Many are dubbing 2016 the "Snapchat Election", not only because campaigns are using the social app to reach the coveted millennial demographic, but due to the ephemeral nature of today’s media environment where content is consumed in streams, feeds and snaps. Topics in this webinar include: How the use of different channels like Snapchat are being matched with specific campaign goals; How much US political campaigns will spend on digital advertising in the 2016 election cycle; Differences between approaches at the local level versus the national level; How voters research candidates and their attitudes toward political advertising

1. © 2016 eMarketer Inc.
Made possible by
US Election 2016: Spotlight on Digital
Advertising, Data and Targeting
Bryan Yeager
Senior Analyst
May 5, 2016

2. © 2016 eMarketer Inc.
Decision 2016:
The Snapchat Election?

3. © 2016 eMarketer Inc.
Digital’s Evolving Role in Recent US Elections
2000 2004 2008 2016?
Image Credit: Daniel Llamas Soto + Felisberto Piazza/Noun Project Source: Jim Rutenberg/NYTimes, April 2016
2012

4. © 2016 eMarketer Inc.
Snapchat Discover, Live Stories bring election
coverage to a young and connected audience

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Election coverage, Snapchat style
CNN Daily Mail Live Story
Source: Author’s Snapchat Account, April 2016

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Snapchat launches its own geotargeted political
show, ‘Good Luck America’
 Produced and narrated
by Peter Hamby, head
of news at Snapchat
 Former CNN political
reporter
 Timed with major
moments during race,
so not always available
Image Credits: Tech Insider, Snapchat

7. © 2016 eMarketer Inc.
Campaigns experiment with sponsored Snapchat
geofilters during key events
Image Credits: Mashable, Snapchat/WSJ, Kasich Campaign/Time.com

8. © 2016 eMarketer Inc.
The First Billion-Dollar
Digital Ad Election

9. © 2016 eMarketer Inc.
More than half of US political ad agency pros
anticipate ad budget increases for 2016 election
 Most expect
increases up to
20%
 One-third expect
budgets to stay
the same

10. © 2016 eMarketer Inc.
Digital’s share rising, but broadcast and cable TV
still dominate political ad spending
Broadcast TV
Cable TV
Digital
Other
2008
Broadcast TVCable TV
Digital
Other
2012
Broadcast TV
Cable TV
Digital
Other
2016 estimate
Source: Nomura Securities, April 2016

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Similar estimates from Borrell Associates point
to first billion-dollar digital election in 2016
 Borrell estimates
that around 6 in 10
digital ad dollars
will come from
national contests

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Digital’s
approximately
10% share of
political ad
spending lags
behind its share
of the broader ad
market, which
will reach 35.8%
in 2016

13. © 2016 eMarketer Inc.
But digital’s
use is
projected to
skyrocket over
the course of
the next few
election cycles

14. © 2016 eMarketer Inc.
Recent data suggests digital’s place in political
advertising might be higher than initially expected
30%
31%
10%
15%
20%
26%
41%
29%
Political
Nonpolitical
Budget Allocation: Nonpolitical vs. Political Advertising Spending
TV Print Digital/Mobile Other
Source: Advertiser Perceptions, Feb. 2016

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Political ad
pros say local
TV still garners
the greatest
return on
investment,
but social
media is
gaining ground

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Matching Channels, Tactics with
Voter Behaviors, Preferences

17. © 2016 eMarketer Inc.
TV remains a top election source for US voters
78% of US adults used TV to learn about the 2016
presidential election, with local TV news as a top
source. 65% used digital sources. (Pew Research Center, Jan. 2016)
59% of US internet users cited TV ads as the most
impactful type of political ad. Just 13% found digital
ads to be the most impactful. (Rubicon Project, Jan. 2016)
61% of registered voters in the US have seen
candidates’ ads on TV vs. 40% on digital. (IAB, Nov. 2015)

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TV news is a particularly effective political
platform, according to US internet users
 It may explain
one candidate’s
success at
dominating the
news cycle this
election season

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Generational gaps evident when it comes to
media sources voters use for political info
6%
6%
10%
14%
17%
32%
Social Media
Nat'l Newspapers
Online-only Sources
Local TV News
Cable News
National TV News
Most trusted source for political
campaign news
Source: Rubicon Project, Jan. 2016
35%
18%
12%
15%
19%
21%
5%
10%
25%
1%
5%
43%
Social media News
websites/apps
Cable TV news
Most helpful source for learning about the
2016 presidential election
18-29 30-49 50-64 65+
Source: Pew Research Center’s Journalism Project, Jan. 2016

20. © 2016 eMarketer Inc.
Social, video ads almost as effective as TV
among adult millennial internet users
38%
35%
30%
25%
18% 19%19%
9% 10%
TV ad Social media ad Online video ad
Political ad formats effective at influencing voting behavior
Millennials
Gen X
Baby Boomers
Source: Kelly Scott Madison/ORC International, Jan. 2016

