How Minnesota woodlands developed, what to expect in the future, and what landowners and the rest of us can do to detect change and act to maintain resilient, healthy woodlands. (Updated May 2011)
3. All of the content is online
Text, recording of this presentation, links:
http://z.umn.edu/MWCC
4. What we’ll cover
Section 1:
How Minnesota’s current forests came to be
Section 2:
Climate change projections and possible impacts
Section 3:
What woodland owners can do
5. Glacial history
Four major periods
Wisconsin glaciation
75,000-10,000 y.a.
Covered most of
Minnesota
Creative Commons licensed
Flickr photo by Paul Keller
41. Human impacts
European American, 19thc. - present
PLSS and land conveyance: colonization
Timber harvest: 1850s – 1920s
Fires, then fire suppression
Regrowth and sustainable management
48. Review of Section 1:
How Minnesota’s current forests came to be
Glaciers
Four biomes
Human impacts
Active management ®rowth
49. What we’ll cover
Section 1:
How Minnesota’s current forests came to be
Section 2:
Climate change projections and possible impacts
Section 3:
What woodland owners can do
57. How these slides work
Source: USFS Climate Change Atlas for Northeast US Tree
Species: http://www.nrs.fs.fed.us/atlas/
58. Range shifts: Red oak
FIA current 100-yr prediction
(average of 5
models)
Source: USFS Climate Change Atlas for Northeast US Tree
Species: http://www.nrs.fs.fed.us/atlas/
59. Range shifts: White pine
FIA current 100-yr prediction
(average of 5
models)
Source: USFS Climate Change Atlas for Northeast US Tree
Species: http://www.nrs.fs.fed.us/atlas/
60. Range shifts: Trembling aspen
FIA current 100-yr prediction
(average of 5
models)
Source: USFS Climate Change Atlas for Northeast US Tree
Species: http://www.nrs.fs.fed.us/atlas/
61. Range shifts: forest types
FIA current 100-yr prediction
(average of 5
models)
Source: USFS Climate Change Atlas for Northeast US Tree
Species: http://www.nrs.fs.fed.us/atlas/
63. Bottom line:
Most ranges shift to the north and east
64. How changes will affect woodlands
LIKELY: Longer, more severe droughts...
65. How changes will affect woodlands
LIKELY: Longer, more severe droughts...
…and more frequent catastrophic events
Minnesota DNR photo
Source: www.forestryimages.org
66. How changes will affect woodlands
Longer, more severe droughts...
…and more frequent
catastrophic events
Decline in vigor and resilience
of native stands
Photo by Dave Hanson, UMN Extension
CURA Reporter, Jan/Feb 2010
67. How changes will affect woodlands
Decline in vigor and resilience of
native stands
Lots of new growing space
not well suited to current species
Photo by Joseph O’Brien, USDA Forest Service
www.forestryimages.org
68. How changes will affect woodlands
Lots of new growing space
not well suited to current species
More invasive species
(and other non-natives)
70. Review of Section 2:
Climate change projections and
possible impacts
About climate change
Projected range shifts
Possible impact scenarios
71. What we’ll cover
Section 1:
How Minnesota’s current forests came to be
Section 2:
Climate change projections and possible impacts
Section 3:
What woodland owners can do
72. Background: Climate change ecology
Three strategies:
1. Resistance
2. Resilience
3. Facilitation
Galatowitsch et al, 2009. Download from http://z.umn.edu/climatestrat
73. Strategy 1: Resistance
Actions: Increasing water
supply, reducing herbivory
& invasive species, fighting
insect and disease
outbreaks, manipulating
disturbance regimes.
Photo by Patrick Lanham on Flickr.
Used with permission.
75. Strategy: Resistance
Action: When you notice
change, act on it!
Deal with insect &
disease threats.
Notice new species
moving in. Consider
removing them.
Photo: Lee Frelich
CURA Reporter, Jan/Feb 2010
80. Strategy 3: Facilitation
“Actions to mimic, assist, or
enable ongoing natural
adaptive processes such as
species dispersal,
colonization, and
disturbance.”
