This is a technology foresight using the Scenario Planning method that addresses the focal issue: "How can we integrate fintech and agriculture so that low-cost and/or appropriately priced financial instruments and services are more accessible to PH farmers by the year 2027?" The Philippines remains as one of the top agricultural producers of the world. According to IndexMundi, the Philippines ranked 22nd in terms of agricultultural production with around USD 30.7 billion value of output created in 2018. The Philippines has 30 million hectares of land area, where 23 percent is agricultural land (Philippine Statistics Authority, 2017). The estimated contribution of the sector in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the country is around 10 percent. However, the sector’s contribution to the GDP contributed by the sector is continually decreasing (Philippine Statistics Authority, 2021). The Philippines is in the best position to have an agriculture-driven economy. But the sight of it is far beyond as the sector has been pressed with persistent challenges. In order to conduct the technology foresight for the Agrifintech, three scenarios were created based on the identified Key Predictable Variables (KPV) and Critical Uncertainties (CU) which were clustered together to separate the high-impact, high uncertainty from the high-impact, low-uncertainty graph points.

1. Cardama | Cortez | Doctor | Gonowon | Jocusol
Laurente | Ocasla | Santiago | Sueno | Sy | Ty
Glen A. Imbang
Professor
Technology Foresight
In partial fulfillment of the requirements for the subject
TM 281 - Strategic Technology Planning
2nd Semester, AY 2020-2021

2. “
STAGE 1
❑ Focal issue identification
❑ Objectives of the exercise
❑ Appropriate participants
❑ Timeframe
2

3. 1. Focal Issue
How can we integrate fintech and agriculture so that low-cost
and/or appropriately priced financial instruments and services are
more accessible to PH farmers by the year 2027?
3

4. Objective of the exercise
To see the future of the agriculture sector of the Philippines,
particularly the farming industry, with the integration of
financial technology.
4
Appropriate Participants
Agricultural FinTech will directly affect local farmers, commercial
and agricultural banks, credit cooperatives/ unions, formal and
informal lending institutions, and the government.
05
years
TIMEFRAME
2022 - 2027

5. “
STAGE 2
STEEPS
5

6. 6
❖ Genetics(seeds), mechanization, fertilizers, and pesticides
❖ Green Revolution
❖ Hybrid seeds
❖ Agritecture
❖ Genetically modified organisms (GMO)
Scientific

7. 7
❖ Data science and innovative digital tools empowering farmers
❖ Financial technology platforms
❖ Agricultural equipment and robotics (solar-powered irrigation
systems)
❖ Smart Farming (farm management software)
❖ Drones to spray fertilizers
❖ Establishment of Blockchain
Technological

8. 8
❖ Increase in productivity and economizing costs
❖ Inflation
❖ Financial penetration especially in rural areas
❖ Challenges of rice sector
❖ GDP
Economic

9. 9
❖ Green policies:
● interventions promoting the adoption of green technologies
● limiting greenhouse gas emissions
● incentivizing waste usage in production activities
● minimizing the use of synthetic fertilizers and pesticides
● encouraging material recycling and the use of biodegradable packaging
● facilitating adoption of renewable energy sources
● supporting reforestation initiatives
❖ Local initiatives launched for environment protection and DRRM
❖ Paris Agreement agenda and the Sustainable Development Goals
(SDGs) of the Agenda 2030
Environmental

10. 10
Political
❖ Government policy in identifying qualified farmers for financial
assistance (such as loan, subsidy, etc.)
❖ Banking and Financial regulations (documentation, frequency of
loan)
❖ Intellectual property policies
❖ Adoption of Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) policies

11. 11
❖ Global shift towards cashless and contactless transactions
❖ Filipino economic and psychosocial capacity to handle
cashless transactions
❖ Financial literacy and financial inclusion
Social

12. Potential abuse of the system
Unpredictable trends and disruption, many emerging
new entrants
Breach of data privacy issue
Possible hacking/lost of data
Potential impersonation and other diverse security
issues (e.g. impersonation, scams, etc.)
Regulations related to this kind of service
Too slow in the development for this kind of technology
THREATS
STRENGTHS
Growth in the agriculture sector
Increased total land area
Initiatives of the Department of Agriculture
Emergence of AgriTech and agricultural
innovations
WEAKNESSES
Lack or limited access to internet
Lack of infrastructure
Limited budget and capacity
Need for reliable and secure platforms
Consumer mindset
PhilSys transitions the country into a digital
economy
Emergence of new fintech innovations
Microfinance revolution
Widespread adoption of blockchain
technologies
Options for digital payment systems without
internet connection
OPPORTUNITIES

