SlideShare ist ein Scribd-Unternehmen logo
1 von 6
Downloaden Sie, um offline zu lesen
Data for the Classroom from
     Ed Dolan’s Econ Blog
http://dolanecon.blogspot.com/

 US GDP Shrinks in Q4.
    How to Interpret
    the Bad News?
            Posted Jan 30, 2012




    Terms of Use: These slides are made available under Creative Commons License Attribution—
       Share Alike 3.0 . You are free to use these slides as a resource for your economics classes
    together with whatever textbook you are using. If you like the slides, you may also want to take a
                 look at my textbook, Introduction to Economics, from BVT Publishers.
Q4 GDP Shows Unexpected Decrease




 The advance estimate of US real
  GDP growth for Q4 2012 decreasing
  at a 0.1 percent annual rate
 The advance estimate is subject to
  later revisions averaging plus or
  minus 1.3 percentage points
 If confirmed, the quarterly decrease
  would be the first since 2009




           Posted Jan. 30, 2013 on Ed Dolan’s Econ Blog http://dolanecon.blogspot.com
Expansion Interrupted

 According to standard business cycle
  terminology, the recession phase of the
  business cycle is the downward
  movement of GDP from its previous peak
 The recovery phase is the upward
  movement from the trough (low point) of
  the recession and continues until GDP
  again reaches its previous peak.
 Once GDP moves above its previous
  peak, the expansion phase begins.
 Q4 2012 GDP dropped slightly from Q3
  but at this point it seems more likely this is
  an interruption of the expansion than the
  start of a new recession

            Posted Jan. 30, 2013 on Ed Dolan’s Econ Blog http://dolanecon.blogspot.com
Sources of the Q4 Decrease in GDP

                                                          Table shows the contribution
 Consumption contributed a strong 1.52                   of each sector to the -0.1%
  percentage points to Q3 growth                          total GDP change in Q4 2012
 Investment contributed -0.08 percentage
  points. Fixed investment was strong but
  more than offset by falling nonfarm
  inventories
 Exports contributed -0.81 percentage
  points. If confirmed, this will be the first
  decrease in exports since Q1 2009.
 The government sector also made a
  negative contribution to growth; details on
  the next side                                            Note: Imports are recorded in the national
                                                           accounts with a negative sign, so the positive
                                                           0.11 percent shown here represents a
                                                           decrease in imports

          Posted Jan. 30, 2013 on Ed Dolan’s Econ Blog http://dolanecon.blogspot.com
Shrinking Government


 The government contribution to
  GDP growth has been negative
  throughout most of the recovery
 In earlier quarters, state and local
  governments shrank most rapidly
 Recently, state and local
  government has stabilized, but
  federal spending has begun to
  decrease
 The sharp increase in Q3 2012 and
  subsequent decrease in Q4 are
  largely due to unusual movements
  in federal defense spending


           Posted Jan. 30, 2013 on Ed Dolan’s Econ Blog http://dolanecon.blogspot.com
Shrinking Government


 The government contribution to
  GDP growth has been negative
  throughout most of the recovery
 In earlier quarters, state and local
  governments shrank most rapidly
 Recently, state and local
  government has stabilized, but
  federal spending has begun to
  decrease
 The sharp increase in Q3 2012 and
  subsequent decrease in Q4 are
  largely due to unusual movements
  in federal defense spending


           Posted Jan. 30, 2013 on Ed Dolan’s Econ Blog http://dolanecon.blogspot.com

Weitere ähnliche Inhalte

Was ist angesagt?

What is the Nairu and Why Does It Matter?
What is the Nairu and Why Does It Matter?What is the Nairu and Why Does It Matter?
What is the Nairu and Why Does It Matter?Ed Dolan
 
Why Fear Deflation? A Tutorial
Why Fear Deflation? A TutorialWhy Fear Deflation? A Tutorial
Why Fear Deflation? A TutorialEd Dolan
 
Fiscal deficit & inflation gaurav tripathi jamia millia islamia, new delhi
Fiscal deficit & inflation gaurav tripathi jamia millia islamia, new delhiFiscal deficit & inflation gaurav tripathi jamia millia islamia, new delhi
Fiscal deficit & inflation gaurav tripathi jamia millia islamia, new delhiJamia Millia Islamia, delhi
 
US Recovery Shows New Signs of Strength
US Recovery Shows New Signs of Strength US Recovery Shows New Signs of Strength
US Recovery Shows New Signs of Strength Ed Dolan
 
Causes and Impacts of Inflation
Causes and Impacts of InflationCauses and Impacts of Inflation
Causes and Impacts of InflationHugo OGrady
 
The Great Deflation of 2015
The Great Deflation of 2015 The Great Deflation of 2015
The Great Deflation of 2015 QNB Group
 
US CPI Inflation Remains Near Zero as Sequester Looms
US CPI Inflation Remains Near Zero as Sequester LoomsUS CPI Inflation Remains Near Zero as Sequester Looms
US CPI Inflation Remains Near Zero as Sequester LoomsEd Dolan
 
