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Support among the Chief Financial Officers of the UK’s
largest corporates for staying in the EU has narrowed,
mirroring a drift towards greater scepticism on the part of
the UK public in the second half of 2015. A clear majority
of CFOs continue to favour remaining in the EU, but those
expressing unqualified support for membership fell from
74% in the second quarter to 62% in the fourth quarter.
Just 6% of CFOs favour leaving. But 4% did not express an
opinion, and a sizeable minority, 28%, say their decision will
depend on the results of the Prime Minister’s renegotiation
of the UK’s membership of the EU. The outcome of these
discussions is likely to emerge following the European
Council meeting in February. With almost a third, or 32%,
of CFOs undecided or undeclared, an eventual deal could
significantly affect business attitudes to EU membership.
UK CFOs are downbeat about the outlook for growth in
the euro area in 2016 despite a stronger than expected
acceleration in activity seen in the region in 2015.
Indeed, CFOs are more pessimistic about prospects
for the euro area this year than for emerging market
economies. CFO sentiment is most positive on the US
and the UK economies. Nonetheless, doubts about
the pace and sustainability of the global recovery are
weighing on business sentiment. CFO confidence fell
through 2015 and ended the year at its lowest level
since the second quarter of 2012, when the euro area
was in recession.
Q4 2015
The year ahead: A cautious start to 2016
The Deloitte CFO Survey
January 2016
The Deloitte CFO Survey
Chart 1. CFO attitudes to EU membership
% of CFOs who gave the following responses when asked whether it is in the interests of UK businesses for the UK to
remain a member of the EU
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Don't know,
no strong opinion,
prefer not to say
Too early to say:
Depends on results
of renegotiation
NoYes
2015 Q2 2015 Q4
74%
62%
2%
6%
23%
28%
1%
4%
Corporate risk appetite often reflects trends in financial
markets. Thus the decline in the FTSE100 UK equity
index since last summer has been accompanied by a
softening in corporate risk appetite.
The proportion of CFOs who think now is a good time
to take risk dropped to 37% in the fourth quarter, down
from 47% in the third quarter and a peak of 72% in late
2014.
Such large moves in risk appetite feed through
to the way in which companies run their finances. CFOs’
balance sheet strategies have become more defensive,
with a sharper focus on cost control which now tops
CFOs’ list of priorities. Meanwhile CFOs are placing less
weight on growth through acquisitions and on capital
spending.
In recent months uncertainties, especially in emerging
markets, have prompted the Bank of England to push
back the timing of UK interest rate rises. The consensus
in financial markets in mid-December was that the Bank
will start raising interest rates in the second half of 2016.
The Deloitte CFO Survey
The pace of tightening is expected to be gentle, with
three-month interest rates rising by a total of about
100bp, from a current 0.6% to 1.6% at the end of 2018.
The corporate sector seems well positioned to cope with
this sort of trajectory with 64% of CFOs reporting that
a 100bp rate rise would have no effect, or a positive
effect, on their plans for investment or employment.
The surge in CFO confidence and risk appetite that
started in late 2012 went into reverse in 2015. CFOs are
upbeat about prospects for the US and UK economies,
but see more risks elsewhere, especially in emerging
markets and the euro area. CFOs have reacted by cutting
back on risk-taking and sharpening their focus on cost
control. This more defensive stance by the corporate
sector points to slower growth in corporate hiring and
capital expenditure in coming months.
Authors
Ian Stewart
Chief Economist
020 7007 9386
istewart@deloitte.co.uk
Debapratim De
Senior Economic Analyst
020 7303 0888
dde@deloitte.co.uk
Alex Cole
Economic Analyst
020 7007 2947
alecole@deloitte.co.uk
Contacts
Ian Stewart
Chief Economist
020 7007 9386
istewart@deloitte.co.uk
Richard Muschamp
CFO Programme Leader
020 7007 0724
rmuschamp@deloitte.co.uk
For current and past copies of the
survey, historical data and coverage of
the survey in the media and elsewhere,
please visit:
www.deloitte.co.uk/cfosurvey
The Deloitte CFO Survey
Public support for the UK’s
membership of the EU fell in
the second half of 2015.
Between the end of May and
the beginning of July four
major opinion polls gave the
‘In’ camp an average lead of
18 percentage points. In the
fourth quarter the same four
polls showed the lead had
been reduced to six percentage
points.
This decline in public support
for the EU has coincided with
a narrowing in support among
CFOs.
