Five years on from the sharing of output from the first Future Agenda programme, several people have been asking how well the views have played out. So here is a reposting of the World in 2020 as seen from our discussions in 2010. Based on 50 workshops undertaken in 25 countries, the first Future Agenda programme was a step forward in open foresight that has since been built on and extended with the 2015 Future Agenda programme. Points highlighted in 2010 that have already started to have impact include Intelligent Highways, Muslim Europe, Access not Ownership, Global Pandemics etc. In all we feel that over 80% of the views contained here have already moved forward - some faster than anticipated. More information on the first Future Agenda programme including links to the full archive can be found on http://www.futureagenda.org/info/future-agenda-2010 For the latest insights from Future Agenda 2.0 please see the main site on http://www.futureagenda.org

1. The World in 2020
Insights from Mul0ple Expert Discussions
January 2011 The world’s leading open foresight program

2. The Future Agenda is the world’s largest open foresight programme
that accesses mul;ple views of the next decade so that we can all be be?er
informed and hence s;mulate more focused and impac@ul innova;on.
Future Agenda Context

3. This document provides a summary of what we heard from mul;ple expert
voices around the world in 2010 – on how it is changing, what is driving
change and what and where will be the impacts over the next decade.
The World in 2020 Context

4. Across the mul;ple discussions, 52 emerging issues are touching
upon and connec;ng with eight underlying, and interwoven, themes with
different emphasis in different countries. These are detailed below.
Seven Themes
Certain;es Health Wealth Happiness
Mobility Security Locality

5. Four Certain;es

6. By 2020 we will add another 750m people to the planet,
most in places least able to accommodate them
Imbalanced Popula?on Growth Certain?es

7. We will see economic, physical and poli;cal shortages of key
materials that will result in major changes in our perspec;ves
Key Resource Constraints Certain?es

8. The centre of gravity of global wealth
shiQs East with decreased influence for the US and Europe
Asian Wealth ShiE Certain?es

9. We will be connected everywhere - everything that can
benefit from a network connec;on will have one
Ubiquitous Data Access Certain?es

10. Health

11. Robo;c assisted care and remote monitoring provide
economically viable support for the sick and elderly so
that people can stay home for longer
Automated People Care Health

12. Enhanced func;onality will shiQ from an external
add-on to an integrated capability to provide
the op;on for super-human performance
Clinical Enhancement Health

13. With diabetes consuming 5% of GDP a combina;on of
fat taxa;on, pa;ent data mining and personal budgets
will play a role in stabilising the obesity epidemic
Diabesity Health

14. We are likely to see 2 to 3 major pandemics start in
regions with limited public healthcare and rapidly
spread globally and so demand fast response
Global Pandemics Health

15. Stopping mental degrada;on from Alzheimer’s makes
quality ageing more possible by improving
cogni;on and slowing the rate of decline
Hal?ng Alzheimer's Health

16. Medical tourism goes main-stream as low-cost cardiac
surgery and broader healthcare provision join
den;stry and cosme;c surgery to have global impact
Mass Medical Tourism Health

17. More customised foods, blur the line between
pharmaceu;cals and food as neutragenomics
allow individualised diets to fit gene;c profiles
Pharma Foods
Health

18. The escala;ng economic and social cost of suppor;ng
the aged beyond natural lifecycles leads
to wider acceptance of assisted suicide
Systemic Euthanasia
Health

19. Wealth

20. As informa;on is shared globally and insight is commodi;zed,
the best returns go to those who can produce
non-standard, differen;ated knowledge
Differen?ated Knowledge
Wealth

21. Pervasive smart meters and ubiquitous tracking services
create pla@orms for the dynamic pricing of
resources, access and travel to manage demand
Dynamic Pricing Wealth

22. Rising sustainability impera;ves and increasing
cost of ownership shiQ the balance from
ownership to access and we prefer to rent than buy
Lease Everything Wealth

23. Consumers are incen;vised to use significantly
less energy as escala;ng growth in carbon emissions
force u;li;es to change their business models
Less Energy Wealth

24. The revitalisa;on of bartering, decreased trust in
banks and increasing tax avoidance broadens
the adop;on of alterna;ve stores of value for trade
Local Currency Wealth

25. Proven systems built on mobile connec;vity and
increasingly flexible means of exchange provide a
;pping point in the shiQ towards the cashless society
Mobile Money Wealth

26. Widening differences in wealth between and within
urban and rural communi;es extends the gap between
rich and poor - but they s;ll need each other
Richer Poorer Wealth

27. The economic rise of Asia and the need for an alterna;ve
to the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency produces
a parallel broad-basket Asian Currency Unit
Third Global Currency Wealth

28. Happiness

29. A wealthier, healthier older genera;on increasingly
engage in more ac;ve lives, having extended careers
and becoming more poli;cally involved
Ac?ve Elderly Happiness

