The document discusses Silicon Valley 2.0 and how technology has changed startup investing. It notes that less capital is now required to build products and reach customers online, allowing for more experimentation through "lots of little bets" like accelerators. This new model favors iterating quickly through customer feedback and metrics to identify the top startups worthy of follow-on funding. The document advocates investing in many early-stage companies and using data to double down on the most promising ones.
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Silicon Valley 2.0: Lots of Little Bets
1. Silicon Valley 2.0
Lots of Little Bets +
Beating the “Series A Crunch”
Dave McClure
http://500.co
(@DaveMcClure)
Echelon 2013
Singapore, June 2013
http://slideshare.net/dmc500hats
2. Dave McClure
Founding Partner & Chief Troublemaker, 500 Startups
00’s & 10’s:
• VC: Founders Fund, Facebook fbFund, 500 Startups
• Angel: Mashery, Mint.com, SlideShare, Twilio, WildFire, SendGrid
• Marketing: PayPal, Simply Hired, Mint.com, oDesk, O’Reilly
80’s & 90’s:
• Entrepreneur: Aslan Computing (acq’d by Servinet/Panurgy)
• Developer: Windows / SQL DB consultant (Intel, MSFT)
• Engineer: Johns Hopkins‘88, BS Eng / Applied Math
3. 500 Startups
Global Seed Fund & Startup Accelerator
• What is 500?
– ~$70M under management
– 25 people / 12 investing partners
– Locations: SV, NYC, MEX, BRZ, IND, CHN, SE asia
– 1000+ Founders / 200+ Mentors
• 500+ Portfolio Co’s / 30+ Countries
– Wildfire (acq GOOG, $350M)
– Twilio
– SendGrid
– TaskRabbit
– MakerBot
– Viki (SG)
– Flyer.IO (SG/SV)
– 9GAG (HK)
– PicCollage (TWN)
– Cubie (TWN)
– WooMoo (TWN)
– Payroll Hero (PI/Canada)
– TwitMusic (PI)
4. 500 Startups: Global Seed Fund
Over 100+ startups outside US, in 35+ countries
• Q4/12 added: Germany, Korea, Peru; + Russia, Turkey, Ghana in Q2/13
• Priorities in 2012: Brazil, Mexico, India
• Priorities In 2013: China, SE Asia, MENA, Eastern Europe
5. Silicon Valley 2.0:
Lots of Little Bets
aka “MoneyBall for Startups”
• VC Evolution: Physician, Scale Thyself (Aug 2012)
• MoneyBall for Startups, 500 Startups Investment Thesis (Jul 2010)
6. Changes in Tech Startups
• LESS Capital required to build product, get to market
– Dramatically reduced $$$ on servers, software, bandwidth
– Crowdfunding, KickStarter, Angel List, Funders Club, etc
– Cheap access to online platforms for 100M+ consumers, smallbiz, etc
– A few big IPOs @ $1B+, but LOTS of small acquisitions (<$100M)
• MORE Customers via ONLINE platforms (100M+ users)
– Search (Google)
– Social (Facebook, Twitter)
– Mobile (Apple, Android)
– Local (Yelp, Groupon, Living Social)
– Media (YouTube, Pinterest, Instagram, Tumblr)
– Comm (Email, IM/Chat, Voice, SMS, etc)
• LOTS of little bets: Accelerators, Angels, Angel List, Small Exits
– Y Combinator, TechStars, 500 Startups
– Funding + Co-working + Mentoring -> Design, Data, Distribution
– “Fast, Cheap Fail”, network effects, quantitative + iterative investments
8. Daft Punk Lean Startup:
Simpler, Faster, Cheaper, Smarter
1. Startup Costs = Lower.
2. # Users, Bandwidth = Bigger.
3. Transaction $$$ = Better.
Building Product => Cheaper, Faster, Better
Getting Customers => Easier, More Measurable
Iterative Product & Marketing Decisions
based on Measured User Behavior
9. Lean Startup, Lean VC
Customers, Metrics, Iteration.
Invest BEFORE Traction;
Double Down AFTER.