Europe
Chart 2. UK public opinion polls on EU membership
Mid-year polling (May to July)
    In Out Don’t Know Lead (In)
ICM 31 May 47% 33% 20% +14
Ipsos Mori 14-16 Jun 66% 22% 12% +44
YouGov 19-24 Jun 44% 38% 18% +6
Survation 29 Jun-6 Jul 45% 37% 18% +8
Average   51% 33% 17% +18
End-year polling (October to December)    
Ipsos Mori 17-19 Oct 52% 36% 12% +16
Survation 16-17 Nov 43% 40% 18% +3
YouGov 19-24 Nov 40% 38% 22% +2
ICM 6 Dec 43% 39% 17% +4
Average   45% 38% 17% +6
CFOs are positive about prospects for growth in the US and the UK in 2016.
But CFOs are strikingly downbeat about the euro area. Levels of pessimism about euro area growth in 2016 are
greater than for emerging markets’ growth.
Chart 3. Growth prospects
Net % of CFOs who are optimistic about prospects for growth in the following regions in 2016
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
USUKChinaJapanEmerging markets
including China*
Euro areaEmerging markets
excluding China*
-25%
-18%
-27%
-6%
68%
82%
-5%
*GDP-weighted estimate based on CFO readings for emerging markets excluding China, and for China
Europe
Although CFOs are negative about prospects for the euro area, activity in the region picked up through 2015,
and at a rather faster rate than expected.
German business confidence ended 2015 at higher levels than at the beginning of the year. Meanwhile US
manufacturing activity dropped to a six-and-a-half year low in November.
Europe
Chart 4. German and US business confidence
German Ifo Business Climate Index and US ISM Purchasing Managers Index (Manufacturing)
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
Dec
15
Dec
14
Dec
13
Dec
12
Dec
11
Dec
10
Dec
09
Dec
08
Dec
07
Dec
06
Dec
05
US ISM (RHS)
German IFO (LHS)
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Other than a brief, post-election bounce, corporate risk appetite has been trending down for over a year. Just 37% of
CFOs say that now is a good time to take greater risk onto their balance sheets, down from a peak of 72% in Q3 2014.
Risk appetite wanes
Chart 5. Risk appetite
% of CFOs who think this is a good time to take greater risk onto their balance sheets
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
15
Q3
15
Q1
14
Q3
14
Q1
13
Q3
13
Q1
12
Q3
12
Q1
11
Q3
11
Q1
10
Q3
10
Q1
09
Q3
09
Q1
08
Q3
08
Q1
2007
Q3
The fall in corporate risk appetite has been mirrored by a decline in investor risk appetite.
The second half of 2015 saw a rise in risk aversion among investors, as they moved from riskier assets including
equities into safer government bonds.
Risk appetite wanes
Chart 6. CFO and investor risk appetites
% of CFOs who think this is a good time to take greater risk onto their balance sheets (LHS) and change in UK equities
over bonds (RHS)
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
Sep
15
Jan
15
Sep
11
Sep
13
Jan
11
Sep
09
Jan
09
May
08
Sep
07
Jan
07
% CFOs saying now is a
good time to take risk (RHS)
Equities vs bonds (LHS)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Jan
13
May
12
Mar
10
Mar
14
Sentiment among large corporates has declined for the third consecutive quarter. CFO optimism is at its lowest level
since the second quarter of 2012, when the euro area was in recession and gripped by concerns that the single
currency might break up.
Risk appetite wanes
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
MoreoptimisticLessoptimistic
Chart 7. Business confidence
Net % of CFOs who are more optimistic about financial prospects for their company now than three months ago
15
Q4
15
Q1
14
Q4
14
Q1
13
Q4
13
Q1
12
Q4
12
Q1
11
Q4
11
Q1
10
Q4
10
Q1
09
Q4
09
Q1
08
Q4
08
Q1
07
Q4
2007
Q3
For the first time in a year CFOs rate
cost reduction as their number one
priority for the next 12 months.
CFOs are also placing greater
emphasis on other defensive
strategies such as increasing cash
flow, disposing of assets and
reducing leverage.
In contrast, CFOs are placing
rather less emphasis on growth
strategies such as introducing new
products and services, expanding
by acquisition and increasing capital
expenditure.
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Reducing leverage
Disposing of assets
Raising dividends or
share buybacks
Increasing capital expenditure
Expanding by acquisition
Increasing cash flow
Introducing new products/
services or expanding
into new markets
Reducing costs
2015 Q32015 Q4
44%
34%
38%
39%
37%
34%
19%
17%
22%
19%
14%
8%
13%
9%
12%
10%
Chart 8. Corporate priorities in the next 12 months
% of CFOs who rated each of the following as a strong priority for their business
in the next 12 months
Focus on cost control
The increased focus on defensive
strategies means that CFOs are more
defensive than at any time in the last
three years.