13. “
STAGE 3
Identifying Key Predictable Variables
13

14. Does the identified
variable impact the
focal issue?
14

15. 15
Scientific
Variable Yes No
Genetics (seeds), fertilizers and
pesticides
✅
Green Revolution ✅
Utilization of Hybrid Seeds ✅
Growth of Agritecture ✅
Genetically Modified Organisms
(GMOs)
✅
Agronomy and Agricultural
Biotechnology
✅
Variable Yes No
Data Science and Innovative
Digital Tools Empowering
Farmers
✅
Financial Technology Platforms
(National)
✅
Agricultural Equipment and
Robotics (Solar-powered
Irrigation Systems)
✅
Smart Farming (Farm
Management Software)
✅
Drones to Spray Fertilizers ✅
Technological

16. 16
Economic
Environmental
Variable Yes No
Increase in Productivity and
Economizing Costs
✅
Inflation ✅
Financial Penetration
(Especially in Rural Areas)
✅
Competitiveness of Rice Sector ✅
GDP ✅
Variable Yes No
Green Policies ✅
Local Initiatives Launched for
Environment Protection and
DRRM
✅
Paris Agreement Agenda and
the Sustainable Development
Goals (SDGs) of the Agenda
2030
✅
Adoption of Renewable Energy
Sources
✅

17. 17
Political
Social
Variable Yes No
Government Policy in Identifying
Qualified Farmers for Financial
Assistance (such as loan, subsidy,
etc.)
✅
Money Laundering ✅
Data Privacy and Cybersecurity ✅
Banking and Financial Regulations
(documentation, frequency of loan)
✅
Intellectual Property Policies ✅
Adoption of Environmental, Social,
and Governance (ESG) Policies
✅
Variable Yes No
Filipino Economic and
Psychosocial Capacity to
Handle Cashless Transactions
✅
Global Shift Towards Cashless
and Contactless Transactions
✅
Number of Filipinos with
Access to Internet & Smart
Phones
✅
Technological Infrastructure in
the Philippines
✅
Financial Literacy and Financial
Inclusion
✅
Initiatives / Funding Programs
that Boost Agriculture Sector’s
Appeal to Younger Generations
✅

18. 18
❖ Genetics (seeds),
fertilizers and pesticides
❖ Utilization of Hybrid
Seeds
❖ Agronomy and
Agricultural
Biotechnology
❖ Data Science and
Innovative Digital Tools
Empowering Farmers
❖ Financial Technology
Platforms
❖ Agricultural Equipment
and Robotics
❖ Smart Farming
❖ Increase in Productivity
and Economizing Costs
❖ Inflation
❖ Financial Penetration
❖ Competitiveness of Rice
Sector
❖ GDP
❖ Local Initiatives
Launched for
Environment Protection
and DRRM
❖ Government Policy in
Identifying Qualified Farmers
for Financial Assistance
❖ Money Laundering
❖ Data Privacy and
Cybersecurity
❖ Banking and Financial
Regulations
❖ IP Policies
❖ Filipino Economic and
Psychosocial Capacity
❖ Global Shift Towards Cashless
and Contactless Transactions
❖ Filipinos with Access to Internet
& Smart Phones
❖ Technological Infrastructure in
PH
❖ Financial Literacy and Inclusion
❖ Initiatives / Funding Programs
that Boost Agriculture Sector’s
Appeal to the Youth
Technological
Scientific Economic
Environmental Political Social

19. “
STAGE 4
Identifying Critical Uncertainties
19

20. IDENTIFYING CRITICAL
UNCERTAINTIES
◍ Impact of Change in Leadership
○ The 2022 Elections is likely to have a strong impact on all
aspects of society moving forward.
◍ Change in Policies/Standards Governing FinTech
and/or the Regulators’ Appetite towards FinTech
○ FinTechs implementing the cashless systems may need to
adhere to the changing policies, either with the local or
international standards.
20

21. IDENTIFYING CRITICAL
UNCERTAINTIES
◍ Fluctuation in Crop Yields
○ Agricultural products are dependent on several factors, which
result in differences and inconsistencies in crop yields.
◍ Tenurial Arrangement of Leased Lands
○ Generally, land is being rented by smallholder farmers, thus
the hesitations in making long-term improvements in the land.
21

22. IDENTIFYING CRITICAL
UNCERTAINTIES
◍ Financial Inclusion
○ Farmers without acceptable identification documents may
encounter difficulties in opening bank accounts and/or
mobile wallets.
◍ Access to Financial Instruments in Rural Areas
○ Development in various parts of the country will help drive
the supply and demand for financial tools and services.
22

