa  Growth   Africa  is  the  world’s  fastest  urbanising  con3nent.  Some  ci3es  are  expanding     at  rates  of  more  than  7%  per  year.  Unsurprisingly  many  governments     find  it  difficult  to  provide  residents  with  even  the  most  basic  services.        Sustainable  Scaling  
  • 25. Planning  Ahead   Retrofimng  roads,  u3li3es  and  services  is  far  more  expensive  than  planning  for   them  in  advance:  fast-­‐growing  ci3es  need  to  establish  expansion  areas  that  can   accommodate  growth,  plan  and  secure  the  rights  for  roads  and  public  spaces.        Sustainable  Scaling  
  • 26. Dense  Ci-es   Experts  suggest  that  densely  populated,  efficient  ci3es  like  Paris  and     Hong  Kong  are  the  poten3al  blueprints  for  sustainable  places  to  live;  much     beeer  than  the  distributed  sprawls  such  as  Los  Angeles  and  Mexico  City.        Sustainable  Scaling  
  • 27. Satellite  Ci-es   In  many  regions  the  growth  of  satellite  ci3es  and  networks  of  midi-­‐ci3es  is     seen  as  a  preferred  route  to  more  singular  mega-­‐city  development.     Connected  by  fast  infrastructure,  these  can  act  collec3vely  economically.        Sustainable  Scaling  
  • 28. Mega-­‐City  Master-­‐Plans   Several  metropolises  in  Asia  and  the  Middle  East  are  effec3vely  being  built   from  scratch,  so  there  is  an  opportunity  to  get  scaling  right  from  the  start.  To   avoid  more  sprawl,  they  need  shared,  long-­‐term  and  detailed  master  plans.        Sustainable  Scaling  
  • 29. Shared  Ambi-ons   In  exploring  how  to  improve  their  urban  environments  and  the  lives  of     ci3zens,  many  ci3es  share  a  number  of  common  ambi3ons  for  the  future.   Three  inter-­‐related  goals  were  highlighted  across  most  of  our  discussions.   Shared   Ambi-ons   Healthy   Ci3es   Accessible   Ci3es   Intelligent   Ci3es      
  • 30. Healthy  Ci-es   A  common  core  aim  is  to  reduce  pollu3on,  especially  air  pollu3on,     improve  access  to  clean  water,  and  install  beeer  sanita3on  and     healthcare  provision  so  that  fewer  die  from  preventable  causes.        Healthy  Ci1es  
  • 31. Air  Pollu-on   The  most  detec3ble  health  threat  to  ci3es  today  is  declining  air  quality.     Delhi’s  air  is  15  3mes  more  polluted  than  the  WHO  safe  maximum.  Air   pollu3on  in  China  kills  about  4,000  people  every  day  –  17%  of  all  deaths.        Healthy  Ci1es  
  • 32. Rich  Country  Air  Quality   Some  of  the  most  toxic  air  today  is  found  in  the  UAE.     Although  air  quality  is  gradually  improving  in  the  US,  in  Europe     over  460,000  people  a  year  die  prematurely  because  of  air  pollu3on.        Healthy  Ci1es  
  • 33. C40  Ac-on   Led  by  the  mayors  of  C40  ci3es  such  as  Paris  and  Mexico  City  there  is  a   concerted  effort  underway  to  reduce  emissions.  By  introducing  bans  for  diesel   and  incen3ves  for  electric  vehicles  by  2025,  they  aim  to  change  the  market.        Healthy  Ci1es  
  • 34. Eco  Civilisa-on   Poten3ally  most  significant  on  a  global  scale  is  China’s  Eco-­‐Civiliza3on  ini3a3ve   -­‐  many  see  this  as  a  game-­‐changer.  China  will  take  the  lead  on  climate  change   and  reducing  urban  air  pollu3on  and  so  set  the  standards  for  others.        Healthy  Ci1es  
  • 35. Polluted  Water   Water  pollu3on  is  another  major  challenge  to  healthy  city  living.  Poorly  treated   sewage  can  be  low  in  dissolved  oxygen  and  high  in  pollutants.  Groundwater   can  be  contaminated  from  garbage  dumps,  toxic  waste  and  chemical  storage.      Healthy  Ci1es  
  • 36. Known  Solu-ons   Many  of  the  solu3ons  lie  not  only  in  cleaning  up  water  supplies  but  also  in   encouraging  industry  and  ci3zens  to  use  more  recycled  water.  Simple,  proven   ac3ons  can  transform  the  water  supply  and  massively  reduce  contamina3on.        Healthy  Ci1es  
