5. 28 years of high growth
1.0
3.5
6.0
8.9
Average annual GDP growth
0
2
4
6
8
10
1900-1950 1950-1980 1980-2002 2002-2007
(%)
6. Population growth is slowing
Sources: 1900-1990: Angus Maddison (1995), Monitoring the World Economy, 1990-2000:Census of India (2001)
1.0
2.2
2.1
1.8
1.5
0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
1901-1950 1951-1980 1981-1990 1991-2000 2001-2010
(%)
7. Literacy is rising
Source: Census of India (2001)
17
52
65
80
0
20
40
60
80
100
1950 1990 2000 2010 (proj)
(%)
8. When middle class is 50% then the politics will also change
Source: The Consuming Class, National Council of Applied Economic Research, 2002
65
220
368
8%
22% 32%
0
100
200
300
400
1980 2000 2010
(m)
9. Poverty is declining
46
26
16
1% of the people have
been crossing poverty
line each year for 25
years
Equals ~ 200m
0
10
20
30
40
50
1980 2000 2010
(%)
10. Per capita income gains
Source: World Bank
US$ ppp
20053,051
1980
1,178
11. India is now the 4th largest economy
It will overtake Japan
between 2012 and 2014
to become the 3rd largest
15. Drivers of growth
India
■ Domestic
■ Services
■ Consumption
East and S.E. Asia
■ Exports
■ Manufacturing
■ Investment
16. Drivers of growth
India
■ Domestic
■ Services
■ Consumption
■ High tech, capital
intensive industry
East and S.E. Asia
■ Exports
■ Manufacturing
■ Investment
■ Low tech, labour
intensive industry
17. Implications of India model
‘Domestically led’ means:
■ Insulation from global downturns
■ Less volatility
■ We will come out of the global crisis
faster
18. Implication of India model
‘Services led’ raises
uncomfortable questions:
■ Have we skipped the industrial
revolution?
■ How do we take people from farms to
cities?
■ Will SEZ’s be our tipping point?
19. Implication of India model – Consumption led
41%
45%
59%
U.S.
China
Brazil
India
33%
People Friendly:
Consumption as % of GDP
People Friendly, Less inequality:
Gini Index
58%
42%
64%
Europe
China
India
Will India become the next big consuming economy after the U.S.?
20. Reasons for success
India’s success is market-led
whereas China’s is state induced
The entrepreneur is at the
centre of the Indian model
22. India has a vibrant private space
■ 100 Indian Companies have market cap of US$ 1bn
23. India has a vibrant private space
■ 100 Indian Companies have market cap of US$ 1bn
■ 1,000 Indian Companies have received foreign
institutional investment
24. India has a vibrant private space
■ 100 Indian Companies have market cap of US$ 1bn
■ 1,000 Indian Companies have received foreign
institutional investment
■ 125 Fortune 500 companies have R&D bases in India
25. India has a vibrant private space
■ 100 Indian Companies have market cap of US$ 1bn
■ 1,000 Indian Companies have received foreign
institutional investment
■ 125 Fortune 500 companies have R&D bases in India
■ 390 Fortune 500 companies have outsourced software
development to India
26. India has a vibrant private space
■ 100 Indian Companies have market cap of US$ 1bn
■ 1,000 Indian Companies have received foreign
institutional investment
■ 125 Fortune 500 companies have R&D bases in India
■ 390 Fortune 500 companies have outsourced software
development to India
■ 2% bad loans in Indian banks (v~20% in China)
27. India has a vibrant private space
■ 100 Indian Companies have market cap of US$ 1bn
■ 1,000 Indian Companies have received foreign
institutional investment
■ 125 Fortune 500 companies have R&D bases in India
■ 390 Fortune 500 companies have outsourced software
development to India
■ 2% bad loans in Indian banks (v~20% in China)
■ 80% credit goes to private sector (v~10% in China)
28. Public space is a problem
We have
■ Dynamic democracy with
honest elections
■ Free, lively media and press
But we also have
Poor governance!
29. Governance Failures
Not the minister caught with a bribe
1 out of 4 school teachers absent in
government schools
2 out of 5 doctors absent in primary health
centers
Delhi’s water
Land titles
Etc
30. Ironically, we used to have world class institutions from
1950-1980, but our problem was growth.
Now we have growth, but our institutions are failing
■ Bureaucracy
■ Judiciary
■ Police
33. Key reforms
■ Opened economy to trade and investment
■ Dismantled controls
■ Lowered tariffs
■ Dropped tax rates
■ Broke public sector monopolies
34. Understanding India’s economic success
Remarkable --every government has reformed (slowly)
since 1991
Even slow reforms add up
65 countries have done the same reforms – why did India
become the second fastest in the world?