10. The Lean VC:
Lots of Little Bets, Incremental Investment
Method: Invest in lots of startups using incremental
investment, iterative development. Start with many
small experiments, filter out failures, and expand
investment in successes… (Rinse & Repeat).
• Incubator: $0-100K (“Build & Validate Product”)
• Seed: $100K-$1M (“Test & Grow Marketing Channels””)
• Venture: $1M-$10M (“Maximize Growth & Revenue”)
11. 11
500 Strategy: “Lots of Little Bets”*
1) Make lots of little
bets pre-traction,
early-stage startups
2) after 6-12 months, identify
top 20% performers and
double-down higher $$$
3) conservative model assumes
-5-10% large exits @20X ($50-100M+)
-10-20% small exits @5X ($5-50M)
*See Peter Sims book: “Little Bets”
12. Investment Stage #1:
Product Validation + Customer Usage
• Structure
– 1-3 founders
– $25-$100K investment
– Incubator environment: multiple peers, mentors/advisors
• Test Functional Prototype / “Minimum Viable Product” (MVP):
– Prototype->Alpha, ~3-6 months
– Develop Minimal Critical Feature Set => Get to “It Works! Someone Uses It.”
– Improve Design & Usability, Setup Conversion Metrics
– Test Small-Scale Customer Adoption (10-1000 users)
• Demonstrate Concept, Reduce Product Risk, Test Functional Use
• Develop Metrics & Filter for Possible Future Investment
13. Investment Stage #2:
Market Validation + Revenue Testing
• Structure
– 2-10 person team
– $100K-$1M investment
– Syndicate of Angel Investors / Small VC Funds
• Improve Product, Expand Customers, Test Revenue:
– Alpha->Beta, ~6-12 months
– Scale Customer Adoption => “Many People Use It, & They Pay.”
– Test Marketing Campaigns, Customer Acquisition Channels + Cost
– Test Revenue Generation, Find Profitable Customer Segments
• Prove Solution/Benefit, Assess Market Size
• Test Channel Cost, Revenue Opportunity
• Determine Org Structure, Key Hires
14. Investment Stage #3:
Revenue Validation + Growth
• Structure
– 5-25 person team
– $1M-$10M investment
– Seed & Venture Investors
• Make Money (or Go Big), Get to Sustainability:
– Beta->Production, 12-24 months
– Revenue / Growth => “We Can Make (a lot of) Money!”
– Mktg Plan => Predictable Channels / Campaigns + Budget
– Scalability & Infrastructure, Customer Service & Operations
– Connect with Distribution Partners, Expand Growth
• Prove/Expand Market, Operationalize Business
• Future Milestones: Profitable/Sustainable, Exit Options
16. Early-Stage Investment 101:
Incremental Risk Reduction
• 1st
Mtg: Crazy, Idiots, Liars or Crooks?
• Product: does it work? (crappy, not perfect)
• Market: are people using it? (not their mom)
• Revenue: will people pay for it? (just a few)
• Growth: how will it/they scale? (online? offline?)
• Finance: what will it cost?
– Q1: cost to get a customer?
– Q2: how & when do you make money?
17. Bet on Singles, Not HomeRuns.
(Look for Ichiros, Not Barry Bonds)
20. Before & After 2 Dot-Com Crashes
Daft Punk Startup: Simpler, Faster, Cheaper, Smarter
Before 2000
•Sun Servers
•Oracle DB
•Exodus Hosting
•12-24mo dev cycle
•6-18mo sales cycle
•<100M people online
•$1-2M seed round
•$3-5M Series A
•Sand Hill Road crawl
•Big, Fat, Dinosaur Startup
After 2008
•AWS, Google, PayPal, FB, TW
•Cloud + Open Source SW
•Lean Startup / Startup Wknd
•3-90d dev cycle
•SaaS / online sales
•>3B people online
•<$100K incub + <$1M seed
•$1-3M Series A
•Angel List global visibility
•Lean, Little, Cockroach Startup
21. Crunch Good? Crunch Bad?
• Series A bar higher: $1M revenue, 1M active users,
10M downloads, 100% YoY growth
• Lots of Incubation / Seed startups will “fail”
• BUT: Fail Budget = $50-$500K, not $5M+
• Many “failed” startups = ramen-profitable, small
acquisition, or MBA alternative (<$100K)
• Series A/B VCs have lots to choose from
• Overall, founders / market getting smarter
• More focus on customers, problems, revenue
• Many die, some survive (1-5x), a few thrive (20x+).