  • 37. Waste  Management   Dhaka,  Delhi  and  Port-­‐au-­‐Prince  are  three  of  the  worst  for  poor  waste   management.  Globally  the  standard  bearers  for  minimum  landfill  include   Switzerland  and  San  Francisco.  Regula3on  drives  behavioural  change.        Healthy  Ci1es  
  • 38. Urban  Obesity   Mass  urbanisa3on,  reduced  ac3vity  and  poor  diet  are  all  accelera3ng  obesity.   Across  India  and  Africa  migra3on  from  rural  to  urban  areas  is  associated  with   an  increase  in  obesity  and  is  a  dispropor3onate  burden  on  the  poor.              Healthy  Ci1es  
  • 39. Protec-ng  Public  Spaces   Urban  planning  has  a  role  to  play.  Designing  ci3es  to  encourage  more     outdoor  ac3vity  is  one  area  of  observable  ac3vity  as  governments  are   pressured  to  ensure  that  public  spaces  are  created  and  retained.        Healthy  Ci1es  
  • 40. Agreed  Benefits   Encouraging  a  healthier  lifestyle  can  improve  urban  design  and  consequently   result  in  reduced  pressure  on  healthcare,  beeer  community  resilience,  and   overall  offer  improved  life  expectancy.  No  new  technologies  are  required.        Healthy  Ci1es  
  • 41. Accessible  Ci-es   A  key  ambi3on  for  many  is  to  plan  ci3es  for  people  not  cars,  providing     beeer  public  transport,  new  cycle  ways  and  crea3ng  more  walkable  areas,   while  also  encouraging  more  integra3on  rather  than  segrega3on.        Accessible  Ci1es  
  • 42. People  Not  Cars   We  live  in  a  world  where  the  majority  of  our  ci3es  have  been  designed   for  cars  first  and  people  second.  Many  believe  that  urban  life  could  be     beeer  without  cars  –  or  certainly  without  so  many  of  them.        Accessible  Ci1es  
  • 43. BeMer  Op-ons   Walking  or  riding  a  bike  is  healthier  and  safer  and  public  transport  is  frequently   cheaper  than  the  car.  Copenhagen  and  Amsterdam,  oZen  seen  as  Europe’s   most  sustainable  ci3es,  are  leaders  in  suppor3ng  non-­‐motorized  transport.      Accessible  Ci1es  
  • 44. Pro  Cycle  and  Pedestrian   Ci3es  are  shiZing  their  aeen3on  to  making  it  easier  to  walk,  cycle  and  play  on   their  streets.  Central  roads  are  being  converted  into  pedestrian  promenades,   others  flanked  with  cycle  lanes  and  speed  limits  are  being  slashed.        Accessible  Ci1es  
  • 45. Peak  Car?   For  most  conurba3ons  today,  the  future  threatens  to  be  one  with  more  cars.     In  many  ci3es  the  lack  of  good  public  transport,  coupled  with  rising  incomes     in  some  places,  is  pushing  up  the  use  of  private  vehicles  but  to  what  limit?        Accessible  Ci1es  
  • 46. More  Public  Transport   A  good  public  transport  system  makes  a  city  more  accessible  and  efficient.     By  2030,  80%  of  Singapore  households  will  be  within  a  10-­‐minute  walk  of  a   train  sta3on  -­‐  75%  of  journeys  will  be  on  public  systems.          Accessible  Ci1es  
  • 47. Public  Private  Partnerships   In  Medellin,  Colombia,  the  government  is  increasingly  collabora3ng     with  business  to  improve  the  ins3tu3onal  fabric  as  well  as  core    infrastructure  -­‐  through  the  building  of  new  cable  cars  and  metros.        Accessible  Ci1es  
  • 48. Walkable  Ci-es   Walkable  ci3es  are  safer,  more  aerac3ve,  more  inclusive  and  easier  to  govern.   High  profile  developments  like  the  Cheonggyecheon  River  in  Seoul  have   transformed  walkability  …  but  small  changes  can  make  a  difference  too.      Accessible  Ci1es  
  • 49. Local  Clusters   Local  hubs  for  those  in  knowledge-­‐based  sectors  has  long  been  proposed  as  a   means  of  minimising  the  daily  commute.  ‘Work,  live,  play’  clusters  in  ci3es   allow  residents  to  access  different  ac3vi3es  all  embedded  in  one  area.        Accessible  Ci1es  
  • 50. Ci-es  for  Ageing   In  developed  countries  80%  of  older  people  are  expected  to  live  in  ci3es     by  2050.  They  need  con3nue  to  play  an  ac3ve  role  in  the  community  and     not  become  isolated.  We  need  integra3on  rather  than  segrega3on.      Accessible  Ci1es  