19%
21%
23%
25%
27%
29%
31%
33%
35%
37%
39%
Chart 9. CFO priorities: Expansionary vs. defensive strategies
Defensive
strategies
Expansionary
strategies
2015
Q4
2015
Q1
2014
Q4
2014
Q1
2013
Q4
2013
Q1
2012
Q4
2012
Q1
2011
Q4
2011
Q1
2010
Q3
Focus on cost control
Arithmetic average of the % of CFOs who rated expansionary and defensive strategies as
a strong priority for their business in the next 12 months.
Expansionary strategies are introducing new products/services or expanding into new
markets, expanding by acquisition and increasing capital expenditure.
Defensive strategies are reducing costs, reducing leverage and increasing cash flow.
Inflation and interest rates
CFOs’ expectations for inflation
fell between the third and fourth
quarters of 2015.
A narrow majority (51%) now expect
inflation to remain below 1.5% in
two-years’ time.
The fall in CFOs’ expectations for
inflation coincided with downgrades
to both market and Bank of England
forecasts for inflation in 2016.
Chart 10. CFO inflation expectations
% of CFOs who expect consumer price inflation in the UK to lie between the
following ranges in two-years’ time
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Above 2.5%1.6%-2.5%0-1.5%Below zero
2015 Q3 2015 Q4
39%
1%
51%
5% 4%
56%
44%
Inflation and interest rates
As inflation forecasts have fallen so, too, have financial market expectations for future interest rates.
Expectations for UK interest rates at the end of 2016, 2017 and 2018 are now lower than they were in the summer
of 2015.
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
Chart 11. Financial market expectations for UK interest rates
UK market rate expectations for end-year three-month interest rates
at Dec ’18 1.6%
at Dec ’17 1.3%
at Dec ’16 0.9%
Now 0.6%
Dec
15
Nov
15
Oct
15
Sep
15
Aug
15
Jul
15
Jun
15
Inflation and interest rates
The corporate sector seems fairly well positioned to cope with the cumulative 100bp rate rise priced in by financial
markets in the next three years.
Almost two-thirds of CFOs say that interest rates would have to rise by more than 100 basis points before their
businesses cut planned investment or employment.
Chart 12. Effect of rate rises on corporate spending
% of CFOs reporting that the Bank of England’s base rate could rise by the following amounts before their business
responds by cutting planned investment or employment
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
A rise in
interest
rates
would be
good for
my business
More than
300 basis
points
300 basis
points
200 basis
points
100 basis
points
50 basis
points
25 basis
points
8%
2%
26%
21%
10%
24%
10%
36% say rate rises of
≤100bp would affect
investment/jobs
64% say rates
would have to
rise by >100bp to
affect investment/
jobs
Weaker margins
Expectations for revenue and margin growth dipped in the second half of 2015.
While a majority of CFOs still expect UK corporate revenues to increase over the next 12 months, the outlook for
revenues and margins is at its weakest for two-and-a-half years.
-70%
-50%
-30%
-10%
10%
30%
50%
70%
90%
15
Q4
15
Q3
15
Q2
15
Q1
14
Q4
14
Q3
14
Q2
14
Q1
13
Q4
13
Q3
13
Q2
13
Q1
12
Q4
12
Q3
12
Q2
12
Q1
11
Q4
11
Q3
11
Q2
11
Q1
10
Q4
2010
Q3
IncreaseDecrease
Chart 13. Outlook for corporate revenues and margins
Net % of CFOs who expect UK corporates’ revenues and margins to increase over the next 12 months
Revenues
Operating margins
Weaker margins
Our panel of large corporates continues to enjoy good access to credit.
The cost of credit is not far off its lowest reported levels, while credit availability is near to all-time highs.
-100%
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
CreditiscostlyCreditischeap
CreditiscostlyCreditischeap
Chart 14. Cost and availability of credit
Net % of CFOs reporting credit is costly and credit is easily available
-100%
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
15
Q4
15
Q1
14
Q4
14
Q1
13
Q4
13
Q1
12
Q4
12
Q1
11
Q4
11
Q1
10
Q4
10
Q1
09
Q4
09
Q1
08
Q4
08
Q1
07
Q4
2007
Q3
Cost of credit
(LHS)
Availability of credit
(RHS)
Weaker margins
Bank borrowing remains the most attractive source of funding for CFOs, with a significant majority (86%) viewing it
as an attractive source of external funding.
As has been the case for the last five years, CFOs view equity issuance as a less attractive source of funding than
bond issuance or bank borrowing.
