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Silicon Valley 2.0
  Lean Startup, Lean VC
Re-Inventing Venture Capital through
 Innovation, Incubation, & Iteration




            Dave McClure
               http://500.co
                   (@DaveMcClure)
                      May 2012
         http://slideshare.net/dmc500hats
Changes in Tech Startups
• LESS Capital required to build product, get to market
   – Dramatically reduced $$$ on servers, software, bandwidth
   – Cheap access to online platforms for 100M+ consumers, smallbiz, etc
   – A few big IPOs @ $1B+, but LOTS of small acquisitions (<$100M)

• MORE Customers via ONLINE platforms (100M+ users)
   –   Search (Google)
   –   Social (Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn)
   –   Mobile (Apple, Android)
   –   Local (Groupon, Living Social, Yelp)
   –   Media (YouTube, Pinterest, Tumblr)
   –   Communications (Email, IM/Chat, Voice, SMS, etc)

• LOTS of little bets: Accelerators, Angels, Angel List
   – Y Combinator, TechStars, 500 Startups, AngelPad
   – Funding + Co-working + Mentoring -> Design, Data, Distribution
   – “Fast Cheap Fail”, network effects, quantitative + iterative investments
Web 2.0 + Lean Startup

   2. Startup Costs = Lower.
   3. # Users, Bandwidth = Bigger.
   4. Transaction $$$ = Better.

 Building Product => Cheaper, Faster, Better
 Getting Customers => Easier, More Measurable

Iterative Product & Marketing Decisions
based on Measured User Behavior
Dave McClure


00’s & 10’s:
• Investor: Founders Fund, Facebook fbFund, 500 Startups
• Companies: Mint.com, SlideShare, Twilio, WildFire, SendGrid
• Marketing: PayPal, Simply Hired, Mint.com, O’Reilly Media
• Speaker: Lean Startup, Web 2.0, Stanford/Facebook

80’s & 90’s:
• Entrepreneur: Founder/CEO Aslan Computing (acq’d)
• Developer: Windows / SQL DB consultant (Intel, MSFT)
• Engineer: Johns Hopkins‘88, BS Eng / Applied Math
500 Startups:
                   “Super-Angel / Micro-VC” Fund
• Seed Fund & Startup Accelerator
  –   250+ Companies (Fund I, $29M)
  –   9-person team, 4 partners
  –   10,000 sq ft, HQ in Silicon Valley
  –   100+ Mentors in 10+ Countries


• Fund I Portfolio: 250
  –   Twilio (Union Square, Bessemer)
  –   Wildfire (Summit)
  –   SendGrid (Foundry, Bessemer)
  –   TaskRabbit (First Round)
  –   MakerBot (Foundry)
  –   Viki (Greylock, Andreessen)
  –   Smule (Bessemer, Granite)
500 Strategy: Lots of Little Bets
1. Start with large,
  well-screened                                 30%
  funnel of early-                             Fund
  stage companies.                            Capital


2. After first 6-12 months,                 70 %
    identify best performers                Fund
    double-down on top 20%                 Capital


1. Build conservative model assuming
   5-10% larger exits @ > $100M,
   10-20% smaller exits @ <$100M




                                       6
Tech Investor Ecosystem

                  Y-Combinator
                                Angels &
               TechStars       Incubators
                                ($0-10M)


      SV Angel (Conway)
                                              SoftTech (Clavier)
                           “Micro-VC” Funds
    Floodgate (Maples)        ($10-100M)
                                                  Felicis (Senkut)
      First Round                                  True Ventures
                           Smaller VC Funds
   Union Square              ($100-500M)             Foundry Group
                                                         Andreessen-
    Accel
                                                          Horowitz
   Partners                Larger VC Funds
                               (>$500M)
                                                              Sequoia
Greylock
Platforms 2.0
Search, Social, Mobile
Platform Viability
Successful Platforms
have 3 Things:          Features
1) Features
2) Users
3) Money
                   Growth             Profit
                            Nirvana

                                .
                        Profitable
           Users           .
                         Growth Money
Distribution Platforms
Customer Reach: 100M+