21. © 2016 eMarketer Inc.
Millennials
have higher
interest in
political ads
compared to
older
generations

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Effectiveness of medium depends on the goal
Candidate Branding
1. TV (54%)
2. Digital/Mobile (21%)
3. Other (10%)
Changing Opinions
1. TV (45%)
2. Digital/Mobile (25%)
3. Other (10%)
Voter Mobilization
1. Digital/Mobile (26%)
2. TV (23%)
3. Phone Canvassing (20%)
Negative Attacks
1. TV (57%)
2. Digital/Mobile (15%)
3. Other (11%)
Source: Advertiser Perceptions, Feb. 2016

23. © 2016 eMarketer Inc.
Campaigns need to adapt as time spent with
media shifts toward digital, mobile channels
32.1%
2011
47.7%
2016
Source: eMarketer, Oct. 2015
26.0%
Nondigital
Digital
Mobile Nonvoice
Time Spent
with Media by
US Adults

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TV remains effective for reach, but key voter
constituencies are shifting to mobile
“TV ad budgets are not going away, and they’re
certainly a formidable way to reach a mass
audience. [But] if you look at some of the specific
demographic groups such as millennials and
Hispanics ... our data points suggest that those are
the largest consumers of media through
smartphones or connected media channels.”
—Jerry Hug, CEO, SITO Mobile

25. © 2016 eMarketer Inc.
As millennials
make up a
growing
proportion of
eligible voters,
expect the
political media
mix to more
closely match
their preferences

26. © 2016 eMarketer Inc.
The open web: a source for news and an on-ramp
for campaign donations
Image Credit: Nando Ramirez/Noun Project
National news sites like CNN.com (43%), online
news sites like Yahoo News (34%) and national
newspaper sites like WSJ.com (25%) were the top
types of websites used by US registered voters to
find candidate news and information.
Only 18% of registered voters visited a candidate’s
own website to get news and info.
49% of registered voters used a mobile device to
access news and info about candidates.
Source: IAB/Vision Critical, Nov. 2015

27. © 2016 eMarketer Inc.
Digital video: extending reach and meeting
TV-oriented goals across digital channels
Likely voters that have watched
political videos digitally
4 in 10
1 in 10
Source: Rubicon Project, Jan. 2016
59%Share of US likely voters
ages 18 to 34 who use
digital video to learn about
political candidates and
issues.
Source: Google/Ipsos Connect, Jan. 2016Image Credit: Laurence Willmott/Noun Project

28. © 2016 eMarketer Inc.
Presidential campaigns have the largest share of
mobile video impressions
 Mobile video makes
up 25% of presidential
campaign ad
impressions
 Just 15% of ad
impressions for
congressional
campaigns, 4% for
local campaigns were
mobile video

29. © 2016 eMarketer Inc.
Tailoring messages to mobile video viewers
“Candidates that embrace mobile have a much
better chance of making a personal connection
with a voter. The reason you need a 30-second ad
on television when you’re running it during the
6pm news is because you don’t know who that
viewer is and what message is going to resonate
with them. On a mobile device, you can tailor a
10-second message based on one
specific issue that you know that voter cares
about.”
—Mike Balabanov, Advertising Account Director, AOL

30. © 2016 eMarketer Inc.
Is 2016 Really the
Snapchat Election?

31. © 2016 eMarketer Inc.
Social media claimed as preferred method for
political engagement, but actions lag behind
7%
14%
24%
25%
Phone Call
Direct Mail
Email
Social Media
Primary way US internet users prefer to
engage with political candidates
Source: Rubicon Project, Jan. 2016
33%
Likely voters that viewed a post or
video about a candidate shared
by a friend
14%
Likely voters that posted a post or
video themselves about a
candidate to social media

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Snapchat doesn’t have the biggest digital video
audience, but its demographics are coveted
16.6% of US internet
users are also
Snapchat users,
compared with 79.8%
that use YouTube and
63.9% that use
Facebook to watch
digital videos.
Source: Cowen and Company, March 2016
Close to two-thirds of
18- to 24-year-olds
are Snapchat users,
as are 31% of 25- to
34-year-olds. Just 8%
of those 35 and older
are using Snapchat.
Source: comScore Mobile Metrix, Dec. 2015

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Facebook led the
pack as a
platform for
learning about
the presidential
election at the
start of 2016,
while just 2% of
US adults used
Snapchat to do so

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But there is some evidence of success with
Snapchat political and election content
44%
of 13- to 24-year-old US Snapchat users
that viewed Live Stories and Discover
features did so on a daily basis
vs.
23%
of all US Snapchat users surveyed
3 in 10
US Snapchat users have
used the platform to get
news about the 2016
presidential election
Source: Variety Magazine/Defy Media, Feb. 2016