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
AttractiveUnattractive
Chart 15. Favoured source of corporate funding
Net % of CFOs reporting the following sources of funding as attractive
Bank
borrowing
Equity
issuance
Bond
issuance
15
Q4
15
Q1
14
Q4
14
Q1
13
Q4
13
Q1
12
Q4
12
Q1
11
Q4
11
Q1
10
Q4
10
Q1
09
Q4
09
Q1
08
Q4
08
Q1
07
Q4
2007
Q3
The macroeconomic backdrop to the Deloitte CFO
Survey Q4 2015
The International Monetary Fund cut its forecast for
global growth in 2015 and 2016. Activity in emerging
markets continued to disappoint, with economists
nudging down their forecasts for growth in most
emerging economies. Growth in the advanced
economies continued and broadened, though indicators
of industrial activity have generally softened, partly
as a result of weaker export market demand. After a
short-lived market rally in October, equities, especially
those in emerging markets, lost value towards the end
of the year. In early December the oil price fell below
$40, to the lowest level in seven years; metals prices
also softened. Inflation remained close to zero in the
US, the euro area and the UK and inflation forecasts for
2016 continued to decline.
The European Central Bank’s announcement of a
further round of Quantitative Easing fell short of market
expectations, though the ECB’s President subsequently
reassured markets that there were “no limits” to the
tools the ECB could use to fight deflation. As widely
anticipated the US Federal Reserve raised interest rates
on 16th December, the first time US interest rates have
been increased in almost ten years.
CFO Survey: Economic and financial context
CFO Survey: Economic and financial context
-7%
-5%
-3%
-1%
1%
3%
5%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
UK GDP growth: Actual and forecast (%)
Quarter-on-
quarter growth
Year-on-year
growth
Source: ONS, consensus forecasts from The Economist and Deloitte calculations
Forecasts
CFO Survey: Economic and financial context
Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
5500
6000
6500
7000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
FTSE 100 price index
Public
Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream
Private
Q2
2015
Q3
2014
Q4
2013
Q4
2012
Q4
2011
Q4
2010
Q4
2009
Q4
2008
Q4
2007
Q1
2007
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
UK private and public sector job growth (thousands)
CFO Survey: Economic and financial context
CFO Survey: Economic and financial context
Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
UK annual CPI inflation (%)
Two-chart summary of key survey messages
CFO attitudes to EU membership
% of CFOs who gave the following responses when asked
whether it is in the interests of UK businesses for the UK to
remain a member of the EU
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Don’t know,
no strong
opinion,
prefer not
to say
Too early
to say:
Depends on
results of
renegotiation
NoYes
2015 Q2 2015 Q4
74%
62%
2%
6%
23%
28%
1% 4% 19%
21%
23%
25%
27%
29%
31%
33%
35%
37%
39%
CFO priorities: Expansionary vs. defensive strategies
Defensive
strategies
Expansionary
strategies
15
Q4
15
Q1
14
Q4
14
Q1
13
Q4
13
Q1
12
Q4
12
Q1
11
Q4
11
Q1
10
Q3
Deloitte refers to one or more of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited (“DTTL”), a UK private company limited by guarantee, and its
network of member firms, each of which is a legally separate and independent entity. Please see www.deloitte.co.uk/about for a
detailed description of the legal structure of DTTL and its member firms.
Deloitte LLP is the United Kingdom member firm of DTTL.
This publication has been written in general terms and therefore cannot be relied on to cover specific situations; application of the
principles set out will depend upon the particular circumstances involved and we recommend that you obtain professional advice
before acting or refraining from acting on any of the contents of this publication. Deloitte LLP would be pleased to advise readers on
how to apply the principles set out in this publication to their specific circumstances. Deloitte LLP accepts no duty of care or liability
for any loss occasioned to any person acting or refraining from action as a result of any material in this publication.
© 2016 Deloitte LLP. All rights reserved.
Deloitte LLP is a limited liability partnership registered in England and Wales with registered number OC303675 and its registered
office at 2 New Street Square, London EC4A 3BZ, United Kingdom. Tel: +44 (0) 20 7936 3000 Fax: +44 (0) 20 7583 1198.
Designed and produced by The Creative Studio at Deloitte, London. J3512
About the survey
This is the 34th
quarterly survey of Chief Financial Officers and Group Finance Directors of major companies in the UK.
The 2015 fourth quarter survey took place between 11th November and 2nd December. 137 CFOs participated, including the
CFOs of 24 FTSE 100 and 62 FTSE 250 companies. The rest were CFOs of other UK-listed companies, large private companies
and UK subsidiaries of major companies listed overseas. The combined market value of the 99 UK-listed companies surveyed is
£374 billion, or approximately 18% of the UK quoted equity market.
