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Minnesota Woodlands and
Climate Change
Eli Sagor
esagor@umn.edu

March 2012
About this presentation

Historic change: Context
Expected future change
Action-oriented: What you can do in your woods
All of the content is online

Text, recording of this presentation, links:



   http://z.umn.edu/MWCC
What we’ll cover

Section 1:
  How Minnesota’s current forests came to be
Section 2:
  Climate change projections and possible impacts
Section 3:
  What woodland owners can do
Glacial history


Four major periods

Wisconsin glaciation
75,000-10,000 y.a.
Covered most of
Minnesota




                       Creative Commons licensed
                         Flickr photo by Paul Keller
©University of Minnesota Press:
       J. Tester, 1995. Fig. 1.9
Post-glacial landscape
    Barren glacial till, little life present




                                               Creative Commons licensed
                                                 Flickr photo by Terekhova
Soil slowly forms

Climate

Organic matter inputs

Chemical weathering




                  Creative Commons licensed
             Flickr photo by Thomas Ormston
© University of Minnesota Press:
J. Tester, 1995. Fig. 1.6
Source: J. Tester,
1995. Fig. 1.22
Laurentian mixed forest


         Aspen
         Parklands




                      Laurentian
                      Mixed Forest




          Prairie            Eastern
          Parklands          Broadleaf
                             Forest
Eastern broadleaf forest


          Aspen
          Parklands




                       Laurentian
                       Mixed Forest




           Prairie            Eastern
           Parklands          Broadleaf
                              Forest
Prairie parkland


          Aspen
          Parklands




                       Laurentian
                       Mixed Forest




           Prairie            Eastern
           Parklands          Broadleaf
                              Forest
Minnesota’s 4 biomes

                Aspen
                Parklands



                             Laurentian
                             Mixed Forest




                     Prairie         Eastern
                     Parklands       Broadleaf
                                     Forest
More info on
Minnesota’s biomes

MN DNR’s Ecological
Classification System site

http://www.dnr.state.mn.us/
ecs

Or Google “MN DNR ECS”
Pollen Viewer                   American Indian
                                lands by treaty

National Climatic Data Center
Google “Pollen Viewer”
Pollen Viewer   American Indian
                lands by treaty
Pollen Viewer   American Indian
                lands by treaty
Pollen Viewer   American Indian
                lands by treaty
Pollen Viewer   American Indian
                lands by treaty
Pollen Viewer   American Indian
                lands by treaty
Pollen Viewer   American Indian
                lands by treaty
Pollen Viewer   American Indian
                lands by treaty
Pollen Viewer   American Indian
                lands by treaty
Pollen Viewer   American Indian
                lands by treaty
Pollen Viewer   American Indian
                lands by treaty
Pollen Viewer   American Indian
                lands by treaty
Pollen Viewer   American Indian
                lands by treaty
Pollen Viewer   American Indian
                lands by treaty
Pollen Viewer   American Indian
                lands by treaty
Pollen Viewer   American Indian
                lands by treaty
Pollen Viewer   American Indian
                lands by treaty
Pollen Viewer   American Indian
                lands by treaty
Pollen Viewer   American Indian
                lands by treaty
Pollen Viewer   American Indian
                lands by treaty
Pollen Viewer   American Indian
                lands by treaty
Pollen Viewer   American Indian
                lands by treaty
Pollen Viewer   American Indian
                lands by treaty
Pollen Viewer   American Indian
                lands by treaty
Human impacts since 19th c.


    American Indian:
      Burning
      Dispersed settlement
Human impacts


   European American, 19thc. - present
     PLSS and land conveyance: colonization
     Timber harvest: 1850s – 1920s
     Fires, then fire suppression
   Regrowth and sustainable management
Public Land Survey
System and land
conveyance
Timber harvest, 19th c.




Minnesota Historical Society photo
Minnesota Historical Society photos
Minnesota Historical Society photo
Minnesota Historical Society photo
Minnesota forests are resilient
Review of Section 1:
How Minnesota’s current forests came to be

Glaciers
Four biomes
Human impacts
Active management &regrowth
What we’ll cover

Section 1:
  How Minnesota’s current forests came to be
Section 2:
  Climate change projections and possible impacts
Section 3:
  What woodland owners can do
Greenhouse gas concentrations, past 2000 years




IPCC 2007: AR4,
  WG1, FAQ 2.1
Earth’s surface temp, 1880-2009




             Blue line = average
             temp 1950-1980




NASA GISS
MN annual temperature history 1895-
2007
MN seasonal temperature history 1895-
2007
NASA: 10 warmest years
Minnesota Woodlands and Climate Change
Impacts on Minnesota woodlands
How these slides work




