Influencing policy (training slides from Fast Track Impact)
Final year project proposal
1. Analyzing the shortcomings of Flood Early warning system in
Pakistan
Proposed By:
Dawood Jan
Ismail Khan
Kiramat Ullah
Supervised By: Dr. Khurram Shehzad
Department of Civil Engineering
Gandhara Institute of Science and Technology Peshawar
Peshawar
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3. Overflow or inundation that comes from water body may cause or
threatens damage. It may be caused due to:
▪ High rainfall
▪ Snow melting
▪ Breaching of embankments of a canal
▪ Failure of Dam/reservoir
▪ Deforestation (anthropogenic cause)
Floods without proper warning and forecast may cause the loss of:
▪ Human Lives
▪ Infrastructure
▪ Livestock
▪ crops
Pakistan has been struck by 150 major disasters in the last 65 years in
which most are floods.
Floods in July 2010, affected about 20 million Pakistanis and inundated an
area of 100,000 sq-km of the country, and 2000 casualties has been
recorded.
Overall loss of US $ 10.05 Billions.
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4. To prevent this situation, efforts be made urgently to acquire the best
early warning system in order to save lives and protect livelihoods.
Radio, Television, Newspaper and social media should be utilized for
conveying early warnings to population at risk.
The agencies responsible for warnings propagation and flood forecasting
in Pakistan.
Pakistan Metrological Department
Federal Flood Commission
National Disaster Management Authority
WAPDA
Irrigation Department
Local Authorities
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5. UNESCO worked for the early warning systems over the world.
Program started in Pakistan, funded with a $3.5-million grant from Tokyo, will
install a flood-forecasting system using satellite-based rainfall data at government
agencies, including the Pakistan Meteorological Department. It will also carry out
risk mapping of flood plains along the Indus River. 1
Use of Weather radars in flood forecasting, remote area can be monitored through
these radars which are not physically accessible.
Hydrological information development system may created by using GIS and
hydrological watershed parameters such as.3
Design storm
Soil hydrology
Time of concentration
Runoff coefficient
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6. Early warning system for flood in Pakistan is not covering the upper
Indus above Tarbela and Kabul river above Nowshehra.4
Pakistan warning system for flood has poor mapping.
Poor early warning system for floods may increase the damages of
the livelihoods and also infrastructures.
Poor flood forecasting is the cause of disastrous affects on the
people at risk.
Poor warnings may increase the post flood cost in case of urban
floods.
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7. To investigate the shortcomings of flood forecasting
To investigate the shortcomings of communication of flood
warning
To investigate the shortcomings of mechanism of flood
preparedness
Recommends the set of actions and corresponding resource
requirements that need to be undertaken in order to
enhance the effectiveness of Flood early warning system in
Pakistan.
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8. Finding the Current conditions of early warning system of floods in Pakistan
that are:
Density of gauge stations
Forecasting model in place
Efficiency of flood forecasting model
▪ Accuracy
▪ Authenticity of forecasting
▪ Conveying Timing of warnings
▪ Reliability
Recognition of weak zones (if any) in early warning system for floods in
Pakistan.
Role of responsible agencies in early warning system
Comparison with international standards of early warning system for
hydrological disasters
Suggest the initiatives for improvement of early warning system for flood.
Writing the final report.
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10. 1. http://www.trust.org/alertnet/news/forecasting-system-to-help-pakistan-manage-floods/
2. Awan, S. A. (2010) Flood forecasting and management in Pakistan, use of Weather radars, page 92-
94.
3. Olivera et al., (1995). Olivera and Maidment (1998, 1999) and U.S Army used GIS technique.
4. Annual flood report (2010), Federal flood commission, Ministry of Water & Power, “Future
mitigation strategies” P-44
5. Annual flood report (2010), Federal flood commission, Ministry of Water & Power, P-42
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