The Deloitte Consumer Tracker Q1 2016
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The latest Deloitte Consumer Tracker shows a degree of caution returning to the sector as confidence falls. Learn more: http://deloi.tt/1VS7zYE
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The Deloitte Consumer Tracker Q1 2016
- 1. ADeloitte Consumer Tracker Confidence pauses as consumers react to wider uncertainty The Deloitte Consumer Tracker Confidence pauses as consumers react to wider uncertainty Q1 2016 Deloitte Insight
- 2. 1Deloitte Consumer Tracker Confidence pauses as consumers react to wider uncertainty *Net balances Overall consumer confidence (q/q)* LatestPrevious -7% -8% Confidence in level of disposable income (q/q)* Previous Latest -11% -14% Essentials spending (y/y)* Previous Latest +5% +5% Discretionary spending (y/y)* Previous Latest -8% -7% ONS retail sales value growth Feb-16 (y/y) CPI inflation Mar-16 (y/y) Previous Latest +2.7% +2.1% Previous Latest +0% +0.5% The Deloitte Consumer Tracker – Q1 2016 Key indicators
- 3. 2Deloitte Consumer Tracker Confidence pauses as consumers react to wider uncertainty Chart 1. Deloitte Consumer Confidence Net % of UK consumers who said their level of confidence has improved over the past three months -20% -16% -12% -8% -4% 0% Q1 2016 Q4 2015 Q3 2015 Q2 2015 Q1 2015 Q4 2014 Q3 2014 Q2 2014 Q1 2014 Q4 2013 Q3 2013 Q2 2013 Q1 2013 Q4 2012 Q3 2012 Q2 2012 Q1 2012 Q4 2011 Q3 2011 The Deloitte Consumer Tracker – Q1 2016 Confidence pauses as consumers react to wider uncertainty
- 4. 3Deloitte Consumer Tracker Confidence pauses as consumers react to wider uncertainty Chart 2. UK consumer sentiment about personal situation Net % of consumers who said their level of confidence had improved in the past three months Q1 2012 Q1 2013 Q1 2014 Q1 2015 Q1 2016 -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% Your general health and wellbeing Your level of debt Your household disposable income Your job opportunities/ career progression Your job security Your children’s education and welfare -11% -12% -8% -13% -19% -40% -31% -20% -13% -14% -10% -10% -5% -4% -7% -9% -9% -3% -2% -1% -3% -2% +1% +1% -1% -12% -10% -5% -1% -5% The Deloitte Consumer Tracker – Q1 2016 Health and wellbeing drives fall in confidence
- 5. 4Deloitte Consumer Tracker Confidence pauses as consumers react to wider uncertainty Chart 3. Consumer sentiment about general health and wellbeing Net % of consumers who said their wellbeing has improved over the past three months Q1 2016 Q4 2015 Q3 2015 Q2 2015 Q1 2015 Q4 2014 Q3 2014 Q2 2014 Q1 2014 Q4 2013 Q3 2013 Q2 2013 Q1 2013 Q4 2012 Q3 2012 Q2 2012 Q1 2012 Q4 2011 Q3 2011 -20% -18% -16% -14% -12% -10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% The Deloitte Consumer Tracker – Q1 2016 Health and wellbeing drives fall in confidence
- 6. 5Deloitte Consumer Tracker Confidence pauses as consumers react to wider uncertainty Chart 4. Consumer sentiment about job security and job opportunities Net % of UK consumers who said their level of confidence has improved over the pas three months Q1 2016 Q4 2015 Q3 2015 Q2 2015 Q1 2015 Q4 2014 Q3 2014 Q2 2014 Q1 2014 Q4 2013 Q3 2013 Q2 2013 Q1 2013 Q4 2012 Q3 2012 Q2 2012 Q1 2012 Q4 2011 Q3 2011 Your job security Your job opportunities/career progression -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% The Deloitte Consumer Tracker – Q1 2016 Health and wellbeing drives fall in confidence