CAUTION!
Photo by Bankshot on Flickr.
Used with permission.
81. Pollen Viewer American Indian
lands by treaty
Slide source: Lee Frelich, UMN-FR
83. Strategy: Facilitation
Action: Keep forest
land forested
Trees are made of
atmospheric carbon
Growing trees remove
carbon from the
atmosphere
Soil & water protection,
wildlife habitat
85. Review of Section 3:
What woodland owners can do
Strategies and actions:
1. Resistance: Monitor, record, remove invaders
2. Resilience: Thin, eradicate, maintain diversity
3. Facilitation: Keep forest land forested, work with a
professional
About climate changeProjected range shiftsPossible impact scenarios
Source: IPCC AR4 WG1 Chapter 2, FAQ 2.1, Figure 1. Atmospheric concentrations of important long-lived greenhouse gases over the last 2,000 years. Increases since about 1750 are attributed to human activities in the industrial era. Concentration units are parts per million (ppm) or parts per billion (ppb), indicating the number of molecules of the greenhouse gas per million or billion air molecules, respectively, in an atmospheric sample. (Data combined and simplified from Chapters 6 and 2 of this report.)URL: http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-chapter2.pdf
http://www.ipcc.ch/
Caption in original: “Except for a leveling off between the 1940s and 1970s, Earth's surface temperatures have increased since 1880. The last decade has brought the temperatures to the highest levels ever recorded. The graph shows global annual surface temperatures relative to 1951-1980 mean temperatures. As shown by the red line, long-term trends are more apparent when temperatures are averaged over a five year period. (Image credit: NASA/GISS)” Source: http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/news/20100121/
Slide from Mark Seeley showing Minnesota’s annual temperature history with 5-year tendencies (moving averages). Clearly shows a warming trend in past 25 years.
Slide from Mark Seeley showing Minnesota’s seasonal temperature history with 5-year tendencies (moving averages). Warming more pronounced/consistent in past 25 years than before.
Slide from Mark Seeley showing Minnesota’s annual precipitation history with 5-year tendencies (moving averages). Seasonal differences less pronounced for precip than temp.
Slide from Mark Seeley showing Minnesota’s annual precipitation history with 5-year tendencies (moving averages). Seasonal differences less pronounced for precipthan temp.
Source: http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/2008_temps.htmlNext: How changes will affect daily life.
“[A]ctions… that oppose changes associated with a shifting climate, will be most useful for overcoming small magnitudes of climate change… [or]… to save native species for the short term.”
Conservation Volunteer: “A resilience strategy seeks to boost a forest's immune system through diversity—mixed tree and plant species, and mixed stands of young, mature, and old trees.”
Galatowitsch et al 2009: “Facilitation actions could ‘‘mimic, assist, or enable ongoing natural adaptive processes such as species dispersal and migration, population mortality and colonization, changes in species dominances and community composition, and changing disturbance regimes” (Millar et al., 2007). The high level of fragmentation in southern Minnesota and southward into Iowa means that many immigrating colonists may not accomplish range shifts without assistance if they cannot adapt in place. Landscape corridors, often touted as a way to foster range shifts, are unlikely to be an effective strategy for much of Minnesota given the amount of acquisition and restoration required to create corridors through agricultural landscapes and the low probability that many plant species will jump to these corridors and move at a rate that keeps pace with climate change.”
Galatowitsch et al 2009: “Facilitation actions could ‘‘mimic, assist, or enable ongoing natural adaptive processes such as species dispersal and migration, population mortality and colonization, changes in species dominances and community composition, and changing disturbance regimes” (Millar et al., 2007). The high level of fragmentation in southern Minnesota and southward into Iowa means that many immigrating colonists may not accomplish range shifts without assistance if they cannot adapt in place. Landscape corridors, often touted as a way to foster range shifts, are unlikely to be an effective strategy for much of Minnesota given the amount of acquisition and restoration required to create corridors through agricultural landscapes and the low probability that many plant species will jump to these corridors and move at a rate that keeps pace with climate change.”
Glacial historyFour biomesHuman impactsActive management & regrowth