  • 51. Increasing  Accessibility   Many  planning  challenges  in  ci3es  without  extensive  public  transport     centre  on  using  beeer  low-­‐cost  systems  to  improve  access  -­‐  while  not   constraining  broader  movement  of  people  and  goods  by  vehicles.        Accessible  Ci1es  
  • 52. Intelligent  Ci-es   Increasingly  equipped  with  digital  technologies  and  ‘big  data’  many     ci3es  are  now  making  buildings,  infrastructure  and  even  ci3zens     smarter  -­‐  and  therefore  making  themselves  more  “intelligent”.        Intelligent  Ci1es  
  • 53. Smart  City  Ideal   Ideally,  sensors  integrate  with  real-­‐3me  monitoring  systems,  collect     data  from  ci3zens  and  devices  that  is  then  processed  and  analyzed.     The  informa3on  and  knowledge  gathered  are  used  to  tackle  inefficiency.        Intelligent  Ci1es  
  • 54. Smart  City  India   India  is  inves3ng  $15bn  to  develop  100  smart  ci3es,  aiming  to  improve     basic  infrastructure  by  providing  good  water  and  power  supplies  as  well     as  beeer  public  transport  and  also  significantly  enhance  IT  connec3vity.        Intelligent  Ci1es  
  • 55. Corporate  Partnerships   In  recent  years  we  have  seen  progress  on  the  smart  ci3es  ambi3on    –  much  of  which  has  been  focused  on  collabora3on  with  some  key   mul3na3onals  to  create  municipal  /  corporate  partnerships.      Intelligent  Ci1es  
  • 56. IBM  |  Rio  de  Janeiro   IBM’s  Smarter  Ci3es  /  Smarter  Planet  ini3a3ve  has  been  embraced     by  mayors  in  many  key  ci3es:  Massive  sensor  networks,  cloud-­‐based    storage  and  predic3ve  analy3cs  have  all  been  coming  to  the  fore.      Intelligent  Ci1es  
  • 57. Intel  |  San  Jose   Intel’s  collabora3on  with  the  city  of  San  Jose  is  a  demonstrator  of   the  capability  of  the  ‘Internet  of  Things’  focuses  on  improving  air  quality,    noise  pollu3on  and  traffic  flows  via  a  more  connected  infrastructure.      Intelligent  Ci1es  
  • 58. Siemens  |  Masdar   Although  behind  schedule,  Masdar  is  s3ll  aiming  to  be  one  of  the  most   sustainable  and  smart  ci3es  on  the  planet.  Key  partnerships  with  Siemens     are  focused  on  opportuni3es  such  as  more  effec3ve,  low  energy  systems.      Intelligent  Ci1es  
  • 59. Cisco  |  Songdo   Songdo  in  Korea  has  embraced  Cisco’s  ‘Smart+Connected’  view  of  the  city.   Ubiquitous  data  sharing,  automated  buildings,  high-­‐speed  networks     and  pervasive  interac3on  are  all  part  of  the  connected  blueprint.      Intelligent  Ci1es  
  • 60. Realis-c  Expecta-ons   Some  see  that  the  smart  city  is  not  a  seamless  web  of  integrated  and  joined-­‐up   technologies  and  probably  never  will  be.  Smart  ci3es  could  be  just  as  much   about  beeer  governance  and  urban  planning  than  about  integrated  machines.        Intelligent  Ci1es  
  • 61. Smartphone  Impact   Digital  pla^orms  can  bring  people  together  and  collaborate  to  ‘fix’  problems   and  so  create  a  more  efficient  system.  Smartphones  in  par3cular  allow  us  to   interact  with  and  beeer  understand  the  environments  within  which  we  inhabit.        Intelligent  Ci1es  
  • 62. London  –  Open  Data     Once  informa3on  is  free  and  open,  then  different  par3es  and  interests  can   collaborate.  London  has  more  open  public  data  sets  than  any  other  European   city.  It  is  a  leading  centre  for  more  intelligent  use  of  shared  informa3on.      Intelligent  Ci1es  
  • 63. New  York  –  Engaged  Ci-zens   As  the  pioneer  in  providing  open  connec3vity  for  all,  New  York  has  been   a  hot-­‐spot  for  the  development  of  ci3zen  based  networks:  The  Bryant   Park  Restora3on  Corpora3on  was  one  of  the  first  catalysts  for  change.      Intelligent  Ci1es  