- 7. 6Deloitte Consumer Tracker Confidence pauses as consumers react to wider uncertainty Chart 5. Overall confidence of non-home owners vs homeowners Net % of non-homeowners and homeowners who say their confidence has improved -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% Q1 2016 Q4 2015 Q3 2015 Q2 2015 Q1 2015 Q4 2014 Q3 2014 Q2 2014 Q1 2014 Q4 2013 Q3 2013 Q2 2013 Q1 2013 Q4 2012 Q3 2012 Q2 2012 Q1 2012 Q4 2011 Q3 2011 Non-homeowners Homeowners The Deloitte Consumer Tracker – Q1 2016 Confidence among Londoners and non‑homeowners falls
- 8. 7Deloitte Consumer Tracker Confidence pauses as consumers react to wider uncertainty Chart 6. Consumer confidence in London Net % of people in London who say their confidence has improved Job security Disposable income -35% -30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% Q1 2016 Q4 2015 Q3 2015 Q2 2015 Q1 2015 Q4 2014 Q3 2014 Q2 2014 Q1 2014 Q4 2013 Q3 2013 Q2 2013 Q1 2013 Q4 2012 Q3 2012 Q2 2012 Q1 2012 Q4 2011 Q3 2011 The Deloitte Consumer Tracker – Q1 2016 Confidence among Londoners and non‑homeowners falls
- 9. 8Deloitte Consumer Tracker Confidence pauses as consumers react to wider uncertainty Chart 7. Deloitte CFO Survey % of CFOs who rate the level of external financial and economic uncertainty facing their business as above normal, high or very high 45% 55% 65% 75% 85% 95% 2016 Q1 15 Q3 15 Q1 14 Q3 14 Q1 13 Q3 13 Q1 12 Q3 12 Q1 11 Q3 11 Q1 2010 Q3 The Deloitte Consumer Tracker – Q1 2016 Confidence among Londoners and non‑homeowners falls
- 10. 9Deloitte Consumer Tracker Confidence pauses as consumers react to wider uncertainty Chart 8. Essentials vs discretionary Net % UK consumers spending more by category Essentials Small-ticket items Big-ticket items -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% Q12016 Q42015 Q32015 Q22015 Q12015 Q42014 Q32014 Q22014 Q12014 Q42013 Q32013 Q22013 Q12013 Q42012 Q32012 Q22012 Q12012 Q42011 Q32011 The Deloitte Consumer Tracker – Q1 2016 Spending remains robust
- 11. 10Deloitte Consumer Tracker Confidence pauses as consumers react to wider uncertainty Chart 9. Category spending in the last three months Net % consumers spending more over the past three months -14% -13% -12% -12% -15% -26% -24% -18% -15% -13% -23% -17% -13% -12% -11% -17% -14% -10% -10% -8% -20% -17% -12% -10% -6% -15% -12% -7% -8% -6% -12% -9% -5% -5% -4% -11% -8% -4% -3% -2% 29% 20% 13% 2% 1% 1% 6% 9% 7% 12% 11% 10% 9% 6% 23% 26% 21% 6% 8% 43% 49% 33% 17% 12% Q1 2012 Q1 2013 Q1 2014 Q1 2015 Q1 2016 Goingout Clothingand footwear Restaurants andhotels Electrical equipment Majorhousehold appliances Holidays (longbreak) Transport Landline/mobile phone,Internet andTV subscriptions Housing(e.g.rent, mortgage) Groceryshopping forfoodand non-alcoholic beverages Utilitybills (e.g.water, electricity,fuels) Alcoholic beverages andtobacco Furnitureand homeware -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% The Deloitte Consumer Tracker – Q1 2016 Spending remains robust