US CPI Falls Sharply in November
US CPI Falls Sharply in NovemberUS CPI Falls Sharply in November
US CPI Falls Sharply in NovemberEd Dolan
 
Inflation Watch: February 17, 2011
Inflation Watch: February 17, 2011Inflation Watch: February 17, 2011
Inflation Watch: February 17, 2011NAR Research
 
Intro to Macroeconomic Objectives
Intro to Macroeconomic ObjectivesIntro to Macroeconomic Objectives
Intro to Macroeconomic ObjectivesHugo OGrady
 
US GDP Growth Revised Downward on Falling Exports
US GDP Growth Revised Downward on Falling ExportsUS GDP Growth Revised Downward on Falling Exports
US GDP Growth Revised Downward on Falling ExportsEd Dolan
 
U.S. Inflation Indicators Come in Below Target as the Global Economy Begins t...
U.S. Inflation Indicators Come in Below Target as the Global Economy Begins t...U.S. Inflation Indicators Come in Below Target as the Global Economy Begins t...
U.S. Inflation Indicators Come in Below Target as the Global Economy Begins t...Ed Dolan
 
Portuguese news_the press
Portuguese news_the pressPortuguese news_the press
Portuguese news_the pressflorbelaribeiro
 
Inflation Watch: December 2011
Inflation Watch: December 2011Inflation Watch: December 2011
Inflation Watch: December 2011REALTORS
 
Inflation - How it's measured
Inflation - How it's measuredInflation - How it's measured
Inflation - How it's measuredHugo OGrady
 
Causes of Economic Growth
Causes of Economic GrowthCauses of Economic Growth
Causes of Economic GrowthHugo OGrady
 
Is the World Economy Heading for the Great Deflation?
Is the World Economy Heading for the Great Deflation? Is the World Economy Heading for the Great Deflation?
Is the World Economy Heading for the Great Deflation? QNB Group
 
Relationship between Inflation & Stock Market...
Relationship between Inflation & Stock Market...Relationship between Inflation & Stock Market...
Relationship between Inflation & Stock Market...Samyak Jain
 

Was ist angesagt? (20)

What is the Nairu and Why Does It Matter?
What is the Nairu and Why Does It Matter?What is the Nairu and Why Does It Matter?
What is the Nairu and Why Does It Matter?
 
Why Fear Deflation? A Tutorial
Why Fear Deflation? A TutorialWhy Fear Deflation? A Tutorial
Why Fear Deflation? A Tutorial
 
Fiscal deficit & inflation gaurav tripathi jamia millia islamia, new delhi
Fiscal deficit & inflation gaurav tripathi jamia millia islamia, new delhiFiscal deficit & inflation gaurav tripathi jamia millia islamia, new delhi
Fiscal deficit & inflation gaurav tripathi jamia millia islamia, new delhi
 
US Recovery Shows New Signs of Strength
US Recovery Shows New Signs of Strength US Recovery Shows New Signs of Strength
US Recovery Shows New Signs of Strength
 
Econ
EconEcon
Econ
 
Causes and Impacts of Inflation
Causes and Impacts of InflationCauses and Impacts of Inflation
Causes and Impacts of Inflation
 
The Great Deflation of 2015
The Great Deflation of 2015 The Great Deflation of 2015
The Great Deflation of 2015
 
US CPI Inflation Remains Near Zero as Sequester Looms
US CPI Inflation Remains Near Zero as Sequester LoomsUS CPI Inflation Remains Near Zero as Sequester Looms
US CPI Inflation Remains Near Zero as Sequester Looms
 
US CPI Falls Sharply in November
US CPI Falls Sharply in NovemberUS CPI Falls Sharply in November
US CPI Falls Sharply in November
 
Inflation Watch: February 17, 2011
Inflation Watch: February 17, 2011Inflation Watch: February 17, 2011
Inflation Watch: February 17, 2011
 
Intro to Macroeconomic Objectives
Intro to Macroeconomic ObjectivesIntro to Macroeconomic Objectives
Intro to Macroeconomic Objectives
 
US GDP Growth Revised Downward on Falling Exports
US GDP Growth Revised Downward on Falling ExportsUS GDP Growth Revised Downward on Falling Exports
US GDP Growth Revised Downward on Falling Exports
 
U.S. Inflation Indicators Come in Below Target as the Global Economy Begins t...
U.S. Inflation Indicators Come in Below Target as the Global Economy Begins t...U.S. Inflation Indicators Come in Below Target as the Global Economy Begins t...
U.S. Inflation Indicators Come in Below Target as the Global Economy Begins t...
 
Portuguese news_the press
Portuguese news_the pressPortuguese news_the press
Portuguese news_the press
 
Inflation Watch: December 2011
Inflation Watch: December 2011Inflation Watch: December 2011
Inflation Watch: December 2011
 
Inflation - How it's measured
Inflation - How it's measuredInflation - How it's measured
Inflation - How it's measured
 
Causes of Economic Growth
Causes of Economic GrowthCauses of Economic Growth
Causes of Economic Growth
 
Is the World Economy Heading for the Great Deflation?
Is the World Economy Heading for the Great Deflation? Is the World Economy Heading for the Great Deflation?
Is the World Economy Heading for the Great Deflation?
 