The Deloitte CFO Survey is the only survey of major corporate users of capital that gauges attitudes to valuations, risk and
financing. To join our panel of CFO respondents and for additional copies of this report, please contact Anthea Neagle on
020 7303 0116 or email aneagle@deloitte.co.uk

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The Deloitte CFO Survey: 2015 Q4 A cautious start to 2016

  • 1. Support among the Chief Financial Officers of the UK’s largest corporates for staying in the EU has narrowed, mirroring a drift towards greater scepticism on the part of the UK public in the second half of 2015. A clear majority of CFOs continue to favour remaining in the EU, but those expressing unqualified support for membership fell from 74% in the second quarter to 62% in the fourth quarter. Just 6% of CFOs favour leaving. But 4% did not express an opinion, and a sizeable minority, 28%, say their decision will depend on the results of the Prime Minister’s renegotiation of the UK’s membership of the EU. The outcome of these discussions is likely to emerge following the European Council meeting in February. With almost a third, or 32%, of CFOs undecided or undeclared, an eventual deal could significantly affect business attitudes to EU membership. UK CFOs are downbeat about the outlook for growth in the euro area in 2016 despite a stronger than expected acceleration in activity seen in the region in 2015. Indeed, CFOs are more pessimistic about prospects for the euro area this year than for emerging market economies. CFO sentiment is most positive on the US and the UK economies. Nonetheless, doubts about the pace and sustainability of the global recovery are weighing on business sentiment. CFO confidence fell through 2015 and ended the year at its lowest level since the second quarter of 2012, when the euro area was in recession. Q4 2015 The year ahead: A cautious start to 2016 The Deloitte CFO Survey January 2016
  • 2. The Deloitte CFO Survey Chart 1. CFO attitudes to EU membership % of CFOs who gave the following responses when asked whether it is in the interests of UK businesses for the UK to remain a member of the EU 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Don't know, no strong opinion, prefer not to say Too early to say: Depends on results of renegotiation NoYes 2015 Q2 2015 Q4 74% 62% 2% 6% 23% 28% 1% 4%
  • 3. Corporate risk appetite often reflects trends in financial markets. Thus the decline in the FTSE100 UK equity index since last summer has been accompanied by a softening in corporate risk appetite. The proportion of CFOs who think now is a good time to take risk dropped to 37% in the fourth quarter, down from 47% in the third quarter and a peak of 72% in late 2014. Such large moves in risk appetite feed through to the way in which companies run their finances. CFOs’ balance sheet strategies have become more defensive, with a sharper focus on cost control which now tops CFOs’ list of priorities. Meanwhile CFOs are placing less weight on growth through acquisitions and on capital spending. In recent months uncertainties, especially in emerging markets, have prompted the Bank of England to push back the timing of UK interest rate rises. The consensus in financial markets in mid-December was that the Bank will start raising interest rates in the second half of 2016. The Deloitte CFO Survey The pace of tightening is expected to be gentle, with three-month interest rates rising by a total of about 100bp, from a current 0.6% to 1.6% at the end of 2018. The corporate sector seems well positioned to cope with this sort of trajectory with 64% of CFOs reporting that a 100bp rate rise would have no effect, or a positive effect, on their plans for investment or employment. The surge in CFO confidence and risk appetite that started in late 2012 went into reverse in 2015. CFOs are upbeat about prospects for the US and UK economies, but see more risks elsewhere, especially in emerging markets and the euro area. CFOs have reacted by cutting back on risk-taking and sharpening their focus on cost control. This more defensive stance by the corporate sector points to slower growth in corporate hiring and capital expenditure in coming months.