- 12. 11Deloitte Consumer Tracker Confidence pauses as consumers react to wider uncertainty Food & Non-alcoholic beverages Alcoholic beverages, Tobacco & Narcotics Clothing & Footwear Housing, Water & Fuels Furniture, household equip. & repairs Health Transport Communication Recreation & Culture Education Hotels, Cafes & Restaurants Miscellaneous goods & Services Total inflation Chart 10. Inflation (CPI) % change year-on-year Source: ONS 2.1 2 1 -0.5 4.8 10 -0.2 -0.7 1.4 0.9 -0.1 -1.9 1.8 2.1 0.6 -0.2 0.4 0.7 1.4 -0.2 1 3.4 -2.7 -3 0.5 0 Mar 16 Mar 15 The Deloitte Consumer Tracker – Q1 2016 Spending remains robust
- 13. 12Deloitte Consumer Tracker Confidence pauses as consumers react to wider uncertainty Chart 11. Consumer expenditure Annual % change year on year Source: ONS -5% -4% -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% Q42015 Q32015 Q22015 Q12015 Q42014 Q32014 Q22014 Q12014 Q42013 Q32013 Q22013 Q12013 Q42012 Q32012 Q22012 Q12012 Q42011 Q32011 Q22011 Q12011 Q42010 Q32010 Q22010 Q12010 Q42009 Q32009 Q22009 Q12009 Q42008 Q32008 Q22008 Q12008 Q42007 Q32007 Q22007 Q12007 Q42006 Q32006 Q22006 Q12006 The Deloitte Consumer Tracker – Q1 2016 Spending remains robust
- 14. 13Deloitte Consumer Tracker Confidence pauses as consumers react to wider uncertainty Chart 12. Retail sales % change in volume and value year-on-year Source: ONS -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Q1 2015 Q1 2014 Q1 2013 Q1 2012 Q1 2011 Q1 2010 Q1 2009 Q1 2008 Q1 2007 Q1 2006 Q1 2005 Q1 2004 Q1 2003 Q1 2002 Q1 2001 Q1 2000 Q1 1999 Q1 1998 Q1 1997 Q1 2016 Value Volume The Deloitte Consumer Tracker – Q1 2016 Spending remains robust
- 15. 14Deloitte Consumer Tracker Confidence pauses as consumers react to wider uncertainty Chart 13. Expansionary and defensive spending behaviour % UK consumers spending more or less Defensive Expansionary 21% 22% 23% 24% 25% 26% 27% 28% Q1 2016 Q4 2015 Q3 2015 Q2 2015 Q1 2015 Q4 2014 Q3 2014 Q2 2014 Q1 2014 Q4 2013 Q3 2013 Q2 2013 Q1 2013 Q4 2012 Q3 2012 Q2 2012 Q1 2012 Q4 2011 The Deloitte Consumer Tracker – Q1 2016 Spending remains robust
- 16. 15Deloitte Consumer Tracker Confidence pauses as consumers react to wider uncertainty -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% Q42015 Q32015 Q22015 Q12015 Q42014 Q32014 Q22014 Q12014 Q42013 Q32013 Q22013 Q12013 Q42012 Q32012 Q22012 Q12012 Q42011 Q32011 Q22011 Q12011 Q42010 Q32010 Q22010 Q12010 Q42009 Q32009 Q22009 Q12009 Q42008 Q32008 Q22008 Q12008 Q42007 Q32007 Q22007 Q12007 Q42006 Q32006 Q22006 Chart 14. Income vs savings ratio Net % of UK consumers saving more vs UK household year-on-year disposable income growth Savings ratio Disposable income The Deloitte Consumer Tracker – Q1 2016 Income and debt both growing
- 17. 16Deloitte Consumer Tracker Confidence pauses as consumers react to wider uncertainty Chart 15. Consumer confidence in their level of debt Net % of consumers who said their confidence has improved over the last three months -20% -10% 0% Q12016 Q42015 Q32015 Q22015 Q12015 Q42014 Q32014 Q22014 Q12014 Q42013 Q32013 Q22013 Q12013 Q42012 Q32012 Q22012 Q12012 Q42011 Q32011 The Deloitte Consumer Tracker – Q1 2016 Income and debt both growing