Relationship between Inflation & Stock Market...
Relationship between Inflation & Stock Market...Relationship between Inflation & Stock Market...
Relationship between Inflation & Stock Market...
 
Inflation plain
Inflation plainInflation plain
Inflation plain
 

Ähnlich wie US GDP Falls in Q4. How to Interpret the Bad News?

The greek budget crisis some comparisons with the us
The greek budget crisis some comparisons with the usThe greek budget crisis some comparisons with the us
The greek budget crisis some comparisons with the usEd Dolan
 
Nevada's Economy - August 2012
Nevada's Economy - August 2012Nevada's Economy - August 2012
Nevada's Economy - August 2012Katie Madanat
 
How Chronic Budget Optimism Helped Dig The Hole We Are In
How Chronic Budget Optimism Helped Dig The Hole We Are InHow Chronic Budget Optimism Helped Dig The Hole We Are In
How Chronic Budget Optimism Helped Dig The Hole We Are InEd Dolan
 
Long-term Unemployment Falls as Job Market Ends 2012 on Quiet Note
Long-term Unemployment Falls as Job Market Ends 2012 on Quiet NoteLong-term Unemployment Falls as Job Market Ends 2012 on Quiet Note
Long-term Unemployment Falls as Job Market Ends 2012 on Quiet NoteEd Dolan
 
Gasoline Pushes US Inflation Higher in August
Gasoline Pushes US Inflation Higher in AugustGasoline Pushes US Inflation Higher in August
Gasoline Pushes US Inflation Higher in AugustEd Dolan
 
Deficit financing- Comparison among India, USA, China, Brazil & Italy with re...
Deficit financing- Comparison among India, USA, China, Brazil & Italy with re...Deficit financing- Comparison among India, USA, China, Brazil & Italy with re...
Deficit financing- Comparison among India, USA, China, Brazil & Italy with re...Jothin Jeevan
 
US Inflation Data: CPI Revisions Cut Volatility, January Inflation Up a Bit
US Inflation Data: CPI Revisions Cut Volatility, January Inflation Up a BitUS Inflation Data: CPI Revisions Cut Volatility, January Inflation Up a Bit
US Inflation Data: CPI Revisions Cut Volatility, January Inflation Up a BitEd Dolan
 
Tutorial: Is the Government Debt Out of Control?
Tutorial: Is the Government Debt Out of Control?Tutorial: Is the Government Debt Out of Control?
Tutorial: Is the Government Debt Out of Control?Ed Dolan
 
US CPI Data: Core Inflation Trend Flat, Headline CPI Falls in March
US CPI Data: Core Inflation Trend Flat, Headline CPI Falls in MarchUS CPI Data: Core Inflation Trend Flat, Headline CPI Falls in March
US CPI Data: Core Inflation Trend Flat, Headline CPI Falls in MarchEd Dolan
 
Indonesian Economic Review and Outlook No 1/Year I/December 2012
Indonesian Economic Review and Outlook No 1/Year I/December 2012Indonesian Economic Review and Outlook No 1/Year I/December 2012
Indonesian Economic Review and Outlook No 1/Year I/December 2012Rosa Kristiadi
 
US Employment Data: Strong Jobs Report Leads Off the Election Season
US Employment Data: Strong Jobs Report Leads Off the Election SeasonUS Employment Data: Strong Jobs Report Leads Off the Election Season
US Employment Data: Strong Jobs Report Leads Off the Election SeasonEd Dolan
 
US Data Show Inflation, Already Low, Slowed Further in July
US Data Show Inflation, Already Low, Slowed Further in JulyUS Data Show Inflation, Already Low, Slowed Further in July
US Data Show Inflation, Already Low, Slowed Further in JulyEd Dolan
 

Ähnlich wie US GDP Falls in Q4. How to Interpret the Bad News? (13)

The greek budget crisis some comparisons with the us
The greek budget crisis some comparisons with the usThe greek budget crisis some comparisons with the us
The greek budget crisis some comparisons with the us
 
Nevada's Economy - August 2012
Nevada's Economy - August 2012Nevada's Economy - August 2012
Nevada's Economy - August 2012
 
How Chronic Budget Optimism Helped Dig The Hole We Are In
How Chronic Budget Optimism Helped Dig The Hole We Are InHow Chronic Budget Optimism Helped Dig The Hole We Are In
How Chronic Budget Optimism Helped Dig The Hole We Are In
 
Long-term Unemployment Falls as Job Market Ends 2012 on Quiet Note
Long-term Unemployment Falls as Job Market Ends 2012 on Quiet NoteLong-term Unemployment Falls as Job Market Ends 2012 on Quiet Note
Long-term Unemployment Falls as Job Market Ends 2012 on Quiet Note
 
Gasoline Pushes US Inflation Higher in August
Gasoline Pushes US Inflation Higher in AugustGasoline Pushes US Inflation Higher in August
Gasoline Pushes US Inflation Higher in August
 
Deficit financing- Comparison among India, USA, China, Brazil & Italy with re...
Deficit financing- Comparison among India, USA, China, Brazil & Italy with re...Deficit financing- Comparison among India, USA, China, Brazil & Italy with re...
Deficit financing- Comparison among India, USA, China, Brazil & Italy with re...
 