  • 4. Authors Ian Stewart Chief Economist 020 7007 9386 istewart@deloitte.co.uk Debapratim De Senior Economic Analyst 020 7303 0888 dde@deloitte.co.uk Alex Cole Economic Analyst 020 7007 2947 alecole@deloitte.co.uk Contacts Ian Stewart Chief Economist 020 7007 9386 istewart@deloitte.co.uk Richard Muschamp CFO Programme Leader 020 7007 0724 rmuschamp@deloitte.co.uk For current and past copies of the survey, historical data and coverage of the survey in the media and elsewhere, please visit: www.deloitte.co.uk/cfosurvey The Deloitte CFO Survey
  • 5. Public support for the UK’s membership of the EU fell in the second half of 2015. Between the end of May and the beginning of July four major opinion polls gave the ‘In’ camp an average lead of 18 percentage points. In the fourth quarter the same four polls showed the lead had been reduced to six percentage points. This decline in public support for the EU has coincided with a narrowing in support among CFOs. Europe Chart 2. UK public opinion polls on EU membership Mid-year polling (May to July)     In Out Don’t Know Lead (In) ICM 31 May 47% 33% 20% +14 Ipsos Mori 14-16 Jun 66% 22% 12% +44 YouGov 19-24 Jun 44% 38% 18% +6 Survation 29 Jun-6 Jul 45% 37% 18% +8 Average   51% 33% 17% +18 End-year polling (October to December)     Ipsos Mori 17-19 Oct 52% 36% 12% +16 Survation 16-17 Nov 43% 40% 18% +3 YouGov 19-24 Nov 40% 38% 22% +2 ICM 6 Dec 43% 39% 17% +4 Average   45% 38% 17% +6
  • 6. CFOs are positive about prospects for growth in the US and the UK in 2016. But CFOs are strikingly downbeat about the euro area. Levels of pessimism about euro area growth in 2016 are greater than for emerging markets’ growth. Chart 3. Growth prospects Net % of CFOs who are optimistic about prospects for growth in the following regions in 2016 -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% USUKChinaJapanEmerging markets including China* Euro areaEmerging markets excluding China* -25% -18% -27% -6% 68% 82% -5% *GDP-weighted estimate based on CFO readings for emerging markets excluding China, and for China Europe
  • 7. Although CFOs are negative about prospects for the euro area, activity in the region picked up through 2015, and at a rather faster rate than expected. German business confidence ended 2015 at higher levels than at the beginning of the year. Meanwhile US manufacturing activity dropped to a six-and-a-half year low in November. Europe Chart 4. German and US business confidence German Ifo Business Climate Index and US ISM Purchasing Managers Index (Manufacturing) 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 120 Dec 15 Dec 14 Dec 13 Dec 12 Dec 11 Dec 10 Dec 09 Dec 08 Dec 07 Dec 06 Dec 05 US ISM (RHS) German IFO (LHS) 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65
  • 8. Other than a brief, post-election bounce, corporate risk appetite has been trending down for over a year. Just 37% of CFOs say that now is a good time to take greater risk onto their balance sheets, down from a peak of 72% in Q3 2014. Risk appetite wanes Chart 5. Risk appetite % of CFOs who think this is a good time to take greater risk onto their balance sheets 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 15 Q3 15 Q1 14 Q3 14 Q1 13 Q3 13 Q1 12 Q3 12 Q1 11 Q3 11 Q1 10 Q3 10 Q1 09 Q3 09 Q1 08 Q3 08 Q1 2007 Q3
  • 9. The fall in corporate risk appetite has been mirrored by a decline in investor risk appetite. The second half of 2015 saw a rise in risk aversion among investors, as they moved from riskier assets including equities into safer government bonds. Risk appetite wanes Chart 6. CFO and investor risk appetites % of CFOs who think this is a good time to take greater risk onto their balance sheets (LHS) and change in UK equities over bonds (RHS) 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 Sep 15 Jan 15 Sep 11 Sep 13 Jan 11 Sep 09 Jan 09 May 08 Sep 07 Jan 07 % CFOs saying now is a good time to take risk (RHS) Equities vs bonds (LHS) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Jan 13 May 12 Mar 10 Mar 14
  • 10. Sentiment among large corporates has declined for the third consecutive quarter. CFO optimism is at its lowest level since the second quarter of 2012, when the euro area was in recession and gripped by concerns that the single currency might break up. Risk appetite wanes -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% MoreoptimisticLessoptimistic Chart 7. Business confidence Net % of CFOs who are more optimistic about financial prospects for their company now than three months ago 15 Q4 15 Q1 14 Q4 14 Q1 13 Q4 13 Q1 12 Q4 12 Q1 11 Q4 11 Q1 10 Q4 10 Q1 09 Q4 09 Q1 08 Q4 08 Q1 07 Q4 2007 Q3
  • 11. For the first time in a year CFOs rate cost reduction as their number one priority for the next 12 months. CFOs are also placing greater emphasis on other defensive strategies such as increasing cash flow, disposing of assets and reducing leverage. In contrast, CFOs are placing rather less emphasis on growth strategies such as introducing new products and services, expanding by acquisition and increasing capital expenditure. 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Reducing leverage Disposing of assets Raising dividends or share buybacks Increasing capital expenditure Expanding by acquisition Increasing cash flow Introducing new products/ services or expanding into new markets Reducing costs 2015 Q32015 Q4 44% 34% 38% 39% 37% 34% 19% 17% 22% 19% 14% 8% 13% 9% 12% 10% Chart 8. Corporate priorities in the next 12 months % of CFOs who rated each of the following as a strong priority for their business in the next 12 months Focus on cost control
  • 12. The increased focus on defensive strategies means that CFOs are more defensive than at any time in the last three years. 19% 21% 23% 25% 27% 29% 31% 33% 35% 37% 39% Chart 9. CFO priorities: Expansionary vs. defensive strategies Defensive strategies Expansionary strategies 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2012 Q4 2012 Q1 2011 Q4 2011 Q1 2010 Q3 Focus on cost control Arithmetic average of the % of CFOs who rated expansionary and defensive strategies as a strong priority for their business in the next 12 months. Expansionary strategies are introducing new products/services or expanding into new markets, expanding by acquisition and increasing capital expenditure. Defensive strategies are reducing costs, reducing leverage and increasing cash flow.