30. The increasing fragmenta;on of society and
looser connec;on between religion and the state
sees more of us turning to God
Choosing God Happiness

31. The need to differen;ate between real and virtual
disappears - who you are ceases to use a singular iden;ty
as we manage mul;ple iden;ty por@olios
Cocktail Iden??es Happiness

32. Growing sa;sfac;on in the basics of life focuses
more on making the most of the day-to-day
and increasingly valuing the ordinary
Enjoying the Ordinary Happiness

33. The future is one of reduced choice but not less interest
as retailers provide an increasingly edited por@olio
of products through ever more efficient channels
Less Variety Happiness

34. The role of live in an increasingly virtual,
isolated world becomes more important to
create moments for deeper, richer connec;ons
Live Experiences Happiness

35. Mul;ple media sources are instantly integrated at
the point of consump;on to provide us with immersive
access to tailored, bite-sized content
Seamless Media Consump?on Happiness

36. Being disconnected in an always connected world leads
to virtual cocoons at home and real physical
solitude becomes an op;on only for the rich
Switching Off Happiness

37. Mobility

38. Led by more tourists and steady growth in cargo
transporta;on, Asian avia;on places more orders
and becomes the largest air market in the world
Asian Avia?on Mobility

39. China, the pacese?er for change in inter-urban
transport, is inves;ng over $1 trillion expanding its
rail network to 120,000km by 2020
Chinese Trains Mobility

40. Under increasing pressure to improve efficiency
freight shipping adopts a range of alterna;ve
policies and power systems
Clean Shipping Mobility

41. With France and Germany taking the ini;al lead roles,
electric cars take off and form up to 10% of the
world’s vehicle fleet by 2020
Electric Mobility Mobility

42. Mesh networks and ubiquitous mobile connec;ons
deliver automated highways to improve safety,
increase capacity and reduce conges;on
Intelligent Highways Mobility

43. With increasing economic migra;on the total
Muslim popula;on of Europe is similar in size to that
of Germany and a rising cultural / poli;cal influence
Muslim Europe Mobility

44. The acceptance of being tracked by your mobile is
accelerated by ;cket-less transport systems, increased
surveillance and successful loca;on-based services
People Tracking Mobility

45. Informed choices, growth, conges;on and regula;on
impact the world’s ci;es to drive a shiQ to
more sustainable efficient transport op;ons
Urban (Im)mobility Mobility

46. Security

47. The shiQ in global diet from rice to meat brings
new sources of protein like lab-grown manufactured
meats and high protein vegetable combina;ons
Alterna?ve Proteins Security

48. Ac;ve gathering and interpreta;on of data related
to threats to human and animal health delivers
faster early warning and situa;onal awareness
Bio-Surveillance Security

49. Greater informa;on overload moves our focus
from simply accessing data to include the source
of the insight to dis;nguish what we trust
Credible Sources Security

50. With more free agents and outsourcing, non-core
func;ons within organisa;ons are interchangeable
and easily rebuilt around value-crea;ng units
Corporate LEGO Security

51. Intelligent UAVs choose their vic;ms themselves
as the race for more focused military influence leads
to the prolifera;on of assassina;on tools
Drone Wars Security

52. Increasing governmental focus on energy security
and climate change drives the uptake of large-scale
solar as the leading renewable supply
Solar Sunrise Security

53. Advanced water purifica;on, irriga;on and desalina;on
technologies are used to help communi;es to
manage the rising supply / demand imbalance
Water Management
Security

54. Trus;ng our digital creden;als allows us to par;cipate
confidently in open global transac;ons to gain access
to what we want when we want it
Virtual Authen?city Security

55. Locality

56. Escala;ng waste produc;on and new adtudes,
approaches, regula;on and business models lead
many to aim for an almost zero waste society
Almost Zero Waste
Locality

57. The need to make public transport as flexible as private
focuses a?en;on on the last mile between mul;-modal
hubs and the home / work des;na;on
Bridging The Last Mile
Locality

58. In rural and urban environments, the community is a
prized goal for the middle aged, middle classes as
they seek to reconnect with “people like us”
Community Living Locality

59. As urban migra;on increases, efficient, densely
populated ci;es, not distributed op;ons, are the
blueprints for more sustainable places to live
Dense Ci?es Locality

60. Increased transparency on food availability and security,
land use and eco-literacy accelerate mass consump;on
of locally grown and processed foods
Local Foods Locality

61. Smarter, be?er connected, self-monitoring homes
and offices provide safer, more secure, low energy
buildings able to self-manage u;li;es
Intelligent buildings
Locality

62. Increasing compe;;on between ci;es over-rides na;onal
priori;es as mayors lead bold ini;a;ves to place their
ci;es at the forefront of the global stage
Mega City States
Locality

63. Immigra;on is part of economic development strategies
and, especially in low fer;lity economies,
na;ons posi;on themselves to a?ract migrants
Migra?on Magnets Locality

64. Future Agenda
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