US Inflation Data: CPI Revisions Cut Volatility, January Inflation Up a Bit
US Inflation Data: CPI Revisions Cut Volatility, January Inflation Up a BitUS Inflation Data: CPI Revisions Cut Volatility, January Inflation Up a Bit
US Inflation Data: CPI Revisions Cut Volatility, January Inflation Up a Bit
 
Tutorial: Is the Government Debt Out of Control?
Tutorial: Is the Government Debt Out of Control?Tutorial: Is the Government Debt Out of Control?
Tutorial: Is the Government Debt Out of Control?
 
US CPI Data: Core Inflation Trend Flat, Headline CPI Falls in March
US CPI Data: Core Inflation Trend Flat, Headline CPI Falls in MarchUS CPI Data: Core Inflation Trend Flat, Headline CPI Falls in March
US CPI Data: Core Inflation Trend Flat, Headline CPI Falls in March
 
Indonesian Economic Review and Outlook No 1/Year I/December 2012
Indonesian Economic Review and Outlook No 1/Year I/December 2012Indonesian Economic Review and Outlook No 1/Year I/December 2012
Indonesian Economic Review and Outlook No 1/Year I/December 2012
 
March 2013 World Economic Situation and Prospects
March 2013 World Economic Situation and ProspectsMarch 2013 World Economic Situation and Prospects
March 2013 World Economic Situation and Prospects
 
US Employment Data: Strong Jobs Report Leads Off the Election Season
US Employment Data: Strong Jobs Report Leads Off the Election SeasonUS Employment Data: Strong Jobs Report Leads Off the Election Season
US Employment Data: Strong Jobs Report Leads Off the Election Season
 
US Data Show Inflation, Already Low, Slowed Further in July
US Data Show Inflation, Already Low, Slowed Further in JulyUS Data Show Inflation, Already Low, Slowed Further in July
US Data Show Inflation, Already Low, Slowed Further in July
 

Mehr von Ed Dolan

Is the Federal Budget Out of Control? A Tutorial on Debt Dynamics
Is the Federal Budget Out of Control? A Tutorial on Debt DynamicsIs the Federal Budget Out of Control? A Tutorial on Debt Dynamics
Is the Federal Budget Out of Control? A Tutorial on Debt DynamicsEd Dolan
 
Bring back Reupload!
Bring back Reupload!Bring back Reupload!
Bring back Reupload!Ed Dolan
 
The Economics of a Soda Tax
The Economics of a Soda TaxThe Economics of a Soda Tax
The Economics of a Soda TaxEd Dolan
 
Why Should America Be More Like Europe?
Why Should America Be More Like Europe?Why Should America Be More Like Europe?
Why Should America Be More Like Europe?Ed Dolan
 
How Liberals and Conservatives Can Talk About Climate change
How Liberals and Conservatives Can Talk About Climate changeHow Liberals and Conservatives Can Talk About Climate change
How Liberals and Conservatives Can Talk About Climate changeEd Dolan
 
China's Crumbling Rare Earth Monopoly
China's Crumbling Rare Earth MonopolyChina's Crumbling Rare Earth Monopoly
China's Crumbling Rare Earth MonopolyEd Dolan
 
Consumer and Producer Surplus: A Tutorial
Consumer and Producer Surplus: A TutorialConsumer and Producer Surplus: A Tutorial
Consumer and Producer Surplus: A TutorialEd Dolan
 
Real and Nominal Exchange Rates: A Tutorial
Real and Nominal Exchange Rates: A TutorialReal and Nominal Exchange Rates: A Tutorial
Real and Nominal Exchange Rates: A TutorialEd Dolan
 
US GDP Grows at 5 Percent in Q3 2014, Best of Recovery
US GDP Grows at 5 Percent in Q3 2014, Best of RecoveryUS GDP Grows at 5 Percent in Q3 2014, Best of Recovery
US GDP Grows at 5 Percent in Q3 2014, Best of RecoveryEd Dolan
 
The Economics of a Price-Smoothing Oil Tax
The Economics of a Price-Smoothing Oil TaxThe Economics of a Price-Smoothing Oil Tax
The Economics of a Price-Smoothing Oil TaxEd Dolan
 
Quantitative Easing and the Fed 2008-2014: A Tutorial
Quantitative Easing and the Fed 2008-2014: A TutorialQuantitative Easing and the Fed 2008-2014: A Tutorial
Quantitative Easing and the Fed 2008-2014: A TutorialEd Dolan
 
As Exports Soar, US Economy Closes in on Fed's Targets
As Exports Soar, US Economy Closes in on Fed's TargetsAs Exports Soar, US Economy Closes in on Fed's Targets
As Exports Soar, US Economy Closes in on Fed's TargetsEd Dolan
 
Do Banks Take Excessive Risks?
Do Banks Take Excessive Risks?Do Banks Take Excessive Risks?
Do Banks Take Excessive Risks?Ed Dolan
 