- 18. 17Deloitte Consumer Tracker Confidence pauses as consumers react to wider uncertainty Chart 16. Consumer credit Net secured and unsecured lending to individuals (% change year-on-year) UK personal borrowing: Dwellings – Net lending (%YOY) SADL UK consumer credit: Net unsecured lending to individuals (%YOY) -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% Jan2006 Jan2007 Jan2008 Jan2009 Jan2010 Jan2011 Jan2012 Jan2013 Jan2014 Jan2015 Jan2016 The Deloitte Consumer Tracker – Q1 2016 Income and debt both growing
- 19. 18Deloitte Consumer Tracker Confidence pauses as consumers react to wider uncertainty -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Chart 17. Category spending over the next three months Net % of UK consumers spending more by category Q1 2012 Q1 2013 Q1 2014 Q1 2015 Q1 2016 -20% -18% -13% -11% -12% -16% -17% -10% -11% -11% -12% -15% -11% -13% -11% -20% -18% -12% -11% -9% -15% -17% -11% -9% -9% 19% -16% -10% -10% -8% -18% -18% -11% -7% -8% 1% -2% 1% -2% -3% 12% 11% 10% 0% -1% -6% -7% 1% 4% 1% 10% 9% 9% 7% 4% 21% 27% 16% 3% 0% Electrical equipment Goingout (e.g.cinema, theatre,concerts, etc.) Utilitybills Furnitureand homeware Clothingand footwear Groceryshopping forfoodandnon- alcoholicbeverages Alcoholicbeverages andtobacco Majorhousehold appliances Restaurantsand hotels(eatingout andshortbreak) Landline/mobile phone,Internet andcable/TV subscriptions Holidays(longbreak) Housing The Deloitte Consumer Tracker – Q1 2016 Possible headwinds in the coming months
- 20. 19Deloitte Consumer Tracker Confidence pauses as consumers react to wider uncertainty The Deloitte Consumer Tracker – Q1 2016 Possible headwinds in the coming months Chart 18. Consumer indicators: Now and a year ago Old New Change Dec‑Feb 2015 Nov‑Jan 2016 Unemployment 5.6% 5.1% Jan‑15 Jan‑16 Average weekly earnings growth rate 1.7% 2.2% Mar‑15 Mar‑16 Interest rates 0.5% 0.5%
- 21. 20Deloitte Consumer Tracker Confidence pauses as consumers react to wider uncertainty Chart 19. Economic confidence Consumer confidence in the general economic situation over the coming 12 months -60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 15/03/2016 15/11/2015 15/07/2015 15/03/2015 15/11/2014 15/07/2014 15/03/2014 15/11/2013 15/07/2013 15/03/2013 15/11/2012 15/07/2012 15/03/2012 15/11/2011 15/07/2011 15/03/2011 15/11/2010 15/07/2010 15/03/2010 15/11/2009 15/07/2009 15/03/2009 15/11/2008 15/07/2008 15/03/2008 15/11/2007 15/07/2007 15/03/2007 15/11/2006 15/07/2006 15/03/2006 Source: GfK The Deloitte Consumer Tracker – Q1 2016 Possible headwinds in the coming months
- 22. 21Deloitte Consumer Tracker Confidence pauses as consumers react to wider uncertainty Contacts Nigel Wixcey Industry Leader, Consumer Business 020 7303 5007 nigelwixcey@deloitte.co.uk Ian Geddes Lead Partner, UK Retail 020 7303 6519 igeddes@deloitte.co.uk Graham Pickett Lead Partner, UK Travel, Hospitality and Leisure 01293 761232 gcpickett@deloitte.co.uk Authors Ben Perkins Head of Research Consumer Business 020 7307 2207 beperkins@deloitte.co.uk Aino Tan Research Manager Consumer Business 020 7007 4406 aintan@deloitte.co.uk Rebecca Thomson Research Manager Consumer Business 020 7007 0891 rebthomson@deloitte.co.uk The Deloitte Consumer Tracker – Q1 2016 Contacts
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