  • 64. Big  Data  Analysis   The  LAPD’s  algorithms  analyse  mul3ple  data  streams  to  iden3fy  areas  with     high  current  probabili3es  for  certain  types  of  crime.  Insights  are  streamed     into  patrol  cars  who  proac3vely  go  to  these  loca3ons  –  and  so  prevent  crime.        Intelligent  Ci1es  
  • 65. Responsive  Ci-es   Pervasive  digital  systems  that  layer  some  ci3es  are  already  transforming     urban  life  for  some.  Once  this  informa3on  is  beeer  shared  between  planners,   designers  and  the  public,  then  we  can  maybe  collec3vely  shape  future  ci3es.      Intelligent  Ci1es  
  • 66. Smarter  Ci-zens   By  sharing  more  and  beeer  informa3on  in  engaging  more  with     the  people  who  live  in  them,  ci3es  and  their  ci3zens  become  smarter     and  the  overall  intelligence  of  the  urban  environment  itself  increases.        Intelligent  Ci1es  
  • 67. Emerging  Concerns   Looking  forward,  many  see  three  themes  that  are  emerging  and  increasingly   significant  concerns  for  ci3es.  Although  not  yet  universal,  they  are  major     shiZs  that  are  demanding  new  thinking  about  urban  design  and  policy.   Emerging   Concerns   Safe   Ci3es   Resilient   Ci3es   Collabora3ve   Compe--on      
  • 68. Safe  Ci-es   Whether  to  prevent  terrorism,  provide  defense  against  more  infrastructure-­‐ focused  cyber  aeacks  or  dealing  with  increased  inequality,  the  need  for     urban  environments  to  beeer  protect  their  ci3zens  is  accelera3ng.      Safe  Ci1es  
  • 69. Safest  Ci-es   Tokyo  is  rated  as  the  world’s  safest  city  closely  followed  by  Singapore.     However,  while  rich  na3on  ci3es  are  generally  higher  than  the  average  in     safe  city  rankings,  wealth  and  resources  are  no  guarantee  of  urban  safety.          Safe  Ci1es  
  • 70. Counter  Terrorism   With  threats  rising  globally,  counter-­‐terrorism  architecture  is  increasingly     evident  in  some  ci3es.  Designing  solu3ons  that  have  impact  but  without   turning  urban  districts  into  uninvi3ng  fortresses  is  however  a  fine  balance.      Safe  Ci1es  
  • 71. Foiling  Cyber  AMacks   Many  ci3es  are  wide  open  to  cyber  aeacks  and  the  IoT  will  accelerate  this.   Most  vulnerable  for  urban  areas  are  u3li3es  and  especially  energy  supply     and  water  treatment.  Taking  down  a  power  grid  is  a  worst-­‐case  scenario.          Safe  Ci1es  
  • 72. Crime  Hot  Spots   Urban  environments  provide  triggers  for  crime.  Hot  spots  occur  across   city  and  local  centres  and  residen3al  areas  that  are  characterised  by     poor  informal  social  control  resul3ng  from  weak  social  cohesion.          Safe  Ci1es  
  • 73. Maintaining  Social  Cohesion   Poor  social  cohesion  drives  increased  personal  crime.  Addressing  this  is   another  top  priority  as  many  ci3es  develop  plans  to  overcome  inequality  and   improve  health.  However  in  a  good  number,  results  are  not  being  delivered.      Safe  Ci1es  
  • 74. Resilient  Ci-es   Redesigning  and  building  new  infrastructures  to  withstand  the  likely  impacts     of  climate  change  and  more  natural  disasters  is  a  fast-­‐growing  concern.   Adapta3on  is  currently  the  priority  over  longer-­‐term  mi3ga3on.      Resilient  Ci1es  
  • 75. Climate  Change  Impact   No  one  really  knows  exactly  what  2,  3  or  4oC  of  climate  change  means  but   many  expect  drought  and  hurricanes  to  increase  in  frequency  and  strength.   Seasons  will  shiZ.  The  biggest  issue  to  prepare  for  seems  to  be  flooding.          Resilient  Ci1es  
  • 76. At-­‐Risk  Ci-es   The  ten  most  ‘at  risk  ci3es’  from  climate  change  globally  already  have  a   combined  popula3on  of  over  150m  and  are  projected  to  have  grown  by  a   further  50%  by  2025  –  Few,  if  any,  will  be  insured.      Resilient  Ci1es  
  • 77. Flooded  Ci-es    The  vast  majority  of  our  ci3es  are  not  prepared  for  flooding.     22  of  the  top  50  wealthiest  ci3es  are  prone  to  serious  flooding  that  will     also  impact  housing,  poverty,  cost  of  energy  and  social  breakdown.        Resilient  Ci1es  