23. IDENTIFYING CRITICAL
UNCERTAINTIES
◍ Coverage of High-Quality Internet in Rural Areas
○ With the entry of the third telco, spread of high quality
internet may come sooner, rather than later
◍ Technology Problems
○ Glitches, outages, and innocent mistakes might cause
problems leaving the user with the inability to use his/her
money when needed.
23

24. IDENTIFYING CRITICAL
UNCERTAINTIES
◍ Risks/Damages Due to Natural Disasters and
Calamities
○ The Philippines is susceptible to several natural disasters,
given its geographic location.
Increased incidence of diseases and pests brought about
by natural phenomena, which may result in affecting the
produce/yield of farmers.
◍ Litigation Due to Non-payment of Loans
24

25. “
STAGE 5
Clustering of Variables
25

26. 26
CLUSTERS
Funding Tech Infrastructure Economic Adoption & Literacy
Consumer Rights &
Protection
Productivity Politics & Regulatory Resilience

27. 27
KPV Cluster Key Predictable Variables
Productivity - KPV 1 Genetics (seeds), mechanization, fertilizers and pesticides,
Utilization of Hybrid Seeds & Agronomy and Agricultural
Biotechnology
Tech infrastructure - KPV 2 Data science and innovative digital tools empowering
farmers, Financial technology platforms (national),
Agricultural equipment and robotics & Smart Farming
Economic Indicator - KPV 3 Increase in productivity and economizing costs, Inflation,
Financial penetration esp in rural areas , Competitiveness of
rice sector, GDP
Resilience - KPV 4 Local initiatives launched for environment protection and
DRRM
Politics & Regulatory - KPV 5 Government policy in identifying qualified farmers for
financial assistance,Banking and Financial regulations &
Intellectual properties policies
Consumer Rights & Protection- KPV 6 Anti Money Laundering & Data Privacy and Cybersecurity
Adoption & Literacy - KPV 7 Filipino economic and psychosocial capacity to handle
cashless transactions, Global shift towards cashless and
contactless transactions, Financial literacy and financial
inclusion
Funding - KPV 8 Appeal of agriculture sector (farming) to younger
generations

28. 28
CU Cluster Critical Uncertainties
Funding - CU 1 Access to financial instruments in rural areas & Litigation
due to non-payment of loans
Tech Infrastructure - CU 2 Coverage of high-quality internet in rural areas &
Technology Problems
Economic Indicator - CU 3 Fluctuation in crop yields
Resilience - CU 4 Risks / damages due to Natural Disasters and Calamities
Adoption & Literacy - CU 5 Financial inclusion
Politics & Regulatory - CU 6 Impact of change in leadership (2022 elections), Change in
Policies/Standards Governing Fintechs and / or the
regulators’ appetite towards Fintech & Tenurial arrangement
of leased lands

29. “
STAGE 6
Ranking of Variables
29

30. 30
KPVs
Cluster Impact Uncertainty
1. Productivity 5 7
2. Tech infrastructure 10 9
3. Economic Indicator 8 7
4. Resilience 5 6
5. Politics & Regulatory 10 8
6. Consumer Rights &
Protection
5 6
7. Adoption & Literacy 10 5
8. Funding 10 5

31. 31
CUs
Cluster Impact Uncertainty
1. Funding 9 8
2. Tech
Infrastructure
10 9
3. Economic
Indicator
8 7
4. Resilience 5 6
5. Adoption &
Literacy
10 9
6. Politics &
Regulatory
10 8

32. Impact and
Uncertainty of
Variables
Y:
UNCERTAINTY
X: IMPACT
CU 4
KPV
6
KPV
4
KPV
1
KPV
7
KPV
8
CU 3
KPV
3
CU
6
KPV
5
CU 1
KPV
2
CU
2
CU
5

33. “
STAGE 7
Selection of Scenario Logic
33

34. Impact and
Uncertainty of
Variables
Y:
UNCERTAINTY
X: IMPACT
CU 4
KPV
6
KPV
4
KPV
1
KPV
7
KPV
8
CU 3
KPV
3
CU
6
KPV
5
CU 1
KPV
2
CU
2
CU
5

35. 35
SCENARIOS LEGEND CLUSTER
Scenario 1:
CHILL LANG
TAYO!!!
CU-5
KPV-3
Adoption & Literacy (CU)
Economic Indicator
Scenario 2:
NASAAN KA
NANG
KAILANGAN NA
KITA?!
CU-2
KPV-7
Tech Infrastructure (CU)
Adoption & Literacy
(KPV)
Scenario 3:
TAKE MY
MONEY!!!
KPV-2
KPV-8
Tech Infrastructure (KPV)
Funding (KPV)