  • 13. Inflation and interest rates CFOs’ expectations for inflation fell between the third and fourth quarters of 2015. A narrow majority (51%) now expect inflation to remain below 1.5% in two-years’ time. The fall in CFOs’ expectations for inflation coincided with downgrades to both market and Bank of England forecasts for inflation in 2016. Chart 10. CFO inflation expectations % of CFOs who expect consumer price inflation in the UK to lie between the following ranges in two-years’ time 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Above 2.5%1.6%-2.5%0-1.5%Below zero 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 39% 1% 51% 5% 4% 56% 44%
  • 14. Inflation and interest rates As inflation forecasts have fallen so, too, have financial market expectations for future interest rates. Expectations for UK interest rates at the end of 2016, 2017 and 2018 are now lower than they were in the summer of 2015. 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 Chart 11. Financial market expectations for UK interest rates UK market rate expectations for end-year three-month interest rates at Dec ’18 1.6% at Dec ’17 1.3% at Dec ’16 0.9% Now 0.6% Dec 15 Nov 15 Oct 15 Sep 15 Aug 15 Jul 15 Jun 15
  • 15. Inflation and interest rates The corporate sector seems fairly well positioned to cope with the cumulative 100bp rate rise priced in by financial markets in the next three years. Almost two-thirds of CFOs say that interest rates would have to rise by more than 100 basis points before their businesses cut planned investment or employment. Chart 12. Effect of rate rises on corporate spending % of CFOs reporting that the Bank of England’s base rate could rise by the following amounts before their business responds by cutting planned investment or employment 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% A rise in interest rates would be good for my business More than 300 basis points 300 basis points 200 basis points 100 basis points 50 basis points 25 basis points 8% 2% 26% 21% 10% 24% 10% 36% say rate rises of ≤100bp would affect investment/jobs 64% say rates would have to rise by >100bp to affect investment/ jobs
  • 16. Weaker margins Expectations for revenue and margin growth dipped in the second half of 2015. While a majority of CFOs still expect UK corporate revenues to increase over the next 12 months, the outlook for revenues and margins is at its weakest for two-and-a-half years. -70% -50% -30% -10% 10% 30% 50% 70% 90% 15 Q4 15 Q3 15 Q2 15 Q1 14 Q4 14 Q3 14 Q2 14 Q1 13 Q4 13 Q3 13 Q2 13 Q1 12 Q4 12 Q3 12 Q2 12 Q1 11 Q4 11 Q3 11 Q2 11 Q1 10 Q4 2010 Q3 IncreaseDecrease Chart 13. Outlook for corporate revenues and margins Net % of CFOs who expect UK corporates’ revenues and margins to increase over the next 12 months Revenues Operating margins
  • 17. Weaker margins Our panel of large corporates continues to enjoy good access to credit. The cost of credit is not far off its lowest reported levels, while credit availability is near to all-time highs. -100% -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% CreditiscostlyCreditischeap CreditiscostlyCreditischeap Chart 14. Cost and availability of credit Net % of CFOs reporting credit is costly and credit is easily available -100% -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 15 Q4 15 Q1 14 Q4 14 Q1 13 Q4 13 Q1 12 Q4 12 Q1 11 Q4 11 Q1 10 Q4 10 Q1 09 Q4 09 Q1 08 Q4 08 Q1 07 Q4 2007 Q3 Cost of credit (LHS) Availability of credit (RHS)
  • 18. Weaker margins Bank borrowing remains the most attractive source of funding for CFOs, with a significant majority (86%) viewing it as an attractive source of external funding. As has been the case for the last five years, CFOs view equity issuance as a less attractive source of funding than bond issuance or bank borrowing. -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% AttractiveUnattractive Chart 15. Favoured source of corporate funding Net % of CFOs reporting the following sources of funding as attractive Bank borrowing Equity issuance Bond issuance 15 Q4 15 Q1 14 Q4 14 Q1 13 Q4 13 Q1 12 Q4 12 Q1 11 Q4 11 Q1 10 Q4 10 Q1 09 Q4 09 Q1 08 Q4 08 Q1 07 Q4 2007 Q3