                  Source: USFS Climate Change Atlas for Northeast US Tree
                                    Species: http://www.nrs.fs.fed.us/atlas/
Range shifts: Red oak




      FIA current                   100-yr prediction
                                      (average of 5
                                         models)

                    Source: USFS Climate Change Atlas for Northeast US Tree
                                      Species: http://www.nrs.fs.fed.us/atlas/
Range shifts: White pine




       FIA current                   100-yr prediction
                                       (average of 5
                                          models)

                     Source: USFS Climate Change Atlas for Northeast US Tree
                                       Species: http://www.nrs.fs.fed.us/atlas/
Range shifts: Trembling aspen




      FIA current                   100-yr prediction
                                      (average of 5
                                         models)

                    Source: USFS Climate Change Atlas for Northeast US Tree
                                      Species: http://www.nrs.fs.fed.us/atlas/
Range shifts: forest types




           FIA current                            100-yr prediction
                                                    (average of 5
                                                       models)

                         Source: USFS Climate Change Atlas for Northeast US Tree
                                           Species: http://www.nrs.fs.fed.us/atlas/
2095 seasonal
climate
comparisons




Union of Concerned Scientists
report:
http://www.ucsusa.org/greatlakes/pd
f/minnesota.pdf
Bottom line:
   Most ranges shift to the north and east
How changes will affect woodlands

    LIKELY: Longer, more severe droughts...
How changes will affect woodlands
     LIKELY: Longer, more severe droughts...
       …and more frequent catastrophic events




                           Minnesota DNR photo
                           Source: www.forestryimages.org
How changes will affect woodlands
                      Longer, more severe droughts...
                            …and more frequent
                             catastrophic events




                             Decline in vigor and resilience
                                    of native stands

             Photo by Dave Hanson, UMN Extension
             CURA Reporter, Jan/Feb 2010
How changes will affect woodlands

Decline in vigor and resilience of
           native stands




   Lots of new growing space
not well suited to current species

                Photo by Joseph O’Brien, USDA Forest Service
                                      www.forestryimages.org
How changes will affect woodlands

   Lots of new growing space
not well suited to current species




     More invasive species
    (and other non-natives)
Greatest change near the border




Left: © University of Minnesota Press:
J. Tester, 1995. Fig. 1.6
Right: MN DNR map image
Review of Section 2:
Climate change projections and
possible impacts

About climate change
Projected range shifts
Possible impact scenarios
What we’ll cover

Section 1:
  How Minnesota’s current forests came to be
Section 2:
  Climate change projections and possible impacts
Section 3:
  What woodland owners can do
Background: Climate change ecology

Three strategies:

1. Resistance
2. Resilience
3. Facilitation




Galatowitsch et al, 2009. Download from http://z.umn.edu/climatestrat
Strategy 1: Resistance

Actions: Increasing water
supply, reducing herbivory
& invasive species, fighting
insect and disease
outbreaks, manipulating
disturbance regimes.




                              Photo by Patrick Lanham on Flickr.
                                          Used with permission.
Strategy: Resistance
Action: Monitor

Notice changes:

Insect outbreaks,
dieback, mortality

New regeneration,
improved growth

Invasive species

Keep good records!
Strategy: Resistance
            Action: When you notice
            change, act on it!
            Deal with insect &
            disease threats.

            Notice new species
            moving in. Consider
            removing them.




Photo: Lee Frelich
CURA Reporter, Jan/Feb 2010
Strategy: Resilience

Actions: Maintain species
and age class diversity,
maintain vigor and health,
reduce fragmentation.
Strategy: Resilience
Action: Thinning &
stand improvement
Thinning your woods
Strategy: Resilience
Action: Eradicate


Eradicate or control
insects, disease, and
invasives
Strategy: Resilience
Action: Diversify
species & ages
Underplant from your
property or nearby.

Maintain variety of age
classes.
Strategy 3: Facilitation

“Actions to mimic, assist, or
enable ongoing natural
adaptive processes such as
species dispersal,
colonization, and
disturbance.”

CAUTION!




                   Photo by Bankshot on Flickr.
                         Used with permission.
Pollen Viewer          American Indian
                       lands by treaty




                Slide source: Lee Frelich, UMN-FR
Strategy: Facilitation
Action: Professional
assistance
Moving species has caused
huge problems: Buckthorn.

Moving native species from
within the region carries
less risk.

Be careful!