22. Formula 4 Getting “UN-Crunched”
• Build Something People Want (Problem/Need)
• …and will PAY FOR (Business Model)
• Get Customers (Not Your Mom)
then…
• Just GROW, Baby. (Growth Hackers FTW)
– Users
– Usage
– Revenue
23. Angel* List: It Rocks.
• Startups & Investors
• Activity & Metrics
• Platform & APIs
• *ps – not just for Angels, or USA
27. Web 2.0 Business Model:
KISS (“Keep It Simple, Stupid”)
• 1) Re-invent Web 1.0 Businesses
– Make a Website, a Widget, an App
– Sell Stuff (Transactions, Subscriptions, Affiliate)
• 2) add Web 2.0 Technology
– Search, Social, Mobile, Local, Media, Comm
– Google, Facebook/Twitter, Apple/Android, YouTube
– Email, SMS, Ecommerce / Payments
• 3) Get Customers, Make Money
– Distribution, Distribution, Distribution
– (Customer Acq’stn Cost) vs. ($Rev. Per Customer)
– Low CapX + Profitable Web Businesses
28. More Acquirers (tech + non-tech);
More & Smaller Acquisitions
1. Mature Internet Platform Co’s:
– GOOG, MSFT, YHOO, EBAY, AOL, AMZN,
AAPL, INTU, ADBE, FB, TW, LNKD, GRPN
1. Non-Tech “BigCo” / Consumer Verticals
buying tech startups (for distribution)
• BigCo = Lots of Customers, $$$
• BigCo = Bureaucracy, Innovator Dilemma
• Outsource Innovation; Buy Talent / Products
• Acquiring LOTS (Small) Startups
• Great for Founders, Investors
* Mint acquired by Intuit in
Sept 2009 for $170M
29. Startup Incubators & Metrics
Lots of Little Bets. Most FAIL.
(but a few succeed :)
30. Incubator 2.0: Fast, Cheap, FAIL
• Incubators = supportive startup ecosystem (+ angels, VCs)
• Efficient use of investment capital ($0-100K)
• High fail rate (60-80%) => large initial sample size
31. Incubator 2.0:
Education, Collaboration, Iteration
• Success based on:
– MANY, small experiments
– common platforms, customers, problems & solutions
– physical proximity, open/collaborative environment
– Domain-specific mentors & expertise
– fast fail, iteration, metrics & feedback loop
• Incremental investment; high-risk, but high-reward
32. Minimum Viable Team:
Hacker, Hipster, Hustler
• Hacker: engineers & developers
• Hipster: design & user experience (UX)
• Hustler: marketing & business, “growth hacker”
1.Build functional prototypes
2.Improve UX so people convert
3.Scale customer acquisition & distribution
33. Product, Market, Revenue
• Product: assess functional use, improve design/UX
• Market: test usage, distribution channels
• Revenue: test cust acq cost, revenue, timing of both
• Pitch: Work on Pitch, Help Find Co-Investors, etc
34. Outlier Competition +
Modeling Success Behaviors
• Goal: 3-5 “rockstars” to compete (w/ each other)
• A-students model success for B & C students
– (and B & C students model FAIL for A-students)
• Can’t assume >20% rockstars, so…
– Aim for 15-25+ teams (x 20% = 3-5 outliers)
• 3-5 great teams emerge, compete, win
– 5-10 *other* lesser teams learn & win too
35. fbFund REV
fbFund REV: Facebook “Social” Incubator: invest in startups, apps,
websites based on Facebook platform & Facebook Connect.