US Adds 204,000 Jobs in October Despite Shutdown
US Adds 204,000 Jobs in October Despite ShutdownUS Adds 204,000 Jobs in October Despite Shutdown
US Adds 204,000 Jobs in October Despite ShutdownEd Dolan
 
US Economy Adds 195,000 Payroll Jobs in June
US Economy Adds 195,000 Payroll Jobs in JuneUS Economy Adds 195,000 Payroll Jobs in June
US Economy Adds 195,000 Payroll Jobs in JuneEd Dolan
 
Breakup of the Ruble Area: Lessons for the Euro
Breakup of the Ruble Area: Lessons for the EuroBreakup of the Ruble Area: Lessons for the Euro
Breakup of the Ruble Area: Lessons for the EuroEd Dolan
 
US Labor Market Shows Moderate Gains in May
US Labor Market Shows Moderate Gains in MayUS Labor Market Shows Moderate Gains in May
US Labor Market Shows Moderate Gains in MayEd Dolan
 
US Unemployment Rate falls to 7.5 percent in April; Job Gains Revised Up
US Unemployment Rate falls to 7.5 percent in April; Job Gains Revised UpUS Unemployment Rate falls to 7.5 percent in April; Job Gains Revised Up
US Unemployment Rate falls to 7.5 percent in April; Job Gains Revised UpEd Dolan
 
Why Hasn't the US become another Greece?
Why Hasn't the US become another Greece?Why Hasn't the US become another Greece?
Why Hasn't the US become another Greece?Ed Dolan
 
Tutorial on Bank Failures and Bank Rescues
Tutorial on Bank Failures and Bank RescuesTutorial on Bank Failures and Bank Rescues
Tutorial on Bank Failures and Bank RescuesEd Dolan
 

Mehr von Ed Dolan (20)

Is the Federal Budget Out of Control? A Tutorial on Debt Dynamics
Is the Federal Budget Out of Control? A Tutorial on Debt DynamicsIs the Federal Budget Out of Control? A Tutorial on Debt Dynamics
Is the Federal Budget Out of Control? A Tutorial on Debt Dynamics
 
Bring back Reupload!
Bring back Reupload!Bring back Reupload!
Bring back Reupload!
 
The Economics of a Soda Tax
The Economics of a Soda TaxThe Economics of a Soda Tax
The Economics of a Soda Tax
 
Why Should America Be More Like Europe?
Why Should America Be More Like Europe?Why Should America Be More Like Europe?
Why Should America Be More Like Europe?
 
How Liberals and Conservatives Can Talk About Climate change
How Liberals and Conservatives Can Talk About Climate changeHow Liberals and Conservatives Can Talk About Climate change
How Liberals and Conservatives Can Talk About Climate change
 
China's Crumbling Rare Earth Monopoly
China's Crumbling Rare Earth MonopolyChina's Crumbling Rare Earth Monopoly
China's Crumbling Rare Earth Monopoly
 
Consumer and Producer Surplus: A Tutorial
Consumer and Producer Surplus: A TutorialConsumer and Producer Surplus: A Tutorial
Consumer and Producer Surplus: A Tutorial
 
Real and Nominal Exchange Rates: A Tutorial
Real and Nominal Exchange Rates: A TutorialReal and Nominal Exchange Rates: A Tutorial
Real and Nominal Exchange Rates: A Tutorial
 
US GDP Grows at 5 Percent in Q3 2014, Best of Recovery
US GDP Grows at 5 Percent in Q3 2014, Best of RecoveryUS GDP Grows at 5 Percent in Q3 2014, Best of Recovery
US GDP Grows at 5 Percent in Q3 2014, Best of Recovery
 
The Economics of a Price-Smoothing Oil Tax
The Economics of a Price-Smoothing Oil TaxThe Economics of a Price-Smoothing Oil Tax
The Economics of a Price-Smoothing Oil Tax
 
Quantitative Easing and the Fed 2008-2014: A Tutorial
Quantitative Easing and the Fed 2008-2014: A TutorialQuantitative Easing and the Fed 2008-2014: A Tutorial
Quantitative Easing and the Fed 2008-2014: A Tutorial
 
As Exports Soar, US Economy Closes in on Fed's Targets
As Exports Soar, US Economy Closes in on Fed's TargetsAs Exports Soar, US Economy Closes in on Fed's Targets
As Exports Soar, US Economy Closes in on Fed's Targets
 
Do Banks Take Excessive Risks?
Do Banks Take Excessive Risks?Do Banks Take Excessive Risks?
Do Banks Take Excessive Risks?
 