                Photo by Bankshot on Flickr.
                      Used with permission.
Strategy: Facilitation
Action: Keep forest
land forested
Trees are made of
atmospheric carbon

Growing trees remove
carbon from the
atmosphere

Soil & water protection,
wildlife habitat
Minnesota Woodlands and Climate Change
Review of Section 3:
What woodland owners can do

Strategies and actions:
   1. Resistance: Monitor, record, remove invaders
   2. Resilience: Thin, eradicate, maintain diversity
   3. Facilitation: Keep forest land forested, work with a
      professional
Bottom line

Woodland owners have a tremendous
 stewardship opportunity and responsibility.
For more information:


Slides and recording:
http://z.umn.edu/MWCC



Eli Sagor
esagor@umn.edu

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Minnesota Woodlands and Climate Change

Hinweis der Redaktion

  1. Glacial historyFour biomesHuman impactsActive management & regrowth
  2. Glacial historyFour biomesHuman impactsActive management & regrowth
  3. Glacial historyFour biomesHuman impactsActive management & regrowth
  4. Photo: http://www.flickr.com/photos/paulk/82801769/
  5. http://www.flickr.com/photos/terekhova/2434108621/
  6. Photo: http://www.flickr.com/photos/thomas_ormston/1506395669/
  7. About climate changeProjected range shiftsPossible impact scenarios
  8. Source: IPCC AR4 WG1 Chapter 2, FAQ 2.1, Figure 1. Atmospheric concentrations of important long-lived greenhouse gases over the last 2,000 years. Increases since about 1750 are attributed to human activities in the industrial era. Concentration units are parts per million (ppm) or parts per billion (ppb), indicating the number of molecules of the greenhouse gas per million or billion air molecules, respectively, in an atmospheric sample. (Data combined and simplified from Chapters 6 and 2 of this report.)URL: http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-chapter2.pdf
  9. http://www.ipcc.ch/
  10. Caption in original: “Except for a leveling off between the 1940s and 1970s, Earth's surface temperatures have increased since 1880. The last decade has brought the temperatures to the highest levels ever recorded. The graph shows global annual surface temperatures relative to 1951-1980 mean temperatures. As shown by the red line, long-term trends are more apparent when temperatures are averaged over a five year period. (Image credit: NASA/GISS)” Source: http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/news/20100121/
  11. Slide from Mark Seeley showing Minnesota’s annual temperature history with 5-year tendencies (moving averages). Clearly shows a warming trend in past 25 years.
  12. Slide from Mark Seeley showing Minnesota’s seasonal temperature history with 5-year tendencies (moving averages). Warming more pronounced/consistent in past 25 years than before.
  13. Slide from Mark Seeley showing Minnesota’s annual precipitation history with 5-year tendencies (moving averages). Seasonal differences less pronounced for precip than temp.
  14. Slide from Mark Seeley showing Minnesota’s annual precipitation history with 5-year tendencies (moving averages). Seasonal differences less pronounced for precipthan temp.
  15. Source: http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/2008_temps.htmlNext: How changes will affect daily life.
  16. http://select.nytimes.com/gst/abstract.html?res=F20D17FA3C550C708CDDAA0894DF404482Next: Models
  17. “[A]ctions… that oppose changes associated with a shifting climate, will be most useful for overcoming small magnitudes of climate change… [or]… to save native species for the short term.”
  18. Conservation Volunteer: “A resilience strategy seeks to boost a forest's immune system through diversity—mixed tree and plant species, and mixed stands of young, mature, and old trees.”
  19. Galatowitsch et al 2009: “Facilitation actions could ‘‘mimic, assist, or enable ongoing natural adaptive processes such as species dispersal and migration, population mortality and colonization, changes in species dominances and community composition, and changing disturbance regimes” (Millar et al., 2007). The high level of fragmentation in southern Minnesota and southward into Iowa means that many immigrating colonists may not accomplish range shifts without assistance if they cannot adapt in place. Landscape corridors, often touted as a way to foster range shifts, are unlikely to be an effective strategy for much of Minnesota given the amount of acquisition and restoration required to create corridors through agricultural landscapes and the low probability that many plant species will jump to these corridors and move at a rate that keeps pace with climate change.”
  20. Galatowitsch et al 2009: “Facilitation actions could ‘‘mimic, assist, or enable ongoing natural adaptive processes such as species dispersal and migration, population mortality and colonization, changes in species dominances and community composition, and changing disturbance regimes” (Millar et al., 2007). The high level of fragmentation in southern Minnesota and southward into Iowa means that many immigrating colonists may not accomplish range shifts without assistance if they cannot adapt in place. Landscape corridors, often touted as a way to foster range shifts, are unlikely to be an effective strategy for much of Minnesota given the amount of acquisition and restoration required to create corridors through agricultural landscapes and the low probability that many plant species will jump to these corridors and move at a rate that keeps pace with climate change.”
  21. Glacial historyFour biomesHuman impactsActive management & regrowth