• 22 startups @ ~$35K each (< $1M total)
• 3 month program: Technology, Design, Marketing, Business topics
• Success: 8 startups raised $500K –> 5 Series A -> 3 Series B (+ 3 small exits)
• Wildfire Interactive acquired by GOOG for $350M (>50X)
37. Most Businesses
Suck @ Innovation.
• They Don’t Know Technology.
• They Don’t Know How to Code.
• They Don’t Know SEO or SEM.
• They Don’t Know Email Marketing.
• They Don’t Know Social, Video, Local, Mobile.
• They Don’t Know Good Design or UX.
• They Don’t Know How to Cut & Paste.
• They Don’t Know How to Use PayPal.
38. Most Things Suck.
• But, We Can Easily Make Most Things Better.
• Tech + Web = Reduced Overhead Costs.
• Search + Social Platforms = Better Marketing.
• Copy Existing Business Model = Reduced Risk.
• FOCUS = Make ONEthing / SOMEthing Better.
40. You Don’t Have to be Tony Stark
• Just Copy/Use the Stuff that Tony Stark Makes.
– Tip: Most People Won’t Notice U Aren’t Tony Stark.
• Copy/Use 99% All The Amazing Stuff Out There.
• Innovate on the other 1%.
• Innovate 1% More Every Month.
• Then Kick Back and Have a Beer.
42. Formula 4 Awesome:
Notice Things That Suck. Make Them Suck Less.
• Most Offline Businesses Are Inefficient. (Web 1.0, Web 0.0)
• Lots of Overhead, Crappy UX, Crappy Marketing.
• Copy Their Business Model (It Already Makes $$$).
• Reduce Overhead Cost (Be a Scrappy Startup).
• Increase Marketing Efficiency (Do Online Marheting).
• Copy/Integrate 99% Awesome Stuff (aka Tech)
• Innovate on the Remaining 1%.
• Keep Innovating 1%. Every Month
43. Ok, Let’s Try It.
• Find an existing, physical-world big dumb
business that makes money, but kinda sucks.
• Verify they have high overhead costs, inefficient
[offline] marketing, crappy service.
• Copy the business model, reduce overhead costs,
improve marketing.
• Add some awesome technology, and then
innovate on ONE important thing.
46. 3 Basic Types of Brands:
Virgin, Southwest, [Niche]
• Virgin = “Mass Luxury” (+ sexy)
– High-End Look & Feel, priced just barely within reach of most
middle-class customers, who love the “red-carpet” treatment
• Southwest = “Convenience & Value” (+ funny)
– Stuff that just works, not very expensive, great value
for everybody. (Who doesn’t like Southwest?)
• [Niche] = “Just for You & Me”
– Designed for well-defined customer segments / attributes.
– Less competition, higher margins, better retention
– Ex: Gay, Old, Black, Short, Female, Moms, Left-Handed, Etc
48. Global Trends
• Growth of Global Languages (see MyGengo.com)
– 1B+ speakers: Mandarin, English
– 300-500M+ spkrs: Spanish, Arabic
• Smart Device Proliferation
– mobile, tablet, TV, console, etc
• More Young, More Old ($$$) Users Online
• More Bandwidth, More Video, More Social, More Mobile
• Wealthy Chinese + Indian, Web + IRL Globetrotters ($$$B)
• Acceleration of Global Payment, E-Commerce
• Dramatically Reduced Cost: Product Dev, Customer Acqstn
• Global Distribution Platforms
– US/EU: Apple, Facebook, AMZN, GOOG (Search, YouTube, Gmail, Android), Twitter
– Asia: Baidu, Tencent, Alibaba, Sina, NHN, Yahoo-J, Softbank, Rakuten, DeNA, Gree
49. Thanks
• Questions / More Info?
– http://500.co (our company)
– http://500hats.com (my blog)
– https://angel.co/500startups (our fund)
– Rui Ma, 500 Startups China (@MissRuiMa)
– Khailee Ng, 500 Startups SE Asia (@Khailee)
– Dave McClure, 500 Startups USA (@DaveMcClure)