US Adds 204,000 Jobs in October Despite Shutdown
US Adds 204,000 Jobs in October Despite ShutdownUS Adds 204,000 Jobs in October Despite Shutdown
US Adds 204,000 Jobs in October Despite Shutdown
 
US Economy Adds 195,000 Payroll Jobs in June
US Economy Adds 195,000 Payroll Jobs in JuneUS Economy Adds 195,000 Payroll Jobs in June
US Economy Adds 195,000 Payroll Jobs in June
 
Breakup of the Ruble Area: Lessons for the Euro
Breakup of the Ruble Area: Lessons for the EuroBreakup of the Ruble Area: Lessons for the Euro
Breakup of the Ruble Area: Lessons for the Euro
 
US Labor Market Shows Moderate Gains in May
US Labor Market Shows Moderate Gains in MayUS Labor Market Shows Moderate Gains in May
US Labor Market Shows Moderate Gains in May
 
US Unemployment Rate falls to 7.5 percent in April; Job Gains Revised Up
US Unemployment Rate falls to 7.5 percent in April; Job Gains Revised UpUS Unemployment Rate falls to 7.5 percent in April; Job Gains Revised Up
US Unemployment Rate falls to 7.5 percent in April; Job Gains Revised Up
 
Why Hasn't the US become another Greece?
Why Hasn't the US become another Greece?Why Hasn't the US become another Greece?
Why Hasn't the US become another Greece?
 
Tutorial on Bank Failures and Bank Rescues
Tutorial on Bank Failures and Bank RescuesTutorial on Bank Failures and Bank Rescues
Tutorial on Bank Failures and Bank Rescues
 

Kürzlich hochgeladen

Chicago Medical Malpractice Lawyer Chicago Medical Malpractice Lawyer.pdf
Chicago Medical Malpractice Lawyer Chicago Medical Malpractice Lawyer.pdfChicago Medical Malpractice Lawyer Chicago Medical Malpractice Lawyer.pdf
Chicago Medical Malpractice Lawyer Chicago Medical Malpractice Lawyer.pdfSourav Sikder
 
Michael Vidyakin: Introduction to PMO (UA)
Michael Vidyakin: Introduction to PMO (UA)Michael Vidyakin: Introduction to PMO (UA)
Michael Vidyakin: Introduction to PMO (UA)Lviv Startup Club
 
7movierulz.uk
7movierulz.uk7movierulz.uk
7movierulz.ukaroemirsr
 
Ethical stalking by Mark Williams. UpliftLive 2024
Ethical stalking by Mark Williams. UpliftLive 2024Ethical stalking by Mark Williams. UpliftLive 2024
Ethical stalking by Mark Williams. UpliftLive 2024Winbusinessin
 
Slicing Work on Business Agility Meetup Berlin
Slicing Work on Business Agility Meetup BerlinSlicing Work on Business Agility Meetup Berlin
Slicing Work on Business Agility Meetup BerlinAnton Skornyakov
 
NASA CoCEI Scaling Strategy - November 2023
NASA CoCEI Scaling Strategy - November 2023NASA CoCEI Scaling Strategy - November 2023
NASA CoCEI Scaling Strategy - November 2023Steve Rader
 
Team B Mind Map for Organizational Chg..
Team B Mind Map for Organizational Chg..Team B Mind Map for Organizational Chg..
Team B Mind Map for Organizational Chg..dlewis191
 
Q2 2024 APCO Geopolitical Radar - The Global Operating Environment for Business
Q2 2024 APCO Geopolitical Radar - The Global Operating Environment for BusinessQ2 2024 APCO Geopolitical Radar - The Global Operating Environment for Business
Q2 2024 APCO Geopolitical Radar - The Global Operating Environment for BusinessAPCO
 
Introduction to The overview of GAAP LO 1-5.pptx
Introduction to The overview of GAAP LO 1-5.pptxIntroduction to The overview of GAAP LO 1-5.pptx
Introduction to The overview of GAAP LO 1-5.pptxJemalSeid25
 
BCE24 | Virtual Brand Ambassadors: Making Brands Personal - John Meulemans
BCE24 | Virtual Brand Ambassadors: Making Brands Personal - John MeulemansBCE24 | Virtual Brand Ambassadors: Making Brands Personal - John Meulemans
BCE24 | Virtual Brand Ambassadors: Making Brands Personal - John MeulemansBBPMedia1
 
Harvard Business Review.pptx | Navigating Labor Unrest (March-April 2024)
Harvard Business Review.pptx | Navigating Labor Unrest (March-April 2024)Harvard Business Review.pptx | Navigating Labor Unrest (March-April 2024)
Harvard Business Review.pptx | Navigating Labor Unrest (March-April 2024)tazeenaila12
 
Project Brief & Information Architecture Report
Project Brief & Information Architecture ReportProject Brief & Information Architecture Report
Project Brief & Information Architecture Reportamberjiles31
 
Mihir Menda - Member of Supervisory Board at RMZ
Mihir Menda - Member of Supervisory Board at RMZMihir Menda - Member of Supervisory Board at RMZ
Mihir Menda - Member of Supervisory Board at RMZKanakChauhan5
 
Upgrade Your Banking Experience with Advanced Core Banking Applications
Upgrade Your Banking Experience with Advanced Core Banking ApplicationsUpgrade Your Banking Experience with Advanced Core Banking Applications
Upgrade Your Banking Experience with Advanced Core Banking ApplicationsIntellect Design Arena Ltd
 