  • Search: Google

  • Social: Facebook, Twitter, Zynga, LinkedIn

  • Mobile: Apple (iOS), Android

  • Local: Groupon, LivingSocial, Yelp

  • Media: Video (YouTube), Blogs (Tumblr), Photos (Pinterest)

  • Comm: Email, IM/Chat, Skype, Phone/Voice
Web 2.0 Business Model:
           KISS (“Keep It Simple, Stupid”)
• 1) Re-invent Web 1.0 Businesses
   – Make a Website, a Widget, an App
   – Sell Stuff (Transactions, Subscriptions, Affiliate)

• 2) add Web 2.0 Technology
   – Search, Social, Mobile, Local, Media, Comm
   – Google, Facebook/Twitter, Apple/Android
   – Email, SMS, Ecommerce / Payments

• 3) Get Customers, Make Money
   – Distribution, Distribution, Distribution
   – (Customer Acq’stn Cost) vs. ($Rev. Per Customer)
   – Low CapX + Profitable Web Businesses
More Acquirers (tech + non-tech);
          More & Smaller Acquisitions
1. Mature Internet Platform Co’s:
    – GOOG, MSFT, YHOO, EBAY, AOL, AMZN,
      AAPL, INTU, ADBE, FB, TW, LNKD, GRPN


2. Non-Tech “BigCo” / Consumer Verticals
   buying tech startups (for distribution)

•   BigCo = Lots of Customers, $$$
•   BigCo = Bureaucracy, Innovator Dilemma
•   Outsource Innovation; Buy Talent / Products
•   Acquiring LOTS (Small) Startups
•   Great for Founders, Investors 
                                                  * Mint acquired by Intuit in
                                                  Sept 2009 for $170M
Lean Startup, Lean VC
 Customers, Metrics, Iteration.
  Invest BEFORE Traction;
    Double Down AFTER.
The Lean Startup
•   Progress ≠ Features; Measure Conversion
•   Talk to Customers; Discover Problems
•   Focus on “Product/Market Fit” (good solution)
•   Fast, Frequent Iteration (+ Feedback Loop)
•   Keep it Simple & Actionable
Startup Metrics for Pirates

• Acquisition: users come to site from various
  channels
• Activation: users enjoy 1st visit: "happy” experience
• Retention: users come back, visit site multiple times
• Referral: users like product enough to refer others
• Revenue: users conduct some monetization behavior
                                         AARRR!




   (note: If you’re in a hurry, Google
   “Startup Metrics” & watch 5m video)
AARRR!: 5-Step Startup Metrics Model
                                      SEO          Campaigns,
                          SEM                PR     Contests
                                                                    Biz
           Social
          Networks                                                  Dev
                             Blogs                  Affiliates
         Apps &                                                    Direct, Tel,
         Widgets                     Email                             TV
                                         ACQUISITION
                   Domains




        Emails & Alerts




Blogs, RSS,
                              n
News Feeds
                     Retentio

                                                  Ads, Lead Gen,                  Biz Dev
            System Events &                       Subscriptions,
                                                                       Re v
          Time-based Features
                                                   ECommerce
                                                                         en u
                                                    Website.com
                                                                            e $$
                                                                                $
Startup Incubators & Metrics

    Lots of Little Bets. Most FAIL.
        (but a few succeed :)
Incubator 2.0: Fast, Cheap, FAIL
• Incubators = supportive startup ecosystem (+ angels, VCs)
• Efficient use of investment capital ($0-100K)
• High fail rate (60-80%) => large initial sample size
Incubator 2.0:
  Education, Collaboration, Iteration




• Success based on:
  –   MANY, small experiments
  –   common platforms, customers, problems & solutions
  –   physical proximity, open/collaborative environment
  –   Domain-specific mentors & expertise
  –   fast fail, iteration, metrics & feedback loop
• Incremental investment; high-risk, but high-reward
fbFund REV
fbFund REV: Facebook “Social” Incubator: invest in startups, apps,
  websites based on Facebook platform & Facebook Connect.
•   22 startups @ ~$35K each ($850K total)
•   3 month program: Technology, Design, Marketing, Business topics
•   Success: 8 startups raised $500K –> 5 raised Series A -> 2 raised Series B
•   Wildfire Interactive now 300+ people 
The Lean VC:
         Lots of Little Bets, Incremental Investment

Method: Invest in lots of startups using incremental
 investment, iterative development. Start with many
 small experiments, filter out failures, and expand
 investment in successes… (Rinse & Repeat).