Unappreciated fact – rule of law
35. “By 2010 India will have world’s largest
number of English speakers”
“When 300 million Indians speak a word in a
certain way, that will be the way to speak it.”
Professor David Crystal
Cambridge Encyclopedia of the English Language
36. Understanding India’s economic success
■ Mental revolution among the young
■ ‘I want to be Bilgay’
■ Raju’s secret of success
■ Banianisation of society
■ 180 TV channels; 65 news channels
■ The rise of Hinglish
37. Where are we today?
Growth fell to 6.7% in 08-09; 7% in 09-10
Pain has been less than in China
Competitive companies have recovered faster.
Risk of protectionism has receded
Recovery has been ahead of the world
38. Where are we going?
■ Base case post recovery is 7.5 % – 8.5 % GDP growth
■ Democracy will not permit more than 8% unless you have a Thatcher
■ 1.5% population growth
■ Demographic dividend – growth will continue beyond China’s
40. Convergence in the 21st century
■ Why convergence is intuitive?
■ Convergence didn’t happen in the 20th century
because the world was closed
■ Returning to a world of equality prior to 1750
■ When China and India accounted for 45% of world GDP
41. 50% 50%
India will gradually turn middle-class
8%
22%
32%
1980 2000 2010 2020 2040
West of the
Kanpur-
Chennai line
East of the
Kanpur-
Chennai line
Chennai
Kanpur-
42. What could stop the show?
- Infrastructure
- Improving via public-private parterships
- Fiscal Deficit
- Governance
None of these stopped the show in the past 25 years
- Nuclear War?
43. Education System
Is reasonably good for the top 20%
But it is abysmal for the rest
■ 1 in 4 teachers is absent in government
primary schools
■ Hence, 54% of children in urban India are in
private schools
Solution: Education Vouchers
44. Caste system
■ Origin of India’s caste system
■ Classical four castes vs 3000 jatis
■ Hostage to competitive politics
■ Source of competitive advantage
■ Affirmative action
45. Role of Religion
India’s pluralism, diversity
and tolerance
Hinduism
■ Spiritual entrepreneurialism: Gurus
■ No hierarchy:
Every Brahmin thinks he is the Pope
■ 300 million gods:
Lack of theological narcissism
■ Nasadiya Temper85%
Hindu
12%
Muslim
2%
Sikh
1%
Christian
46. Elephant and not Tiger
■ India got democracy before capitalism and this has made
all the difference
■ It is slower than China but its path is surer
■ However, an elephant at 8% growth is a formidable beast
■ We have waited 3000 years for this moment
■ India is more likely to preserve its way of life
48. About us
Federation of Chamber of Commerce is a Non-Profit-Non-Governmental organization (NGO),
Registered with Department of Charity Commissioner. Our mission is to promote commercial
interests and promote the development of trade, commerce and industry. Federation is a not
for profit bilateral business Chamber which fosters and promotes mutually beneficial relations
between various states and overseas through channels of trade and industry. The Federation
constantly strives to identify new areas of mutual co-operation and ensure the smooth flow of
trade, investment joint ventures and technology. We endeavor to provide a platform for
facilitating business and networking opportunities between companies, to promote our
members’ interests to key decision makers and to help develop economic and commercial
relations between themselves. It provides a dynamic institutional link for the promotion of
commercial and economic relations.
visit us @: www.foccin.org
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Hinweis der Redaktion
Please centre and cut the word old and put It has been onto a new line- could we make a consistent style for statements- maybe always in yellow, centred and growing?
Please could we have some kind of outline of India in the background to make the slide prettier
Could we use the script- does that fit with template?
Could we have a line for the y axis as well as numbers
Please animate all graphs so lines/bars and pie charts grow
Again y axis
Again line for y axis- is there a reason that the line is on green rather than orange?
Line for y axis
Y axis line
Could we put text in white in a box of It– put Equals …..on its own line in yellow to make it more impactful
Could we centre up the chart?
Cut the word and and centre up. Could we either make the statement grow and/or make it into a different colour to make it more impactful?
Or could we add an image – we have loads of India images
Is it on brand to use script here?
Could we add India image from file?
Make yellow title bullet and white sub bullets
Again could we add India image from file
Same with bullets and sub bullets
animate
Centre up and change colour
Grow as two separate statements
Centre these up – maybe make a little bigger?
These should be bullet points- image search Indian Policeman?
Image of Delhi at night from Google or istock?
Make bullets consistent
Y axis as a line
Please cut This means
Make bullets consistent
Animate graph
Pic of Indian school kids?
Consistent bullet points
Please make a pie chart out of religious percentages
Make bullet points out of last 3 points