TalentView Webinar: Empowering the Modern Workforce_ Redefininig Success from...
TalentView Webinar: Empowering the Modern Workforce_ Redefininig Success from...TalentView Webinar: Empowering the Modern Workforce_ Redefininig Success from...
TalentView Webinar: Empowering the Modern Workforce_ Redefininig Success from...TalentView
 
NewBase 25 March 2024 Energy News issue - 1710 by Khaled Al Awadi_compress...
NewBase  25 March  2024  Energy News issue - 1710 by Khaled Al Awadi_compress...NewBase  25 March  2024  Energy News issue - 1710 by Khaled Al Awadi_compress...
NewBase 25 March 2024 Energy News issue - 1710 by Khaled Al Awadi_compress...Khaled Al Awadi
 
AMAZON SELLER VIRTUAL ASSISTANT PRODUCT RESEARCH .pdf
AMAZON SELLER VIRTUAL ASSISTANT PRODUCT RESEARCH .pdfAMAZON SELLER VIRTUAL ASSISTANT PRODUCT RESEARCH .pdf
AMAZON SELLER VIRTUAL ASSISTANT PRODUCT RESEARCH .pdfJohnCarloValencia4
 
Lecture_6.pptx English speaking easyb to
Lecture_6.pptx English speaking easyb toLecture_6.pptx English speaking easyb to
Lecture_6.pptx English speaking easyb toumarfarooquejamali32
 
Fabric RFID Wristbands in Ireland for Events and Festivals
Fabric RFID Wristbands in Ireland for Events and FestivalsFabric RFID Wristbands in Ireland for Events and Festivals
Fabric RFID Wristbands in Ireland for Events and FestivalsWristbands Ireland
 

Kürzlich hochgeladen (20)

Chicago Medical Malpractice Lawyer Chicago Medical Malpractice Lawyer.pdf
Chicago Medical Malpractice Lawyer Chicago Medical Malpractice Lawyer.pdfChicago Medical Malpractice Lawyer Chicago Medical Malpractice Lawyer.pdf
Chicago Medical Malpractice Lawyer Chicago Medical Malpractice Lawyer.pdf
 
Michael Vidyakin: Introduction to PMO (UA)
Michael Vidyakin: Introduction to PMO (UA)Michael Vidyakin: Introduction to PMO (UA)
Michael Vidyakin: Introduction to PMO (UA)
 
7movierulz.uk
7movierulz.uk7movierulz.uk
7movierulz.uk
 
Ethical stalking by Mark Williams. UpliftLive 2024
Ethical stalking by Mark Williams. UpliftLive 2024Ethical stalking by Mark Williams. UpliftLive 2024
Ethical stalking by Mark Williams. UpliftLive 2024
 
Slicing Work on Business Agility Meetup Berlin
Slicing Work on Business Agility Meetup BerlinSlicing Work on Business Agility Meetup Berlin
Slicing Work on Business Agility Meetup Berlin
 
NASA CoCEI Scaling Strategy - November 2023
NASA CoCEI Scaling Strategy - November 2023NASA CoCEI Scaling Strategy - November 2023
NASA CoCEI Scaling Strategy - November 2023
 
Team B Mind Map for Organizational Chg..
Team B Mind Map for Organizational Chg..Team B Mind Map for Organizational Chg..
Team B Mind Map for Organizational Chg..
 
Q2 2024 APCO Geopolitical Radar - The Global Operating Environment for Business
Q2 2024 APCO Geopolitical Radar - The Global Operating Environment for BusinessQ2 2024 APCO Geopolitical Radar - The Global Operating Environment for Business
Q2 2024 APCO Geopolitical Radar - The Global Operating Environment for Business
 
Introduction to The overview of GAAP LO 1-5.pptx
Introduction to The overview of GAAP LO 1-5.pptxIntroduction to The overview of GAAP LO 1-5.pptx
Introduction to The overview of GAAP LO 1-5.pptx
 
BCE24 | Virtual Brand Ambassadors: Making Brands Personal - John Meulemans
BCE24 | Virtual Brand Ambassadors: Making Brands Personal - John MeulemansBCE24 | Virtual Brand Ambassadors: Making Brands Personal - John Meulemans
BCE24 | Virtual Brand Ambassadors: Making Brands Personal - John Meulemans
 
Harvard Business Review.pptx | Navigating Labor Unrest (March-April 2024)
Harvard Business Review.pptx | Navigating Labor Unrest (March-April 2024)Harvard Business Review.pptx | Navigating Labor Unrest (March-April 2024)
Harvard Business Review.pptx | Navigating Labor Unrest (March-April 2024)
 
Investment Opportunity for Thailand's Automotive & EV Industries
Investment Opportunity for Thailand's Automotive & EV IndustriesInvestment Opportunity for Thailand's Automotive & EV Industries
Investment Opportunity for Thailand's Automotive & EV Industries
 
Project Brief & Information Architecture Report
Project Brief & Information Architecture ReportProject Brief & Information Architecture Report
Project Brief & Information Architecture Report
 
Mihir Menda - Member of Supervisory Board at RMZ
Mihir Menda - Member of Supervisory Board at RMZMihir Menda - Member of Supervisory Board at RMZ
Mihir Menda - Member of Supervisory Board at RMZ
 
Upgrade Your Banking Experience with Advanced Core Banking Applications
Upgrade Your Banking Experience with Advanced Core Banking ApplicationsUpgrade Your Banking Experience with Advanced Core Banking Applications
Upgrade Your Banking Experience with Advanced Core Banking Applications
 
TalentView Webinar: Empowering the Modern Workforce_ Redefininig Success from...
TalentView Webinar: Empowering the Modern Workforce_ Redefininig Success from...TalentView Webinar: Empowering the Modern Workforce_ Redefininig Success from...
TalentView Webinar: Empowering the Modern Workforce_ Redefininig Success from...
 