  • 19. The macroeconomic backdrop to the Deloitte CFO Survey Q4 2015 The International Monetary Fund cut its forecast for global growth in 2015 and 2016. Activity in emerging markets continued to disappoint, with economists nudging down their forecasts for growth in most emerging economies. Growth in the advanced economies continued and broadened, though indicators of industrial activity have generally softened, partly as a result of weaker export market demand. After a short-lived market rally in October, equities, especially those in emerging markets, lost value towards the end of the year. In early December the oil price fell below $40, to the lowest level in seven years; metals prices also softened. Inflation remained close to zero in the US, the euro area and the UK and inflation forecasts for 2016 continued to decline. The European Central Bank’s announcement of a further round of Quantitative Easing fell short of market expectations, though the ECB’s President subsequently reassured markets that there were “no limits” to the tools the ECB could use to fight deflation. As widely anticipated the US Federal Reserve raised interest rates on 16th December, the first time US interest rates have been increased in almost ten years. CFO Survey: Economic and financial context
  • 20. CFO Survey: Economic and financial context -7% -5% -3% -1% 1% 3% 5% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 UK GDP growth: Actual and forecast (%) Quarter-on- quarter growth Year-on-year growth Source: ONS, consensus forecasts from The Economist and Deloitte calculations Forecasts
  • 21. CFO Survey: Economic and financial context Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000 5500 6000 6500 7000 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 FTSE 100 price index
  • 22. Public Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream Private Q2 2015 Q3 2014 Q4 2013 Q4 2012 Q4 2011 Q4 2010 Q4 2009 Q4 2008 Q4 2007 Q1 2007 -400 -300 -200 -100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 UK private and public sector job growth (thousands) CFO Survey: Economic and financial context
  • 23. CFO Survey: Economic and financial context Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 UK annual CPI inflation (%)
  • 24. Two-chart summary of key survey messages CFO attitudes to EU membership % of CFOs who gave the following responses when asked whether it is in the interests of UK businesses for the UK to remain a member of the EU 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Don’t know, no strong opinion, prefer not to say Too early to say: Depends on results of renegotiation NoYes 2015 Q2 2015 Q4 74% 62% 2% 6% 23% 28% 1% 4% 19% 21% 23% 25% 27% 29% 31% 33% 35% 37% 39% CFO priorities: Expansionary vs. defensive strategies Defensive strategies Expansionary strategies 15 Q4 15 Q1 14 Q4 14 Q1 13 Q4 13 Q1 12 Q4 12 Q1 11 Q4 11 Q1 10 Q3
  • 25. Deloitte refers to one or more of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited (“DTTL”), a UK private company limited by guarantee, and its network of member firms, each of which is a legally separate and independent entity. Please see www.deloitte.co.uk/about for a detailed description of the legal structure of DTTL and its member firms. Deloitte LLP is the United Kingdom member firm of DTTL. This publication has been written in general terms and therefore cannot be relied on to cover specific situations; application of the principles set out will depend upon the particular circumstances involved and we recommend that you obtain professional advice before acting or refraining from acting on any of the contents of this publication. Deloitte LLP would be pleased to advise readers on how to apply the principles set out in this publication to their specific circumstances. Deloitte LLP accepts no duty of care or liability for any loss occasioned to any person acting or refraining from action as a result of any material in this publication. © 2016 Deloitte LLP. All rights reserved. Deloitte LLP is a limited liability partnership registered in England and Wales with registered number OC303675 and its registered office at 2 New Street Square, London EC4A 3BZ, United Kingdom. Tel: +44 (0) 20 7936 3000 Fax: +44 (0) 20 7583 1198. Designed and produced by The Creative Studio at Deloitte, London. J3512 About the survey This is the 34th quarterly survey of Chief Financial Officers and Group Finance Directors of major companies in the UK. The 2015 fourth quarter survey took place between 11th November and 2nd December. 137 CFOs participated, including the CFOs of 24 FTSE 100 and 62 FTSE 250 companies. The rest were CFOs of other UK-listed companies, large private companies and UK subsidiaries of major companies listed overseas. The combined market value of the 99 UK-listed companies surveyed is £374 billion, or approximately 18% of the UK quoted equity market. The Deloitte CFO Survey is the only survey of major corporate users of capital that gauges attitudes to valuations, risk and financing. To join our panel of CFO respondents and for additional copies of this report, please contact Anthea Neagle on 020 7303 0116 or email aneagle@deloitte.co.uk