• Incubator: $0-100K (“Build & Validate Product”)
• Seed: $100K-$1M (“Test & Grow Marketing Channels””)
• Venture: $1M-$10M (“Maximize Growth & Revenue”)
Investment Stage #1:
  Product Validation + Customer Usage
• Structure
   – 1-3 founders
   – $25-$100K investment
   – Incubator environment: multiple peers, mentors/advisors


• Test Functional Prototype / “Minimum Viable Product” (MVP):
   –   Prototype->Alpha, ~3-6 months
   –   Develop Minimal Critical Feature Set => Get to “It Works! Someone Uses It.”
   –   Improve Design & Usability, Setup Conversion Metrics
   –   Test Small-Scale Customer Adoption (10-1000 users)

• Demonstrate Concept, Reduce Product Risk, Test Functional Use
• Develop Metrics & Filter for Possible Future Investment
Investment Stage #2:
   Market Validation + Revenue Testing
• Structure
   – 2-10 person team
   – $100K-$1M investment
   – Syndicate of Angel Investors / Small VC Funds


• Improve Product, Expand Customers, Test Revenue:
   –   Alpha->Beta, ~6-12 months
   –   Scale Customer Adoption => “Many People Use It, & They Pay.”
   –   Test Marketing Campaigns, Customer Acquisition Channels + Cost
   –   Test Revenue Generation, Find Profitable Customer Segments

• Prove Solution/Benefit, Assess Market Size
• Test Channel Cost, Revenue Opportunity
• Determine Org Structure, Key Hires
Investment Stage #3:
            Revenue Validation + Growth
• Structure
   – 5-25 person team
   – $1M-$10M investment
   – Seed & Venture Investors


• Make Money (or Go Big), Get to Sustainability:
   –   Beta->Production, 12-24 months
   –   Revenue / Growth => “We Can Make (a lot of) Money!”
   –   Mktg Plan => Predictable Channels / Campaigns + Budget
   –   Scalability & Infrastructure, Customer Service & Operations
   –   Connect with Distribution Partners, Expand Growth

• Prove/Expand Market, Operationalize Business
• Future Milestones: Profitable/Sustainable, Exit Options
Underpants 2.0
1. Make a Good Product: Activation & Retention
2. Market the Product: Acquisition & Referral
3. Make Money: Revenue & Profitability

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Silicon Valley 2.0: Lean Startup, Lean VC