36. SCENARIO 1:
CHILL LANG TAYO
36
Even if the agricultural
sector contributes to the
growth of the economy,
the acceptance of the
farmers to agri fintech is
not evident

37. SCENARIO 2:
NASAAN KA NANG
KAILANGAN KITA?!
37
Farmers are ready to
adopt the technology but
the platform and
infrastructure is not yet
ready for deployment

38. SCENARIO 3:
38
TAKE MY MONEY!
Government funding is
available but the
technology is not yet
materialized

39. “
STAGE 8
Development of Scenarios
39

40. SCENARIO 1: Chill Lang Tayo!
40
CU-5 = Adoption & Literacy (CU) KPV-3 = Economic Indicator (KPV)
Majority of the farmers have no access to financial
products (such as bank accounts, loans, deposits,
insurance, etc.) and are not equipped with the
knowledge and skills to make financial decisions.
Since the agriculture sector is contributing to the
economic growth, there is a huge potential for
high yield, thus the country’s GDP is improving.
Rice Competitiveness
Enhancement Fund
(RCEF) Program
Financial Literacy
Programs (partnership
with TESDA)
Emergence of
Agri-Fintech platforms
across the country

41. SCENARIO 2: Nasaan Ka Nang Kailangan Kita?
41
CU-2 = Tech Infrastructure (CU) KPV-7 = Adoption & Literacy (KPV)
In the Philippines, only 17.7 percent of all households
have Internet connection, according to the National
ICT Household Survey. Moreover, seven out of 10
barangays do not have access to fiber-optic cables,
while 64 percent lack access to cellular towers.
The BSP reported that as a result of the pandemic,
the use of e-payments has spiked more than 5,000%
(Hilotin, 2021), thanks to the increasingly ubiquitous
use of QR codes to move money between people and
merchants.
Availability of financial
products to all farmers
Tech infrastructure in
rural areas is limited
Farmers lose interest
due to lack of facilities

42. SCENARIO 3: Take My Money!
42
KPV-2 = Tech Infrastructure (KPV) KPV-8 = Funding
Financial technology platforms and digital tools to
support and integrate fintech and agriculture are not
yet developed or have not fully materialized.
There are plans/programs and budget allocation
for the agriculture sector to support agri fintech.
Government’s
consistent fund
allocation to farmers
Advancement in tech
infrastructure used by
farmers
Country’s economic
opportunities (GDP)
flourish

43. “
STAGE 9
Assessment of Scenario Coherence
43

44. SCENARIO 1: Chill Lang Tayo!
44
Coverage Key Events Impacts
1 Farmers
RCEF is fully-implemented or has
been completed
Confident + Competitive + Profitable
2 Agri Fintech Start-ups
Emergence of agri-fintech startup
locally
Accessibility + Ripple Effect + Competition
among lenders and financial institutions
3 Rice supply
Increase export volume of rice to
neighboring ASEAN countries
Contribution of Agriculture Sector to the
GDP will increase + Food Security
Even if the agricultural sector contributes to the growth of the economy,
the acceptance of the farmers to agri fintech is not evident.
ECONOMIC
KPV-3 = Economic Indicator
SOCIAL/CULTURAL
CU-5 = Adoption & Literacy

45. SCENARIO 2: Nasaan Ka Nang Kailangan Kita?
45
Coverage Key Events Impacts
1 Farmers Complete implementation of DFP101
Completing the DFP101 will enable farmers
to be trained and equipped with agri fintech
literacy
2 Government (DICT)
Establishment of the
Connect-Connect-Connect initiative
Better ICT infrastructure + Wider coverage +
Better access to agri fintech
3 Community
Complete implementation of DFP101
and establishment of the
Connect-Connect-Connect initiative
Better access to infrastructure + platform
Farmers are ready to adopt the technology but the platform and infrastructure is not yet ready for deployment.
TECHNOLOGICAL
CU-2 = Tech Infrastructure
SOCIAL/CULTURAL
KPV-7 = Adoption & Literacy

46. SCENARIO 3: Take My Money!
46
Coverage Key Events Impacts
1 Government
Establishment of government funded
programs designed to boost agri
fintech
Financial technology platforms as tool
for farmers in accessing funding
support
2
Banks and other
Financial Institutions
Financial instruments and services
made available for farmers
Access to digital technologies to
achieve financial inclusion
3
Telecommunication
Services Providers
Telcos powering agri fintech tools
Wider reach of agri fintech services and
easier integration of technology with
other infrastructures
Government funding is available but the technology has not yet materialized.
TECHNOLOGICAL
KPV-2 = Tech Infrastructure
SOCIAL/CULTURAL
KPV-8 = Funding