NewBase 25 March 2024 Energy News issue - 1710 by Khaled Al Awadi_compress...
NewBase  25 March  2024  Energy News issue - 1710 by Khaled Al Awadi_compress...NewBase  25 March  2024  Energy News issue - 1710 by Khaled Al Awadi_compress...
NewBase 25 March 2024 Energy News issue - 1710 by Khaled Al Awadi_compress...
 
AMAZON SELLER VIRTUAL ASSISTANT PRODUCT RESEARCH .pdf
AMAZON SELLER VIRTUAL ASSISTANT PRODUCT RESEARCH .pdfAMAZON SELLER VIRTUAL ASSISTANT PRODUCT RESEARCH .pdf
AMAZON SELLER VIRTUAL ASSISTANT PRODUCT RESEARCH .pdf
 
Lecture_6.pptx English speaking easyb to
Lecture_6.pptx English speaking easyb toLecture_6.pptx English speaking easyb to
Lecture_6.pptx English speaking easyb to
 
Fabric RFID Wristbands in Ireland for Events and Festivals
Fabric RFID Wristbands in Ireland for Events and FestivalsFabric RFID Wristbands in Ireland for Events and Festivals
Fabric RFID Wristbands in Ireland for Events and Festivals
 

US GDP Falls in Q4. How to Interpret the Bad News?

  • 1. Data for the Classroom from Ed Dolan’s Econ Blog http://dolanecon.blogspot.com/ US GDP Shrinks in Q4. How to Interpret the Bad News? Posted Jan 30, 2012 Terms of Use: These slides are made available under Creative Commons License Attribution— Share Alike 3.0 . You are free to use these slides as a resource for your economics classes together with whatever textbook you are using. If you like the slides, you may also want to take a look at my textbook, Introduction to Economics, from BVT Publishers.
  • 2. Q4 GDP Shows Unexpected Decrease  The advance estimate of US real GDP growth for Q4 2012 decreasing at a 0.1 percent annual rate  The advance estimate is subject to later revisions averaging plus or minus 1.3 percentage points  If confirmed, the quarterly decrease would be the first since 2009 Posted Jan. 30, 2013 on Ed Dolan’s Econ Blog http://dolanecon.blogspot.com
  • 3. Expansion Interrupted  According to standard business cycle terminology, the recession phase of the business cycle is the downward movement of GDP from its previous peak  The recovery phase is the upward movement from the trough (low point) of the recession and continues until GDP again reaches its previous peak.  Once GDP moves above its previous peak, the expansion phase begins.  Q4 2012 GDP dropped slightly from Q3 but at this point it seems more likely this is an interruption of the expansion than the start of a new recession Posted Jan. 30, 2013 on Ed Dolan’s Econ Blog http://dolanecon.blogspot.com
  • 4. Sources of the Q4 Decrease in GDP Table shows the contribution  Consumption contributed a strong 1.52 of each sector to the -0.1% percentage points to Q3 growth total GDP change in Q4 2012  Investment contributed -0.08 percentage points. Fixed investment was strong but more than offset by falling nonfarm inventories  Exports contributed -0.81 percentage points. If confirmed, this will be the first decrease in exports since Q1 2009.  The government sector also made a negative contribution to growth; details on the next side Note: Imports are recorded in the national accounts with a negative sign, so the positive 0.11 percent shown here represents a decrease in imports Posted Jan. 30, 2013 on Ed Dolan’s Econ Blog http://dolanecon.blogspot.com
  • 5. Shrinking Government  The government contribution to GDP growth has been negative throughout most of the recovery  In earlier quarters, state and local governments shrank most rapidly  Recently, state and local government has stabilized, but federal spending has begun to decrease  The sharp increase in Q3 2012 and subsequent decrease in Q4 are largely due to unusual movements in federal defense spending Posted Jan. 30, 2013 on Ed Dolan’s Econ Blog http://dolanecon.blogspot.com
  • 6. Shrinking Government  The government contribution to GDP growth has been negative throughout most of the recovery  In earlier quarters, state and local governments shrank most rapidly  Recently, state and local government has stabilized, but federal spending has begun to decrease  The sharp increase in Q3 2012 and subsequent decrease in Q4 are largely due to unusual movements in federal defense spending Posted Jan. 30, 2013 on Ed Dolan’s Econ Blog http://dolanecon.blogspot.com