  • 78. Preparing  for  Resilience   The  opportunity  is  to  rethink  infrastructure  in  terms  of  resilience,  and     not  just  rebuild  it.  Amtudes  will  shiZ  considerably  and  a  more  prevalent   view  around  beeer  preparing  for  resilience  will  become  clear.      Resilient  Ci1es  
  • 79. The  City  Resilience  Framework   Developed  by  Arup  with  support  from  the  Rockefeller  Founda3on,     The  City  Resilience  Framework  provides  a  lens  to  understand  the     complexity  of  ci3es  and  the  drivers  that  contribute  to  their  resilience.        Resilient  Ci1es  
  • 80. Resilience  Efforts   New  approaches  are  being  fast-­‐tracked:  These  include  the  crea3on  of     Chief  Resilience  Officers  to  coordinate  each  city's  resiliency  efforts  to  the     crea3on  of  resilience  bonds  to  generate  capital  for  risk  reduc3on  projects.        Resilient  Ci1es  
  • 81. Collabora-ve  Compe--on   Ci3es  have  always  competed  with  each  other.  This  is  not  about  to  change     any  3me  soon.  But  with  many  shared  challenges  now  being  aired,  there  is     also  an  evident  increase  in  the  level  of  inter-­‐city  collabora3on  taking  place.        Collabora1ve  Compe11on  
  • 82. Growing  Compe--on   The  big  ci3es  of  today  and  tomorrow  operate  in  a  constant  condi3on  of   compe33on.  Many  compete  for  posi3oning  and  aerac3veness  through   strategic  city  branding.  This  compe33on  among  metropolises  is  intense.        Collabora1ve  Compe11on  
  • 83. Na-onal  and  Interna-onal  Rivalry   There  is  growing  compe33on  between  ci3es  to  aeract  high-­‐value,  high-­‐wage   businesses  in  services  such  as  research  and  design,  new  technologies,  financial   and  media  industries.  This  is  seen  at  both  na3onal  and  interna3onal  levels.        Collabora1ve  Compe11on  
  • 84. Quality  of  Life  As  A  Source  of  Compe--on   We  can  expect  new  forms  of  compe33on  to  emerge.  As  quality  of  life    becomes  an  important  source  of  compe33ve  advantage,  al  ci3es  will     have  to  provide  a  clean,  green  and  safe  environment  for  their  ci3zens.        Collabora1ve  Compe11on  
  • 85. Greater  Collabora-on   Inter-­‐city  collabora3on  is  now  top  of  many  a  mayoral  office  agenda.     Sharing,  learning  and  partnering  on  the  big  issues  for  the  future  are     primary  concerns  for  increasingly  influen3al  networks  such  as  the  C40.        Collabora1ve  Compe11on  
  • 86. Ci-es  not  Countries   The  role  of  ci3es  as  problem  solvers  is  rising  while  other  government  bodies   and  na3on  states  are  increasingly  being  considered  obsolete  or  dysfunc3onal.     Ci3es  frequently  have  greater  goodwill  and  beeer  mindsets  for  collabora3on.        Collabora1ve  Compe11on  
  • 87. Coope--on   In  business  simultaneous  compe33on  and  coopera3on  is  a  key  strategy  that   goes  beyond  the  conven3onal  rules  of  compe33on  and  coopera3on  to  achieve   advantages  of  both.  For  ci3es,  parallel  approaches  are  now  emerging.          Collabora1ve  Compe11on  
  • 88. Broadening  Compe-tor  Collabora-on   Across  Europe,  Asia  and  the  US,  ci3es  used  to  compe33on  are  collabora3ng     on  business  partnerships,  tourism  and  co-­‐branding  for  investment.     More  widespread  coope33on  is  going  to  be  a  core  part  of  the  future  mix.        Collabora1ve  Compe11on  
  • 89. Moving  Forward      Moving  Forward  
  • 90. Future  Ques-ons   As  we  take  this  programme  forward  with  2017  workshops  planned  in     more  loca3ons  including  London,  Toronto,  Dubai  and  Mumbai,  we  will  be   asking  more  ques3ons  about  how  we  can  meet  the  future  challenges.      Moving  Forward  
  • 91. Future  Agenda   84  Brook  Street   London   W1K  5EH   +44  203  0088  141   futureagenda.org   The  world’s  leading  open  foresight  program   What  do  you  think?   Join  In  |  Add  your  views  into  the  mix     www.futureagenda.org   @futureagenda