47. “
STAGE 10
Assessment and Implications of the Scenarios for
Strategic Planning
47

48. TITLE AND SCENARIOS
NASAN KA
NANG
KAILANGAN NA
KITA!!!
CHILL LANG
TAYO!!!
TAKE MY
MONEY!!!
48
CHILL LANG TAYO!!!
We are not sure if the people are ready to adapt to FinTech BUT agriculture contributes to the economy.
NASAN KA NANG KAILANGAN NA KITA!!!
People are ready to adapt, BUT the technology infrastructure is not yet ready for deployment
TAKE MY MONEY!!!
There is funding, BUT has not yet materialized into actual technology infrastructure.

49. CHILL LANG TAYO!!!
EMERGING CONSEQUENCES
◍ Farming for production over gains
◍ Little to no motivation in financial literacy
◍ Closed-minded in adapting agri fintech
because they lack knowledge in finance
49

50. CHILL LANG TAYO!!!
VULNERABILITIES REVEALED
◍ Quality of yield
◍ Risk of getting scammed
◍ Resorting to microlenders (5-6) with
onerous interest rates
◍ Being stuck to the routinary or traditional
agriculture methods
50

51. CHILL LANG TAYO!!!
STRATEGIES EMERGING
◍ Monitor effective implementation of Rice Competitiveness Enhancement
Fund (RCEF)
○ Strengthening global competitiveness and profitability of farmers
○ Building a food-secure Philippines
◍ Creation of educational campaigns on financial literacy, consumer rights
and cybersecurity
◍ Identify early adopters to try modern agricultural methods and agri fintech
○ Farmers having “seeing is believing” mentality (Theory of Innovation
Diffusion)
51

52. NASAN KA NANG KAILANGAN NA KITA!!!
EMERGING CONSEQUENCES
◍ Losing interest in fintech because of
lack of infrastructure
◍ Acceleration of tech infrastructure
projects with the support from
government and private sectors
52

53. NASAN KA NANG KAILANGAN NA KITA!!!
VULNERABILITIES REVEALED
◍ Fintech is totally dependent on tech
infrastructure
◍ Support from both government and
private sectors is essential to the
implementation of agri-fintech
53

54. NASAN KA NANG KAILANGAN NA KITA!!!
STRATEGIES EMERGING
◍ SWOT analysis of design, agri-fintech and infrastructure
◍ Strictly implement the approved budget for the
development/improvement of technology infrastructure
◍ More partnerships between government and private
institutions
◍ Create a collaborative research and innovation center that
includes government and private industries for the
contraction of agri fintech infrastructure information center
54

55. TAKE MY MONEY!!!
EMERGING CONSEQUENCES
◍ Unutilized funding which may not be
available for use in subsequent
implementation years
○ In government, funds are reallocated if not used
◍ Failure to maximize the potential of
emerging technologies
55

56. TAKE MY MONEY!!!
VULNERABILITIES REVEALED
◍ Available funding is not translated to
concrete plans/programs
◍ Limited telecommunications
infrastructures in remote areas
56

57. TAKE MY MONEY!!!
STRATEGIES EMERGING
◍ Partnerships with LGU
○ Capture and address the needs in agri sectors
especially the farming industry
◍ Joint effort between government and
telecommunication companies
○ Fully developed and accessible infrastructure
57

58. SUMMARY
Emerging Consequences Vulnerabilities Revealed Strategies Emerging
CHILL LANG TAYO!!!
● Farming production over
gains
● No motivation in
financial literacy
● Closed-minded in agri
fintech
● Quality of yield
● Getting scammed
● Resorting to
microlenders
● Stuck to traditional agri
methods
● Implementation of RCEF
● Creation of educational
campaigns
● Identify early adopters
NASAN KA NANG
KAILANGAN NA KITA!!!
● Losing interest in
fintech
● Acceleration of tech
infrastructure projs
● Fintech is dependent on
infra
● Support from
government and private
sectors
● SWOT of fintech and
infra
● Strict budget
implem/allocation
● Partnerships between
gov’t and private
sectors
● Agri fintech
infrastructure
information center
TAKE MY MONEY!!!
● Unutilized funding no
longer available
● Failure to maximize
potential of emerging
tech
● No concrete
plans/programs
● Limited infra in remote
areas
● Partnerships with LGU
● Joint effort between
government and telcos

60. 60