  • 1. Silicon Valley 2.0 Lean Startup, Lean VC Re-Inventing Venture Capital through Innovation, Incubation, & Iteration Dave McClure http://500.co (@DaveMcClure) May 2012 http://slideshare.net/dmc500hats
  • 2. Changes in Tech Startups • LESS Capital required to build product, get to market – Dramatically reduced $$$ on servers, software, bandwidth – Cheap access to online platforms for 100M+ consumers, smallbiz, etc – A few big IPOs @ $1B+, but LOTS of small acquisitions (<$100M) • MORE Customers via ONLINE platforms (100M+ users) – Search (Google) – Social (Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn) – Mobile (Apple, Android) – Local (Groupon, Living Social, Yelp) – Media (YouTube, Pinterest, Tumblr) – Communications (Email, IM/Chat, Voice, SMS, etc) • LOTS of little bets: Accelerators, Angels, Angel List – Y Combinator, TechStars, 500 Startups, AngelPad – Funding + Co-working + Mentoring -> Design, Data, Distribution – “Fast Cheap Fail”, network effects, quantitative + iterative investments
  • 3. Web 2.0 + Lean Startup 2. Startup Costs = Lower. 3. # Users, Bandwidth = Bigger. 4. Transaction $$$ = Better.  Building Product => Cheaper, Faster, Better  Getting Customers => Easier, More Measurable Iterative Product & Marketing Decisions based on Measured User Behavior
  • 4. Dave McClure 00’s & 10’s: • Investor: Founders Fund, Facebook fbFund, 500 Startups • Companies: Mint.com, SlideShare, Twilio, WildFire, SendGrid • Marketing: PayPal, Simply Hired, Mint.com, O’Reilly Media • Speaker: Lean Startup, Web 2.0, Stanford/Facebook 80’s & 90’s: • Entrepreneur: Founder/CEO Aslan Computing (acq’d) • Developer: Windows / SQL DB consultant (Intel, MSFT) • Engineer: Johns Hopkins‘88, BS Eng / Applied Math
  • 5. 500 Startups: “Super-Angel / Micro-VC” Fund • Seed Fund & Startup Accelerator – 250+ Companies (Fund I, $29M) – 9-person team, 4 partners – 10,000 sq ft, HQ in Silicon Valley – 100+ Mentors in 10+ Countries • Fund I Portfolio: 250 – Twilio (Union Square, Bessemer) – Wildfire (Summit) – SendGrid (Foundry, Bessemer) – TaskRabbit (First Round) – MakerBot (Foundry) – Viki (Greylock, Andreessen) – Smule (Bessemer, Granite)
  • 6. 500 Strategy: Lots of Little Bets 1. Start with large, well-screened 30% funnel of early- Fund stage companies. Capital 2. After first 6-12 months, 70 % identify best performers Fund double-down on top 20% Capital 1. Build conservative model assuming 5-10% larger exits @ > $100M, 10-20% smaller exits @ <$100M 6
  • 7. Tech Investor Ecosystem Y-Combinator Angels & TechStars Incubators ($0-10M) SV Angel (Conway) SoftTech (Clavier) “Micro-VC” Funds Floodgate (Maples) ($10-100M) Felicis (Senkut) First Round True Ventures Smaller VC Funds Union Square ($100-500M) Foundry Group Andreessen- Accel Horowitz Partners Larger VC Funds (>$500M) Sequoia Greylock
  • 9. Platform Viability Successful Platforms have 3 Things: Features 1) Features 2) Users 3) Money Growth Profit Nirvana . Profitable Users . Growth Money
  • 10. Distribution Platforms Customer Reach: 100M+ • Search: Google • Social: Facebook, Twitter, Zynga, LinkedIn • Mobile: Apple (iOS), Android • Local: Groupon, LivingSocial, Yelp • Media: Video (YouTube), Blogs (Tumblr), Photos (Pinterest) • Comm: Email, IM/Chat, Skype, Phone/Voice
  • 11. Web 2.0 Business Model: KISS (“Keep It Simple, Stupid”) • 1) Re-invent Web 1.0 Businesses – Make a Website, a Widget, an App – Sell Stuff (Transactions, Subscriptions, Affiliate) • 2) add Web 2.0 Technology – Search, Social, Mobile, Local, Media, Comm – Google, Facebook/Twitter, Apple/Android – Email, SMS, Ecommerce / Payments • 3) Get Customers, Make Money – Distribution, Distribution, Distribution – (Customer Acq’stn Cost) vs. ($Rev. Per Customer) – Low CapX + Profitable Web Businesses
  • 12. More Acquirers (tech + non-tech); More & Smaller Acquisitions 1. Mature Internet Platform Co’s: – GOOG, MSFT, YHOO, EBAY, AOL, AMZN, AAPL, INTU, ADBE, FB, TW, LNKD, GRPN 2. Non-Tech “BigCo” / Consumer Verticals buying tech startups (for distribution) • BigCo = Lots of Customers, $$$ • BigCo = Bureaucracy, Innovator Dilemma • Outsource Innovation; Buy Talent / Products • Acquiring LOTS (Small) Startups • Great for Founders, Investors  * Mint acquired by Intuit in Sept 2009 for $170M