35. © 2016 eMarketer Inc.
But Snapchat’s CEO is hesitant to make such a
bold claim about his company’s election role
“It’s definitely not the Snapchat election. The thing
that excited us is we really saw an opportunity to not only
help politicians reach constituents, but really to help people
learn about politics in a way that goes beyond just
knowledge, like just reading about it or hearing from a
singular newscaster.”
—Evan Spiegel, CEO, Snapchat
Source: “The Late Show with Stephen Colbert,” Sept. 2015

36. © 2016 eMarketer Inc.
Political content tailored for digital natives
GIFs as visual sound bites Native content on BuzzFeed

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The earned media advantage of Donald Trump
Paid Earned
Bush $82M $214M
Sanders $28M $321M
Clinton $28M $746M
Trump $10M $1.9B
Source: NYTimes/mediaQuant/SMG Delta, Feb. 2016
Presidential ad spending as of February 2016

38. © 2016 eMarketer Inc.
Twitter provides a megaphone directly to an
engaged audience (and media)
$139.8M in earned
media on Twitter,
April 2015-March 2016
Source: mediaQuant/TheStreet, April 2016
$2,700 in paid
Twitter ads,
Jan. 2016-Feb. 2016
Source: FEC/TheStreet, April 2016
$83,000 in paid
Facebook ads,
Jan. 2016-Feb. 2016
Source: FEC/TheStreet, April 2016
7.9M
Twitter followers, up 3M
in the past 6 months

39. © 2016 eMarketer Inc.
Facebook, Google to be the big beneficiaries of
election-related digital ad spending
Most essential media brands for
placing digital/mobile political ads:
1. Facebook
2. Google Display Ads
3. Google Search
4. CBS
5. ABC
Source: Advertiser Perceptions, Feb. 2016

40. © 2016 eMarketer Inc.
Data will play an increasingly important role as
campaigns try to persuade undecided voters
“Data gets political agencies really excited because
when you look at the electorate, 40% are going to
vote one way, 40% will vote the other way and it’s
the 20% in the middle that’s
persuadable. Data targeting has become the
holy grail for political advertisers because they are
able to find voters that they know are going to be
persuadable based on different characteristics.”
—Mike Balabanov, Advertising Account Director, AOL

41. © 2016 eMarketer Inc.
Facebook’s rich targeting capabilities are a boon
to political advertisers
 Campaigns can target
by age, gender,
Congressional district
and interests
 Upload email lists
from website and
mobile app efforts,
match likely voters
and target them with
Facebook ads

42. © 2016 eMarketer Inc.
Shift from primaries to general election will
reset digital approach
“What we’ve seen in the primary—and it’s not a
surprise—is that get-out-the-vote efforts are sort of
preaching to the choir and hoping they stand up.
That’s really the name of the game right now, and
it will be until we have a better sense of who the
top two candidates are going to be. At that point, I
imagine the approach resets itself and it’s a
dash to sway the people in the middle.”
—Bryan Melmed, Vice President of Insights Services,
Exponential

43. © 2016 eMarketer Inc.
Could an unprecedented election cycle affect
digital spending among presidential candidates?
$624
$894
2016
2008
Total Spending by Presidential
Campaigns Through March 31
(millions, adjusted for inflation)
Source: Federal Election Commission/Campaign Finance Institute/Huffington Post, April 2016
 Super PACs pick up slack
from main campaigns on
ad spending (GOP Super
PACs have spent more
than candidates thus far)
 Major GOP donors sitting
on the sidelines
 Does Trump’s earned
media windfall continue if
he is the nominee?

44. © 2016 eMarketer Inc.
Key takeaways
 Several pundits have dubbed 2016 the Snapchat Election.
Though Snapchat will play a role, Facebook and Google will
be the big beneficiaries of campaigns’ digital spending.
 Digital’s share of election ad spending is projected to
exceed $1 billion, but TV remains the top choice among
political campaigns to achieve a variety of goals.
 With the real-time nature of Twitter, a 24/7 TV news cycle
and big personalities as catalysts, earned media is playing
an outsized role in the 2016 presidential race.
 Other factors like Super PACs alter the spending picture.

46. First Party Data: email database
Third Party Data: national voter files
Hyperlocal targeting: conventions,
boroughs, devices
Omnichannel targeting: your audience
on every channel, every device

48. $-
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IP targeting to voter database
*Retargeting & voter file model
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Bryan Yeager
US Election 2016: Spotlight on
Digital Advertising, Data and
Targeting
 US Ad Spending: eMarketer's Estimates for 2016
 US Digital Users: The eMarketer Forecast for 2016
 Need-to-Know Trends in US Digital Advertising: From Strategy
to Budgeting to Mobile, Programmatic, Ad Blocking,
Measurement and More
 Television Update, Q1 2016: In Advance of the Upfronts, Four
Changes on the Horizon