  • 13. Lean Startup, Lean VC Customers, Metrics, Iteration. Invest BEFORE Traction; Double Down AFTER.
  • 14. The Lean Startup • Progress ≠ Features; Measure Conversion • Talk to Customers; Discover Problems • Focus on “Product/Market Fit” (good solution) • Fast, Frequent Iteration (+ Feedback Loop) • Keep it Simple & Actionable
  • 15. Startup Metrics for Pirates • Acquisition: users come to site from various channels • Activation: users enjoy 1st visit: "happy” experience • Retention: users come back, visit site multiple times • Referral: users like product enough to refer others • Revenue: users conduct some monetization behavior AARRR! (note: If you’re in a hurry, Google “Startup Metrics” & watch 5m video)
  • 16. AARRR!: 5-Step Startup Metrics Model SEO Campaigns, SEM PR Contests Biz Social Networks Dev Blogs Affiliates Apps & Direct, Tel, Widgets Email TV ACQUISITION Domains Emails & Alerts Blogs, RSS, n News Feeds Retentio Ads, Lead Gen, Biz Dev System Events & Subscriptions, Re v Time-based Features ECommerce en u Website.com e $$ $
  • 17. Startup Incubators & Metrics Lots of Little Bets. Most FAIL. (but a few succeed :)
  • 18. Incubator 2.0: Fast, Cheap, FAIL • Incubators = supportive startup ecosystem (+ angels, VCs) • Efficient use of investment capital ($0-100K) • High fail rate (60-80%) => large initial sample size
  • 19. Incubator 2.0: Education, Collaboration, Iteration • Success based on: – MANY, small experiments – common platforms, customers, problems & solutions – physical proximity, open/collaborative environment – Domain-specific mentors & expertise – fast fail, iteration, metrics & feedback loop • Incremental investment; high-risk, but high-reward
  • 20. fbFund REV fbFund REV: Facebook “Social” Incubator: invest in startups, apps, websites based on Facebook platform & Facebook Connect. • 22 startups @ ~$35K each ($850K total) • 3 month program: Technology, Design, Marketing, Business topics • Success: 8 startups raised $500K –> 5 raised Series A -> 2 raised Series B • Wildfire Interactive now 300+ people 
  • 21. The Lean VC: Lots of Little Bets, Incremental Investment Method: Invest in lots of startups using incremental investment, iterative development. Start with many small experiments, filter out failures, and expand investment in successes… (Rinse & Repeat). • Incubator: $0-100K (“Build & Validate Product”) • Seed: $100K-$1M (“Test & Grow Marketing Channels””) • Venture: $1M-$10M (“Maximize Growth & Revenue”)
  • 22. Investment Stage #1: Product Validation + Customer Usage • Structure – 1-3 founders – $25-$100K investment – Incubator environment: multiple peers, mentors/advisors • Test Functional Prototype / “Minimum Viable Product” (MVP): – Prototype->Alpha, ~3-6 months – Develop Minimal Critical Feature Set => Get to “It Works! Someone Uses It.” – Improve Design & Usability, Setup Conversion Metrics – Test Small-Scale Customer Adoption (10-1000 users) • Demonstrate Concept, Reduce Product Risk, Test Functional Use • Develop Metrics & Filter for Possible Future Investment
  • 23. Investment Stage #2: Market Validation + Revenue Testing • Structure – 2-10 person team – $100K-$1M investment – Syndicate of Angel Investors / Small VC Funds • Improve Product, Expand Customers, Test Revenue: – Alpha->Beta, ~6-12 months – Scale Customer Adoption => “Many People Use It, & They Pay.” – Test Marketing Campaigns, Customer Acquisition Channels + Cost – Test Revenue Generation, Find Profitable Customer Segments • Prove Solution/Benefit, Assess Market Size • Test Channel Cost, Revenue Opportunity • Determine Org Structure, Key Hires
  • 24. Investment Stage #3: Revenue Validation + Growth • Structure – 5-25 person team – $1M-$10M investment – Seed & Venture Investors • Make Money (or Go Big), Get to Sustainability: – Beta->Production, 12-24 months – Revenue / Growth => “We Can Make (a lot of) Money!” – Mktg Plan => Predictable Channels / Campaigns + Budget – Scalability & Infrastructure, Customer Service & Operations – Connect with Distribution Partners, Expand Growth • Prove/Expand Market, Operationalize Business • Future Milestones: Profitable/Sustainable, Exit Options
  • 25. Underpants 2.0 1. Make a Good Product: Activation & Retention 2. Market the Product: Acquisition & Referral 3. Make Money: Revenue & Profitability